Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

Bifurcation and singularity analysis of a molecular network for the induction of long-term memory.

Withdrawal reflexes of the mollusk Aplysia exhibit sensitization, a simple form of long-term memory (LTM). Sensitization is due, in part, to long-term facilitation (LTF) of sensorimotor neuron synapses. LTF is induced by the modulatory actions of serotonin (5-HT). Pettigrew et al. developed a computational model of the nonlinear intracellular signaling and gene network that underlies the induction of 5-HT-induced LTF. The model simulated empirical observations that repeated applications of 5-HT induce persistent activation of protein kinase A (PKA) and that this persistent activation requires a suprathreshold exposure of 5-HT. This study extends the analysis of the Pettigrew model by applying bifurcation analysis, singularity theory, and numerical simulation. Using singularity theory, classification diagrams of parameter space were constructed, identifying regions with qualitatively different steady-state behaviors. The graphical representation of these regions illustrates the robustness of these regions to changes in model parameters. Because persistent protein kinase A (PKA) activity correlates with Aplysia LTM, the analysis focuses on a positive feedback loop in the model that tends to maintain PKA activity. In this loop, PKA phosphorylates a transcription factor (TF-1), thereby increasing the expression of an ubiquitin hydrolase (Ap-Uch). Ap-Uch then acts to increase PKA activity, closing the loop. This positive feedback loop manifests multiple, coexisting steady states, or multiplicity, which provides a mechanism for a bistable switch in PKA activity. After the removal of 5-HT, the PKA activity either returns to its basal level (reversible switch) or remains at a high level (irreversible switch). Such an irreversible switch might be a mechanism that contributes to the persistence of LTM. The classification diagrams also identify parameters and processes that might be manipulated, perhaps pharmacologically, to enhance the induction of memory. Rational drug design, to affect complex processes such as memory formation, can benefit from this type of analysis.

Establishing occupational and environmental health design requirements for Lunar and Mars settlements

In a study of Lunar and Mars settlement concepts, an analysis was made of fundamental design assumptions in five technical areas against a model list of occupational and environmental health concerns. The technical areas included the proposed science projects to be supported, habitat and construction issues, closed ecosystem issues, the "MMM" issues--mining, material-processing, and manufacturing, and the human elements of physiology, behavior and mission approach. Four major lessons were learned. First it is possible to relate public health concerns to complex technological development in a proactive design mode, which has the potential for long-term cost savings. Second, it became very apparent that prior to committing any nation or international group to spending the billions to start and complete a lunar settlement, over the next century, that a significantly different approach must be taken from those previously proposed, to solve the closed ecosystem and "MMM" problems. Third, it also appears that the health concerns and technology issues to be addressed for human exploration into space are fundamentally those to be solved for human habitation of the earth (as a closed ecosystem) in the 21st century. Finally, it is proposed that ecosystem design modeling must develop new tools, based on probabilistic models as a step up from closed circuit models. ^

A qualitative and quantitative assessment of cancer patients' perceptions of barriers to treatment

This study examined barriers that cancer patients experience in obtaining treatment. The principal aim of the study was to conduct a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of barriers to cancer treatment for Texas cancer patients. The three specific aims of the study were to: (1) conduct a review and critique of published and unpublished research on barriers to cancer treatment; (2) conduct focus groups for the qualitative assessment of cancer patients' perceived barriers to cancer treatment; and (3) survey a representative sample of cancer patients regarding perceived barriers to treatment. The study was guided by the Aday and Andersen access framework of predisposing, enabling, and need determinants of care-seeking.^ To address the first specific aim, a total of 732 abstracts were examined, from which 154 articles were selected for review. Of these 154 articles, 57 that related directly to research on barriers to cancer treatment were chosen for subsequent analysis. Criteria were applied to each article to evaluate the strength of the study design, sampling and measurement procedures. The major barriers that were consistently documented to influence whether or not cancer patients sought or continued required treatment included problems with communication between the patient and provider, lack of information on side effects, the cost of treatment and associated difficulties in obtaining and maintaining insurance coverage, and the absence of formal and informal networks of social support. Access barriers were generally greater for older, minority women, and patients of lower socioeconomic status.^ To address the second specific aim, a total of eight focus groups (n = 44) were conducted across the State of Texas with cancer patients identified by the Texas Community Oncology Network, American Cancer Society, and community health centers. One important finding was that cost is the greatest hurdle that patients face. Another finding was that with the health care/insurance crisis, an increasing number of physicians are working with their patients to develop individually-tailored payment plans. For people in rural areas, travel to treatment sites is a major barrier due to the travel costs as well as work time forfeited by patients and their family members. A third major finding was the patients' family and church play important roles in providing social and emotional support for cancer patients.^ To address the third aim, a total of 910 cancer patients were surveyed during October and November, 1993. Approximately 65% of the cancer patients responded to the survey. The findings showed that the major barriers to treatment included costs of medications and diagnostic tests, transportation, lack of social support, problems understanding the written information regarding their disease as well as losing coverage or having higher premiums or copayments once they were diagnosed (particularly among blacks).^ Significant differences in reported barriers were found between racial groups. The minority respondents (i.e., blacks and Hispanics) tended to experience more barriers to treatment compared to the white respondents. More specifically, Hispanics were more likely to report transportation as a barrier to treatment than both white and blacks. Future research is needed to better understand the problems that minority cancer patients experience in receiving treatment. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Specialized managed care for children with cystic fibrosis: Resource use patterns and rate design for a high cost Medicaid population

Objective. This research study had two goals: (1) to describe resource consumption patterns for Medi-Cal children with cystic fibrosis, and (2) to explore the feasibility from a rate design perspective of developing specialized managed care plans for such a special needs population.^ Background. Children with special health care needs (CSHN) comprise about 2% of the California Medicaid pediatric population. CSHN have rare but serious health problems, such as cystic fibrosis. Medicaid programs, including Medi-Cal, are enrolling more and more beneficiaries in managed care to control costs. CSHN, however, do not fit the wellness model underlying most managed care plans. Child health advocates believe that both efficiency and quality will suffer if CSHN are removed from regionalized special care centers and scattered among general purpose plans. They believe that CSHN should be "carved out" from enrollment in general plans. One alternative is the Specialized Managed Care Plan, tailored for CSHN.^ Methods. The study population consisted of children under age 21 with CF who were eligible for Medi-Cal and California Children's Services program (CCS) during 1991. Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) Medicaid Tape-to-Tape data were analyzed as part of a California Children's Hospital Association (CCHA) project.^ Results. Mean Medi-Cal expenditures per month enrolled were $2,302 for 457 CF children, compared to about \$1,270 for all 47,000 CCS special needs children and roughly $60 for almost 2.6 million ``regular needs'' children. For CF children, inpatient care (80\%) and outpatient drugs (9\%) were the major cost drivers, with {\it all\/} outpatient visits comprising only 2\% of expenditures. About one-third of CF children were eligible due to AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children). Age group explained about 17\% of all expenditure variation. Regression analysis was used to select the best capitation rate structure (rate cells by age and eligibility group). Sensitivity analysis estimated moderate financial risk for a statewide plan (360 enrollees), but severe risk for single county implementation due to small numbers of children.^ Conclusions. Study results support the carve out of CSHN due to unique expenditure patterns. The Specialized Managed Care Plan concept appears feasible from a rate design perspective given sufficient enrollees. ^