DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, MEAN SQUARED ERRORS, AND CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR RIDGE REGRESSION ESTIMATORS

A large number of ridge regression estimators have been proposed and used with little knowledge of their true distributions. Because of this lack of knowledge, these estimators cannot be used to test hypotheses or to form confidence intervals.^ This paper presents a basic technique for deriving the exact distribution functions for a class of generalized ridge estimators. The technique is applied to five prominent generalized ridge estimators. Graphs of the resulting distribution functions are presented. The actual behavior of these estimators is found to be considerably different than the behavior which is generally assumed for ridge estimators.^ This paper also uses the derived distributions to examine the mean squared error properties of the estimators. A technique for developing confidence intervals based on the generalized ridge estimators is also presented. ^

Use of a modified delphi process for establishing occupational exposure limits in support of health surveillance for space travelers

On-orbit exposures can come from numerous factors related to the space environment as evidenced by almost 50 years of environmental samples collected for water analysis, air analysis, radiation analysis, and physiologic parameters. For astronauts and spaceflight participants the occupational exposures can be very different from those experienced by workers performing similar tasks in workplaces on Earth, because the duration of the exposure could be continuous for very long orbital, and eventually interplanetary, missions. The establishment of long-term exposure standards is vital to controlling the quality of the spacecraft environment over long periods. NASA often needs to update and revise its prior exposure standards (Spacecrafts Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs)). Traditional standards-setting processes are often lengthy, so a more rapid method to review and establish standards would be a substantial advancement in this area. This project investigates use of the Delphi method for this purpose. ^ In order to achieve the objectives of this study a modified Delphi methodology was tested in three trials executed by doctoral students and a panel of experts in disciplines related to occupational safety and health. During each test/trial modifications were made to the methodology. Prior to submission of the Delphi Questionnaire to the panel of experts a pilot study/trial was conducted using five doctoral students with the goals of testing and adjusting the Delphi questionnaire to improve comprehension, work out any procedural issues and evaluate the effectiveness of the questionnaire in drawing the desired responses. The remainder of the study consisted of two trials of the Modified Delphi process using 6 chemicals that currently have the potential of causing occupational exposures to NASA astronauts or spaceflight participants. To assist in setting Occupational Exposure Limits (OEL), the expert panel was established consisting of experts from academia, government and industry. Evidence was collected and used to create close-ended questionnaires which were submitted to the Delphi panel of experts for the establishment of OEL values for three chemicals from the list of six originally selected (trial 1). Once the first Delphi trial was completed, adjustments were made to the Delphi questionnaires and the process above was repeated with the remaining 3 chemicals (trial 2). ^ Results indicate that experience in occupational safety and health and with OEL methodologies can have a positive effect in minimizing the time experts take in completing this process. Based on the results of the questionnaires and comparison of the results with the SMAC already established by NASA, we conclude that use of the Delphi methodology is appropriate for use in the decision-making process for the selection of OELs.^

The effects of omega -3 fatty acid -enriched fish on C -reactive protein levels in postmenopausal women

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death in women and rates markedly increase among women after 65 years of age. C-reactive protein (CRP) is a new clinical indicator of atherosclerotic-related inflammation with a direct pathogenic role. Studies show lifestyle factors can modulate CRP. Omega-3 fatty acids have anti-inflammatory properties and studies suggest that eating fish high in omega-3 fatty acids may lower CHD risk in women. This study sought to assess the possible role of omega-3 fatty acids in the reduction of CHD-related inflammation by investigating the effect of fish consumption on CRP levels. Methods. Twenty-four healthy postmenopausal women were randomly assigned to a fish group (usual diet plus two servings per week of enriched fish) or control group (usual diet with no fatty fish) for eight weeks. Omega-3 fatty acid-enriched fish developed by the West Virginia University Aquaculture Division was used. Serum CRP, serum interleukin-6 (IL-6), and the fatty acid content of red blood cells (RBC) were measured before and after the study. Women also completed food records. RESULTS: Baseline levels of CRP were low (85% of the fish group had normal levels) and few changes in CRP risk category were observed. Mean IL-6 levels were reduced by 27% and 35% in the fish and control groups, respectively (p for between-group difference = 0.60). Changes in RBC fatty acid composition were not statistically significant. Compared to control women, women in the fish group had greater reductions in mean triglycerides (p = 0.08), total cholesterol (P = 0.04), and LDL cholesterol levels (p = 0.06). Baseline dietary intake of total and monounsaturated fatty acids tended to be positively associated with baseline CRP, while vitamin E intake was inversely related. Saturated fat intake tended to have a positive association with IL-6. Conclusions. Findings regarding the effect of two servings of fish on CRP and IL-6 levels are inconclusive due to low baseline levels of CRP and IL-6. However, results indicate two servings of fatty fish have favorable effects on blood lipids. The relationship of dietary components with CRP and IL-6 is complex and further research is needed to determine the varying roles of diet on the inflammatory process. ^