Hormone therapy and physical activity as predictors of lung cancer risk and survival: The California Teachers Study

Cigarette smoking is responsible for the majority of lung cancer cases worldwide; however, a proportion of never smokers still develop lung cancer over their lifetime, prompting investigation into additional factors that may modify lung cancer incidence, as well as mortality. Although hormone therapy (HT), physical activity (PA), and lung cancer have been previously examined, the associations remain unclear. This study investigated exposure to HT and PA that may modulate underlying mechanisms of lung cancer etiology and progression among women by using existing, de-identified data from the California Teachers Study (CTS).^ The CTS cohort, established in 1995–1996, has 133,479 active and retired female teachers and administrators, recruited through the California State Teachers Retirement System, and followed annually for cancer diagnosis, death, and change of address. Each woman enrolled in the CTS returned a questionnaire covering a wide variety of issues related to cancer risk and women's health, including recent and past HT use and physical activity, as well as active and environmental cigarette smoke exposure. Complete data to assess the associations between HT and lung cancer risk and survival were available for 60,592 postmenopausal women. Between 1995 and 2007, 727 of these women were diagnosed with invasive lung cancer; 441 of these died. Complete data to assess the associations between PA and lung cancer risk and survival were available for 118,513 women. Between 1995 and 2007, 853 of these women were diagnosed with invasive lung cancer; 516 of these died.^ After careful adjustment for smoking habits and other potential confounders, no measure of HT use was associated with lung cancer risk; however, any HT use (vs. no use) was associated with a decrease in lung-cancer-specific mortality. Specifically, among women who only used estrogen (E-only), decreases in lung cancer mortality were seen for recent use, but not for former use; no association was observed for estrogen plus progestin (E+P). Furthermore, among former users of HT, a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer mortality was observed for E-only use within 5 years prior to baseline, but not for E-only use >5 years prior to baseline. Neither long-term recreational PA nor recent recreational PA alone were associated with lung cancer risk; however, among women with a BMI<25 and ever smokers, high long-term moderate+strenuous PA was associated with a decrease in lung cancer risk. Women with non-local disease showed a decrease in lung cancer mortality associated with increasing duration of strenuous long-term activity, and 1.50-3.00 h/wk/y of recent moderate or recent strenuous PA. Long-term moderate PA was associated with decreased lung cancer mortality in never smokers, whereas recent moderate PA was associated with increased lung cancer mortality in current smokers. ^ Placing our findings in the context of the current literature, HT does not appear to be associated with lung cancer risk and previous studies reporting a protective effect of HT use on lung cancer risk may be subject to residual confounding by smoking. Looking at our findings regarding PA overall, the evidence still remains inconclusive regarding whether or not physical activity influence lung cancer risk or mortality. Our results suggest that recreational PA may associated with decreased lung cancer risk among women with BMI<25 and ever smoking-women; however, residual confounding by smoking should be strongly considered. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate lifetime recreational PA and lung cancer mortality among women. Our results contribute to the growing body of knowledge regarding non-smoking-related risk factors for lung cancer incidence and mortality among women. Given the potential clinical and interventional significance, further study and validation of these findings is warranted.^

Atlas of cancer mortality in the United Arab Emirates aided by application of geographic information system methods

The aim of this study was to determine cancer mortality rates for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and to create an atlas of cancer mortality for the UAE. This atlas is the first of its kind in the Gulf country and the Middle East. Death certificates were reviewed for a period from January 1, 1990 to December 31, 1999 and cancer deaths were identified. Cancer mortality cases were verified by comparing with medical records. Age-adjusted cancer mortality rates were calculated by gender, emirate/medical district and nationality (UAE nationals and overall UAE population). Individual rates for each emirate were compared to the overall rate of the corresponding population for the same cancer site and gender. Age-adjusted rates were mapped using MapInfo software. High rates for liver, lung and stomach cancer were observed in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and the northern emirates, respectively. Rates for UAE nationals were greater compared to the overall UAE population. Several factors were suggested that may account for high rates of specific cancers observed in certain emirates. It is hoped that this atlas will provide leads that will guide further epidemiologic and public health activities aimed at preventing cancer. ^

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RELATION OF CANCER MORTALITY RATES AND SOURCES OF DRINKING WATER IN TEXAS

The geographic distribution of average annual age-adjusted mortality rates (1964-1976) for four types of cancer (all cancer sites combined, gastrointestinal, urinary, and lung cancer) were compared by sources of drinking water for 254 Texas counties and county rural areas and 301 Texas cities. Exposure variables considered were surface versus ground water, public water supplies versus individuals wells, and trihalomethane levels in municipal water supplies. Each general source of "surface" and "ground" water was further divided by aggregating ground water using areas by aquifers and surface water using study areas by river basins. Potential confounding variables taken into account included median education, employment in cancer risk industries, population mobility, ethnicity, and urbanicity. A pattern of higher and lower cancer mortality rates was found for populations using some aquifers and river basins. Further study is required to determine whether the differences in cancer mortality rates that were observed are related to drinking water content or are coincidental with differences in personal characteristics which could not be taken into account in this ecologic study design. ^

Genetic Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the US. Emerging evidence has shown that host genetic factors can interact with environmental exposures to influence patient susceptibility to the diseases as well as clinical outcomes, such as survival and recurrence. We aimed to identify genetic prognostic markers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a major (85%) subtype of lung cancer, and also in other subgroups. With the fast evolution of genotyping technology, genetic association studies have went through candidate gene approach, to pathway-based approach, to the genome wide association study (GWAS). Even in the era of GWAS, pathway-based approach has its own advantages on studying cancer clinical outcomes: it is cost-effective, requiring a smaller sample size than GWAS easier to identify a validation population and explore gene-gene interactions. In the current study, we adopted pathway-based approach focusing on two critical pathways - miRNA and inflammation pathways. MicroRNAs (miRNA) post-transcriptionally regulate around 30% of human genes. Polymorphisms within miRNA processing pathways and binding sites may influence patients’ prognosis through altered gene regulation. Inflammation plays an important role in cancer initiation and progression, and also has shown to impact patients’ clinical outcomes. We first evaluated 240 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in miRNA biogenesis genes and predicted binding sites in NSCLC patients to determine associations with clinical outcomes in early-stage (stage I and II) and late-stage (stage III and IV) lung cancer patients, respectively. First, in 535 early-stage patients, after correcting multiple comparisons, FZD4:rs713065 (hazard ratio [HR]:0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.32-0.65) showed a significant inverse association with survival in early stage surgery-only patients. SP1:rs17695156 (HR:2.22, 95% CI:1.44-3.41) and DROSHA:rs6886834 (HR:6.38, 95% CI:2.49-16.31) conferred increased risk of progression in the all patients and surgery-only populations, respectively. FAS:rs2234978 was significantly associated with improved survival in all patients (HR:0.59, 95% CI:0.44-0.77) and in the surgery plus chemotherapy populations (HR:0.19, 95% CI:0.07-0.46).. Functional genomics analysis demonstrated that this variant creates a miR-651 binding site resulting in altered miRNA regulation of FAS, providing biological plausibility for the observed association. We then analyzed these associations in 598 late-stage patients. After multiple comparison corrections, no SNPs remained significant in the late stage group, while the top SNP NAT1:rs15561 (HR=1.98, 96%CI=1.32-2.94) conferred a significantly increased risk of death in the chemotherapy subgroup. To test the hypothesis that genetic variants in the inflammation-related pathways may be associated with survival in NSCLC patients, we first conducted a three-stage study. In the discovery phase, we investigated a comprehensive panel of 11,930 inflammation-related SNPs in three independent lung cancer populations. A missense SNP (rs2071554) in HLA-DOB was significantly associated with poor survival in the discovery population (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.02-2.09), internal validation population (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.02-2.25), and external validation (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.01-2.29) population. Rs2900420 in KLRK1 was significantly associated with a reduced risk for death in the discovery (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60-0.96) and internal validation (HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.99) populations, and the association reached borderline significance in the external validation population (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.63-1.02). We also evaluated these inflammation-related SNPs in NSCLC patients in never smokers. Lung cancer in never smokers has been increasingly recognized as distinct disease from that in ever-smokers. A two-stage study was performed using a discovery population from MD Anderson (411 patients) and a validation population from Mayo Clinic (311 patients). Three SNPs (IL17RA:rs879576, BMP8A:rs698141, and STK:rs290229) that were significantly associated with survival were validated (pCD74:rs1056400 and CD38:rs10805347) were borderline significant (p=0.08) in the Mayo Clinic population. In the combined analysis, IL17RA:rs879576 resulted in a 40% reduction in the risk for death (p=4.1 × 10-5 [p=0.61, heterogeneity test]). We also validated a survival tree created in MD Anderson population in the Mayo Clinic population. In conclusion, our results provided strong evidence that genetic variations in specific pathways that examined (miRNA and inflammation pathways) influenced clinical outcomes in NSCLC patients, and with further functional studies, the novel loci have potential to be translated into clinical use.

Evaluating the disparity of female breast cancer mortality among racial groups - a spatiotemporal analysis

Background The literature suggests that the distribution of female breast cancer mortality demonstrates spatial concentration. There remains a lack of studies on how the mortality burden may impact racial groups across space and over time. The present study evaluated the geographic variations in breast cancer mortality in Texas females according to three predominant racial groups (non-Hispanic White, Black, and Hispanic females) over a twelve-year period. It sought to clarify whether the spatiotemporal trend might place an uneven burden on particular racial groups, and whether the excess trend has persisted into the current decade. Methods The Spatial Scan Statistic was employed to examine the geographic excess of breast cancer mortality by race in Texas counties between 1990 and 2001. The statistic was conducted with a scan window of a maximum of 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. The next scan was conducted with a purely spatial option to verify whether the excess mortality persisted further. Spatial queries were performed to locate the regions of excess mortality affecting multiple racial groups. Results The first scan identified 4 regions with breast cancer mortality excess in both non-Hispanic White and Hispanic female populations. The most likely excess mortality with a relative risk of 1.12 (p = 0.001) occurred between 1990 and 1996 for non-Hispanic Whites, including 42 Texas counties along Gulf Coast and Central Texas. For Hispanics, West Texas with a relative risk of 1.18 was the most probable region of excess mortality (p = 0.001). Results of the second scan were identical to the first. This suggested that the excess mortality might not persist to the present decade. Spatial queries found that 3 counties in Southeast and 9 counties in Central Texas had excess mortality involving multiple racial groups. Conclusion Spatiotemporal variations in breast cancer mortality affected racial groups at varying levels. There was neither evidence of hot-spot clusters nor persistent spatiotemporal trends of excess mortality into the present decade. Non-Hispanic Whites in the Gulf Coast and Hispanics in West Texas carried the highest burden of mortality, as evidenced by spatial concentration and temporal persistence.

Antibodies targeting hepatoma-derived growth factor as a novel strategy in treating lung cancer.

Hepatoma-derived growth factor (HDGF) is overexpressed in lung cancer and the overexpression correlates with aggressive biological behaviors and poor clinical outcomes. We developed anti-HDGF monoclonal antibodies and tested their antitumor activity in lung cancer xenograft models. We also determined biological effects in tumors treated with the antibody alone or in combination with bevacizumab/avastin (an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor antibody) and/or gemcitabine (a chemotherapeutic agent). We found the anti-HDGF was effective to inhibit tumor growth in non-small cell lung cancer xenograft models. In the A549 model, compared with control IgG, tumor growth was substantially inhibited in animals treated with anti-HDGF antibodies, particularly HDGF-C1 (P = 0.002) and HDGF-H3 (P = 0.005). When HDGF-H3 was combined with either bevacizumab or gemcitabine, we observed enhanced tumor growth inhibition, particularly when the three agents were used together. HDGF-H3-treated tumors exhibited significant reduction of microvessel density with a pattern distinctive from the microvessel reduction pattern observed in bevacizumab-treated tumors. HDGF-H3-treated but not bevacizumab-treated tumors also showed a significant increase of apoptosis. Interestingly, many of the apoptotic cells in HDGF-H3-treated tumors are stroma cells, suggesting that the mechanism of the antitumor activity is, at least in part, through disrupting formation of tumor-stroma structures. Our results show that HDGF is a novel therapeutic target for lung cancer and can be effectively targeted by an antibody-based approach.

EMPLOYMENT AND EXPOSURES IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES AND THE RISK OF LUNG CANCER (EPIDEMIOLOGY, ASSESSMENT)

This dissertation addresses the risk of lung cancer associated with occupational exposures in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. Earlier epidemiologic studies of this association did not adjust for cigarette smoking or have specific exposure classifications. The Texas EXposure Assessment System (TEXAS) was developed with data from a population-based, case-comparison study conducted in five southeast Texas counties between 1976 and 1980. The Texas Exposure Assessment System uses job and process categories developed by the American Petroleum Institute, as well as time-oriented variables to identify high risk groups.^ An industry-wide, increased risk for lung cancer was associated with jobs having low-level hydrocarbon exposure that also include other occupational inhalation exposures (OR = 2.0--adjusted for smoking and latency effects). The prohibition of cigarette smoking for jobs with high-level hydrocarbon exposure might explain part of the increased risk for jobs with low-level hydrocarbon exposures. Asbestos exposure comprises a large part of the risk associated with jobs having other inhalation exposures besides hydrocarbons. Workers in petroleum refineries were not shown to have an increased, occupational risk for lung cancer. The increased risk for lung cancer among petrochemical workers (OR = 3.1--smoking and latency adjusted) is associated with all jobs that involve other inhalation exposure characteristics (not only low-level hydrocarbon exposures). Findings for contract workers and workers exposed to specific chemicals were inconclusive although some hypotheses for future research were identified.^ The study results demonstrate that the predominant risk for lung cancer is due to cigarette smoking (OR = 9.8). Cigarette smoking accounts for 86.5% of the incident lung cancer cases within the study area. Workers in the petroleum industry smoke significantly less than persons employed in other industries (p << 0.001). Only 2.2% of the incident lung cancer cases may be attributed to petroleum industry jobs; lifestyle factors (e.g., nutrition) may be associated with the balance of the cases. The results from this study also suggest possible high risk time periods (OR = 3.9--smoking and occupation adjusted). Artifacts in time-oriented findings may result because of the latency interval for lung cancer, secular peaks in age-, sex-specific incidence rates, or periods of hazardous exposures in the petroleum industry. ^

Primary lung cancer after breast cancer: The role of radiation therapy and cigarette smoking

The magnitude of the interaction between cigarette smoking, radiation therapy, and primary lung cancer after breast cancer remains unresolved. This case control study further examines the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation therapy (XRT) among breast cancer patients who subsequently developed primary lung cancer, at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) in Houston, Texas. Cases (n = 280) were women diagnosed with primary lung cancer between 1955 and 1970, between 30–89 years of age, who had a prior history of breast cancer, and were U.S. residents. Controls (n = 300) were randomly selected from 37,000 breast cancer patients at MDACC and frequency matched to cases on age at diagnosis (in 5-year strata), ethnicity, year of breast cancer diagnosis (in 5-year strata), and had survived at least as long as the time interval for lung cancer diagnosis in the cases. Stratified analysis and unconditional logistic regression modeling were used to calculate the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation treatment on lung cancer risk. Medical record review yielded smoking information on 93% of cases and 84% of controls, and among cases 45% received XRT versus 44% of controls. Smoking increased the odds of lung cancer in women who did not receive XRT (OR = 6.0, 95%CI, 3.5–10.1) whereas XRT was not associated with increased odds (OR = 0.5, 95%CI, 0.2–1.1) in women who did not smoke. Overall the odds ratio for both XRT and smoking together compared with neither exposure was 9.00 (9 5% CI, 5.1–15.9). Similarly, when stratifying on laterality of the lung cancer in relation to the breast cancer, and when the time interval between breast and lung cancers was >10 years, there was an increased odds for both smoking and XRT together for lung cancers on the same side as the breast cancer (ipsilateral) (OR = 11.5, 95% CI, 4.9–27.8) and lung cancers on the opposite side of the breast cancer (contralateral) (OR= 9.6, 95% CI, 2.9–0.9). After 20 years the odds for the ipsilateral lung were even more pronounced (OR = 19.2, 95% CI, 4.2–88.4) compared to the contralateral lung (OR = 2.6, 95% CI, 0.2–2.1). In conclusion, smoking was a significant independent risk factor for lung cancer after breast cancer. Moreover, a greater than multiplicative effect was observed with smoking and XRT combined being especially evident after 10 years for both the ipsilateral and contralateral lung and after 20 years for the ipsilateral lung. ^

4HPR-X radiation mechanisms of interactions in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells in vitro

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death. However, poor survival using conventional therapies fuel the search for more rational interventions. The objective of this study was to design and implement a 4HPR-radiation interaction model in NSCLC, employing a traditional clinical modality (radiation), a relatively new, therapeutically unexplored agent (4HPR) and rationally combining them based on molecular mechanistic findings pertaining to their interactions. To test the hypothesis that 4HPR sensitizes cells to radiation-induced cell death via G2+M accumulation, we designed a working model consisting of H522 adenocarcinoma cells (p53, K-ras mutated) derived from an NSCLC patient; 4HPR at concentrations up to 10 μM; and X radiation up to 6 Gy generated by a patient-dedicated Phillips RT-250 X ray unit at 250 KV, 15 mA, 1.85 Gy/min. We found that 4HPR produced time- and dose-dependent morphological changes, growth inhibition, and DNA damage-inducing enhancement of reactive oxygen species. A transient G2+M accumulation of cells maximal at 24 h of continuous 4HPR exposure was used for irradiation time scheduling. Our data demonstrated enhanced cell death (both apoptotic and necrotic) in irradiated cells pre-treated with 4HPR versus those with either stressor alone. 4HPR's effect of increased NSCLC cells' radioresponse was confirmed by clonogenic assay. To explore these practical findings from a molecular mechanistic perspective, we further investigated and showed that levels of cyclin B1 and p34cdc2 kinase—both components of the mitosis promoting factor (MPF) regulating the G2/M transition—did not change following 4HPR treatment. Likewise, cdc25C phosphatase was not altered. However, enhanced p34cdc2 phosphorylation on its Thr14Tyr15 residues—indicative of its inactivation and increased expression of MPF negative regulators chk1 and wee1 kinases—were supportive of explaining 4HPR-treated cells' accumulation. Hence, p34cdc2 phosphorylation, chk1, and wee1 warrant further evaluation as potential molecular targets for 4HPR-X radiation combination. In summary, we (1) demonstrated that 4HPR not only induces cell death by itself, but also increases NSCLC cells' subsequent radioresponse, indicative of potential clinical applicability, and (2) for the first time, shed light on deciphering 4HPR-X radiation molecular mechanisms of interaction, including the finding of 4HPR's role as a p34cdc2 inactivator via Thr14Tyr15 phosphorylation. ^

Risk of second primary tumors following treatment of non-small cell lung cancer

Background. The rise in survival rates along with more detailed follow-up using sophisticated imaging studies among non-small lung cancer (NSCLC) patients has led to an increased risk of second primary tumors (SPT) among these cases. Population and hospital based studies of lung cancer patients treated between 1974 and 1996 have found an increasing risk over time for the development of all cancers following treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). During this time the primary modalities for treatment were surgery alone, radiation alone, surgery and post-operative radiation therapy, or combinations of chemotherapy and radiation (sequentially or concurrently). There is limited information in the literature about the impact of treatment modalities on the development of second primary tumors in these patients. ^ Purpose. To investigate the impact of treatment modalities on the risk of second primary tumors in patients receiving treatment with curative intent for non-metastatic (Stage I–III) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ^ Methods. The hospital records of 1,095 NSCLC patients who were diagnosed between 1980–2001 and received treatment with curative intent at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center with surgery alone, radiation alone (with a minimum total radiation dose of at least 45Gy), surgery and post-operative radiation therapy, radiation therapy in combination with chemotherapy or surgery in combination with chemotherapy and radiation were retrospectively reviewed. A second primary malignancy was be defined as any tumor histologically different from the initial cancer, or of another anatomic location, or a tumor of the same location and histology as the initial tumor having an interval between cancers of at least five years. Only primary tumors occurring after treatment for NSCLC will qualified as second primary tumors for this study. ^ Results. The incidence of second primary tumor was 3.3%/year and the rate increased over time following treatment. The type of NSCLC treatment was not found to have a striking effect upon SPT development. Increased rates were observed in the radiation only and chemotherapy plus radiation treatment groups; but, these increases did not exceed expected random variation. Higher radiation treatment dose, patient age and weight loss prior to index NSCLC treatment were associated with higher SPT development. ^

Metastatic lung cancer in a new mouse model inheriting p53 and latent K-ras mutations

Lung cancer is a devastating disease with very poor prognosis. The design of better treatments for patients would be greatly aided by mouse models that closely resemble the human disease. The most common type of human lung cancer is adenocarcinoma with frequent metastasis. Unfortunately, current models for this tumor are inadequate due to the absence of metastasis. Based on the molecular findings in human lung cancer and metastatic potential of osteosarcomas in mutant p53 mouse models, I hypothesized that mice with both K-ras and p53 missense mutations might develop metastatic lung adenocarcinomas. Therefore, I incorporated both K-rasLA1 and p53RI72HΔg alleles into mouse lung cells to establish a more faithful model for human lung adenocarcinoma and for translational and mechanistic studies. Mice with both mutations ( K-rasLA1/+ p53R172HΔg/+) developed advanced lung adenocarcinomas with similar histopathology to human tumors. These lung adenocarcinomas were highly aggressive and metastasized to multiple intrathoracic and extrathoracic sites in a pattern similar to that seen in lung cancer patients. This mouse model also showed gender differences in cancer related death and developed pleural mesotheliomas in 23.2% of them. In a preclinical study, the new drug Erlotinib (Tarceva) decreased the number and size of lung lesions in this model. These data demonstrate that this mouse model most closely mimics human metastatic lung adenocarcinoma and provides an invaluable system for translational studies. ^ To screen for important genes for metastasis, gene expression profiles of primary lung adenocarcinomas and metastases were analyzed. Microarray data showed that these two groups were segregated in gene expression and had 79 highly differentially expressed genes (more than 2.5 fold changes and p<0.001). Microarray data of Bub1b, Vimentin and CCAM1 were validated in tumors by quantitative real-time PCR (QPCR). Bub1b , a mitotic checkpoint gene, was overexpressed in metastases and this correlated with more chromosomal abnormalities in metastatic cells. Vimentin, a marker of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), was also highly expressed in metastases. Interestingly, Twist, a key EMT inducer, was also highly upregulated in metastases by QPCR, and this significantly correlated with the overexpression of Vimentin in the same tumors. These data suggest EMT occurs in lung adenocarcinomas and is a key mechanism for the development of metastasis in K-ras LA1/+ p53R172HΔg/+ mice. Thus, this mouse model provides a unique system to further probe the molecular basis of metastatic lung cancer.^

An empirical evaluation of the Random Forests classifier models for variable selection in a large-scale lung cancer case-control study

Random Forests™ is reported to be one of the most accurate classification algorithms in complex data analysis. It shows excellent performance even when most predictors are noisy and the number of variables is much larger than the number of observations. In this thesis Random Forests was applied to a large-scale lung cancer case-control study. A novel way of automatically selecting prognostic factors was proposed. Also, synthetic positive control was used to validate Random Forests method. Throughout this study we showed that Random Forests can deal with large number of weak input variables without overfitting. It can account for non-additive interactions between these input variables. Random Forests can also be used for variable selection without being adversely affected by collinearities. ^ Random Forests can deal with the large-scale data sets without rigorous data preprocessing. It has robust variable importance ranking measure. Proposed is a novel variable selection method in context of Random Forests that uses the data noise level as the cut-off value to determine the subset of the important predictors. This new approach enhanced the ability of the Random Forests algorithm to automatically identify important predictors for complex data. The cut-off value can also be adjusted based on the results of the synthetic positive control experiments. ^ When the data set had high variables to observations ratio, Random Forests complemented the established logistic regression. This study suggested that Random Forests is recommended for such high dimensionality data. One can use Random Forests to select the important variables and then use logistic regression or Random Forests itself to estimate the effect size of the predictors and to classify new observations. ^ We also found that the mean decrease of accuracy is a more reliable variable ranking measurement than mean decrease of Gini. ^

The role of smoking status on postoperative complications and survival in lung cancer patients presenting to M.D. Anderson Cancer Center

It is estimated that 50% of all lung cancer patients continue to smoke after diagnosis. Many of these lung cancer patients who are current smokers often experience tremendous guilt and responsibility for their disease, and feel it might be too late for them to quit smoking. In addition, many oncologists may be heard to say that it is 'too late', 'it doesn't matter', 'it is too difficult', 'it is too stressful' for their patients to stop smoking, or they never identify the smoking status of the patient. Many oncologists feel unprepared to address smoking cessation as part of their clinical practice. In reality, physicians can have tremendous effects on motivating patients, particularly when patients are initially being diagnosed with cancer. More information is needed to convince patients to quit smoking and to encourage clinicians to assist patients with their smoking cessation. ^ In this current study, smoking status at time of lung cancer diagnosis was assessed to examine its impact on complications and survival, after exploring the reliability of smoking data that is self-reported. Logistic Regression was used to determine the risks of smoking prior to lung resection. In addition, survival analysis was performed to examine the impact of smoking on survival. ^ The reliability of how patients report their smoking status was high, but there was some discordance between current smokers and recent quitters. In addition, we found that cigarette pack-year history and duration of smoking cessation were directly related to the rate of a pulmonary complication. In regards to survival, we found that current smoking at time of lung cancer diagnosis was an independent predictor of early stage lung cancer. This evidence supports the idea that it is "never too late" for patients to quit smoking and health care providers should incorporate smoking status regularly into their clinical practice.^

A case-control study of tea/coffee consumption and lung cancer risk

Background. Despite the increasing attention to the effects of dietary factors on lung cancer risk, epidemiological research on the role of black/green tea and coffee intake and lung cancer risk is scarce. The purpose of this study was to explore the following three hypotheses: (1) the preventive (protective) effect from lung cancer is higher in green tea than in black tea and coffee consumption. (2) brewed tea (either black or green) daily drinkers have lower odds of lung cancer than non-drinkers of brewed tea (3) regular black and green tea have more preventive effect against lung cancer than decaffeinated teas due to the synergistic effect of caffeine and other tea components. ^ Methods. Data on 1,088 lung cancer cases and 1,127 controls from an ongoing epidemiological study of lung cancer by the Department of Epidemiology of the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer were analyzed. Multiple logistic regressions were performed for testing associations between frequency of specific types of tea/coffee consumption and the risk of lung cancer. ^ Results. We observed that more than a cup a week of green tea and decaffeinated black tea were significantly associated with reduced odds of lung cancer by 64% for green tea (adjusted OR = 0.44; 95% CI = 0.31–0.64), 36% for decaffeinated black tea (OR = 0.64; 95% CI = 0.45–0.90), when compared with non-drinkers and those who drank less than a cup a week. On the other hand, increasing intake of regular coffee (more than 3 cups a day) was associated with a 30% higher odds ratio of lung cancer (OR = 1.30; 95% CI = 1.01–1.09). No association was found between regular black tea, decaffeinated coffee consumption and the odds ratio of lung cancer. However, when drinkers of other tea/coffee beverages were excluded from each model in order to explore the independent effect of each type of tea/coffee, green tea and decaffeinated black tea-lung cancer associations remained but no association was observed for drinkers of regular coffee. ^ Conclusion. We report the chemopreventive effects of more than a cup a week of green tea and decaffeinated black tea on lung cancer. ^