Clinical, microbiological, and immunological markers of gingival and periodontal disease induction and progression

The potential impact of periodontal disease, a suspected risk factor for systemic diseases, presents challenges for health promotion and disease prevention strategies. This study examined clinical, microbiological, and immunological factors in a disease model to identify potential biomarkers that may be useful in predicting the onset and severity of both inflammatory and destructive periodontal disease. This project used an historical cohort design based on data obtained from 47 adult, female nonhuman primates followed over a 6-year period for 5 unique projects where the ligature-induced model of periodontitis was utilized. Standardization of protocols for sample collection allowed for comparison over time. Bleeding and pocket depth measures were selected as the dependent variables of relevance to humans based upon the literature and historical observations. Exposure variables included supragingival plaque, attachment level, total bacteria, black-pigmented bacteria, Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria, total IgG and IgA in crevicular fluid, specific IgG antibody in both crevicular fluid and serum, and IgG antibody to four select pathogenic microorganisms. Three approaches were used to analyze the data from this study. The first approach tested for differences in the means of the response variables within the group and among longitudinal observations within the group at each time point. The second approach examined the relationship among the clinical, microbiological, and immunological variables using correlation coefficients and stratified analyses. Multivariable models using GEE for repeated measures were produced as a predictive description of the induction and progression of gingivitis and periodontal disease. The multivariable models for bleeding (gingivitis) include supragingival plaque, total bacteria and total IgG while the second also contains supragingival plaque, Gram-positive bacteria, and total IgG. Two multivariable models emerged for periodontal disease. One multivariable model contains plaque, total bacteria, total IgG and attachment level. The second model includes black-pigmented bacteria, total bacteria, antibody to Campylobacter rectus, and attachment level. Utilization of the nonhuman primate model to prospectively examine causal hypotheses can provide a focus for human research on the mechanisms of progression from health to gingivitis to periodontitis. Ultimately, causal theories can guide strategies to prevent disease initiation and reduce disease severity. ^

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^

Gene regulation during placenta development: Murine adenosine deaminase as a model to study placenta specific expression

The formation of the placenta is one of the first and most important developmental events that occur in early mammalian embryogenesis. Even given this importance of the placenta, the academic community has largely ignored studying gene regulation during the development and maturation of the placenta. For this reason, an in-depth study of gene regulation in the trophoblast layer of the placenta using murine Adenosine Deaminase (Ada) as a model system has been undertaken. It has been determined that Ada is highly expressed in the placenta and is critical for embryo development. Dr. Kellems' laboratory has previously described a 1.8 kb fragment of the Ada 5 ′ flanking region that is capable of directing trophoblast specific expression in a transgenic model system. Preliminary studies have demonstrated several critical portions of this fragment that are necessary for the correct tissue specific expression in the placenta. My first specific aim was to elucidate the trans factor binding to one of these sequences, the FP3. Through electromobility shift assays (EMSA), the 30 bp FP3 was narrowed to a 5 bp sequence which computer databases predicted bound to Acute Myeloid Leukemia 1 (AML-1). This was confirmed by supershift analysis. The functional importance of this binding was demonstrated by a transgenic approach. A significant difference in expression of the reporter in the placenta was seen when the 5 bp sequence was mutated. This finding is a novel use for the AML-1 transcription factor which is the DNA binding portion of the heterodimer Core Binding Protein (CBP). The 5′ 240 bp region has also been demonstrated to contain functionally significant sequence. Through EMSA assays and computer predictions, the area has been narrowed to two pertinent regions that are predicted to contain GATA binding motifs. ^

Neocortical hyperexcitability defect in a mutant mouse model of spike-wave epilepsy, {\it stargazer}

Single-locus mutations in mice can express epileptic phenotypes and provide critical insights into the naturally occurring defects that alter excitability and mediate synchronization in the central nervous system (CNS). One such recessive mutation (on chromosome (Chr) 15), stargazer(stg/stg) expresses frequent bilateral 6-7 cycles per second (c/sec) spike-wave seizures associated with behavioral arrest, and provides a valuable opportunity to examine the inherited lesion associated with spike-wave synchronization.^ The existence of distinct and heterogeneous defects mediating spike-wave discharge (SWD) generation has been demonstrated by the presence of multiple genetic loci expressing generalized spike-wave activity and the differential effects of pharmacological agents on SWDs in different spike-wave epilepsy models. Attempts at understanding the different basic mechanisms underlying spike-wave synchronization have focused on $\gamma$-aminobutyric acid (GABA) receptor-, low threshold T-type Ca$\sp{2+}$ channel-, and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDA-R)-mediated transmission. It is believed that defects in these modes of transmission can mediate the conversion of normal oscillations in a trisynaptic circuit, which includes the neocortex, reticular nucleus and thalamus, into spike-wave activity. However, the underlying lesions involved in spike-wave synchronization have not been clearly identified.^ The purpose of this research project was to locate and characterize a distinct neuronal hyperexcitability defect favoring spike-wave synchronization in the stargazer brain. One experimental approach for anatomically locating areas of synchronization and hyperexcitability involved an attempt to map patterns of hypersynchronous activity with antibodies to activity-induced proteins.^ A second approach to characterizing the neuronal defect involved examining the neuronal responses in the mutant following application of pharmacological agents with well known sites of action.^ In order to test the hypothesis that an NMDA receptor mediated hyperexcitability defect exists in stargazer neocortex, extracellular field recordings were used to examine the effects of CPP and MK-801 on coronal neocortical brain slices of stargazer and wild type perfused with 0 Mg$\sp{2+}$ artificial cerebral spinal fluid (aCSF).^ To study how NMDA receptor antagonists might promote increased excitability in stargazer neocortex, two basic hypotheses were tested: (1) NMDA receptor antagonists directly activate deep layer principal pyramidal cells in the neocortex of stargazer, presumably by opening NMDA receptor channels altered by the stg mutation; and (2) NMDA receptor antagonists disinhibit the neocortical network by blocking recurrent excitatory synaptic inputs onto inhibitory interneurons in the deep layers of stargazer neocortex.^ In order to test whether CPP might disinhibit the 0 Mg$\sp{2+}$ bursting network in the mutant by acting on inhibitory interneurons, the inhibitory inputs were pharmacologically removed by application of GABA receptor antagonists to the cortical network, and the effects of CPP under 0 Mg$\sp{2+}$aCSF perfusion in layer V of stg/stg were then compared with those found in +/+ neocortex using in vitro extracellular field recordings. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^