Bayesian dual threshold design with Dirichlet distribution: An alternative way to frequentist multi-stage phase II designs in oncology

Many phase II clinical studies in oncology use two-stage frequentist design such as Simon's optimal design. However, they have a common logistical problem regarding the patient accrual at the interim. Strictly speaking, patient accrual at the end of the first stage may have to be suspended until all patients have events, success or failure. For example, when the study endpoint is six-month progression free survival, patient accrual has to be stopped until all outcomes from stage I is observed. However, study investigators may have concern when accrual is suspended after the first stage due to the loss of accrual momentum during this hiatus. We propose a two-stage phase II design that resolves the patient accrual problem due to an interim analysis, and it can be used as an alternative way to frequentist two-stage phase II studies in oncology. ^

Body mass index of Vietnamese children ages 6--15 years old

Childhood overweight can increase the risk of chronic diseases later in life. To determine the prevalence, trends and determinants of overweight among children ages 6-15 years old in Vietnam, we assessed data on body mass index (BMI) and demographic and socio-economic characteristics obtained from the 1992 Vietnam Living Standard Survey (1992 VLSS), the 1997 Vietnam Living Standard Survey (1997 VLSS), and the 2000 General Nutrition Survey (2000 GNS). These surveys used multi-stage cluster sample designs to produce nationally representative samples of Vietnamese children ages 6-15 years in 1992-1993, 1997-1998 and 2000. BMI classification was determined using cut-off values set by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF). The mean prevalence of at risk of overweight and overweight among Vietnamese children rapidly increased from 0.4% in 1992 to 2.0% in 2000, along with a high prevalence of underweight (33.4% in 2000). Increases in weight, height and BMI varied according to gender, area of residence and socioeconomic status. Age, areas of residence and education of the household head are statistically significant predictors of at risk of overweight and overweight. This study identified the prevalence and trends of weight among children crucial to understanding the prevention of child overweight in Vietnam. ^

Statistical and methodological challenges for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment in Rio Grande Valley of Texas

In recent years, disaster preparedness through assessment of medical and special needs persons (MSNP) has taken a center place in public eye in effect of frequent natural disasters such as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami due to climate change and increased human activity on our planet. Statistical methods complex survey design and analysis have equally gained significance as a consequence. However, there exist many challenges still, to infer such assessments over the target population for policy level advocacy and implementation. ^ Objective. This study discusses the use of some of the statistical methods for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment to facilitate local and state governments for its policy level decision making and logistic support to avoid any loss of life and property in future calamities. ^ Methods. In order to obtain precise and unbiased estimates for Medical Special Needs Persons (MSNP) and disaster preparedness for evacuation in Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas, a stratified and cluster-randomized multi-stage sampling design was implemented. US School of Public Health, Brownsville surveyed 3088 households in three counties namely Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy. Multiple statistical methods were implemented and estimates were obtained taking into count probability of selection and clustering effects. Statistical methods for data analysis discussed were Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Survey Linear Regression (Svy-Reg), Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) and Multilevel Mixed Models (MLM) all with and without sampling weights. ^ Results. Estimated population for RGV was 1,146,796. There were 51.5% female, 90% Hispanic, 73% married, 56% unemployed and 37% with their personal transport. 40% people attained education up to elementary school, another 42% reaching high school and only 18% went to college. Median household income is less than $15,000/year. MSNP estimated to be 44,196 (3.98%) [95% CI: 39,029; 51,123]. All statistical models are in concordance with MSNP estimates ranging from 44,000 to 48,000. MSNP estimates for statistical methods are: MLR (47,707; 95% CI: 42,462; 52,999), MLR with weights (45,882; 95% CI: 39,792; 51,972), Bootstrap Regression (47,730; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,785), GEE (47,649; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,670), GEE with weights (45,076; 95% CI: 39,029; 51,123), Svy-Reg (44,196; 95% CI: 40,004; 48,390) and MLM (46,513; 95% CI: 39,869; 53,157). ^ Conclusion. RGV is a flood zone, most susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters. People in the region are mostly Hispanic, under-educated with least income levels in the U.S. In case of any disaster people in large are incapacitated with only 37% have their personal transport to take care of MSNP. Local and state government’s intervention in terms of planning, preparation and support for evacuation is necessary in any such disaster to avoid loss of precious human life. ^ Key words: Complex Surveys, statistical methods, multilevel models, cluster randomized, sampling weights, raking, survey regression, generalized estimation equations (GEE), random effects, Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC).^

Time to renal disease and end-stage renal disease in PROFILE: a multiethnic lupus cohort.

BACKGROUND: Renal involvement is a serious manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE); it may portend a poor prognosis as it may lead to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The purpose of this study was to determine the factors predicting the development of renal involvement and its progression to ESRD in a multi-ethnic SLE cohort (PROFILE). METHODS AND FINDINGS: PROFILE includes SLE patients from five different United States institutions. We examined at baseline the socioeconomic-demographic, clinical, and genetic variables associated with the development of renal involvement and its progression to ESRD by univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Analyses of onset of renal involvement included only patients with renal involvement after SLE diagnosis (n = 229). Analyses of ESRD included all patients, regardless of whether renal involvement occurred before, at, or after SLE diagnosis (34 of 438 patients). In addition, we performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis of the variables associated with the development of renal involvement at any time during the course of SLE.In the time-dependent multivariable analysis, patients developing renal involvement were more likely to have more American College of Rheumatology criteria for SLE, and to be younger, hypertensive, and of African-American or Hispanic (from Texas) ethnicity. Alternative regression models were consistent with these results. In addition to greater accrued disease damage (renal damage excluded), younger age, and Hispanic ethnicity (from Texas), homozygosity for the valine allele of FcgammaRIIIa (FCGR3A*GG) was a significant predictor of ESRD. Results from the multivariable logistic regression model that included all cases of renal involvement were consistent with those from the Cox model. CONCLUSIONS: Fcgamma receptor genotype is a risk factor for progression of renal disease to ESRD. Since the frequency distribution of FCGR3A alleles does not vary significantly among the ethnic groups studied, the additional factors underlying the ethnic disparities in renal disease progression remain to be elucidated.

An analysis of two methods for the classification of stage of readiness to obtain repeat mammography screening

Background and purpose: Breast cancer continues to be a health problem for women, representing 28 percent of all female cancers and remaining one of the leading causes of death for women. Breast cancer incidence rates become substantial before the age of 50. After menopause, breast cancer incidence rates continue to increase with age creating a long-lasting source of concern (Harris et al., 1992). Mammography, a technique for the detection of breast tumors in their nonpalpable stage when they are most curable, has taken on considerable importance as a public health measure. The lifetime risk of breast cancer is approximately 1 in 9 and occurs over many decades. Recommendations are that screening be periodic in order to detect cancer at early stages. These recommendations, largely, are not followed. Not only are most women not getting regular mammograms, but this circumstance is particularly the case among older women where regular mammography has been proven to reduce mortality by approximately 30 percent. The purpose of this project was to increase our understanding of factors that are associated with stage of readiness to obtain subsequent mammograms. A secondary purpose of this research was to suggest further conceptual considerations toward the extension of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behavior change to repeat screening mammography. ^ Methods. A sample (n = 1,222) of women 50 years and older in a large multi-specialty clinic in Houston, Texas was surveyed by mail questionnaire regarding their previous screening experience and stage of readiness to obtain repeat screening. A computerized database, maintained on all women who undergo mammography at the clinic, was used to identify women who are eligible for the project. The major statistical technique employed to select the significant variables and to examine the man and interaction effects of independent variables on dependent variables was polychotomous stepwise, logistic regression. A prediction model for each stage of readiness definition was estimated. The expected probabilities for stage of readiness were calculated to assess the magnitude and direction of significant predictors. ^ Results. Analysis showed that both ways of defining stage of readiness for obtaining a screening mammogram were associated with specific constructs, including decisional balance and processes of the change. ^ Conclusions. The results of the present study demonstrate that the TTM appears to translate to repeat mammography screening. Findings in the current study also support finding of previous studies that suggest that stage of readiness is associated with respondent decisional balance and the processes of change. ^

A qualitative assessment of multi-level nutrition strategies for reducing racial and ethnic disparities in diabetes

The purpose of this study is to examine the stages of program realization of the interventions that the Bronx Health REACH program initiated at various levels to improve nutrition as a means for reducing racial and ethnic disparities in diabetes. This study was based on secondary analyses of qualitative data collected through the Bronx Health REACH Nutrition Project, a project conducted under the auspices of the Institute on Urban Family Health, with support from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Local human subjects' review and approval through the Institute on Urban Family Health was required and obtained in order to conduct the Bronx Health REACH Nutrition Project. ^ The study drew from two theoretical models—Glanz and colleagues' nutrition environments model and Shediac-Rizkallah and Bone's sustainability model. The specific study objectives were two-fold: (1) to categorize each nutrition activity to a specific dimension (i.e. consumer, organizational or community nutrition environment); and (2) to evaluate the stage at which the program has been realized (i.e. development, implementation or sustainability). ^ A case study approach was applied and a constant comparative method was used to analyze the data. Triangulation of data based was also conducted. Qualitative data from this study revealed the following principal findings: (1) communities of color are disproportionately experiencing numerous individual and environmental factors contributing to the disparities in diabetes; (2) multi-level strategies that targeted the individual, organizational and community nutrition environments can appropriately address these contributing factors; (3) the nutrition strategies greatly varied in their ability to appropriately meet criteria for the three program stages; and (4) those nutrition strategies most likely to succeed (a) conveyed consistent and culturally relevant messages, (b) had continued involvement from program staff and partners, (c) were able to adapt over time or setting, (d) had a program champion and a training component, (e) were integrated into partnering organizations, and (f) were perceived to be successful by program staff and partners in their efforts to create individual, organizational and community/policy change. As a result of the criteria-based assessment and qualitative findings, an ecological framework elaborating on Glanz and colleagues model was developed. The qualitative findings and the resulting ecological framework developed from this study will help public health professionals and community leaders to develop and implement sustainable multi-level nutrition strategies for addressing racial and ethnic disparities in diabetes. ^

A systematic review of community-based colorectal cancer screening randomized controlled trials with multi-ethnic groups

Background. The CDC estimates that 40% of adults 50 years of age or older do not receive time-appropriate colorectal cancer screening. Sixty percent of colorectal cancer deaths could be prevented by regular screening of adults 50 years of age and older. Yet, in 2000 only 42.5% of adults age 50 or older in the U.S. had received recommended screening. Disparities by health care, nativity status, socioeconomic status, and race/ethnicity are evident. Disparities in minority, underserved populations prevent us from attaining Goal 2 of Healthy People 2010 to “eliminate health disparities.” This review focuses on community-based screening research among underserved populations that includes multiple ethnic groups for appropriate disparities analysis. There is a gap in the colorectal cancer screening literature describing the effectiveness of community-based randomized controlled trials. ^ Objective. To critically review the literature describing community-based colorectal cancer screening strategies that are randomized controlled trials, and that include multiple racial/ethnic groups. ^ Methods. The review includes a preliminary disparities analysis to assess whether interventions were appropriately targeted in communities to those groups experiencing the greatest health disparities. Review articles are from an original search using Ovid Medline and a cross-matching search in Pubmed, both from January 2001 to June 2009. The Ovid Medline literature review is divided into eight exclusionary stages, seven electronic, and the last stage consisting of final manual review. ^ Results. The final studies (n=15) are categorized into four categories: Patient mailings (n=3), Telephone outreach (n=3), Electronic/multimedia (n=4), and Counseling/community education (n=5). Of 15 studies, 11 (73%) demonstrated that screening rates increased for the intervention group compared to controls, including all studies (100%) from the Patient mailings and Telephone outreach groups, 4 of 5 (80%) Counseling/community education studies, and 1 of 4 (25%) Electronic/multimedia interventions. ^ Conclusions. Patient choice and tailoring education and/or messages to individuals have proven to be two important factors in improving colorectal cancer screening adherence rates. Technological strategies have not been overly successful with underserved populations in community-based trials. Based on limited findings to date, future community-based colorectal cancer screening trials should include diverse populations who are experiencing incidence, survival, mortality and screening disparities. ^

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF ENTERIC BACTERIA IN DAY-CARE CENTERS, HOUSTON, TEXAS

An investigation was undertaken to evaluate the role of fomites in the transmission of diarrhea in day-care centers (DCC) and to elucidate the paths by which enteric organisms spread within this setting.^ During a nine-month period (December 1980-August 1981) extensive culturing of inanimate objects, as well as children and staff was done routinely each month and again repeated during diarrhea outbreaks. Air was sampled from the classrooms and toilets using a Single-Stage Sieve Sampler (Ross Industries, Midland, VA.). Stool samples were collected from both ill and well children and staff in the affected rooms only during outbreaks. Environmental samples were processed for Shigella, salmonella and fecal coliforms while stools were screened for miscellaneous enteropathogens.^ A total of 11 outbreaks occurred in the 5 DCC during the study period. Enteric pathogens were recovered in 7 (64%) of the outbreaks. Multiple pathogens were identified in 3 outbreaks. The most frequently identified pathogen in stools was Giardia lamblia which was recovered in 5 (45%) of the outbreaks. Ten of the 11 (91%) outbreaks occurred in children less than 12 months of age.^ Environmental microbiology studies together with epidemiologic information revealed that enteric organisms were transmitted from person-to-person. On routine sampling, fecal coliforms were most frequently isolated from tap handles and diaper change areas. Contamination with fetal coliforms was wide-spread during diarrhea outbreaks. Fecal coliforms were recovered with significantly greater frequency from hands, toys and other classroom objects during outbreaks than during non-outbreak period. Salmonella typhimurium was recovered from a table top during an outbreak of Salmonellosis. There was no association between the level of enteric microbial contamination in the toilet areas and the occurrence of outbreaks. No evidence was found to indicate that enteric organisms were spread by the airborne route via aerosols.^ Toys, other classroom objects and contaminated hands probably play a major role in the transmission of enteropathogens during day-care center outbreaks. The presence of many enteric agents in the environment undoubtedly explains the polymicrobial etiology of the day-care center associated diarrhea outbreaks. ^