Comparison of machine learning approaches and statistical methods for estimation of airborne chemical exposures

Accurate quantitative estimation of exposure using retrospective data has been one of the most challenging tasks in the exposure assessment field. To improve these estimates, some models have been developed using published exposure databases with their corresponding exposure determinants. These models are designed to be applied to reported exposure determinants obtained from study subjects or exposure levels assigned by an industrial hygienist, so quantitative exposure estimates can be obtained. ^ In an effort to improve the prediction accuracy and generalizability of these models, and taking into account that the limitations encountered in previous studies might be due to limitations in the applicability of traditional statistical methods and concepts, the use of computer science- derived data analysis methods, predominantly machine learning approaches, were proposed and explored in this study. ^ The goal of this study was to develop a set of models using decision trees/ensemble and neural networks methods to predict occupational outcomes based on literature-derived databases, and compare, using cross-validation and data splitting techniques, the resulting prediction capacity to that of traditional regression models. Two cases were addressed: the categorical case, where the exposure level was measured as an exposure rating following the American Industrial Hygiene Association guidelines and the continuous case, where the result of the exposure is expressed as a concentration value. Previously developed literature-based exposure databases for 1,1,1 trichloroethane, methylene dichloride and, trichloroethylene were used. ^ When compared to regression estimations, results showed better accuracy of decision trees/ensemble techniques for the categorical case while neural networks were better for estimation of continuous exposure values. Overrepresentation of classes and overfitting were the main causes for poor neural network performance and accuracy. Estimations based on literature-based databases using machine learning techniques might provide an advantage when they are applied to other methodologies that combine `expert inputs' with current exposure measurements, like the Bayesian Decision Analysis tool. The use of machine learning techniques to more accurately estimate exposures from literature-based exposure databases might represent the starting point for the independence from the expert judgment.^

Hepatocellular carcinoma survival in uninsured and underinsured patients.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing. The purpose of this study is to establish baseline survival in a medically-underserved population and to evaluate the effect of HCV seropositivity on our patient population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed clinicopathologic parameters from a prospective tumor registry and medical records from the Harris County Hospital District (HCHD). Outcomes were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank tests. RESULTS: A total of 298 HCC patients were identified. The median survival for the entire cohort was 3.4 mo. There was no difference in survival between the HCV seropositive and the HCV seronegative groups (3.6 mo versus 2.6 mo, P = 0.7). Patients with a survival <1 mo had a significant increase in>αfetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and total bilirubin and decrease in albumin compared with patients with a survival ≥ 1 mo. CONCLUSIONS: Survival for HCC patients in the HCHD is extremely poor compared with an anticipated median survival of 7 mo reported in other studies. HCV seropositive patients have no survival advantage over HCV seronegative patients. Poorer liver function at diagnosis appears to be related to shorter survival. Further analysis into variables contributing to decreased survival is needed.

A case-control study of hepatitis C virus and its interaction with hepatitis B virus on the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in the USA

Objective. The aim of this study was to assess the independent risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The independent risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV), its interaction with hepatitis C virus and the association with other risk factors were examined.^ Methods. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted between January 1994 and December 1995. We enrolled 115 pathologically confirmed HCC patients and 230 nonliver cancer controls, who were matched by age ($\pm$5 years), gender, and year of diagnosis. Both cases and controls were recruited from The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center at Houston. The risk factors were collected through personal interviews and blood samples were tested for HCV and HBV markers. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed through conditional logistic regression.^ The prevalence of anti-HCV positive is 25.2% in HCC cases compared to 3.0% in controls. The univariate analysis showed that anti-HCV, HBsAg, alcohol drinking and cigarette smoking were significantly associated with HCC, however, family history of cancer, occupational chemical exposure, and use of oral contraceptive were not. Multivariate analysis revealed a matched odds ratio (OR) of 10.1 (95% CI 3.7-27.4) for anti-HCV, and an OR of 11.9 (95% CI 2.5-57.5) for HBsAg. However, dual infection of HCV and HBV had only a thirteen times increase in the risk of HCC, OR = 13.9 (95% CI 1.3-150.6). The estimated population attributable risk percent was 23.4% for HCV, 12.6% for HBV, and 5.3% for both viruses. Ever alcohol drinkers was positively associated with HCC, especially among daily drinkers, matched OR was 5.7 (95% CI 2.1-15.6). However, there was no significant increase in the risk of HCC among smokers as compared to nonsmokers. The mean age of HCC patients was significantly younger among the HBV(+) group and among the HCV(+)/HBV(+) group, when compared to the group of HCC patients with no viral markers. The association between past histories of blood transfusion, acupuncture, tattoo and IVDU was highly significant among the HCV(+) group and the HBV(+)/HCV(+) group, as compared to HCC patients with no viral markers. Forty percent of the HCC patients were pathologically or clinically diagnosed with liver cirrhosis. Anti-HCV(+) (OR = 3.6 95% CI 1.5-8.9) and alcohol drinking (OR = 2.7 95% CI 1.1-6.7), but not HBsAg, are the major risk factors for liver cirrhosis in HCC patients.^ Conclusion. Both hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus were independent risk factors for HCC. There was not enough evidence to determine the interaction between both viruses. Only daily alcoholic drinkers showed increasing risk for HCC development, as compared to nondrinkers. ^

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a 2-stage community-based hepatocellular carcinoma screening program in Taiwan

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been ranked as the top cause of death due to neoplasm malignancy in Taiwan for years. The high incidence of HCC in Taiwan is primarily attributed to high prevalence of hepatitis viral infection. Screening the subjects with liver cirrhosis for HCC was widely recommended by many previous studies. The latest practice guideline for management of HCC released by the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) in 2005 recommended that the high risk groups, including cirrhotic patients, chronic HBV/HCV carriers, and subjects with family history of HCC and etc., should undergo surveillance.^ This study aims to investigate (1) whether the HCC screening program can prolong survival period of the high risk group, (2) what is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HCC screening program in Taiwan, as compared with a non-screening strategy from the payer perspective, (3) which high risk group has the lowest ICER for the HCC screening program from the insurer's perspective, in comparison with no screening strategy of each group, and (4) the estimated total cost of providing the HCC screening program to all high risk groups.^ The high risk subjects in the study were identified from the communities with high prevalence of hepatitis viral infection and classified into three groups (cirrhosis group, early cirrhosis group, and no cirrhosis group) at different levels of risk to HCC by status of liver disease at the time of enrollment. The repeated ultrasound screenings at an interval of 3, 6, and 12 months were applied to cirrhosis group, early cirrhosis group, and no cirrhosis group, respectively. The Markov-based decision model was constructed to simulate progression of HCC and to estimate the ICER for each group of subjects.^ The screening group had longer survival in the statistical results and the model outcomes. Owing to the low HCC incidence rate in the community-based screening program, screening services only have limited effect on survival of the screening group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HCC screening program was $3834 per year of life saved, in comparison with the non-screening strategy. The estimated total cost of each group from the screening model over 13.5 years approximately consumes 0.13%, 1.06%, and 0.71% of total amount of adjusted National Health Expenditure from Jan 1992 to Jun 2005. ^ The subjects at high risk of developing HCC to undergo repeated ultrasound screenings had longer survival than those without screening, but screening was not the only factor to cause longer survival in the screening group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the 2-stage community-based HCC screening program in Taiwan was small. The HCC screening program was worthy of investment in Taiwan. In comparison with early cirrhosis group and no cirrhosis group, cirrhosis group has the lowest ICER when the screening period is less than 19 years. The estimated total cost of providing the HCC screening program to all high risk groups consumes approximately 1.90% of total amount of adjusted 13.5-year NHE in Taiwan.^

NEW TARGET GENES FOR TUMOR SUPPRESSORS p53 AND p73 IN REGENERATING LIVER

The p53-family of proteins regulates expression of target genes during tissue development and differentiation. Within the p53-family, p53 and p73 have hepatic-specific functions in development and tumor suppression. Despite a growing list of p53/p73 target genes, very few of these have been studied in vivo, and the knowledge regarding functions of p53 and p73 in normal tissues remains limited. p53+/-p73+/- mice develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), whereas overexpression of p53 in human HCC leads to tumor regression. However, the mechanism of p53/p73 function in liver remains poorly characterized. Here, the model of mouse liver regeneration is used to identify new target genes for p53/p73 in normal quiescent vs. proliferating cells. In response to surgical removal of ~2/3 of liver mass (partial hepatectomy, PH), the remaining hepatocytes exit G0 of cell cycle and undergo proliferation to reestablish liver mass. The hypothesis tested in this work is that p53/p73 functions in cell cycle arrest, apoptosis and senescence are repressed during liver regeneration, and reactivated at the end of the regenerative response. Chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP), with a p73-antibody, was used to probe arrayed genomic sequences (ChIP-chip) and uncover 158 potential targets of p73-regulation in normal liver. Global microarray analysis of mRNA levels, at T=0-48h following PH, revealed sets of genes that change expression during regeneration. Eighteen p73-bound genes changed expression after PH. Four of these genes, Foxo3, Jak1, Pea15, and Tuba1 have p53 response elements (p53REs), identified in silico within the upstream regulatory region. Forkhead transcription factor Foxo3 is the most responsive gene among transcription factors with altered expression during regenerative, cellular proliferation. p53 and p73 bind a Foxo3 p53RE and maintain active expression in quiescent liver. During liver regeneration, binding of p53 and p73, recruitment of acetyltransferase p300, and an active chromatin structure of Foxo3 are disrupted, alongside loss of Foxo3 expression. These parameters of Foxo3 regulation are reestablished at completion of liver growth and regeneration, supporting a temporary suspension of p53 and p73 regulatory functions in normal cells during tissue regeneration.

Using citation data to improve retrieval from MEDLINE.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether algorithms developed for the World Wide Web can be applied to the biomedical literature in order to identify articles that are important as well as relevant. DESIGN AND MEASUREMENTS A direct comparison of eight algorithms: simple PubMed queries, clinical queries (sensitive and specific versions), vector cosine comparison, citation count, journal impact factor, PageRank, and machine learning based on polynomial support vector machines. The objective was to prioritize important articles, defined as being included in a pre-existing bibliography of important literature in surgical oncology. RESULTS Citation-based algorithms were more effective than noncitation-based algorithms at identifying important articles. The most effective strategies were simple citation count and PageRank, which on average identified over six important articles in the first 100 results compared to 0.85 for the best noncitation-based algorithm (p < 0.001). The authors saw similar differences between citation-based and noncitation-based algorithms at 10, 20, 50, 200, 500, and 1,000 results (p < 0.001). Citation lag affects performance of PageRank more than simple citation count. However, in spite of citation lag, citation-based algorithms remain more effective than noncitation-based algorithms. CONCLUSION Algorithms that have proved successful on the World Wide Web can be applied to biomedical information retrieval. Citation-based algorithms can help identify important articles within large sets of relevant results. Further studies are needed to determine whether citation-based algorithms can effectively meet actual user information needs.

Experimental models for p53, hepatitis B and aflatoxin hepatocarcinogenesis

The major risk factors for liver cancer in Southeast Asia: HBV infection, aflatoxin exposure and p53 expression/mutation, were examined in experimental models. Four groups were examined for development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with and without neonatal exposure to aflatoxin (AFB$\sb1)$: (Group I.) Transgenic HBsAg mice with one p53 allele. (Group II) Transgenic HBsAg mice with two p53 alleles. (Group III) Non-transgenic litter mates with one p53 allele. (Group IV) Non-transgenic litter mates with two p53 alleles. HCC developed in Group I animals exposed to aflatoxin at an earlier time and were of a higher grade than those seen later in other groups. These results provide an explanation for as to why p53 is a target for deletion and/or mutation in human HCC especially when found in high risk areas where HBV infection and Aflatoxin B1 food contamination is high, and nicely illustrates a synergistic interaction among these three factors. None of the tumors analyzed had loss or mutation in the p53 gene.^ To determine the significance of the specific p53ser249 mutation found in HBV/aflatoxin associated human hepatomas in an in-vivo experimental model using transgenic mice, a two-nucleotide change in the mouse p53 gene at amino acid position 246, which is equivalent to that of 249 in human p53, was introduced. Transgenic mice with mutant p53 controlled by the albumin promoter were generated and shown to express the p53ser246 mutant RNA and protein specifically in liver. Three groups were examined for development of HCC with and without neonatal exposure to aflatoxin: (Group V) Transgenic p53ser246 mice with two p53 alleles. (Group VI) Transgenic p53ser246 mice with one p53 allele. (Group VII) Double transgenic for p53ser246 and HBsAg with two p53 alleles. One hundred percent of male mice with the three risk factors injected with aflatoxin developed high grade liver tumors, compared to 66.6% from group VI and only 14.2% of group V suggesting synergistic interaction between HBsAg and this particular ser246 p53 mutation.^ In order to examine the growth properties of hepatocytes and correlation with p53 loss and/or mutation, cell proliferation and ploidy analysis of liver from normal heterozyous, homozygous null mice and from transgenic mutant p53ser246, mice were studied. Loss of wild-type p53 increased G1/G0 ratios of cells as well as proliferation and decreased cell ploidy. The mutant p53ser246 did not show a significant effect on cell ploidy or proliferation. However a striking 5-10X increase in G1/G0 ratio suggests that this specific mutation specifically induces G0 to G1 transition, which in turn further predisposes hepatocytes to the damaging effect of Aflatoxin. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^