Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

A simulation study of the standard design, the rolling six design, the CRM, and the modified CRM in Phase I clinical trials

The Phase I clinical trial is considered the "first in human" study in medical research to examine the toxicity of a new agent. It determines the maximum tolerable dose (MTD) of a new agent, i.e., the highest dose in which toxicity is still acceptable. Several phase I clinical trial designs have been proposed in the past 30 years. The well known standard method, so called the 3+3 design, is widely accepted by clinicians since it is the easiest to implement and it does not need a statistical calculation. Continual reassessment method (CRM), a design uses Bayesian method, has been rising in popularity in the last two decades. Several variants of the CRM design have also been suggested in numerous statistical literatures. Rolling six is a new method introduced in pediatric oncology in 2008, which claims to shorten the trial duration as compared to the 3+3 design. The goal of the present research was to simulate clinical trials and compare these phase I clinical trial designs. Patient population was created by discrete event simulation (DES) method. The characteristics of the patients were generated by several distributions with the parameters derived from a historical phase I clinical trial data review. Patients were then selected and enrolled in clinical trials, each of which uses the 3+3 design, the rolling six, or the CRM design. Five scenarios of dose-toxicity relationship were used to compare the performance of the phase I clinical trial designs. One thousand trials were simulated per phase I clinical trial design per dose-toxicity scenario. The results showed the rolling six design was not superior to the 3+3 design in terms of trial duration. The time to trial completion was comparable between the rolling six and the 3+3 design. However, they both shorten the duration as compared to the two CRM designs. Both CRMs were superior to the 3+3 design and the rolling six in accuracy of MTD estimation. The 3+3 design and rolling six tended to assign more patients to undesired lower dose levels. The toxicities were slightly greater in the CRMs.^

Automatic quantitation of multiple sclerosis lesions on MR images

A two-pronged approach for the automatic quantitation of multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions on magnetic resonance (MR) images has been developed. This method includes the design and use of a pulse sequence for improved lesion-to-tissue contrast (LTC) and seeks to identify and minimize the sources of false lesion classifications in segmented images. The new pulse sequence, referred to as AFFIRMATIVE (Attenuation of Fluid by Fast Inversion Recovery with MAgnetization Transfer Imaging with Variable Echoes), improves the LTC, relative to spin-echo images, by combining Fluid-Attenuated Inversion Recovery (FLAIR) and Magnetization Transfer Contrast (MTC). In addition to acquiring fast FLAIR/MTC images, the AFFIRMATIVE sequence simultaneously acquires fast spin-echo (FSE) images for spatial registration of images, which is necessary for accurate lesion quantitation. Flow has been found to be a primary source of false lesion classifications. Therefore, an imaging protocol and reconstruction methods are developed to generate "flow images" which depict both coherent (vascular) and incoherent (CSF) flow. An automatic technique is designed for the removal of extra-meningeal tissues, since these are known to be sources of false lesion classifications. A retrospective, three-dimensional (3D) registration algorithm is implemented to correct for patient movement which may have occurred between AFFIRMATIVE and flow imaging scans. Following application of these pre-processing steps, images are segmented into white matter, gray matter, cerebrospinal fluid, and MS lesions based on AFFIRMATIVE and flow images using an automatic algorithm. All algorithms are seamlessly integrated into a single MR image analysis software package. Lesion quantitation has been performed on images from 15 patient volunteers. The total processing time is less than two hours per patient on a SPARCstation 20. The automated nature of this approach should provide an objective means of monitoring the progression, stabilization, and/or regression of MS lesions in large-scale, multi-center clinical trials. ^

Sibling relationships in the family of a child with a burn injury

Purpose. Understanding siblings' experiences after a major childhood burn injury was the purpose of this mixed method, qualitative dominant study. The following research questions guided this project: How do siblings describe the impact of a major childhood burn injury experience? How do sibling relationship factors of warmth/closeness, relative status/power, conflict, and rivalry further clarify their relationship and their experience after a major burn injury? ^ Methods. A mixed method, qualitative dominant, design was implemented to understand the sibling experiences in a family with a child suffering from a major burn injury. Informants were selected from patients with childhood burn injuries attending the reconstructive clinic at a Gulf coast children's specialty hospital. The qualitative portion used the life story method, a narrative process, to portray the long-term impact on sibling relationships. A "case" represents a family unit and could be composed of one or multiple family members. Participants from 22 cases (N = 40 participants) were interviewed. Interviews were conducted in person and via telephone. The quantitative portion, or the embedded part of this mixed method design, used the Sibling Relationship Questionnaire Revised (SRQ-R) to conduct an additional structured interview and acquire scoring data. It was postulated that the SRQ-R would provide another perspective on the sibling experience and expand the qualitative data analysis. Thematic analysis was implemented on the qualitative interview data including the qualitative data from the interviews structured on the SRQ-R. Additionally, scores on the SRQ-R were tabulated to further describe the cases. ^ Results. The overall thematic pattern for the sibling relationship in families having a child with a major burn injury was that of normalization. Areas of normalization as well as the process of adjustment were the major themes. Areas of normalization were found in play and other activities, in school and work, and in family relations with their siblings and their parents. The process of adjustment in the sibling relationship was described as varied, involved school and work re-entry, and might even change their life perspective. Further analysis included an examination of the cases in which more than one person were interviewed and completed the SRQ-R. Participants from five ( n = 11) of six cases (n = 14), scored above 3.0 on the five-point scale on the Warmth/Closeness construct, indicating they perceived the sibling relationship as close. Five participants scored high on the Conflict construct and four participants scored high on the Rivalry construct. Finally, Relative Status/Power was low or negative in the six cases (n = 13). ^ Conclusions/implications. These findings suggest the importance of returning to normalcy for many of the families and the significance of sibling relationships on the process. Some of these families were able to use this major life event in a positive way to promote normalization. ^