Predictive oncology: a review of multidisciplinary, multiscale in silico modeling linking phenotype, morphology and growth.

Empirical evidence and theoretical studies suggest that the phenotype, i.e., cellular- and molecular-scale dynamics, including proliferation rate and adhesiveness due to microenvironmental factors and gene expression that govern tumor growth and invasiveness, also determine gross tumor-scale morphology. It has been difficult to quantify the relative effect of these links on disease progression and prognosis using conventional clinical and experimental methods and observables. As a result, successful individualized treatment of highly malignant and invasive cancers, such as glioblastoma, via surgical resection and chemotherapy cannot be offered and outcomes are generally poor. What is needed is a deterministic, quantifiable method to enable understanding of the connections between phenotype and tumor morphology. Here, we critically assess advantages and disadvantages of recent computational modeling efforts (e.g., continuum, discrete, and cellular automata models) that have pursued this understanding. Based on this assessment, we review a multiscale, i.e., from the molecular to the gross tumor scale, mathematical and computational "first-principle" approach based on mass conservation and other physical laws, such as employed in reaction-diffusion systems. Model variables describe known characteristics of tumor behavior, and parameters and functional relationships across scales are informed from in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo biology. We review the feasibility of this methodology that, once coupled to tumor imaging and tumor biopsy or cell culture data, should enable prediction of tumor growth and therapy outcome through quantification of the relation between the underlying dynamics and morphological characteristics. In particular, morphologic stability analysis of this mathematical model reveals that tumor cell patterning at the tumor-host interface is regulated by cell proliferation, adhesion and other phenotypic characteristics: histopathology information of tumor boundary can be inputted to the mathematical model and used as a phenotype-diagnostic tool to predict collective and individual tumor cell invasion of surrounding tissue. This approach further provides a means to deterministically test effects of novel and hypothetical therapy strategies on tumor behavior.

Commentary on “Connecting the Dots: Families and Children with Special Needs in a Rural Community”

Starks et al. discuss an evaluation of educational initiatives to improve rural systems of care for children with special needs. Akin to the medical home neighborhood concept, building a holistic medical "village" entails improving collaboration, sharing accountability, and helping families to navigate the health care system. The article suggests that policymakers should include patient experiences of care in program evaluation, and they should build a community infrastructure for shared information and efficient communication.

Knowledge, beliefs, risk behaviors, and social skills for HIV/STD prevention in junior college students (grades 11--12) in Bombay, India

1230 year 11 and 12 college students, modal age 16 and 17, in three colleges in Bombay, India, were studied on sexual behaviors or risk of sexual behaviors, beliefs about sex, HIV/STD knowledge, perceived norms regarding sexual behaviors, and the relationships between social skills/anxieties in HIV/STD prevention and actual and anticipated sexual behaviors. A quantitative questionnaire examining HIV/STD risk behaviors, knowledge, attitudes and beliefs, and the AIDS Social Assertiveness Scale (ASAS) were administered to these 1230 college students. Data indicated that 8% of males and 1% of females had had sexual experience, but over one third were not sure at all of being able to abstain from sexual activity with either steady or casual partners. Perceived norms were slanted toward sexual abstinence for the majority of the sample. Knowledge of protective effects of condoms was high, although half of those who had had sex did not use condoms. Logistic regression showed knowledge was higher among males, those who believed it was OK to have sex with a steady partner and that they should not wait until they were older, those who believed that condoms should be used even if the partner is known, and those who believed it was acceptable to have multiple partners. Gender differences in sexual activity and beliefs about sexual activity showed males were less likely to believe in abstaining from sexual activity. The 5 scales of the ASAS were scored and compared on ANOVA on: those who had had sexual experience (HS), those who anticipated being unable to refuse sex (AS), and those who did not anticipate problems in refusing sex (DS). Those in the AS group had greater anxieties about refusing sexual or other risk behaviors than HS and DS groups. There were greater anxieties about dealing with condoms in the AS and DS groups compared with the HS group. Confiding sexual or HIV/STD-related problems to significant others was more anxiety-provoking for the AS group compared with the HS group, and the AS group were more anxious about interactions with people with HIV. Factor analysis produced the same 5 factors as those found in previous studies. Of these, condom interactions and confiding in significant others were most anxiety provoking, and condom interactions most variable based on demographic and attitudinal factors.^ This age group is appropriate for HIV/STD reduction education given the low rate of sexual activity but despite knowledge of the importance of condom use, social skills to apply this knowledge are lacking. Social skills training in sexual negotiations, condom negotiations, and confiding HIV/STD-related concerns to significant others should reduce the risks of Indian college students having unwanted or unprotected sex. ^

Evaluation of androgenicity, abdominal adiposity, blood pressure and types of ovulatory patterns in a sample of women with menstrual irregularities

Objective: To determine the prevalence of and the relationships between the degree and source of hyperandrogenemia, ovulatory patterns and cardiovascular disease risk indicators (blood pressure, indices or amount of obesity and fat distribution) in women with menstrual irregularities seen at endocrinologists' clinic. Design: A cross-sectional study design. Participants: A sample of 159 women with menstrual irregularities, aged 15-44, seen at endocrinologists' clinic. Main Outcome Measures: androgen levels, body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP & DBP), source of androgens, ovulatory activity. Results: The prevalence of hyperandrogenemia was 54.7% in this study sample. As expected, women with acne or hirsutism had an odds ratio 12.5 (95%CI = 5.2-25.5) times and 36 (95%CI = 12.9-99.5) times more likely to have hyperandrogenemia than those without acne or hirsutism. The main findings of this study were the following: Hyperandrogenemic women were more likely to have oligomenorrheic cycles (OR = 3.8, 95%CI = 1.5-9.9), anovulatory cycles (OR = 6.6, 95%CI = 2.8-15.4), general obesity (BMI $\ge$ 27) (OR = 6.8, 95%CI = 2.2-27.2) and central obesity (WHR $\ge$ 127) (OR = 14.5, 95%CI = 6.1-38.7) than euandrogenemic women. Hyperandrogenemic women with non-suppressible androgens had a higher mean BMI (29.3 $\pm$ 8.9) than those with suppressible androgens (27.9 $\pm$ 7.9); the converse was true for abdominal adiposity (WHR). Hyperandrogenemic women had a 2.4 odds ratio (95%CI = 1.0-6.2) for an elevated SBP and a 2.7 odds ratio (95%CI = 0.8-8.8) for elevated DBP. When age differences were accounted for, this relationship was strengthened and further strengthened when sources of androgens were controlled. When the differences in BMI were controlled, the odds ratio for elevated SBP in hyperandrogenemic women increased to 8.8 (95%CI = 1.1-69.9). When the age, the source of androgens, the amount of obesity and the type of obesity were controlled, hyperandrogenemic women had 13.5 (95%CI = 1.1-158.9) odds ratio for elevated SBP. Conclusions: In this study population, the presence of menstrual irregularities are highly predictive for the presence of elevated androgens. Women with elevated androgens have a high risk for obesity, more specifically for central obesity. The androgenemic status is an independent predictor of blood pressure elevation. It is probable that in the general population, the presence of menstrual irregularities are predictive of hyperandrogenemia. There is a great need for a population study of the prevalence of hyperandrogenemia and for longitudinal studies in hyperandrogenemic women (adrenarche to menopause) to investigate the evolution of these relationships. ^

Hospital and environmental variation in Texas nonprofit hospital organizational policies regarding charity care

The 2005 Annual Statement of Community Benefits Standard (ASCBS) and the annual report of the Community Benefits Plan, Summary of Current Hospital Charity Care Policy and Community Benefits, were used to identify various environmental and policy relationships with regard to eligibility for charity care requirements, a component for meeting the nonprofit requirements established by the Texas Legislature for nonprofit tax exemption (Texas Health and Safety Code, §311.04610). ^ Charity care policies are established by the individual hospital (or systems) and are generally defined as rules concerning care provided by the institution without the expectation of payment. This study has been undertaken to provide specific information about the charity care eligibility requirement policies of nonprofit hospitals. These hospitals are the part of the safety net for those persons who are indigent, low-income and uninsured. This study examines nonprofit hospitals by physical location, bed size, religious affiliation, trauma level, disproportionate share, and teaching designations. County information includes population, percentage of residents eligible for Medicaid benefits, ethnic makeup of county residents, poverty level, designation of a hospital district or operators of a public hospital, and the number of nonprofit and for-profit hospitals located in the county. Although this information has been collected by the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS), no other analysis has been conducted. ^

HIV disclosure decisions and social support among African-American women in Houston, Texas

African Americans make up 12.3% of the population but account for over half of the new HIV cases and 39% of the AIDS cases in 2003 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2003). African American women in particular accounted for 64% of these cases of HIV and 60% of the AIDS cases (Leigh & Huff, 2003). This study contributed to the knowledge about the disclosure process of women living with HIV/AIDS by documenting the relationship between social support and the disclosure process in the African American HIV/AIDS population.^ The study aims were to: (1) discuss the participants' self concept of support; (2) describe the common characteristics of the disclosure process; and (3) evaluate the common characteristics of support sought in a potential disclosure source. The ethnographic qualitative methodology was utilized to elicit participant narratives of HIV disclosure and social support. The researcher utilized a key informant interview methodology building on existing social and organizational relationships (Krueger, 1994) to gain access to the population. ^ Semi-structured interviews are a widely used and accepted qualitative research method for use with hard to reach populations and sensitive topics. Ten participants completed a 45 to 60 minute, one on one semi-structured interview covering social support and disclosure variables. Inclusion and exclusion criteria included: (1) self identified as a person living with HIV/AIDS; (2) African American); (3) female; (4) age 18-64 years old, (5) residence in Houston or surrounding counties.^ Themes generated from the interviews were (1) nondisclosure, (2) experiences with disclosure, (3) timing, (4) disclosure sources, and (5) coping. The themes suggest African American women living with HIV/AIDS come from different lifestyles but share similar experiences. Women utilize different strategies such as deciphering whom to trust and determining how much information to divulge in order to protect themselves or others.^ Although the sample group was small for this study, the results inform us about the various experiences each woman goes through as it relates to social support and disclosure and that each woman has to customize her response to the type of support she is receiving and her personal attitude about her disease.^

COSTS AND EFFECTS OF ARKANSAS' LONG-TERM CARE DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (MEDICAID, CHANELLING, COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT)

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the Arkansas Long-Term Care Demonstration Project upon Arkansas' Medicaid expenditures and upon the clients it serves. A Retrospective Medicaid expenditure study component used analyses of variance techniques to test for the Project's effects upon aggregated expenditures for 28 demonstration and control counties representing 25 percent of the State's population over four years, 1979-1982.^ A second approach to the study question utilized a 1982 prospective sample of 458 demonstration and control clients from the same 28 counties. The disability level or need for care of each patient was established a priori. The extent to which an individual's variation in Medicaid utilization and costs was explained by patient need, presence or absence of the channeling project's placement decision or some other patient characteristic was examined by multiple regression analysis. Long-term and acute care Medicaid, Medicare, third party, self-pay and the grand total of all Medicaid claims were analyzed for project effects and explanatory relationships.^ The main project effect was to increase personal care costs without reducing nursing home or acute care costs (Prospective Study). Expansion of clients appeared to occur in personal care (Prospective Study) and minimum care nursing home (Retrospective Study) for the project areas. Cost-shifting between Medicaid and Medicare in the project areas and two different patterns of utilization in the North and South projects tended to offset each other such that no differences in total costs between the project areas and demonstration areas occurred. The project was significant ((beta) = .22, p < .001) only for personal care costs. The explanatory power of this personal care regression model (R('2) = .36) was comparable to other reported health services utilization models. Other variables (Medicare buy-in, level of disability, Social Security Supplemental Income (SSI), net monthly income, North/South areas and age) explained more variation in the other twelve cost regression models. ^