Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SERUM CHOLESTEROL AND CANCER INCIDENCE IN THE POPULATION OF THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between serum cholesterol and cancer incidence was investigated in the population of the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center trial designed to test the effectiveness of a stepped program of medication in reducing mortality associated with hypertension. Over 10,000 participants, ages 30-69, were followed with clinic and home visits for a minimum of five years. Cancer incidence was ascertained from existing study documents, which included hospitalization records, autopsy reports and death certificates. During the five years of follow-up, 286 new cancer cases were documented. The distribution of sites and total number of cases were similar to those predicted using rates from the Third National Cancer Survey. A non-fasting baseline serum cholesterol level was available for most participants. Age, sex, and race specific five-year cancer incidence rates were computed for each cholesterol quartile. Rates were also computed by smoking status, education status, and percent ideal weight quartiles. In addition, these and other factors were investigated with the use of the multiple logistic model.^ For all cancers combined, a significant inverse relationship existed between baseline serum cholesterol levels and cancer incidence. Previously documented associations between smoking, education and cancer were also demonstrated but did not account for the relationship between serum cholesterol and cancer. The relationship was more evident in males than females but this was felt to represent the different distribution of occurrence of specific cancer sites in the two sexes. The inverse relationship existed for all specific sites investigated (except breast) although a level of statistical significance was reached only for prostate carcinoma. Analyses after exclusion of cases diagnosed during the first two years of follow-up still yielded an inverse relationship. Life table analysis indicated that competing risks during the period of follow-up did not account for the existence of an inverse relationship. It is concluded that a weak inverse relationship does exist between serum cholesterol for many but not all cancer sites. This relationship is not due to confounding by other known cancer risk factors, competing risks or persons entering the study with undiagnosed cancer. Not enough information is available at the present time to determine whether this relationship is causal and further research is suggested. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEGREE OF BLOOD PRESSURE REDUCTION AND MORTALITY AMONG HYPERTENSIVES IN THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between degree of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reduction and mortality was examined among hypertensives, ages 30-69, in the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center community-based trial, which followed 10,940 hypertensive participants for five years. One-year survival was required for inclusion in this investigation since the one-year annual visit was the first occasion where change in blood pressure could be measured on all participants. During the subsequent four years of follow-up on 10,052 participants, 568 deaths occurred. For levels of change in DBP and for categories of variables related to mortality, the crude mortality rate was calculated. Time-dependent life tables were also calculated so as to utilize available blood pressure data over time. In addition, the Cox life table regression model, extended to take into account both time-constant and time-dependent covariates, was used to examine the relationship change in blood pressure over time and mortality.^ The results of the time-dependent life table and time-dependent Cox life table regression analyses supported the existence of a quadratic function which modeled the relationship between DBP reduction and mortality, even after adjusting for other risk factors. The minimum mortality hazard ratio, based on a particular model, occurred at a DBP reduction of 22.6 mm Hg (standard error = 10.6) in the whole population and 8.5 mm Hg (standard error = 4.6) in the baseline DBP stratum 90-104. After this reduction, there was a small increase in the risk of death. There was not evidence of the quadratic function after fitting the same model using systolic blood pressure. Methodologic issues involved in studying a particular degree of blood pressure reduction were considered. The confidence interval around the change corresponding to the minimum hazard ratio was wide and the obtained blood pressure level should not be interpreted as a goal for treatment. Blood pressure reduction was attributed, not only to pharmacologic therapy, but also to regression to the mean, and to other unknown factors unrelated to treatment. Therefore, the surprising results of this study do not provide direct implications for treatment, but strongly suggest replication in other populations. ^

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

Intracranial EEG reveals a time- and frequency-specific role for the right inferior frontal gyrus and primary motor cortex in stopping initiated responses.

Inappropriate response tendencies may be stopped via a specific fronto/basal ganglia/primary motor cortical network. We sought to characterize the functional role of two regions in this putative stopping network, the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and the primary motor cortex (M1), using electocorticography from subdural electrodes in four patients while they performed a stop-signal task. On each trial, a motor response was initiated, and on a minority of trials a stop signal instructed the patient to try to stop the response. For each patient, there was a greater right IFG response in the beta frequency band ( approximately 16 Hz) for successful versus unsuccessful stop trials. This finding adds to evidence for a functional network for stopping because changes in beta frequency activity have also been observed in the basal ganglia in association with behavioral stopping. In addition, the right IFG response occurred 100-250 ms after the stop signal, a time range consistent with a putative inhibitory control process rather than with stop-signal processing or feedback regarding success. A downstream target of inhibitory control is M1. In each patient, there was alpha/beta band desynchronization in M1 for stop trials. However, the degree of desynchronization in M1 was less for successfully than unsuccessfully stopped trials. This reduced desynchronization on successful stop trials could relate to increased GABA inhibition in M1. Together with other findings, the results suggest that behavioral stopping is implemented via synchronized activity in the beta frequency band in a right IFG/basal ganglia network, with downstream effects on M1.

Adherence to a lifestyle physical activity program: Trends over time and associations with processes of change and physical activity

Research on lifestyle physical activity interventions suggests that they help individuals meet the new recommendations for physical activity made by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM). The purpose of this research was to describe the rates of adherence to two lifestyle physical activity intervention arms and to examine the association between adherence and outcome variables, using data from Project PRIME, a lifestyle physical activity intervention based on the transtheoretical model and conducted by the Cooper Institute of Aerobics Research, Dallas, Texas. Participants were 250 sedentary healthy adults, aged 35 to 70 years, primarily non-Hispanic White, and in the contemplation and preparation stages of readiness to change. They were randomized to a group (PRIME G) or a mail- and telephone-delivered condition (PRIME C). Adherence measures included attending class (PRIME G), completing a monthly telephone call with a health educator (PRIME C), and completing homework assignments and self-monitoring minutes of moderate- to vigorous physical activity (both groups). In the first results paper, adherence over time and between conditions was examined: Attendance in group, completing the monthly telephone call, and homework completion decreased over time, and participants in PRIME G were more likely to complete homework than those in PRIME C. Paper 2 aimed to determine whether the adherence measures predicted achievement of the CDC/ACSM physical activity guideline. In separate models for the two conditions, a latent variable measuring adherence was found to predict achievement of the guideline. Paper 3 examined the association between adherence measures and the transtheoretical model's processes of change within each condition. For both, participants who completed at least two thirds of the homework assignments improved their use of the processes of change more than those who completed less than that amount. These results suggest that encouraging adherence to a lifestyle physical activity intervention, at least among already motivated volunteers, may increase the likelihood of beneficial changes in the outcomes. ^

Metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular mortality among participants of the hypertension detection and follow-up program

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a clustering of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors that includes obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and elevated blood pressure. Applying the criteria for MetS can serve as a clinically feasible tool for identifying patients at high risk for CV morbidity and mortality, particularly those who do not fall into traditional risk categories. The objective of this study was to examine the association between MetS and CV mortality among 10,940 American hypertensive adults, ages 30-69 years, participating in a large randomized controlled trial of hypertension treatment (HDFP 1973-1983). MetS was defined as the presence of hypertension and at least two of the following risk factors: obesity, dyslipidemia, or hyperglycemia. Of the 10,763 individuals with sufficient data available for analysis, 33.2% met criteria for MetS at baseline. The baseline prevalence of MetS was significantly higher among women (46%) than men (22%) and among non-blacks (37%) versus blacks (30%). All-cause and CV mortality was assessed for 10,763 individuals. Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 1,425 deaths were observed. Approximately 53% of these deaths were attributed to CV causes. Compared to individuals without MetS at baseline, those with MetS had higher rates of all-cause mortality (14.5% v. 12.6%) and CV mortality (8.2% versus 6.4%). The unadjusted risk of CV mortality among those with MetS was 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.52) times that for those without MetS at baseline. After multiple adjustment for traditional risk factors of age, race, gender, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and smoking status, individuals with MetS, compared to those without MetS, were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.20-1.67) times more likely to die of CV causes. Of the individual components of MetS, hyperglycemia/diabetes conferred the strongest risk of CV mortality (OR 1.73; 95% CI, 1.39-2.15). Results of the present study suggest MetS defined as the presence of hypertension and 2 additional cardiometabolic risk factors (obesity, dyslipidemia, or hyperglycemia/diabetes) can be used with some success to predict CV mortality in middle-aged hypertensive adults. Ongoing and future prospective studies are vital to examine the association between MetS and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in select high-risk subpopulations, and to continue evaluating the public health impact of aggressive, targeted screening, prevention, and treatment efforts to prevent future cardiovascular disability and death.^

Design and Optimization of Four-dimensional Cone-beam Computed Tomography in Image-guided Radiation Therapy

The influence of respiratory motion on patient anatomy poses a challenge to accurate radiation therapy, especially in lung cancer treatment. Modern radiation therapy planning uses models of tumor respiratory motion to account for target motion in targeting. The tumor motion model can be verified on a per-treatment session basis with four-dimensional cone-beam computed tomography (4D-CBCT), which acquires an image set of the dynamic target throughout the respiratory cycle during the therapy session. 4D-CBCT is undersampled if the scan time is too short. However, short scan time is desirable in clinical practice to reduce patient setup time. This dissertation presents the design and optimization of 4D-CBCT to reduce the impact of undersampling artifacts with short scan times. This work measures the impact of undersampling artifacts on the accuracy of target motion measurement under different sampling conditions and for various object sizes and motions. The results provide a minimum scan time such that the target tracking error is less than a specified tolerance. This work also presents new image reconstruction algorithms for reducing undersampling artifacts in undersampled datasets by taking advantage of the assumption that the relevant motion of interest is contained within a volume-of-interest (VOI). It is shown that the VOI-based reconstruction provides more accurate image intensity than standard reconstruction. The VOI-based reconstruction produced 43% fewer least-squares error inside the VOI and 84% fewer error throughout the image in a study designed to simulate target motion. The VOI-based reconstruction approach can reduce acquisition time and improve image quality in 4D-CBCT.