Slope estimation in a parametric measurement error model: A simulation study

In regression analysis, covariate measurement error occurs in many applications. The error-prone covariates are often referred to as latent variables. In this proposed study, we extended the study of Chan et al. (2008) on recovering latent slope in a simple regression model to that in a multiple regression model. We presented an approach that applied the Monte Carlo method in the Bayesian framework to the parametric regression model with the measurement error in an explanatory variable. The proposed estimator applied the conditional expectation of latent slope given the observed outcome and surrogate variables in the multiple regression models. A simulation study was presented showing that the method produces estimator that is efficient in the multiple regression model, especially when the measurement error variance of surrogate variable is large.^

Evaluation of the causal pathways through which subjective norms influence mammography intention and stage of change in a national sample of women veterans

Few studies have investigated causal pathways linking psychosocial factors to each other and to screening mammography. Conflicting hypotheses exist in the theoretic literature regarding the role and importance of subjective norms, a person's perceived social pressure to perform the behavior and his/her motivation to comply. The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) hypothesizes that subjective norms directly affect intention; while the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) hypothesizes that attitudes mediate the influence of subjective norms on stage of change. No one has examined which hypothesis best predicts the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change. Two statistical methods are available for testing mediation, sequential regression analysis (SRA) and latent variable structural equation modeling (LVSEM); however, software to apply LVSEM to dichotomous variables like intention has only recently become available. No one has compared the methods to determine whether or not they yield similar results for dichotomous variables. ^ Study objectives were to: (1) determine whether the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change are mediated by pros and cons; and (2) compare mediation results from the SRA and LVSEM approaches when the outcome is dichotomous. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a national sample of women veterans enrolled in Project H.O.M.E. (H&barbelow;ealthy O&barbelow;utlook on the M&barbelow;ammography E&barbelow;xperience), a behavioral intervention trial. ^ Results showed that the TTM model described the causal pathways better than the TRA one; however, we found support for only one of the TTM causal mechanisms. Cons was the sole mediator. The mediated effect of subjective norms on intention and stage of change by cons was very small. These findings suggest that interventionists focus their efforts on reducing negative attitudes toward mammography when resources are limited. ^ Both the SRA and LVSEM methods provided evidence for complete mediation, and the direction, magnitude, and standard errors of the parameter estimates were very similar. Because SRA parameter estimates were not biased toward the null, we can probably assume negligible measurement error in the independent and mediator variables. Simulation studies are needed to further our understanding of how these two methods perform under different data conditions. ^

Epidemiologic and methodological issues in serial measurements of blood pressure: The blood pressure study in Mexican children

The Blood Pressure Study in Mexican Children (BPSMC) is a short term longitudinal study of serial blood pressure collected in three observation periods by standardized examinations of 233 female children, 10 to 12 years of age, enrolled in public and private primary schools in Tlalpan, Mexico. Study objectives were: (1) to describe from baseline information the distribution and relationship of blood pressure to age and selected anthropometric factors, as well as to compare the BPSMC results with other blood pressure studies, (2) to examine the sources and amount of variation present in serial blood pressure of 123 children, and (3) to evaluate observer performance by means of intra- and inter-observer variability.^ Stepwise regression results from baseline revealed that of all anthropometric factors and age, weight was the best predictor for blood pressure.^ The results of serial blood pressure measurements show that, besides the known sources of blood pressure variability (subject, day, reading), the physiologic event of menarche has an important bearing upon the variability and characterization of blood pressure in young girls. The assessment of the effects of blood pressure variability and reliability upon the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, became apparent among post-menarcheal girls; where blood pressure measurements taken from them have low reliability. Research is needed to propose alternatives for assessing blood pressure during puberty.^ Finally, observer performance of blood pressure and anthropometry were evaluated. Anthropometric measurements had reliabilities in excess of R = 0.96. Acceptable reliabilities (R = 0.88 to 0.95) were obtained for systolic and diastolic (phase 4 and 5) blood pressures. The BPSMC showed a 50 percent decrease in measurement error from the first to the third observation periods. ^

Measurement of the vascular input function in mice for DCE-MRI

DCE-MRI is an important technique in the study of small animal cancer models because its sensitivity to vascular changes opens the possibility of quantitative assessment of early therapeutic response. However, extraction of physiologically descriptive parameters from DCE-MRI data relies upon measurement of the vascular input function (VIF), which represents the contrast agent concentration time course in the blood plasma. This is difficult in small animal models due to artifacts associated with partial volume, inflow enhancement, and the limited temporal resolution achievable with MR imaging. In this work, the development of a suite of techniques for high temporal resolution, artifact resistant measurement of the VIF in mice is described. One obstacle in VIF measurement is inflow enhancement, which decreases the sensitivity of the MR signal to the presence of contrast agent. Because the traditional techniques used to suppress inflow enhancement degrade the achievable spatiotemporal resolution of the pulse sequence, improvements can be achieved by reducing the time required for the suppression. Thus, a novel RF pulse which provides spatial presaturation contemporaneously with the RF excitation was implemented and evaluated. This maximizes the achievable temporal resolution by removing the additional RF and gradient pulses typically required for suppression of inflow enhancement. A second challenge is achieving the temporal resolution required for accurate characterization of the VIF, which exceeds what can be achieved with conventional imaging techniques while maintaining adequate spatial resolution and tumor coverage. Thus, an anatomically constrained reconstruction strategy was developed that allows for sampling of the VIF at extremely high acceleration factors, permitting capture of the initial pass of the contrast agent in mice. Simulation, phantom, and in vivo validation of all components were performed. Finally, the two components were used to perform VIF measurement in the murine heart. An in vivo study of the VIF reproducibility was performed, and an improvement in the measured injection-to-injection variation was observed. This will lead to improvements in the reliability of quantitative DCE-MRI measurements and increase their sensitivity.

Activity of anidulafungin in a murine model of Candida krusei infection: evaluation of mortality and disease burden by quantitative tissue cultures and measurement of serum (1,3)-beta-D-glucan levels.

Experience with anidulafungin against Candida krusei is limited. Immunosuppressed mice were injected with 1.3 x 10(7) to 1.5 x 10(7) CFU of C. krusei. Animals were treated with saline, 40 mg/kg fluconazole, 1 mg/kg amphotericin B, or 10 and 20 mg/kg anidulafungin for 5 days. Anidulafungin improved survival and significantly reduced the number of CFU/g in kidneys and serum beta-glucan levels.

Structural equation modeling of the medical outcome study: Short Form 36 (SF-36)

The factorial validity of the SF-36 was evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) methods, structural equation modeling (SEM), and multigroup structural equation modeling (MSEM). First, the measurement and structural model of the hypothesized SF-36 was explicated. Second, the model was tested for the validity of a second-order factorial structure, upon evidence of model misfit, determined the best-fitting model, and tested the validity of the best-fitting model on a second random sample from the same population. Third, the best-fitting model was tested for invariance of the factorial structure across race, age, and educational subgroups using MSEM.^ The findings support the second-order factorial structure of the SF-36 as proposed by Ware and Sherbourne (1992). However, the results suggest that: (a) Mental Health and Physical Health covary; (b) general mental health cross-loads onto Physical Health; (c) general health perception loads onto Mental Health instead of Physical Health; (d) many of the error terms are correlated; and (e) the physical function scale is not reliable across these two samples. This hierarchical factor pattern was replicated across both samples of health care workers, suggesting that the post hoc model fitting was not data specific. Subgroup analysis suggests that the physical function scale is not reliable across the "age" or "education" subgroups and that the general mental health scale path from Mental Health is not reliable across the "white/nonwhite" or "education" subgroups.^ The importance of this study is in the use of SEM and MSEM in evaluating sample data from the use of the SF-36. These methods are uniquely suited to the analysis of latent variable structures and are widely used in other fields. The use of latent variable models for self reported outcome measures has become widespread, and should now be applied to medical outcomes research. Invariance testing is superior to mean scores or summary scores when evaluating differences between groups. From a practical, as well as, psychometric perspective, it seems imperative that construct validity research related to the SF-36 establish whether this same hierarchical structure and invariance holds for other populations.^ This project is presented as three articles to be submitted for publication. ^

MEASUREMENT OF TUMOR BLOOD FLOW FOLLOWING NEUTRON IRRADIATION (ACTIVATION)

Clinical oncologists and cancer researchers benefit from information on the vascularization or non-vascularization of solid tumors because of blood flow's influence on three popular treatment types: hyperthermia therapy, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The objective of this research is the development of a clinically useful tumor blood flow measurement technique. The designed technique is sensitive, has good spatial resolution, in non-invasive and presents no risk to the patient beyond his usual treatment (measurements will be subsequent only to normal patient treatment).^ Tumor blood flow was determined by measuring the washout of positron emitting isotopes created through neutron therapy treatment. In order to do this, several technical and scientific questions were addressed first. These questions were: (1) What isotopes are created in tumor tissue when it is irradiated in a neutron therapy beam and how much of each isotope is expected? (2) What are the chemical states of the isotopes that are potentially useful for blood flow measurements and will those chemical states allow these or other isotopes to be washed out of the tumor? (3) How should isotope washout by blood flow be modeled in order to most effectively use the data? These questions have been answered through both theoretical calculation and measurement.^ The first question was answered through the measurement of macroscopic cross sections for the predominant nuclear reactions in the body. These results correlate well with an independent mathematical prediction of tissue activation and measurements of mouse spleen neutron activation. The second question was addressed by performing cell suspension and protein precipitation techniques on neutron activated mouse spleens. The third and final question was answered by using first physical principles to develop a model mimicking the blood flow system and measurement technique.^ In a final set of experiments, the above were applied to flow models and animals. The ultimate aim of this project is to apply its methodology to neutron therapy patients. ^

Measurement and correlates of physical activity behavior among older minority women

Research has shown that physical activity serves a preventive function against the development of several major chronic diseases. However, studying physical activity and its health benefits is difficult due to the complexity of measuring physical activity. The overall aim of this research is to contribute to the knowledge of both correlates and measurement of physical activity. Data from the Women On The Move study were used for this study (n = 260), and the results are presented in three papers. The first paper focuses on the measurement of physical activity and compares an alternate coding method with the standard coding method for calculating energy expenditure from a 7-day activity diary. Results indicate that the alternative coding scheme could produce similar results to the standard coding in terms of total activity expenditure. Even though agreement could not be achieved by dimension, the study lays the groundwork for a coding system that saves considerable amount of time in coding activity and has the ability to estimate expenditure more accurately for activities that can be performed at varying intensity levels. The second paper investigates intra-day variability in physical activity by estimating the variation in energy expenditure for workers and non-workers and identifying the number of days of diary self-report necessary to reliably estimate activity. The results indicate that 8 days of activity are needed to reliably estimate total activity for individuals who don't work and 12 days of activity are needed to reliably estimate total activity for those who work. Days of diary self-report required by dimension for those who don't work range from 6 to 16 and for those who work from 6 to 113. The final paper presents findings on the relationship between daily living activity and Type A behavior pattern. Significant findings are observed for total activity and leisure activity with the Temperament Scale summary score. Significant findings are also observed for total activity, household chores, work, leisure activity, exercise, and inactivity with one or more of the individual items on the Temperament Scale. However, even though some significant findings were observed, the overall models did not reveal meaningful associations. ^

Multiple imputation for missing continuous and dichotomous data: The effects of patterns of missingness and variable correlations on type I error with small samples

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of predictor variable correlations and patterns of missingness with dichotomous and/or continuous data in small samples when missing data is multiply imputed. Missing data of predictor variables is multiply imputed under three different multivariate models: the multivariate normal model for continuous data, the multinomial model for dichotomous data and the general location model for mixed dichotomous and continuous data. Subsequent to the multiple imputation process, Type I error rates of the regression coefficients obtained with logistic regression analysis are estimated under various conditions of correlation structure, sample size, type of data and patterns of missing data. The distributional properties of average mean, variance and correlations among the predictor variables are assessed after the multiple imputation process. ^ For continuous predictor data under the multivariate normal model, Type I error rates are generally within the nominal values with samples of size n = 100. Smaller samples of size n = 50 resulted in more conservative estimates (i.e., lower than the nominal value). Correlation and variance estimates of the original data are retained after multiple imputation with less than 50% missing continuous predictor data. For dichotomous predictor data under the multinomial model, Type I error rates are generally conservative, which in part is due to the sparseness of the data. The correlation structure for the predictor variables is not well retained on multiply-imputed data from small samples with more than 50% missing data with this model. For mixed continuous and dichotomous predictor data, the results are similar to those found under the multivariate normal model for continuous data and under the multinomial model for dichotomous data. With all data types, a fully-observed variable included with variables subject to missingness in the multiple imputation process and subsequent statistical analysis provided liberal (larger than nominal values) Type I error rates under a specific pattern of missing data. It is suggested that future studies focus on the effects of multiple imputation in multivariate settings with more realistic data characteristics and a variety of multivariate analyses, assessing both Type I error and power. ^

Investigation of arterial spin labeling MRI for quantitative cerebral blood flow measurement

Arterial spin labeling (ASL) is a technique for noninvasively measuring cerebral perfusion using magnetic resonance imaging. Clinical applications of ASL include functional activation studies, evaluation of the effect of pharmaceuticals on perfusion, and assessment of cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and brain tumor. The use of ASL in the clinic has been limited by poor image quality when large anatomic coverage is required and the time required for data acquisition and processing. This research sought to address these difficulties by optimizing the ASL acquisition and processing schemes. To improve data acquisition, optimal acquisition parameters were determined through simulations, phantom studies and in vivo measurements. The scan time for ASL data acquisition was limited to fifteen minutes to reduce potential subject motion. A processing scheme was implemented that rapidly produced regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) maps with minimal user input. To provide a measure of the precision of the rCBF values produced by ASL, bootstrap analysis was performed on a representative data set. The bootstrap analysis of single gray and white matter voxels yielded a coefficient of variation of 6.7% and 29% respectively, implying that the calculated rCBF value is far more precise for gray matter than white matter. Additionally, bootstrap analysis was performed to investigate the sensitivity of the rCBF data to the input parameters and provide a quantitative comparison of several existing perfusion models. This study guided the selection of the optimum perfusion quantification model for further experiments. The optimized ASL acquisition and processing schemes were evaluated with two ASL acquisitions on each of five normal subjects. The gray-to-white matter rCBF ratios for nine of the ten acquisitions were within ±10% of 2.6 and none were statistically different from 2.6, the typical ratio produced by a variety of quantitative perfusion techniques. Overall, this work produced an ASL data acquisition and processing technique for quantitative perfusion and functional activation studies, while revealing the limitations of the technique through bootstrap analysis. ^

An empirical evaluation of the Random Forests classifier models for variable selection in a large-scale lung cancer case-control study

Random Forests™ is reported to be one of the most accurate classification algorithms in complex data analysis. It shows excellent performance even when most predictors are noisy and the number of variables is much larger than the number of observations. In this thesis Random Forests was applied to a large-scale lung cancer case-control study. A novel way of automatically selecting prognostic factors was proposed. Also, synthetic positive control was used to validate Random Forests method. Throughout this study we showed that Random Forests can deal with large number of weak input variables without overfitting. It can account for non-additive interactions between these input variables. Random Forests can also be used for variable selection without being adversely affected by collinearities. ^ Random Forests can deal with the large-scale data sets without rigorous data preprocessing. It has robust variable importance ranking measure. Proposed is a novel variable selection method in context of Random Forests that uses the data noise level as the cut-off value to determine the subset of the important predictors. This new approach enhanced the ability of the Random Forests algorithm to automatically identify important predictors for complex data. The cut-off value can also be adjusted based on the results of the synthetic positive control experiments. ^ When the data set had high variables to observations ratio, Random Forests complemented the established logistic regression. This study suggested that Random Forests is recommended for such high dimensionality data. One can use Random Forests to select the important variables and then use logistic regression or Random Forests itself to estimate the effect size of the predictors and to classify new observations. ^ We also found that the mean decrease of accuracy is a more reliable variable ranking measurement than mean decrease of Gini. ^

The application of latent variable models to the assessment of determinants of HIV risk behavior

Studies on the relationship between psychosocial determinants and HIV risk behaviors have produced little evidence to support hypotheses based on theoretical relationships. One limitation inherent in many articles in the literature is the method of measurement of the determinants and the analytic approach selected. ^ To reduce the misclassification associated with unit scaling of measures specific to internalized homonegativity, I evaluated the psychometric properties of the Reactions to Homosexuality scale in a confirmatory factor analytic framework. In addition, I assessed the measurement invariance of the scale across racial/ethnic classifications in a sample of men who have sex with men. The resulting measure contained eight items loading on three first-order factors. Invariance assessment identified metric and partial strong invariance between racial/ethnic groups in the sample. ^ Application of the updated measure to a structural model allowed for the exploration of direct and indirect effects of internalized homonegativity on unprotected anal intercourse. Pathways identified in the model show that drug and alcohol use at last sexual encounter, the number of sexual partners in the previous three months and sexual compulsivity all contribute directly to risk behavior. Internalized homonegativity reduced the likelihood of exposure to drugs, alcohol or higher numbers of partners. For men who developed compulsive sexual behavior as a coping strategy for internalized homonegativity, there was an increase in the prevalence odds of risk behavior. ^ In the final stage of the analysis, I conducted a latent profile analysis of the items in the updated Reactions to Homosexuality scale. This analysis identified five distinct profiles, which suggested that the construct was not homogeneous in samples of men who have sex with men. Lack of prior consideration of these distinct manifestations of internalized homonegativity may have contributed to the analytic difficulty in identifying a relationship between the trait and high-risk sexual practices. ^

Selection bias and the cross-validation of regression models for prediction

Strategies are compared for the development of a linear regression model with stochastic (multivariate normal) regressor variables and the subsequent assessment of its predictive ability. Bias and mean squared error of four estimators of predictive performance are evaluated in simulated samples of 32 population correlation matrices. Models including all of the available predictors are compared with those obtained using selected subsets. The subset selection procedures investigated include two stopping rules, C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$, each combined with an 'all possible subsets' or 'forward selection' of variables. The estimators of performance utilized include parametric (MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$) and non-parametric (PRESS) assessments in the entire sample, and two data splitting estimates restricted to a random or balanced (Snee's DUPLEX) 'validation' half sample. The simulations were performed as a designed experiment, with population correlation matrices representing a broad range of data structures.^ The techniques examined for subset selection do not generally result in improved predictions relative to the full model. Approaches using 'forward selection' result in slightly smaller prediction errors and less biased estimators of predictive accuracy than 'all possible subsets' approaches but no differences are detected between the performances of C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$. In every case, prediction errors of models obtained by subset selection in either of the half splits exceed those obtained using all predictors and the entire sample.^ Only the random split estimator is conditionally (on $\\beta$) unbiased, however MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ is unbiased on average and PRESS is nearly so in unselected (fixed form) models. When subset selection techniques are used, MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ and PRESS always underestimate prediction errors, by as much as 27 percent (on average) in small samples. Despite their bias, the mean squared errors (MSE) of these estimators are at least 30 percent less than that of the unbiased random split estimator. The DUPLEX split estimator suffers from large MSE as well as bias, and seems of little value within the context of stochastic regressor variables.^ To maximize predictive accuracy while retaining a reliable estimate of that accuracy, it is recommended that the entire sample be used for model development, and a leave-one-out statistic (e.g. PRESS) be used for assessment. ^

Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^

Design and Optimization of Four-dimensional Cone-beam Computed Tomography in Image-guided Radiation Therapy

The influence of respiratory motion on patient anatomy poses a challenge to accurate radiation therapy, especially in lung cancer treatment. Modern radiation therapy planning uses models of tumor respiratory motion to account for target motion in targeting. The tumor motion model can be verified on a per-treatment session basis with four-dimensional cone-beam computed tomography (4D-CBCT), which acquires an image set of the dynamic target throughout the respiratory cycle during the therapy session. 4D-CBCT is undersampled if the scan time is too short. However, short scan time is desirable in clinical practice to reduce patient setup time. This dissertation presents the design and optimization of 4D-CBCT to reduce the impact of undersampling artifacts with short scan times. This work measures the impact of undersampling artifacts on the accuracy of target motion measurement under different sampling conditions and for various object sizes and motions. The results provide a minimum scan time such that the target tracking error is less than a specified tolerance. This work also presents new image reconstruction algorithms for reducing undersampling artifacts in undersampled datasets by taking advantage of the assumption that the relevant motion of interest is contained within a volume-of-interest (VOI). It is shown that the VOI-based reconstruction provides more accurate image intensity than standard reconstruction. The VOI-based reconstruction produced 43% fewer least-squares error inside the VOI and 84% fewer error throughout the image in a study designed to simulate target motion. The VOI-based reconstruction approach can reduce acquisition time and improve image quality in 4D-CBCT.