Searching for the majority: algorithms of voluntary control.

Voluntary control of information processing is crucial to allocate resources and prioritize the processes that are most important under a given situation; the algorithms underlying such control, however, are often not clear. We investigated possible algorithms of control for the performance of the majority function, in which participants searched for and identified one of two alternative categories (left or right pointing arrows) as composing the majority in each stimulus set. We manipulated the amount (set size of 1, 3, and 5) and content (ratio of left and right pointing arrows within a set) of the inputs to test competing hypotheses regarding mental operations for information processing. Using a novel measure based on computational load, we found that reaction time was best predicted by a grouping search algorithm as compared to alternative algorithms (i.e., exhaustive or self-terminating search). The grouping search algorithm involves sampling and resampling of the inputs before a decision is reached. These findings highlight the importance of investigating the implications of voluntary control via algorithms of mental operations.

The association of genetic groups 1, 2, and 3 of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis

Objective. To investigate the association of the three major genetic groups of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis in clustered and non-clustered TB cases in the Houston area. ^ Study design. Secondary analysis of an ambi-directional study. ^ Study population. Three hundred fifty-eight confirmed cases of tuberculosis in the Houston that occurred between October 1995 and May 1997, who had been interviewed by the Houston T13 Initiative staff at Baylor College of Medicine, and whose isolates have had their DNA fingerprint and genetic group determined. ^ Exclusions. Individuals whose mycobacterial genotype was unknown, or whose data variables were unavailable. ^ Source of data. Laboratory results, patient interviews, and medical records at clinics and hospitals of the study population. ^ Results. In clustered cases, the majority of both, pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB cases were caused by genetic group 1. Independent factors were assessed to determine the interactions that may influence the site of infection or increase the risk for one site or another. HIV negative males were protected against extra-pulmonary TB compared to HIV negative females. Individuals ages 1–14 years were at higher risk of having extra-pulmonary TB. Group 3 organisms were found less frequently in the total population in general, especially in extra-pulmonary disease. This supports the evidence in previous studies that this group is the least virulent and genetically distinct from the other two groups. Group 1 was found more frequently among African Americans than other ethnic groups, a trend for future investigations. ^ Among the non-clustered cases, group 2 organisms were the majority of the organisms found in both sites. They were also the majority of organisms found in African Americans, Caucasians, and Hispanics causing the majority of the infections at both sites. However, group 1 organisms were the overwhelming majority found in Asian/Pacific Islander individuals, which may indicate these organisms are either endemic to that area, or that there is an ethnic biological factor involved. This may also be due to a systematic bias, since isolates from individuals from that geographic region lack adequate copies of the insertion sequence IS6110, which leads to their placement in the non-clustered population. ^ The three genetic groups of Mycobacterium tuberculosis were not found equally distributed between sites of infection in both clustered and non-clustered cases. Furthermore, these groups were not distributed in the same patterns among the clustered and non-clustered cases, but rather in distinct patterns. ^

The location of majority and minority populations with respect to commercial treatment, storage, and disposal facilities in Texas

There is a growing interest in the location of Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSDF) sites in relation to minority communities. A number of studies have been completed, and the results of these studies have been varied. Some of the studies have shown a strong positive correlation between the location of TSDF sites and minority populations, while a few have shown no significance in that relationship. The major difference between these studies has been in the areal unit used.^ This study compared the minority populations of Texas census tracts and ZIP codes containing a TSDF using the associated county as the comparison population. The hypothesis of this study was that there was no difference between using census tracts and ZIP codes to analyze the relationship of minority populations and TSDF's. The census data used was from 1990, and the initial list of TSDF sites was supplied by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission. The TSDF site locations were checked using graphical information systems (GIS) programs, in order to increase the accuracy of the identity of exposed ZIP codes and census tracts. The minority populations of the exposed areal units were compared using proportional differences, crosstables, maps, and logistic regression. The dependent variable used was the exposure status of the areal units under study, including counties, census tracts, and ZIP codes. The independent variables used included minority group proportion and grouping of the proportions, educational status, household income, and home value.^ In all cases, education was significant or near significant at the.05 level. Education rather than minority proportion was therefore the most significant predictor of the exposure status of a census tract or ZIP code. ^

Behavioral and cellular analysis of classical conditioning of feeding behavior in Aplysia

In classical conditioning, an associative form of learning, animals learn to associate two stimuli. Cellular and molecular mechanisms for the induction and consolidation of associative learning and memory at the level of single cells and synaptic connections have been studied in both vertebrate and invertebrate animals. The majority of studies, however, relied on aversive stimuli to induce learning. This bias may limit the extent to which identified mechanisms generalize to other forms of associative learning and memory, such as appetitive forms. The goal of the present study was to develop a classical conditioning procedure for the marine mollusk Aplysia californica using appetitive reinforcement, and to analyze associative learning using behavioral and electrophysiological techniques. ^ Using tactile stimulation of the lips as the conditional stimulus (CS) and food as the unconditional stimulus (US) a training protocol was developed that reliably induced classical conditioning of feeding behavior. Memory persisted for at least 24 hours. The gross organization of reinforcement-mediating pathways was analyzed in additional behavioral experiments. Moreover, neurophysiological correlates of classical conditioning were identified and characterized in an in vitro preparation containing the circuitry for feeding behavior. In vitro stimulation of a nerve (AT4) that may mediate the CS during training, resulted in a greater number of buccal motor patterns (BMPs) in brains from conditioned animals, as compared to control animals. The majority of these BMPs were ingestion-like, consistent with the increased number of bites in response to the CS after classical conditioning. Moreover, classical conditioning correlated with increased excitatory synaptic input to BMP-initiating neuron B31/32, in response to stimulation of AT 4, as compared to controls. The expression of the correlates of classical conditioning identified in this study was specific to stimulation of AT 4, which is consistent the stimulus specificity that is characteristic for classical conditioning. ^ The identification of cellular correlates of classical conditioning documented here provides the basis for future, more detailed analyses of an appetitive form of associative learning and memory, that may extend the working knowledge of the cellular and molecular mechanisms for associative plasticity in general. ^

Selection bias and the cross-validation of regression models for prediction

Strategies are compared for the development of a linear regression model with stochastic (multivariate normal) regressor variables and the subsequent assessment of its predictive ability. Bias and mean squared error of four estimators of predictive performance are evaluated in simulated samples of 32 population correlation matrices. Models including all of the available predictors are compared with those obtained using selected subsets. The subset selection procedures investigated include two stopping rules, C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$, each combined with an 'all possible subsets' or 'forward selection' of variables. The estimators of performance utilized include parametric (MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$) and non-parametric (PRESS) assessments in the entire sample, and two data splitting estimates restricted to a random or balanced (Snee's DUPLEX) 'validation' half sample. The simulations were performed as a designed experiment, with population correlation matrices representing a broad range of data structures.^ The techniques examined for subset selection do not generally result in improved predictions relative to the full model. Approaches using 'forward selection' result in slightly smaller prediction errors and less biased estimators of predictive accuracy than 'all possible subsets' approaches but no differences are detected between the performances of C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$. In every case, prediction errors of models obtained by subset selection in either of the half splits exceed those obtained using all predictors and the entire sample.^ Only the random split estimator is conditionally (on $\\beta$) unbiased, however MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ is unbiased on average and PRESS is nearly so in unselected (fixed form) models. When subset selection techniques are used, MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ and PRESS always underestimate prediction errors, by as much as 27 percent (on average) in small samples. Despite their bias, the mean squared errors (MSE) of these estimators are at least 30 percent less than that of the unbiased random split estimator. The DUPLEX split estimator suffers from large MSE as well as bias, and seems of little value within the context of stochastic regressor variables.^ To maximize predictive accuracy while retaining a reliable estimate of that accuracy, it is recommended that the entire sample be used for model development, and a leave-one-out statistic (e.g. PRESS) be used for assessment. ^

Information bias and lifetime mortality risks of radiation-induced cancer

Additive and multiplicative models of relative risk were used to measure the effect of cancer misclassification and DS86 random errors on lifetime risk projections in the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The true number of cancer deaths in each stratum of the cancer mortality cross-classification was estimated using sufficient statistics from the EM algorithm. Average survivor doses in the strata were corrected for DS86 random error ($\sigma$ = 0.45) by use of reduction factors. Poisson regression was used to model the corrected and uncorrected mortality rates with covariates for age at-time-of-bombing, age at-time-of-death and gender. Excess risks were in good agreement with risks in RERF Report 11 (Part 2) and the BEIR-V report. Bias due to DS86 random error typically ranged from $-$15% to $-$30% for both sexes, and all sites and models. The total bias, including diagnostic misclassification, of excess risk of nonleukemia for exposure to 1 Sv from age 18 to 65 under the non-constant relative projection model was $-$37.1% for males and $-$23.3% for females. Total excess risks of leukemia under the relative projection model were biased $-$27.1% for males and $-$43.4% for females. Thus, nonleukemia risks for 1 Sv from ages 18 to 85 (DRREF = 2) increased from 1.91%/Sv to 2.68%/Sv among males and from 3.23%/Sv to 4.02%/Sv among females. Leukemia excess risks increased from 0.87%/Sv to 1.10%/Sv among males and from 0.73%/Sv to 1.04%/Sv among females. Bias was dependent on the gender, site, correction method, exposure profile and projection model considered. Future studies that use LSS data for U.S. nuclear workers may be downwardly biased if lifetime risk projections are not adjusted for random and systematic errors. (Supported by U.S. NRC Grant NRC-04-091-02.) ^

POPULATION ASSESSMENTS OF INFECTION WITH SCHISTOSOMA MANSONI: EFFECTS OF BIAS CAUSED BY THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES (PUERTO RICO)

This study establishes the extent and relevance of bias of population estimates of prevalence, incidence, and intensity of infection with Schistosoma mansoni caused by the relative sensitivity of stool examination techniques. The population studied was Parcelas de Boqueron in Las Piedras, Puerto Rico, where the Centers for Disease Control, had undertaken a prospective community-based study of infection with S. mansoni in 1972. During each January of the succeeding years stool specimens from this population were processed according to the modified Ritchie concentration (MRC) technique. During January 1979 additional stool specimens were collected from 30 individuals selected on the basis of their mean S. mansoni egg output during previous years. Each specimen was divided into ten 1-gm aliquots and three 42-mg aliquots. The relationship of egg counts obtained with the Kato-Katz (KK) thick smear technique as a function of the mean of ten counts obtained with the MRC technique was established by means of regression analysis. Additionally, the effect of fecal sample size and egg excretion level on technique sensitivity was evaluated during a blind assessment of single stool specimen samples, using both examination methods, from 125 residents with documented S. mansoni infections. The regression equation was: Ln KK = 2.3324 + 0.6319 Ln MRC, and the coefficient of determination (r('2)) was 0.73. The regression equation was then utilized to correct the term "m" for sample size in the expression P ((GREATERTHEQ) 1 egg) = 1 - e('-ms), which estimates the probability P of finding at least one egg as a function of the mean S. mansoni egg output "m" of the population and the effective stool sample size "s" utilized by the coprological technique. This algorithm closely approximated the observed sensitivity of the KK and MRC tests when these were utilized to blindly screen a population of known parasitologic status for infection with S. mansoni. In addition, the algorithm was utilized to adjust the apparent prevalence of infection for the degree of functional sensitivity exhibited by the diagnostic test. This permitted the estimation of true prevalence of infection and, hence, a means for correcting estimates of incidence of infection. ^

Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^