MEDICAL CARE UTILIZATION IN TIME AMONG ELDERLY MEDICARE ENROLLEES IN AN HMO

Investigation into the medical care utilization of elderly Medicare enrollees in an HMO (Kaiser - Portland, Oregon): The specific research topics are: (1) The utilization of medical care by selected determinants such as: place of service, type of service, type of appointment, physician status, physician specialty and number of associated morbidities. (2) The attended prevalence of 3 chronic diseases: hypertension, diabetes and arthritis in addition to pneumonias as an example of acute diseases. The selection of these examples was based on their importance in morbidity/or mortality results among the elderly. The share of these diseases in outpatient and inpatient contacts was examined as an example of the relation between morbidity and medical care utilization. (3) The tendency of individual utilization patterns to persist in subsequent time periods. The concept of contagion or proneness was studied in a period of 2 years. Fitting the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions was applied to the utilization in the 2nd year conditional on that in the 1st year as regards outpatient and inpatient contacts.^ The present research is based on a longitudinal study of 20% random sample of elderly Medicare enrollees. The sample size is 1683 individuals during the period from August 1980-December 1982.^ The results of the research were: (1) The distribution of contacts by selected determinants did not reveal a consistent pattern between sexes and age groups. (2) The attended prevalence of hypertension and arthritis showed excess prevalence among females. For diabetes and pneumonias no female excess was noticed. Consistent increased prevalence with increasing age was not detected.^ There were important findings pertaining to the relatively big share of the combined 3 chronic diseases in utilization. They accounted for 20% of male outpatient contacts vs. 25% of female outpatients. For inpatient contacts, they consumed 20% in case of males vs. 24% in case of females. (3) Finding that the negative binomial distribution fit the utilization experience supported the research hypothesis concerning the concept of contagion in utilization. This important finding can be helpful in estimating liability functions needed for forecasting future utilization according to previous experience. Such information has its relevance to organization, administration and planning for medical care in general. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

The volume effect in irradiated mouse colorectum

Damage of the colorectum is the dose-limiting normal tissue complication following radiotherapy of prostate and cervical cancers. One approach for decreasing complications is to physically reduce the treatment volume. Mathematical models have been previously developed to describe the change in associated toxicity with a change in irradiated volume, i.e. the "volume effect", for serial-type normal tissues including the colorectum. The first goal of this thesis was to test the hypothesis that there would not be a threshold length in the development of obstruction after irradiation of mouse colorectum, as predicted by the Probability model of the volume effect. The second goal was to examine if there were differences in the threshold and in the incidence of colorectal obstruction after irradiation of two mouse strains, C57B1/6 (C57) and C3Hf/Kam (C3H), previously found to be fibrosis-prone and-resistant, respectively, after lung irradiation due, in part, to genetic differences. The hypothesis examined was that differences in incidence between strains were due to the differential expression of the fibrogenic cytokines $\rm TGF\beta$ and $\rm TNF\alpha.$ Various lengths of C57 and C3H mouse colorectum were irradiated and the incidence of colorectal obstruction was followed up to 15 months. A threshold length was observed for both mouse strains, in contradiction of model predictions. The mechanism of the threshold was epithelial regeneration after irradiation. C57 mice had significantly higher incidence of colorectal obstruction compared to C3H mice, especially at smaller irradiated lengths. Colorectal tissue was obtained at various times after irradiation and prepared for histology, immunohistochemistry and RNase protection assay for measurement of $\rm TGF\beta 1,$ 2, 3 and $\rm TNF\alpha$ mRNA. Distinct strain differences in the histological time of appearance and spatial locations of fibrosis were observed. However, there were no consistent strain difference in mRNA levels or immunolocalization for any of the cytokines examined. The data indicate the need for volume effect models that account for biologically important processes, such as the effect of epithelial regeneration after irradiation. As well, changes in fibrogenic cytokines at the mRNA level do not contribute to the strain difference in radiation-induced colorectal obstruction. ^

Assessment of cone beam computed tomography techniques for imaging lung damage in mice in vivo

Lung damage is a common side effect of chemotherapeutic drugs such as bleomycin. This study used a bleomycin mouse model which simulates the lung damage observed in humans. Noninvasive, in vivo cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) was used to visualize and quantify fibrotic and inflammatory damage over the entire lung volume of mice. Bleomycin was used to induce pulmonary damage in vivo and the results from two CBCT systems, a micro-CT and flat panel CT (fpCT), were compared to histologic measurements, the standard method of murine lung damage quantification. Twenty C57BL/6 mice were given either 3 U/kg of bleomycin or saline intratracheally. The mice were scanned at baseline, before the administration of bleomycin, and then 10, 14, and 21 days afterward. At each time point, a subset of mice was sacrificed for histologic analysis. The resulting CT images were used to assess lung volume. Percent lung damage (PLD) was calculated for each mouse on both the fpCT (PLDfpcT) and the micro-CT (PLDμCT). Histologic PLD (PLDH) was calculated for each histologic section at each time point (day 10, n = 4; day 14, n = 4; day 21, n = 5; control group, n = 5). A linear regression was applied to the PLDfpCT vs. PLDH, PLDμCT vs. PLDH and PLDfpCT vs. PLDμCT distributions. This study did not demonstrate strong correlations between PLDCT and PLDH. The coefficient of determination, R, was 0.68 for PLDμCT vs. PLDH and 0.75 for the PLD fpCT vs. PLDH. The experimental issues identified from this study were: (1) inconsistent inflation of the lungs from scan to scan, (2) variable distribution of damage (one histologic section not representative of overall lung damage), (3) control mice not scanned with each group of bleomycin mice, (4) two CT systems caused long anesthesia time for the mice, and (5) respiratory gating did not hold the volume of lung constant throughout the scan. Addressing these issues might allow for further improvement of the correlation between PLDCT and PLDH. ^

EMPLOYMENT AND EXPOSURES IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES AND THE RISK OF LUNG CANCER (EPIDEMIOLOGY, ASSESSMENT)

This dissertation addresses the risk of lung cancer associated with occupational exposures in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. Earlier epidemiologic studies of this association did not adjust for cigarette smoking or have specific exposure classifications. The Texas EXposure Assessment System (TEXAS) was developed with data from a population-based, case-comparison study conducted in five southeast Texas counties between 1976 and 1980. The Texas Exposure Assessment System uses job and process categories developed by the American Petroleum Institute, as well as time-oriented variables to identify high risk groups.^ An industry-wide, increased risk for lung cancer was associated with jobs having low-level hydrocarbon exposure that also include other occupational inhalation exposures (OR = 2.0--adjusted for smoking and latency effects). The prohibition of cigarette smoking for jobs with high-level hydrocarbon exposure might explain part of the increased risk for jobs with low-level hydrocarbon exposures. Asbestos exposure comprises a large part of the risk associated with jobs having other inhalation exposures besides hydrocarbons. Workers in petroleum refineries were not shown to have an increased, occupational risk for lung cancer. The increased risk for lung cancer among petrochemical workers (OR = 3.1--smoking and latency adjusted) is associated with all jobs that involve other inhalation exposure characteristics (not only low-level hydrocarbon exposures). Findings for contract workers and workers exposed to specific chemicals were inconclusive although some hypotheses for future research were identified.^ The study results demonstrate that the predominant risk for lung cancer is due to cigarette smoking (OR = 9.8). Cigarette smoking accounts for 86.5% of the incident lung cancer cases within the study area. Workers in the petroleum industry smoke significantly less than persons employed in other industries (p << 0.001). Only 2.2% of the incident lung cancer cases may be attributed to petroleum industry jobs; lifestyle factors (e.g., nutrition) may be associated with the balance of the cases. The results from this study also suggest possible high risk time periods (OR = 3.9--smoking and occupation adjusted). Artifacts in time-oriented findings may result because of the latency interval for lung cancer, secular peaks in age-, sex-specific incidence rates, or periods of hazardous exposures in the petroleum industry. ^

Environmental tobacco smoke exposure, respiratory and cardiovascular health in restaurant and bar workers in Mexico

Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is a well established health hazard, being causally associated to lung cancer and cardiovascular disease. ETS regulations have been developed worldwide to reduce or eliminate exposure in most public places. Restaurants and bars constitute an exception. Restaurants and bar workers experience the highest ETS exposure levels across several occupations, with correspondingly increased health risks. In Mexico, previous exposure assessment in restaurants and bars showed concentrations in bars and restaurants to be the highest across different public and workplaces. Recently, Mexico developed at the federal level the General Law for Tobacco Control restricting indoors smoking to separated areas. AT the local level Mexico City developed the Law for the Protection of Non-smokers Health, completely banning smoking in restaurants and bars. Studies to assess ETS exposure in restaurants and bars, along with potential health effects were required to evaluate the impact of these legislative changes and to set a baseline measurement for future evaluations.^ A large cross-sectional study conducted in restaurants and bars from four Mexican cities was conducted from July to October 2008, to evaluate the following aims: Aim 1) Explore the potential impact of the Mexico City ban on ETS concentrations through comparison of Mexico City with other cities. Aim 2). Explore the association between ETS exposure, respiratory function indicators and respiratory symptoms. Aim 3). Explore the association between ETS exposure and blood pressure and heart rate.^ Three cities with no smoking ban were selected: Colima (11.5% smoking prevalence), Cuernavaca (21.5% smoking prevalence) and Toluca (27.8% smoking prevalence). Mexico City (27.9% smoking prevalence), the only city with a ban at the time of the study, was also selected. Restaurants and bars were randomly selected from municipal records. A goal of 26 restaurants and 26 bars per city was set, 50% of them under 100 m2. Each establishment was visited during the highest occupancy shift, and managers and workers answered to a questionnaire. Vapor-phase nicotine was measured using passive monitors, that were activated at the beginning and deactivated at the end of the shift. Also, workers participated at the beginning and end of the shift in a short physical evaluation, comprising the measurement of Forced Expiratory Volume in the first second (FEV1) and Peak Expiratory Flow (PEF), as well as blood pressure and heart rate.^ A total of 371 establishments were invited, 219 agreed to participate for a 60.1% participation rate. In them, 828 workers were invited, 633 agreed to participate for a 76% participation rate. Mexico City had at least 4 times less nicotine compared to any of the other cities. Differences between Mexico City and other cities were not explained by establishment characteristics, such as ventilation or air extraction. However, differences between cities disappeared when ban mechanisms, such as policy towards costumer's smoking, were considered in the models. An association between ETS exposure and respiratory symptoms (cough OR=1.27, 95%CI=1.04, 1.55) and respiratory illness (asthma OR=1.97, 95%CI=1.20, 3.24; respiratory illness OR=1.79, 95%CI=1.10, 2.94) was observed. No association between ETS and phlegm, wheezing or respiratory infections was observed. No association between ETS and any of the spirometric indicators was observed. An association between ETS exposure and increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure at the end of the shift was observed among non-smokers (systolic blood pressure beta=1.51, 95%CI=0.44, 2.58; diastolic blood pressure beta=1.50, 95%CI=0.72, 2.28). The opposite effect was observed in heavy smokers, were increased ETS exposure was associated with lower blood pressure at the end of the shift (systolic blood pressure beta=1.90, 95%CI=-3.57, -0.23; diastolic blood pressure beta=-1.46, 95%CI=-2.72, -0.02). No association in light smokers was observed. No association for heart rate was observed. ^ Results from this dissertation suggest Mexico City's smoking ban has had a larger impact on ETS exposure. Ventilation or air extraction, mechanisms of ETS control suggested frequently by tobacco companies to avoid smoking bans were not associated with ETS exposure. This dissertation suggests ETS exposure could be linked to changes in blood pressure and to increased respiratory symptoms. Evidence derived from this dissertation points to the potential negative health effects of ETS exposure in restaurants and bars, and provides support for the development of total smoking bans in this economic sector. ^

Genetic underpinnings of variation in brain ventricular volume: A genome-wide association study

The ventricular system is a critical component of the central nervous system (CNS) that is formed early in the developmental stages and remains functional through the lifetime. Changes in the ventricular system can be easily discerned via neuroimaging procedures and most of the time it reflects changes in the physiology of the CNS. In this study we attempted to identify specific genes associated with variation in ventricular volume in humans. Methods. We conducted a genome wide association (GWA) analysis of the volume of the lateral ventricles among 1605 individuals of European ancestry from two community based cohorts, the Genetics of Microangiopathic Brain Injury (GMBI; N=814) and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC; N=791). Significant findings from the analysis were tested for replication in both the cohorts and then meta-analyzed to get an estimate of overall significance. Results. In our GWA analyses, no single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reached a genome-wide significance of p<10−8. There were 25 SNPs in GMBI and 9 SNPs in ARIC that reached a threshold of p<10 −5. However, none of the top SNPs from each cohort were replicated in the other. In the meta-analysis, no SNP reached the genome-wide threshold of 5×10−8, but we identified five novel SNPs associated with variation in ventricular volume at the p<10 −5 level. Strongest association was for rs2112536 in an intergenic region on chromosome 5q33 (Pmeta= 8.46×10−7 ). The remaining four SNPs were located on chromosome 3q23 encompassing the gene for Calsyntenin-2 (CLSTN2). The SNPs with strongest association in this region were rs17338555 (Pmeta= 5.28×10 −6), rs9812091 (Pmeta= 5.89×10−6 ), rs9812283 (Pmeta= 5.97×10−6) and rs9833213 (Pmeta= 6.96×10−6). Conclusions. This GWA study of ventricular volumes in the community-based cohorts of European descent identifies potential locus on chromosomes 3 and 5. Further characterization of these loci may provide insights into pathophysiology of ventricular involvement in various neurological diseases.^

The Role of Cancer-Associated Fibroblasts in Lung Tumorigenesis

The extracellular milieu is rich in growth factors that drive tumor progression,but the mechanisms that govern tumor cell sensitivity to those ligands have notbeen fully defined. In this study, we address this question in mice that developmetastatic lung adenocarcinomas through the suppression of the microRNA-200 (miR-200) family. Cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAF) enhance tumorgrowth and invasion by secreting VEGF-A that binds to VEGFR1, a processrequired for tumor growth and metastasis in mice and correlated with a poorprognosis in lung adenocarcinoma patients. In this study, we discovered thatmiR-200 blocked CAF-induced tumor cell invasion by directly targetingVEGFR1 in tumor cells. In the context of previous studies, our findings suggestthat the miR-200 family is a point of convergence for diverse biologic processesthat regulate tumor cell proliferation, invasion, and metastasis; its target genesixdrive epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (ZEB1 and ZEB2) and promotesensitivity to a potent tumor growth factor emanating from the microenvironment(VEGFR1). Clinical trials should focus not only on the role of VEGFR1 inangiogenesis but also on the expression and activation of VEGFR1 in tumorcells by stromal sources of VEGF-A in the tumor microenvironment as a targetfor metastasis prevention.

Primary lung cancer after breast cancer: The role of radiation therapy and cigarette smoking

The magnitude of the interaction between cigarette smoking, radiation therapy, and primary lung cancer after breast cancer remains unresolved. This case control study further examines the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation therapy (XRT) among breast cancer patients who subsequently developed primary lung cancer, at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) in Houston, Texas. Cases (n = 280) were women diagnosed with primary lung cancer between 1955 and 1970, between 30–89 years of age, who had a prior history of breast cancer, and were U.S. residents. Controls (n = 300) were randomly selected from 37,000 breast cancer patients at MDACC and frequency matched to cases on age at diagnosis (in 5-year strata), ethnicity, year of breast cancer diagnosis (in 5-year strata), and had survived at least as long as the time interval for lung cancer diagnosis in the cases. Stratified analysis and unconditional logistic regression modeling were used to calculate the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation treatment on lung cancer risk. Medical record review yielded smoking information on 93% of cases and 84% of controls, and among cases 45% received XRT versus 44% of controls. Smoking increased the odds of lung cancer in women who did not receive XRT (OR = 6.0, 95%CI, 3.5–10.1) whereas XRT was not associated with increased odds (OR = 0.5, 95%CI, 0.2–1.1) in women who did not smoke. Overall the odds ratio for both XRT and smoking together compared with neither exposure was 9.00 (9 5% CI, 5.1–15.9). Similarly, when stratifying on laterality of the lung cancer in relation to the breast cancer, and when the time interval between breast and lung cancers was >10 years, there was an increased odds for both smoking and XRT together for lung cancers on the same side as the breast cancer (ipsilateral) (OR = 11.5, 95% CI, 4.9–27.8) and lung cancers on the opposite side of the breast cancer (contralateral) (OR= 9.6, 95% CI, 2.9–0.9). After 20 years the odds for the ipsilateral lung were even more pronounced (OR = 19.2, 95% CI, 4.2–88.4) compared to the contralateral lung (OR = 2.6, 95% CI, 0.2–2.1). In conclusion, smoking was a significant independent risk factor for lung cancer after breast cancer. Moreover, a greater than multiplicative effect was observed with smoking and XRT combined being especially evident after 10 years for both the ipsilateral and contralateral lung and after 20 years for the ipsilateral lung. ^

Trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance from 2003--2007 at Pham Ngoc Thach tuberculosis and lung disease hospital, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Vietnam is one of the countries with the highest prevalence and incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the world (1). Although Vietnam has had many successes in TB control, it still faces the challenge of drug resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). MDR-TB appears to be relatively stable, but data on MDR-TB continues to be scarce and routine testing of all isolates for drug susceptibility is not performed under Vietnam's National Tuberculosis Program (6). Pham Ngoc Thach Hospital (PNT), the leading tuberculosis and lung disease hospital in Ho Chi Minh City, serves as a reference hospital and laboratory for both Ho Chi Minh City and the Southern Vietnam region. This study is an unmatched, nested case-control study consisting of a secondary analysis of a previously created dataset composed of drug susceptibility and basic demographic data from a cohort of patients diagnosed with tuberculosis at PNT from 2003 through 2007 in order to calculate the prevalence of resistance among acid-fast bacilli smear-positive patients. The susceptibility records for the years 2003-2004 were not representative of the entire population, but over the years 2005-2007 the investigator found a decrease in resistance to all primary TB drugs on which records were available, as well as MDR-TB. Overall, females showed a higher proportion of resistance to TB drugs than males, and females had a greater likelihood of presenting with MDR-TB than males (OR=1.77). Persons 35-54 had greater likelihood of having MDR-TB than younger and older age groups. Among the population with HIV data, HIV-positivity was associated with greater likelihood of MDR-TB (OR=1.70, 95% CI=0.97-3.11). This study shows that rates of TB drug resistance are high, but declining, in one of Vietnam's largest TB hospitals, and that females and HIV-positive individuals are possible high-risk groups in this population.^

The effect of triage team on time-in-department in a pediatric emergency department

Objective. To determine whether the use of a triage team would reduce the average time-in-department in a pediatric emergency department by 25%.^ Methods. A triage team consisting of a physician, a nurse, and a nurse's assistant initiated work-ups and saw patients who required minimal lab work-up and were likely to be discharged. Study days were randomized. Our inclusion criteria were all children seen in the emergency center between 6p and 2a Monday-Friday. Our exclusion criteria included resuscitations, inpatient-inpatient transfers, left without being seen, leaving against medical advice, any child seen outside of 6p-2am Monday-Friday and on the weekends. A Pearson-Chi square was used for comparison of the two groups for heterogeneity. For the time-in-department analysis, we performed a 2 sided t-test with a set alpha of 0.05 using Mann Whitney U looking for differences in time-in-department based on acuity level, disposition, and acuity level stratified by disposition. ^ Results. Among urgent and non-urgent patients, we found a statistically significant decrease in time-in-department in a pediatric emergency department. Urgent patients had a time-in-department that was 51 minutes shorter than patients seen on non-triage team days (p=0.007), which represents a 14% decrease in time-in-department. Non-urgent patients seen on triage team days had a time-in-department that was 24 minutes shorter than non-urgent patients seen on non-triage team days (p=0.009). From the disposition perspective, discharged patients seen on triage team days had a shorter time-in-department of 28 minutes as compared to those seen on non-triage team days (p=0.012). ^ Conclusion. Overall, there was a trend towards decreased time-in-department of 19 minutes (5.9% decrease) during triage team times. There was a statistically significant decrease in the time-in-department among urgent patients of 51 minutes (13.9% decrease) and among discharged patients of 28 minutes (8.4% decrease). Urgent care patients make up nearly a quarter of the emergency patient population and decreasing their time-in-department would likely make a significant impact on overall emergency flow.^

Joint effects of pulmonary function and aerobic power on survival in a cohort of healthy adults

Objective measurements of physical fitness and pulmonary function are related individually to long-term survival, both in healthy people and in those who are ill. These factors are furthermore known to be related to one another physiologically in people with pulmonary disease, because advanced pulmonary disease causes ventilatory limitation to exercise. Healthy people do not have ventilatory limitation to exercise, but rather have ventilatory reserve. The relationship between pulmonary function and exercise performance in healthy people is minimal. Exercise performance has been shown to modify the effect of pulmonary function on mortality in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but the relationship between these factors in healthy people has not been studied and is not known. The purpose of this study is to quantify the joint effects of pulmonary function and exercise performance as these bear on mortality in a cohort of healthy adults. This investigation is an historical cohort study over 20 years of follow-up of 29,624 adults who had complete preventive medicine, spirometry and treadmill stress examinations at the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, Texas.^ In 20 years of follow-up, there were 738 evaluable deaths. Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV$\sb1$) percent of predicted, treadmill time in minutes percent of predicted, age, gender, body mass index, baseline smoking status, serum glucose and serum total cholesterol were all significant, independent predictors of mortality risk. There were no frank interactions, although age had an important increasing effect on the risk associated with smoking when other covariates were controlled for in a proportional-hazards model. There was no confounding effect of exercise performance on pulmonary function. In agreement with the pertinent literature on independent effects, each unit increase in FEV$\sb1$ percent predicted was associated with about eight tenths of a percent reduction in adjusted mortality rate. The concept of physiologic reserve is useful in interpretation of the findings. Since pulmonary function does not limit exercise tolerance in healthy adults, it is reasonable to expect that exercise tolerance would not modify the effect of pulmonary function on mortality. Epidemiologic techniques are useful for elucidating physiological correlates of mortality risk. ^

TEMPORAL VARIATION OF ACUTE AND LUNG TUMORIGENIC EFFECTS OF URETHAN ON STRAIN A MICE (CHRONOBIOLOGY, CARCINOGENICITY, ANESTHETIC, DNA SYNTHESIS)

The effect of circadian variation on susceptibility to the chemical induction of cancer was assessed utilizing the mouse pulmonary adenoma bioassay. Different groups of male A/Jax mice (standardized for rhythm analysis with light from 0600-1800 and darkness from 1800-0600) each received a single timed i.p. injection of urethan (Bioassay I: 0.25, 0.5 or 1.0 mg/g body weight; Bioassay II: 0.75, 1.0, 1.25 mg/g body weight; Bioassay III: 1.0 mg/g body weight) at the following times, 0100, 0500, 0900, 1300, 1700 or 2100. Mice were sacrificed 16 weeks after treatment. The tumorigenic effect of urethan on the lungs (lung surface pulmonary adenomas) was assessed. In addition, mortality, body weight changes and the anesthetic effect of urethan were determined. The rhythmic pattern of DNA synthesis in the lung and the comparative rhythmic pattern in the liver were assessed using a tritiated thymidine incorporation assay.^ In the first adenoma bioassay, the lung tumorigenic response in mice given the highest dose of urethan exhibited a 12-hour rhythm with a major peak in tumor yield at 0100 and a secondary peak at 1300; reduced yields occurred at 0500-0900 and 2100. The second adenoma bioassay, studied at a 6-month seasonal divergence in time from the first study showed a peak at 1300 but not at 0100. The mice from the third adenoma bioassay, studied at an 11-month seasonal divergence in time from the 2nd study showed an increase in tumor yield during the rest cycle (0900-1700).^ This study found a definite suggestion of a low amplitude rhythm in susceptibility to urethan induced effects. The acute toxic and pharmacological effects correlated to exhibit a maximal effect during dark hours (activity span). This rhythmicity might be explained by an alteration in the amplitude of hepatic metabolism. The chronic carcinogenic response exhibited an opposite pattern. Urethan induced tumor response was greater during daylight hours (rest cycle). This correlated with the slight elevation in DNA synthetic activity found in the lung and liver which might be responsible for the increase in carcinogenic response. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

RESPIRATORY COMPENSATION MECHANISMS IN THE UPPER AND LOWER RESPIRATORY TRACTS OF AN ANIMAL MODEL AFTER SUBCHRONIC INHALATION EXPOSURE TO FORMALDEHYDE: IMPLICATIONS FOR TOXICOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT (DEPOSITION, DOSE RECEIVED, RESPONSE)

The potential for significant human populations to experience long-term inhalation of formaldehyde and reports of symptomatology due to this exposure has led to a considerable interest in the toxicologic assessment of risk from subchronic formaldehyde exposures using animal models. Since formaldehyde inhalation depresses certain respiratory parameters in addition to its other forms of toxicity, there is a potential for the alteration of the actual dose received by the exposed individual (and the resulting toxicity) due to this respiratory effect. The respiratory responses to formaldehyde inhalation and the subsequent pattern of deposition were therefore investigated in animals that had received subchronic exposure to the compound, and the potential for changes in the formaldehyde dose received due to long-term inhalation evaluated. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to either 0, 0.5, 3, or 15 ppm formaldehyde for 6 hours/day, 5 days/week for up to 6 months. The patterns of respiratory response, deposition and the compensation mechanisms involved were then determined in a series of formaldehyde test challenges to both the upper and to the lower respiratory tracts in separate groups of subchronically exposed animals and age-specific controls (four concentration groups, two time points). In both the control and pre-exposed animals, there was a characteristic recovery of respiratory parameters initially depressed by formaldehyde inhalation to at or approaching pre-exposure levels within 10 minutes of the initiation of exposure. Also, formaldehyde deposition was found to remain very high in the upper and lower tracts after long-term exposure. Therefore, there was probably little subsequent effect on the dose received by the exposed individual that was attributable to the repeated exposures. There was a diminished initial minute volume response in test challenges of both the upper and lower tracts of animals that had received at least 16 weeks of exposure to 15 ppm, with compensatory increases in tidal volume in the upper tract and respiratory rate in the lower tract. However, this dose-related effect was probably not relevant to human risk estimation because this formaldehyde dose is in excess of that experienced by human populations. ^

ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES AND LUNG CANCER RISK AMONG WOMEN IN HARRIS COUNTY, TEXAS, 1977-1980 (OCCUPATION, SMOKING, BYSTANDER)

Excessively high, accelerating lung cancer rates among women in Harris County, Texas, prompted this case-comparison study. Objectives were to compare patterns of employment, indirect exposures, and sociodemographic variables of lung cancer cases with comparison subjects (compeers) after standardizing for possible confounders, such as age and cigarette smoking. Lung cancer cases were microscopically confirmed, white, Harris County residents. Compeers, chosen from Medicare records and Texas Department of Public Safety records, were matched on gender, race, age, resident and vital status. Personal interviews were conducted with study subjects or next-of-kin. Industries and occupations were categorized as high risk, based on previous studies.^ Almost all cases (95.0%) and 60.0% of compeers smoked cigarettes. The odds ratio for lung cancer and smoking is 13.9. Stopping smoking between ages 30-50 years carries a lower risk than stopping at age 58 or more years. Women's employment in a high risk industry or occupation results in consistently elevated, smoking-adjusted odds ratios. Frequency and duration of employment demonstrate a moderate dose-response effect. A temporal association exists with employment in a high risk occupation during 1940-1949.^ No increased risk appeared with passive smoking. Husband's employment in a construction industry or a structural occupation significantly increased the smoking-adjusted odds ratios among cases and compeers (O.R. = 2.9, 2.2). Smoking-adjusted odds ratios increased significantly when women had resided with persons employed in cement (O.R. = 3.2) or insulation (O.R. = 5.5) manufacturing, or a high rise construction industry (O.R. = 2.4). A family history of lung cancer resulted in a two-fold increase in smoking-adjusted odds ratios. Vital status of compeers affected the odds ratios.^ Work-related exposures appear to increase the risk of lung cancer in women although cigarette smoking has the single highest odds ratio. Indirect exposure to certain employment also plays a significant role in lung cancer in women. Investigations of specific direct and indirect hazardous exposures in the workplace and home are needed. Cigarette smoking is as hazardous for women as for men. Smoking should be prevented and eliminated. ^

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.