Evaluation of the accuracy of multilevel analysis parameter estimates for intra-cluster correlation in correlated binary data

Many studies in biostatistics deal with binary data. Some of these studies involve correlated observations, which can complicate the analysis of the resulting data. Studies of this kind typically arise when a high degree of commonality exists between test subjects. If there exists a natural hierarchy in the data, multilevel analysis is an appropriate tool for the analysis. Two examples are the measurements on identical twins, or the study of symmetrical organs or appendages such as in the case of ophthalmic studies. Although this type of matching appears ideal for the purposes of comparison, analysis of the resulting data while ignoring the effect of intra-cluster correlation has been shown to produce biased results.^ This paper will explore the use of multilevel modeling of simulated binary data with predetermined levels of correlation. Data will be generated using the Beta-Binomial method with varying degrees of correlation between the lower level observations. The data will be analyzed using the multilevel software package MlwiN (Woodhouse, et al, 1995). Comparisons between the specified intra-cluster correlation of these data and the estimated correlations, using multilevel analysis, will be used to examine the accuracy of this technique in analyzing this type of data. ^

Multilevel analysis for a longitudinal clinical trial

This study applies the multilevel analysis technique to longitudinal data of a large clinical trial. The technique accounts for the correlation at different levels when modeling repeated blood pressure measurements taken throughout the trial. This modeling allows for closer inspection of the remaining correlation and non-homogeneity of variance in the data. Three methods of modeling the correlation were compared. ^

Comparison of a traditional and a multilevel Cox Proportional Hazards model

Hierarchically clustered populations are often encountered in public health research, but the traditional methods used in analyzing this type of data are not always adequate. In the case of survival time data, more appropriate methods have only begun to surface in the last couple of decades. Such methods include multilevel statistical techniques which, although more complicated to implement than traditional methods, are more appropriate. ^ One population that is known to exhibit a hierarchical structure is that of patients who utilize the health care system of the Department of Veterans Affairs where patients are grouped not only by hospital, but also by geographic network (VISN). This project analyzes survival time data sets housed at the Houston Veterans Affairs Medical Center Research Department using two different Cox Proportional Hazards regression models, a traditional model and a multilevel model. VISNs that exhibit significantly higher or lower survival rates than the rest are identified separately for each model. ^ In this particular case, although there are differences in the results of the two models, it is not enough to warrant using the more complex multilevel technique. This is shown by the small estimates of variance associated with levels two and three in the multilevel Cox analysis. Much of the differences that are exhibited in identification of VISNs with high or low survival rates is attributable to computer hardware difficulties rather than to any significant improvements in the model. ^

The association of area socioeconomic status and cancer screening: A systematic review and multilevel study

Background. The gap between actual and ideal rates of routine cancer screening in the U.S., particularly for colorectal cancer screening (CRCS) (1;2), is responsible for an unnecessary burden of morbidity and mortality, particularly for disadvantaged groups. Knowledge about the effects of individual and area influences is being advanced by a growing body of research that has examined the association of area socioeconomic status (SES) and cancer screening after controlling for individual SES. The findings from this emerging and heterogeneous research in the cancer screening literature have been mixed. Moreover, multilevel studies in this area have not yet adequately explored the possibility of differential associations by population subgroup, despite some evidence suggesting gender-specific effects. ^ Objectives and methods. This dissertation reports on a systematic review of studies on the association of area SES and cancer screening and a multilevel study of the association between area SES and CRCS. The specific aims of the systematic review are to: (1) describe the study designs, constructs, methods, and measures; (2) describe the association of area SES and cancer screening; and (3) identify neglected areas of research. ^ The empiric study linked a pooled sample of respondents aged ≥50 years without a personal history of colorectal cancer from the 2003 and 2005 California Health Interview Surveys with a comprehensive set of census-tract level area SES measures from the 2000 U.S. Census. Two-level random intercept models were used to test 2 hypotheses: (1) area SES will be associated with adherence to two modalities of CRCS after controlling for individual SES; and (2) gender will moderate the relationship between area socioeconomic status and adherence to both modalities of CRCS. ^ Results. The systematic review identified 19 eligible studies that demonstrated variability in study designs, methods, constructs, and measures. The majority of tested associations were either not statistically significant or significant and in the positive direction, indicating that as area SES increased, the odds of CRCS increased. The multilevel study demonstrated that while multiple aspects of area SES were associated with CRCS after controlling for individual SES, associations differed by screening modality and in the case of endoscopy, they also differed by gender. ^ Conclusions. Conceptual and methodologic heterogeneity and weaknesses in the literature to date limit definitive conclusions about the underlying relationships between area SES and cancer screening. The multilevel study provided partial support for both hypotheses. Future research should continue to explore the role of gender as a moderating influence with the aim of identifying the mechanisms linking area SES and cancer prevention behaviors. ^

Assessing fun in serious games: Formative evaluation of games from two diabetes prevention interventions

Purpose. To determine the usability of two video games to prevent type 2 diabetes and obesity among youth through analysis of data collected during alpha-testing. ^ Subjects. Ten children aged 9 to 12 were selected for three 2-hour alpha testing sessions.^ Methods. "Escape from Diab" and "Nanoswarm" were designed to change dietary and physical inactivity behaviors, based on a theoretical framework of mediating variables obtained from social cognitive theory, self-determination theory, elaboration likelihood model, and behavioral inoculation theory. Thirteen mini-games developed by the software company were divided into 3 groups based on completion date. Children tested 4-5 mini-games in each of three sessions. Observed game play was followed by a scripted interview. Results from observation forms and interview transcripts were tabulated and coded to determine usability. Suggestions for game modifications were delivered to the software design firm, and a follow-up table reports rationale for inclusion or exclusion of such modifications.^ Results. Participants were 50% frequent video game players and 20% non game-players. Most (60%) were female. The mean grade (indicating likeability as a subset of usability) across all games given by children was significantly greater than a neutral grade of 80% (89%, p < 0.01), indicating a positive likeability score. The games on average also received positive ratings for fun, helpfulness of instructions and length compared to neutral values (midpoint on likert scales) (all p < 0.01). Observation notes indicated that participants paid attention to the instructions, did not appear to have much difficulty with the games, and were "not frustrated", "not bored", "very engaged", "not fidgety" and "very calm" (all p < 0.01). The primary issues noted in observations and interviews were unclear instructions and unclear purpose of some games. Player suggestions primarily involved ways to make on screen cues more visible or noticeable, instructions more clear, and games more elaborate or difficult.^ Conclusions. The present study highlights the importance of alpha testing video game components for usability prior to completion to enhance usability and likeability. Results indicate that creating clear instructions, making peripheral screen cues more eye-catching or noticeable, and vigorously stating the purpose of the game to improve understandability are important elements. However, future interventions will each present unique materials and user-interfaces and should therefore also be thoroughly alpha-tested. ^

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with TGF-beta pathway and their significance in systemic sclerosis - A multilevel analysis

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) or Scleroderma is a complex disease and its etiopathogenesis remains unelucidated. Fibrosis in multiple organs is a key feature of SSc and studies have shown that transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) pathway has a crucial role in fibrotic responses. For a complex disease such as SSc, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis is a powerful tool for identifying genetic variations that affect expression of genes involved in this disease. In this study, a multilevel model is described to perform a multivariate eQTL for identifying genetic variation (SNPs) specifically associated with the expression of three members of TGF-β pathway, CTGF, SPARC and COL3A1. The uniqueness of this model is that all three genes were included in one model, rather than one gene being examined at a time. A protein might contribute to multiple pathways and this approach allows the identification of important genetic variations linked to multiple genes belonging to the same pathway. In this study, 29 SNPs were identified and 16 of them located in known genes. Exploring the roles of these genes in TGF-β regulation will help elucidate the etiology of SSc, which will in turn help to better manage this complex disease. ^

HPV vaccine coverage in Texas counties: An application of multilevel, small area estimation

Health departments, research institutions, policy-makers, and healthcare providers are often interested in knowing the health status of their clients/constituents. Without the resources, financially or administratively, to go out into the community and conduct health assessments directly, these entities frequently rely on data from population-based surveys to supply the information they need. Unfortunately, these surveys are ill-equipped for the job due to sample size and privacy concerns. Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have excellent potential in such circumstances, but have been underutilized in public health due to lack of awareness and confidence in applying its methods. The goal of this research is to make model-based SAE accessible to a broad readership using clear, example-based learning. Specifically, we applied the principles of multilevel, unit-level SAE to describe the geographic distribution of HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas.^ Multilevel (3 level: individual, county, public health region) random-intercept logit models of HPV vaccination (receipt of ≥ 1 dose Gardasil® ) were fit to data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (outcome and level 1 covariates) and a number of secondary sources (group-level covariates). Sampling weights were scaled (level 1) or constructed (levels 2 & 3), and incorporated at every level. Using the regression coefficients (and standard errors) from the final models, I simulated 10,000 datasets for each regression coefficient from the normal distribution and applied them to the logit model to estimate HPV vaccine coverage in each county and respective demographic subgroup. For simplicity, I only provide coverage estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) for counties.^ County-level coverage among females aged 11-17 varied from 6.8-29.0%. For females aged 18-26, coverage varied from 1.9%-23.8%. Aggregated to the state level, these values translate to indirect state estimates of 15.5% and 11.4%, respectively; both of which fall within the confidence intervals for the direct estimates of HPV vaccine coverage in Texas (Females 11-17: 17.7%, 95% CI: 13.6, 21.9; Females 18-26: 12.0%, 95% CI: 6.2, 17.7).^ Small area estimation has great potential for informing policy, program development and evaluation, and the provision of health services. Harnessing the flexibility of multilevel, unit-level SAE to estimate HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas counties, I have provided (1) practical guidance on how to conceptualize and conduct modelbased SAE, (2) a robust framework that can be applied to other health outcomes or geographic levels of aggregation, and (3) HPV vaccine coverage data that may inform the development of health education programs, the provision of health services, the planning of additional research studies, and the creation of local health policies.^

Bayesian estimation of multilevel item response model with missing data

This study proposed a novel statistical method that modeled the multiple outcomes and missing data process jointly using item response theory. This method follows the "intent-to-treat" principle in clinical trials and accounts for the correlation between outcomes and missing data process. This method may provide a good solution to chronic mental disorder study. ^ The simulation study demonstrated that if the true model is the proposed model with moderate or strong correlation, ignoring the within correlation may lead to overestimate of the treatment effect and result in more type I error than specified level. Even if the within correlation is small, the performance of proposed model is as good as naïve response model. Thus, the proposed model is robust for different correlation settings if the data is generated by the proposed model.^