Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

Foodborne illness - An age old problem requiring contemporary solutions

Foodborne illness has always been with us, and food safety is an increasingly important public health issue affecting populations worldwide. In the United States of America, foodborne illness strikes millions of people and kills thousands annually, costing our economy billions of dollars in medical care expense and lost productivity. The nature of food and foodborne illness has changed dramatically in the last century. The regulatory systems have evolved to better assure a safe food supply. The food production industry has invested heavily to meet regulatory requirement and to improve the safety of their products. Educational efforts have increased public awareness of safe food handling practices, empowering consumers to fulfill their food safety role. Despite the advances made, none of the Healthy People 2010 targets for reduction of foodborne pathogens has been reached. There is no single solution to eliminating pathogen contamination from all classes of food products. However, irradiation seems especially suited for certain higher-risk foods such as meat and poultry and its use should advance the goal of reducing foodborne illness by minimizing the presence of pathogenic organisms in the food supply. This technology has been studied extensively for over 50 years. The Food and Drug Administration has determined that food irradiation is safe for use as approved by the Agency. It is time to take action to educate consumers about the benefits of food irradiation. Consumer demand will compel industry to meet demand by investing in facilities and processes to assure a consistent supply of irradiated food products. ^