BAYESIAN PHASE I DOSE FINDING IN CANCER TRIALS

This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.

Molecular characterization of a gene required for entry into S phase of the mitotic cell cycle in the yeast {\it Saccharomyces cerevisiae\/}

A strain of Saccaromyces cerevisiae (SC3B) with a temperature sensitive defect in the synthesis of DNA has been isolated. This defect is due to a single recessive mutation in a gene named INS1 required for the initiation of S phase. Arrested cells carrying the ins1$\sp{ts}$ allele are defective in the completion of G1 to S phase transition events including SPB duplication or separation, initiation of DNA synthesis, normal control of budding, and bud neck stability. The mutation and a gene which complements the mutation were mapped to chromosome IV. The complementing gene was proved to be the wild type allele of the temperature sensitive mutation by genetic linkage of an integrated clone. A very low abundance 4.2 kb RNA message was observed in the strain SC3B which increased greatly in this strain transformed with a multiple copy plasmid carrying the complementing clone. The wild type gene was sequenced and found to encode a 1268 amino acid protein of with a molecular weight of 142,655 Daltons. Computer assisted searches for similar DNA sequences revealed no significant homology matches. However, searches for protein sequence homology revealed a protein (the DIS3 gene product of S. pombe) with a similar sequence over a 534 amino acid stretch to the predicted INS1 gene product. A later search revealed a near identical sequence for a gene (SRK1) also isolated from S. cerevisiae. ^

The functional and structural interactions between v-{\it mos\/} proteins and cell cycle control elements

The v-mos gene of Moloney murine sarcoma virus (Mo-MuSv) encodes a serine/threonine protein kinase capable of inducing cellular transformation. The c-mos protein is an important cell cycle regulator that functions during meiotic cell division cycles in germ cells. The overall function of c-mos in controlling meiosis is becoming better understood but the role of v-mos in malignant transformation of cells is largely unknown.^ In this study, v-mos protein was shown to be phosphorylated by M phase kinase in vitro and in vivo. The kinase activity and neoplastic transforming ability of v-mos is positively regulated by the phosphorylation. Together with the earlier finding of activation of M phase kinase by c-mos, these results raise the possibility of mutual regulation between M phase kinase and mos kinases.^ In addition to its functional interaction with the M phase kinase, the v-mos protein was shown to be present in the same protein complex with a cyclin-dependent kinase (cdk). In addition, an antibody that recognizes the cdk proteins was shown to co-precipitate the v-mos proteins in the interphase and mitotic cells transformed by p85$\sp{\rm gag-mos}$. Cdk proteins have been shown to be associated with nonmitotic cyclins which are potential oncogenes. The perturbation of cdk kinase or the activation of non-mitotic cyclins as oncogenes by v-mos could contribute directly to v-mos induced cellular transformation. v-mos proteins were also shown to interact with tubulin and vimentin, the essential components of microtubules and type IV intermediate filaments, respectively. The organizations of both microtubules and intermediate filaments are cell cycle-regulated. These results suggest that the v-mos kinase could be directly involved in inducing morphological changes typically seen in transformed cells.^ The interactions between the v-mos protein and these cell cycle control elements in regards to v-mos induced neoplastic transformation are discussed in detail in the text. ^

Hypotensive resuscitation versus standard fluid resuscitation for the management of trauma patients in hemorrhagic shock: The safety phase of a randomized controlled trial

Trauma is a leading cause of death worldwide, and is thus a major public health concern. Improving current resuscitation strategies may help to reduce morbidity and mortality from trauma, and clinical research plays an important role in addressing these issues. This thesis is a secondary analysis of data that was collected for a randomized clinical trial being conducted at Ben Taub General Hospital. The trial is designed to compare a hypotensive resuscitation strategy to standard fluid resuscitation for the early treatment of trauma patients in hemorrhagic shock. This thesis examines the clinical outcomes from the first 90 subjects enrolled in the study, with the primary aim of assessing the safety of hypotensive resuscitation within the trauma population. ^ Patients in hemorrhagic shock who required emergent surgery were randomized to one of two arms of the study. Those in the experimental (LMAP) arm were managed with a hypotensive resuscitation strategy in which the target mean arterial pressure was 50mmHg. Those in the control (HMAP) arm were managed with standard fluid resuscitation to a target mean arterial pressure of 65mmHg. Patients were followed for 30 days. Mortality, post-operative complications, and other clinical data were prospectively gathered by the Ben Taub surgical staff and then secondarily analyzed for the purpose of this thesis.^ Subjects in the LMAP group had significantly lower early post-operative mortality compared to those in the HMAP group. 30-day mortality was also lower in the LMAP group, although this did not reach statistical significance. There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups with regards to development of ischemic, hematologic or infectious complications, length of hospitalization, length of ICU stay or duration of mechanical ventilation. ^ Based upon the data presented in this thesis, it appears that hypotensive resuscitation is a safe strategy for use in the trauma population. Specifically, hypotensive resuscitation reduced the risk of early post-operative death from coagulopathic bleeding and did not result in an increased risk of ischemic or other post-operative complications. The preliminary results described in this thesis provide convincing evidence support the continued investigation and use of hypotensive resuscitation in a trauma setting.^

Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^