56 resultados para Model risk

em DigitalCommons@The Texas Medical Center


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Periodontal diseases (PD) are infectious, inflammatory, and tissue destructive events which affect the periodontal ligament that surround and support the teeth. Periodontal diseases are the major cause of tooth loss after age 35, with gingivitis and periodontitis affecting 75% of the adult population. A select group of bacterial organisms are associated with periodontal pathogenesis. There is a direct association between oral hygiene and prevention of PD. The importance of genetic differences and host immune response capabilities in determining host, susceptibility or resistance to PD has not been established. This study examined the risk factors and serum (humoral) immune response to periodontal diseased-associated pathogens in a 55 to 80+ year old South Texas study sample with PD. This study sample was described by: age, sex, ethnicity, the socioeconomic factors marital status, income and occupation, IgG, IgA, IgM immunoglobulin status, and the autoimmune response markers rheumatoid factor (RF) and antinuclear antibody (ANA). These variables were used to determine the risk factors associated with development of PD. Serum IgG, IgA, IgM antibodies to bacterial antigens provided evidence for disease exposure.^ A causal model for PD was constructed from associations for risk factors (ethnicity, marital status, income, and occupation) with dental exam and periodontitis. The multiple correlation between PD and ethnicity, income and dental exam was significant. Hispanics of low income were least likely to have had a dental exam in the last year and most likely to have PD. The etiologic agents for PD, as evidenced by elevated humoral antibody responses, were the Gram negative microorganisms Bacteroides gingivalis, serotypes FDC381 and SUNYaBA7A1-28, and Wolinella recta. Recommendation for a PD prevention and control program are provided. ^

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The potential for significant human populations to experience long-term inhalation of formaldehyde and reports of symptomatology due to this exposure has led to a considerable interest in the toxicologic assessment of risk from subchronic formaldehyde exposures using animal models. Since formaldehyde inhalation depresses certain respiratory parameters in addition to its other forms of toxicity, there is a potential for the alteration of the actual dose received by the exposed individual (and the resulting toxicity) due to this respiratory effect. The respiratory responses to formaldehyde inhalation and the subsequent pattern of deposition were therefore investigated in animals that had received subchronic exposure to the compound, and the potential for changes in the formaldehyde dose received due to long-term inhalation evaluated. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to either 0, 0.5, 3, or 15 ppm formaldehyde for 6 hours/day, 5 days/week for up to 6 months. The patterns of respiratory response, deposition and the compensation mechanisms involved were then determined in a series of formaldehyde test challenges to both the upper and to the lower respiratory tracts in separate groups of subchronically exposed animals and age-specific controls (four concentration groups, two time points). In both the control and pre-exposed animals, there was a characteristic recovery of respiratory parameters initially depressed by formaldehyde inhalation to at or approaching pre-exposure levels within 10 minutes of the initiation of exposure. Also, formaldehyde deposition was found to remain very high in the upper and lower tracts after long-term exposure. Therefore, there was probably little subsequent effect on the dose received by the exposed individual that was attributable to the repeated exposures. There was a diminished initial minute volume response in test challenges of both the upper and lower tracts of animals that had received at least 16 weeks of exposure to 15 ppm, with compensatory increases in tidal volume in the upper tract and respiratory rate in the lower tract. However, this dose-related effect was probably not relevant to human risk estimation because this formaldehyde dose is in excess of that experienced by human populations. ^

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ACCURACY OF THE BRCAPRO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN MALES PRESENTING TO MD ANDERSON FOR BRCA TESTING Publication No. _______ Carolyn A. Garby, B.S. Supervisory Professor: Banu Arun, M.D. Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) syndrome is due to mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Women with HBOC have high risks to develop breast and ovarian cancers. Males with HBOC are commonly overlooked because male breast cancer is rare and other male cancer risks such as prostate and pancreatic cancers are relatively low. BRCA genetic testing is indicated for men as it is currently estimated that 4-40% of male breast cancers result from a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation (Ottini, 2010) and management recommendations can be made based on genetic test results. Risk assessment models are available to provide the individualized likelihood to have a BRCA mutation. Only one study has been conducted to date to evaluate the accuracy of BRCAPro in males and was based on a cohort of Italian males and utilized an older version of BRCAPro. The objective of this study is to determine if BRCAPro5.1 is a valid risk assessment model for males who present to MD Anderson Cancer Center for BRCA genetic testing. BRCAPro has been previously validated for determining the probability of carrying a BRCA mutation, however has not been further examined particularly in males. The total cohort consisted of 152 males who had undergone BRCA genetic testing. The cohort was stratified by indication for genetic counseling. Indications included having a known familial BRCA mutation, having a personal diagnosis of a BRCA-related cancer, or having a family history suggestive of HBOC. Overall there were 22 (14.47%) BRCA1+ males and 25 (16.45%) BRCA2+ males. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for the cohort overall, for each particular indication, as well as for each cancer subtype. Our findings revealed that the BRCAPro5.1 model had perfect discriminating ability at a threshold of 56.2 for males with breast cancer, however only 2 (4.35%) of 46 were found to have BRCA2 mutations. These results are significantly lower than the high approximation (40%) reported in previous literature. BRCAPro does perform well in certain situations for men. Future investigation of male breast cancer and men at risk for BRCA mutations is necessary to provide a more accurate risk assessment.

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The risk of second malignant neoplasms (SMNs) following prostate radiotherapy is a concern due to the large population of survivors and decreasing age at diagnosis. It is known that parallel-opposed beam proton therapy carries a lower risk than photon IMRT. However, a comparison of SMN risk following proton and photon arc therapies has not previously been reported. The purpose of this study was to predict the ratio of excess relative risk (RRR) of SMN incidence following proton arc therapy to that after volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Additionally, we investigated the impact of margin size and the effect of risk-minimized proton beam weighting on predicted RRR. Physician-approved treatment plans were created for both modalities for three patients. Therapeutic dose was obtained with differential dose-volume histograms from the treatment planning system, and stray dose was estimated from the literature or calculated with Monte Carlo simulations. Then, various risk models were applied to the total dose. Additional treatment plans were also investigated with varying margin size and risk-minimized proton beam weighting. The mean RRR ranged from 0.74 to 0.99, depending on risk model. The additional treatment plans revealed that the RRR remained approximately constant with varying margin size, and that the predicted RRR was reduced by 12% using a risk-minimized proton arc therapy planning technique. In conclusion, proton arc therapy was found to provide an advantage over VMAT in regard to predicted risk of SMN following prostate radiotherapy. This advantage was independent of margin size and was amplified with risk-optimized proton beam weighting.

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BACKGROUND: : Women at increased risk of breast cancer (BC) are not widely accepting of chemopreventive interventions, and ethnic minorities are underrepresented in related trials. Furthermore, there is no validated instrument to assess the health-seeking behavior of these women with respect to these interventions. METHODS: : By using constructs from the Health Belief Model, the authors developed and refined, based on pilot data, the Breast Cancer Risk Reduction Health Belief (BCRRHB) scale using a population of 265 women at increased risk of BC who were largely medically underserved, of low socioeconomic status (SES), and ethnic minorities. Construct validity was assessed using principal components analysis with oblique rotation to extract factors, and generate and interpret summary scales. Internal consistency was determined using Cronbach alpha coefficients. RESULTS: : Test-retest reliability for the pilot and final data was calculated to be r = 0.85. Principal components analysis yielded 16 components that explained 64% of the total variance, with communalities ranging from 0.50-0.75. Cronbach alpha coefficients for the extracted factors ranged from 0.45-0.77. CONCLUSIONS: : Evidence suggests that the BCRRHB yields reliable and valid data that allows for the identification of barriers and enhancing factors associated with use of breast cancer chemoprevention in the study population. These findings allow for tailoring treatment plans and intervention strategies to the individual. Future research is needed to validate the scale for use in other female populations. Cancer 2009. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society.

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Background: Despite effective solutions to reduce teen birth rates, Texas teen birth rates are among the highest in the nation. School districts can impact youth sexual behavior through implementation of evidence-based programs (EBPs); however, teen pregnancy prevention is a complex and controversial issue for school districts. Subsequently, very few districts in Texas implement EBPs for pregnancy prevention. Additionally, school districts receive little guidance on the process for finding, adopting, and implementing EBPs. Purpose: The purpose of this report is to present the CHoosing And Maintaining Programs for Sex education in Schools (CHAMPSS) Model, a practical and realistic framework to help districts find, adopt, and implement EBPs. Methods: Model development occurred in four phases using the core processes of Intervention Mapping: 1) knowledge acquisition, 2) knowledge engineering, 3) model representation, and 4) knowledge development. Results: The CHAMPSS Model provides seven steps, tailored for school-based settings, which encompass phases of assessment, preparation, implementation, and maintenance: Prioritize, Asses, Select, Approve, Prepare, Implement, and Maintain. Advocacy and eliciting support for adolescent sexual health are also core elements of the model. Conclusion: This systematic framework may help schools increase adoption, implementation, and maintenance for EBPs.

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Getting evidence-based sexual health education activities into schools can be a complicated process. Working models that assist our educational system in the selection, implementation, and maintenance of effective school-based adolescent health programs are needed. Replicating sexual health programs in school-based settings: A model for schools provides a comprehensive and applied approach that engages all of the important stakeholders within a school district. The results from this study hold much potential to inform Texas and the nation about how a coordinated and practical model can assist school districts to increase the use of evidence-based programs addressing teen pregnancy prevention and sexual health issues.

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In 2011, there will be an estimated 1,596,670 new cancer cases and 571,950 cancer-related deaths in the US. With the ever-increasing applications of cancer genetics in epidemiology, there is great potential to identify genetic risk factors that would help identify individuals with increased genetic susceptibility to cancer, which could be used to develop interventions or targeted therapies that could hopefully reduce cancer risk and mortality. In this dissertation, I propose to develop a new statistical method to evaluate the role of haplotypes in cancer susceptibility and development. This model will be flexible enough to handle not only haplotypes of any size, but also a variety of covariates. I will then apply this method to three cancer-related data sets (Hodgkin Disease, Glioma, and Lung Cancer). I hypothesize that there is substantial improvement in the estimation of association between haplotypes and disease, with the use of a Bayesian mathematical method to infer haplotypes that uses prior information from known genetics sources. Analysis based on haplotypes using information from publically available genetic sources generally show increased odds ratios and smaller p-values in both the Hodgkin, Glioma, and Lung data sets. For instance, the Bayesian Joint Logistic Model (BJLM) inferred haplotype TC had a substantially higher estimated effect size (OR=12.16, 95% CI = 2.47-90.1 vs. 9.24, 95% CI = 1.81-47.2) and more significant p-value (0.00044 vs. 0.008) for Hodgkin Disease compared to a traditional logistic regression approach. Also, the effect sizes of haplotypes modeled with recessive genetic effects were higher (and had more significant p-values) when analyzed with the BJLM. Full genetic models with haplotype information developed with the BJLM resulted in significantly higher discriminatory power and a significantly higher Net Reclassification Index compared to those developed with haplo.stats for lung cancer. Future analysis for this work could be to incorporate the 1000 Genomes project, which offers a larger selection of SNPs can be incorporated into the information from known genetic sources as well. Other future analysis include testing non-binary outcomes, like the levels of biomarkers that are present in lung cancer (NNK), and extending this analysis to full GWAS studies.

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Stroke is the third leading cause of death and a major debilitating disease in the United States. Multiple factors, including genetic factors, contribute to the development of the disease. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have contributed to the identification of genetic loci influencing risk for complex diseases, such as stroke. In 2010, a GWAS of incident stroke was performed in four large prospective cohorts from the USA and Europe and identified an association of two Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 12p13 with a greater risk of ischemic stroke in individuals of European and African-American ancestry. These SNPs are located 11 Kb upstream of the nerve injury-induced gene 2, Ninjurin2 (NINJ2), suggesting that this gene may be involved in stroke pathogenesis. NINJ2 is a cell adhesion molecule induced in the distal glial cells from a sciatic-nerve injury at 7-days after injury. In an effort to ascribe a possible role of NINJ2 in stroke, we have assessed changes in the level of gene and protein expression of NINJ2 following a time-course from a transiently induced middle cerebral artery ischemic stroke in mice brains. We report an increase in the gene expression of NINJ2 in the ischemic and peri-infarct (ipsilateral) cortical tissues at 7 and 14-days after stroke. We also report an increase in the protein expression of NINJ2 in the cortex of both the ipsilateral and contralateral cortical tissues at the same time-points. We conclude that the expression of NINJ2 is regulated by an ischemic stroke in the cortex and is consistent with NINJ2 being involved in the recovery time-points of stroke.

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The cause of testicular cancer is not known and recent hypotheses have suggested an altered hormonal milieu may increase the risk of testis cancer. This study examined modulation of testicular cancer risk by hormonal factors, specifically: environmental xenoestrogens (e.g. organochlorines), prenatal maternal estrogens, testosterone indices (age at puberty, severe adolescent acne, self-reported balding), sedentary lifestyle and dietary consumption of fats and phytoestrogens.^ A hospital based friend matched case-control study was conducted at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas, between January 1990 and October 1996. Cases had a first primary testis tumor diagnosed between age 18 to 50 years and resided in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma or Arkansas.^ Cases and friend controls completed a mail questionnaire and case/control mothers were contacted by phone regarding pregnancy related variables. The study population comprised 187 cases, 148 controls, 147 case mothers and 86 control mothers. Odds ratios were virtually identical whether the match was retained or dissolved, thus the analyses were conducted using unconditional logistic regression.^ Cryptorchidism was a strong risk factor for testis cancer with an age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 7.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-26.3). In a final model (adjusted for age, education, and cryptorchidism), history of severe adolescent acne and self-reported balding were both significantly protective, as hypothesized. For acne (yes vs. no) the OR was 0.5 (CI: 0.3-1.0) and for balding (yes vs. no) the OR was 0.6 (CI: 0.3-1.0). Marijuana smoking was a risk factor among heavy, regular users (17 times/week, OR = 2.4; CI: 0.9-6.4) and higher saturated fat intake increased testis cancer risk (saturated fat intake $>$ 15.2 grams/day vs. $<$ 11.8 grams/day, OR = 3.3; CI: 1.5-7.1). Early puberty, xenoestrogen exposure, elevated maternal estrogen levels, sedentary lifestyle and dietary phytoestrogen intake were not associated with risk of testicular cancer.^ In conclusion, testicular cancer may be associated with endogenous androgen metabolism although environmental estrogen exposure can not be ruled out. Further research is needed to understand the underlying hormonal mechanisms and possible dietary influences. ^

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The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relationship between key psychosocial and behavioral components of the Transtheoretical Model and the Theory of Reasoned Action for sexual risk reduction in a population of crack cocaine smokers and sex workers, not in drug treatment. ^ The first study examined the results of an analysis of the association between two principal constructs in the Transtheoretical Model, the processes of change and the stages of change for condom use, in a high risk population. In the analysis of variance for all respondents, the overall F-test revealed that people in different stages have different levels of experiential process use, F(3,317) = 17.79, p = 0.0001 and different levels of behavioral process use, F(3,317) = 28.59, p = .0001. For the experiential processes, there was a significant difference between the precontemplation/contemplation stage, and both the action, and maintenance, stages.^ The second study explored the relationship between the Theory of Reasoned Action “beliefs” and the stages-of-change in the same population. In the analysis of variance for all participants, the results indicate that people in different stages did value the positive beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 15.38, p = .0001 but did not value the negative beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 2.08, p = .10. ^ The third study explored differences in stage-of-change by gender, partner type drug use, and HIV status. Three discriminant functions emerged, with a combined χ2(12) = 139.57, p = <.0001. The loading matrix of correlations between predictors and discriminant functions demonstrate that the strongest predictor for distinguishing between the precontemplation/contemplation stage and the preparation, action, and maintenance stages (first function) is partner type (.962). The loadings on the second discriminant function suggest that once partner type has been accounted for, ever having HIV/AIDS (.935) was the best predictor for distinguishing between the first three stages and the maintenance stage. ^ These studies demonstrate that behavioral change theories can contribute important insight to researchers and program planners attempting to alter HIV risk behavior in high-risk populations. ^

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The relationship between MMAC/PTEN, DMBT1 and the progression and prognosis of glioma, and the association between the alterations of MMAC/PTEN, p53, p16, and Rb and some cancer risk factors, such as smoking, exposure to radiation, family cancer history, and previous cancer history, were assessed in 4 studies. ^ By allelic deletion analysis, MMAC/PTEN locus was shown to be frequently lost in glioblastomas multiforme (GM) but maintained in most lower-grade astrocytic tumors. DMBT1 locus, however, was frequently lost in all grades of gliomas examined. The potential biological significance of these two regions was frontier assessed by examining microcell-hybrids that contained various fragments of 10q. Somatic cell hybrid clones that retained the MMAC/PTEN locus have less transformed phenotypes, exhibiting an inability to grow in soft agarose. On the other hand, the presence or absence of DAMT1 did not correlate with any in vitro phenotype assessed in our model system. Further, Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, adjusted for age at surgery and histologic grades (GM, and non-GM), showed that without LOH at the MMAC/PTEN locus had a significantly better prognosis than did patients with LOH at MMAC/ PTEN (hazard ratio = 0.5; 95% Cl = 0.28–0.89; P = 0.018). Furthermore, status of LOH at MMAC/PTEN was found to be significantly associated with age, while that for DMBT1 was not. These results suggest that the DMBT1 may be involved early in the oncogenesis of gliomas, while alterations in the MMAC /PTEN may be a late event in the oncogenesis related with progression of gliomas and provide a significant prognostic marker for patient survival. ^ The associations between 4 cancer risk factors and 4 tumor suppressor genes were assessed. The expression of p16 was observed to be associated with current smoking (adjusted OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.02–3.6) but not the former smoking (adjusted OR = 1.1, 95% Cl = 0.5–3.5). The expression of p53 was found to be associated with the family cancer history (OR = 3.5, 95% Cl = 1.07–11 for patients with first-degree family history of cancer). MMAC/ PTEN was associated with the histologic grade (OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.2–6.6) and age (P = 0.035). Also, the OR for LOH around MMAC/PTEN in patients with a family history of cancer was elevated (OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 0.8–4.6 for patients with first-degree family history of cancer). The associations between exposure and the alterations of tumor suppressor genes, between smoking and p16, between family history of cancer and p53 and MMAC/PTEN, provide suggestive evidences that those exposures are related to the development of gliomas. ^

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Blood cholesterol and blood pressure development in childhood and adolescence have important impact on the future adult level of cholesterol and blood pressure, and on increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. The U.S. has higher mortality rates of coronary heart diseases than Japan. A longitudinal comparison in children of risk factor development in the two countries provides more understanding about the causes of cardiovascular disease and its prevention. Such comparisons have not been reported in the past. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 506 non-Hispanic white, 136 black and 369 Japanese children participated in the study in the U.S. and Japan from 1991 to 1995. A synthetic cohort of ages 8 to 18 years was composed by three cohorts with starting ages at 8, 11, and 14. A multilevel regression model was used for data analysis. ^ The study revealed that the Japanese children had significantly higher slopes of mean total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels than the U.S. children after adjusting for age and sex. The mean TC level of Japanese children was not significantly different from white and black children. The mean HDL level of Japanese children was significantly higher than white and black children after adjusting for age and sex. The ratio of HDL/TC in Japanese children was significantly higher than in U.S. whites, but not significantly different from the black children. The Japanese group had significantly lower mean diastolic blood pressure phase IV (DBP4) and phase V (DBP5) than the two U.S. groups. The Japanese group also showed significantly higher slopes in systolic blood pressure, DBP5 and DBP4 during the study period than both U.S. groups. The differences were independent from height and body mass index. ^ The study provided the first longitudinal comparison of blood cholesterol and blood pressure between the U.S. and Japanese children and adolescents. It revealed the dynamic process of these factors in the three ethnic groups. ^

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The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm based on a multivariable logistic model that can be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. This algorithm, the Risk Index Score (RISc), was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christ (BASIC) project. The validity of the RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment accomplished by physician review of hospital admission records. The goal of this study was to develop a rapid, simple, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain the incidence of stroke from routine hospital admission hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. ^ The main objectives of this study were to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm based on a multivariable logistic model that could be translated into a simple scoring system to ascertain stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

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The purpose of this study was to determine whether depression is a factor in explaining the difference in sex behaviors among adolescents with different ethnic backgrounds, family and school contexts. We hypothesize that adolescents with a higher number of depressive symptoms are more likely to engage in sexual risk behaviors than adolescents with fewer depressive symptoms. Further, adolescent depression and sexual behaviors are mediated or moderated by individual characteristics, family and school contexts. ^ Background. large ethnic disparities exist in adolescent engagement in risky sexual behaviors, yet, there is little in the literature that explains these disparities. Studies of sexual behavior of youths abound; yet, there is little literature on the prevalence and correlates of depression or the association between depression and sexual behaviors among different ethnic groups. Objectives. (1) To determine ethnic differences in the prevalence of depressive symptoms using data collected through the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). (2) To determine predictors of sex risk behaviors among adolescents, including the role of depression. (3) To identify predictors of depression among these adolescents. Methods. Add Health data from wave 1 and wave 2 interviews of 7th–12th graders were analyzed using multivariate models constructed with both depression and sexual behavior as outcome variables. Logistic regression models determined whether and to what extent the independent variables, including depression, sex behaviors, demographic factors, individual and family characteristics, and school context were related to the probability of engaging in risky sexual behaviors. Results. Ethnic differences in depressive symptoms did not persist after demographic and contextual variables were included in the model. Sex behaviors all shared the hypothesized relationship with depressive symptoms. The odds of risky sex behaviors increased as number of depressive symptoms increased. Depression was predicted by marijuana use and having a serious argument with father for males at Wave 1 and by age and future orientation for females. Wave 2 depression was predicted by Wave 1 depression. ^