Environmental and behavioral risk factors for moderate or severe rotavirus diarrhea in children less than 24 months

On a global basis rotaviruses are the most important agents involved in childhood diarrhea. In developing countries they account for 6% of all diarrheas and 20% of all diarrhea related deaths of children under 5 years of age, with over 1 billion episodes and over 4 million deaths annually. Given the disease burden, there is a need for better understanding the risk factors involved in rotavirus disease, to identify areas of intervention. In order to provide this information, two areas were developed: a review of the literature, examining the causal evidence for rotavirus diarrhea and a case comparison study. The case comparison study analyzed two areas: identifying climate factors and, identifying environmental and behavioral risk factors. The literature review showed that few analytical studies have identified specific risk factors such as home environment, and a winter seasonal trend for temperate areas, but in key areas evidence is contradictory. The case comparison study for climate factors demonstrated that seasonality occurs in a tropical country like Venezuela and that a complex interplay between weather conditions contribute to the seasonal pattern. A positive association between rain fall (OR 4.1); dew point (OR 2.3) and temperature differential during the day (OR 1.4) and, an inverse association with temperature (OR 0.5) and relative humidity (OR 0.8) was found. This information is useful in understanding the seasonal pattern of rotavirus and for planning health care needs. The second analysis demonstrated that environmental variables such as crowding (OR 14.3), contact with someone with an infectious disease (OR 4.9) and animal ownership (OR 2.3) were important. Restricting the analysis to animal owners demonstrated that living In a rural settling (OR 13.8), defecating in inappropriate places (OR 7.2), crowding(4.2) and indoor animals (4.0) are of importance. Behavioral variables identified were: lack of breast feeding (OR 4.0) and visiting when someone was sick (OR 3.4). Biological and demographic variables of importance were: age, with a dose response relationship; undernurishment (OR 11.3) and household per capita monthly income less than US $ 16.30 (OR 8.5). Using a diarrhea compeer group we found that, although some of the previous variables were of importance, no major differences were found. These findings are important in identifying paths for prevention and further research. ^

Design, synthesis and biological evaluation of 5$\sp\prime$-mononucleotide prodrugs: Strategies to introduce nucleotides into cells

The neutral bis ((pivaloyloxy)methyl) (PIV$\sb2\rbrack$ derivatives of FdUMP, ddUMP, and AZTMP were synthesized as potential membrane-permeable prodrugs of FdUMP, ddUMP, and AZTMP. These compounds were designed to enter cells by passive diffusion and revert to the parent nucleotides after removal of the PIV groups by hydrolytic enzymes. These prodrugs were prepared by condensation of FUdR, ddU, and AZT with PIV$\sb2$ phosphate in the presence of triphenylphosphine and diethyl azodicarboxylate (the Mitsunobo reagent). PIV$\sb2$-FdUMP, PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP, and PIV$\sb2$-AZTMP were stable in the pH range 1.0-4.0 (t$\sb{1/2} = {>}$100 h). They were also fairly stable at pH 7.4 (t$\sb{1/2} = {>}$40 h). In 0.05 M NaOH solution, however, they were rapidly degraded (t$\sb{1/2} < 2$ min). In the presence hog liver carboxylate esterase, they were converted quantitatively to the corresponding phosphodiesters, PIV$\sb1$-FdUMP, PIV$\sb1$-ddUMP, and PIV$\sb1$-AZTMP; after 24 h incubation, only trace amounts of FdUMP, ddUMP, and AZTMP (1-5%) were observed indicating that the PIV$\sb1$ compounds were poor substrates for the enzyme. In human plasma, the PIV$\sb2$ compounds were rapidly degraded with half-lives of less than 5 min. The rate of degradation of the PIV$\sb2$ compounds in the presence of phosphodiesterase I was the same as that in buffer controls, indicating that they were not substrates for this enzyme. In the presence of phosphodiesterase I, PIV$\sb1$-FdUMP, PIV$\sb1$-ddUMP, and PIV$\sb1$-AZTMP were converted quantitatively to FdUMP, ddUMP, and AZTMP.^ PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP and PIV$\sb2$-AZTMP were effective at controlling HIV type 1 infection in MT-4 and CEM tk$\sp-$ cells in culture. Mechanistic studies demonstrated that PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP and PIV$\sb2$-AZTMP were taken up by the cells and converted to ddUTP and AZTTP, both potent inhibitors of HIV reverse transcriptase. However, a potential shortcoming of PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP and PIV$\sb2$-AZTMP as clinical therapeutic agents is that they are rapidly degraded (t$\sb{1/2}$ = approx. 4 minutes) in human plasma by carboxylate esterases. To circumvent this limitation, chemically-labile nucleotide prodrugs and liposome-encapsulated nucleotide prodrugs were investigated. In the former approach, the protective groups bis(N, N-(dimethyl)carbamoyloxymethyl) (DM$\sb2$) and bis (N-(piperidino)carbamoyloxymethyl) (DP$\sb2$) were used to synthesize DM$\sb2$-ddUMP and DP$\sb2$-ddUMP, respectively. In aqueous buffers (pH range 1.0-9.0) these compounds were degraded with half-lives of 3 to 4 h. They had similar half-lives in human plasma demonstrating that they were resistant to esterase-mediated cleavage. However, neither compound gave rise to significant concentrations of ddUMP in CEM or CEM tk$\sp-$ cells. In the liposome-encapsulated nucleotide prodrug approach, three different liposomal formulations of PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP (L-PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP) were investigated. The half-lifes of these L-PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP preparations in human plasma were 2 h compared with 4 min for the free drug. The preparations were more effective at controlling HIV-1 infection than free PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP in human T cells in culture. Collectively, these data indicate that PIV$\sb2$-FdUMP, PIV$\sb2$-ddUMP, and PIV$\sb2$-AZTMP are effective membrane-permeable prodrugs of FdUMP, ddUMP, and AZTMP. ^

The epidemiology of dengue among children less than 18 months of age in Puerto Rico, 1999--2011

Between 1999 and 2011, 4,178 suspected dengue cases in children less than 18 months of age were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dengue Branch in Puerto Rico. Of the 4,178, 813 were determined to be laboratory-positive and 737 laboratory-negative. Those remaining were either laboratory-indeterminate, not processed or positive for Leptospira . On average, 63 laboratory-positive cases were reported per year. Laboratory-positive cases had a median age of 8.5 months. Among these cases, the median age for those with dengue fever was 8.7 months and 7.9 months for dengue hemorrhagic fever. Clinical signs and symptoms indicative of dengue were greatest among laboratory-positive cases and included fever, rash, thrombocytopenia, bleeding manifestations, and petechiae. The most common symptoms among patients who were laboratory-negative were fever, nasal congestion, cough, diarrhea, and vomiting. Using the 1997 WHO guidelines, nearly 50% of the laboratory-positive cases met the case definition for dengue fever, and 61 of these were further determined to meet the case definition for dengue hemorrhagic fever. In comparison, 15% of laboratory-negative cases met the case definition for dengue fever and less than 1% for dengue hemorrhagic fever. None of the laboratory-positive or laboratory-negative cases met the criteria for dengue shock syndrome.^

THE ROLE OF RECEPTOR TYROSINE KINASE AXL IN PANCREATIC DUCTAL ADENOCARCINOMA AND ITS REGULATION BY HEMATOPOIETIC PROGENITOR KINASE 1

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) is one of the most aggressive malignancies with less than 5% of five year survival rate. New molecular markers and new therapeutic targets are urgently needed for patients with PDA. Oncogenic receptor tyrosine kinase Axl has been reported to be overexpressed in many types of human malignancies, including diffuse glioma, melanoma, osteosarcoma, and carcinomas of lung, colon, prostate, breast, ovary, esophagus, stomach, and kidney. However, the expression and functions of Axl in PDA are unclear. We hypothesized that Axl contributes to the development and progression of PDA. We examined Axl expression in 54 human PDA samples and their paired benign pancreatic tissue by immunohistochemistry, we found that Axl was overexpressed in 70% of stage II PDAs, but only 22% of benign ducts (P=0.0001). Axl overexpression was associated with higher frequencies of distant metastasis and was an independent prognostic factor for both poor overall and recurrence-free survivals in patients with stage II PDA (p = 0.03 and 0.04). Axl silencing by shRNA in pancreatic cancer cell lines, panc-28 and Panc-1, decreased tumor cell migration and invasion and sensitized PDA cells to apoptosis stimuli such as γ-irradiation and serum starvation. In addition, we found that Axl-mediated Akt and NF-κB activation and up regulation of MMP2 were involved in the invasion, migration and survival of PDA cells. Thus, we demonstrate that Axl plays an important role in the development and progression of PDA. Targeting Axl signaling pathway may represent a new approach for the treatment of PDA. To understand the molecular mechanisms of Axl overexpression in PDA, we found that Axl expression was down-regulated by hematopoietic progenitor kinase 1 (HPK1), a newly identified tumor suppressor in PDA. HPK1 is lost in over 95% of PDAs. Restoration of HPK1 in PDA cells down-regulated Axl expression. HPK1-mediated Axl degradation was inhibited by leupeptin, baflomycin A1, and monensin, suggesting that HPK1-mediated Axl degradation was through endocytosis-lysosome pathway. HPK1 interacted with and phosphorylated dynamin, a critical component of endocytosis pathway. Overexpression of dominant negative form of dynamin blocked the HPK1-mediated Axl degradation. Therefore we concluded that HPK1-mediated Axl degradation was through endocytosis-lysosome pathway and loss of HPK1 expression may contribute to Axl overexpression in PDAs.

CLINICAL TRIAL ENROLLMENT IN A MULTIDISCIPLINARY PROSTATE CANCER

Purpose: Clinical oncology trials are hampered by low accrual rates. Less than 5% of adult cancer patients are treated on a clinical trial. We aimed to evaluate clinical trial enrollment in our Multidisciplinary Prostate Cancer Clinic and to assess if a clinical trial initiative, introduced in 2006, increased our trial enrollment.Methods: Prostate cancer patients with non-metastatic disease who were seen in the clinic from 2004 to 2008 were included in the analysis. Men were categorized by whether they were seen before or after the clinical trial enrollment initiative started in 2006. The initiative included posting trial details in the clinic, educating patients about appropriate clinical trial options during the treatment recommendation discussion, and providing patients with documentation of trials offered to them. Univariate and multivariate (MVA) logistic regression analysis evaluated the impact of patient characteristics and the clinical trial initiative on clinical trial enrollment.Results: The majority of the 1,370 men were white (83%), and lived within the surrounding counties or state (69.4%). Median age was 64.2 years. Seventy-three point five percent enrolled in at least one trial and 28.5% enrolled in more than one trial. Sixty-seven percent enrolled in laboratory studies, 18% quality of life studies, 13% novel studies, and 3.7% procedural studies. On MVA, men seen in later years (p < 0.0001) were more likely to enroll in trials. The proportion of men enrolling increased from 38.9% to 84.3% (p<0.0001) after the clinical trial initiative. On MVA, older men (p < 0.0001) were less likely to enroll in clinical trials. There was a trend toward men in the high-risk group being more likely to participate in clinical trials (p = 0.056). There was a second trend for men of Hispanic, Asian, Native American and Indian decent being less likely to participate in clinical trials (p = 0.054).Conclusion: Clinical trial enrollment in the multidisciplinary clinic increased after introduction of a clinical trial initiative. Older men were less likely to enroll in trials. We speculate we achieved high enrollment rates because 1) specific trials are discussed at time of treatment recommendations, 2) we provide a letter documenting offered trials and 3) we introduce patients to the research team at the same clinic visit if they are interested in trial participation.

Exploration of genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer: A GWAS approach

Pancreatic cancer is the 4th most common cause for cancer death in the United States, accompanied by less than 5% five-year survival rate based on current treatments, particularly because it is usually detected at a late stage. Identifying a high-risk population to launch an effective preventive strategy and intervention to control this highly lethal disease is desperately needed. The genetic etiology of pancreatic cancer has not been well profiled. We hypothesized that unidentified genetic variants by previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) for pancreatic cancer, due to stringent statistical threshold or missing interaction analysis, may be unveiled using alternative approaches. To achieve this aim, we explored genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer in terms of marginal associations of pathway and genes, as well as their interactions with risk factors. We conducted pathway- and gene-based analysis using GWAS data from 3141 pancreatic cancer patients and 3367 controls with European ancestry. Using the gene set ridge regression in association studies (GRASS) method, we analyzed 197 pathways from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database. Using the logistic kernel machine (LKM) test, we analyzed 17906 genes defined by University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) database. Using the likelihood ratio test (LRT) in a logistic regression model, we analyzed 177 pathways and 17906 genes for interactions with risk factors in 2028 pancreatic cancer patients and 2109 controls with European ancestry. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, six pathways were marginally associated with risk of pancreatic cancer ( P < 0.00025): Fc epsilon RI signaling, maturity onset diabetes of the young, neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, long-term depression (Ps < 0.0002), and the olfactory transduction and vascular smooth muscle contraction pathways (P = 0.0002; Nine genes were marginally associated with pancreatic cancer risk (P < 2.62 × 10−5), including five reported genes (ABO, HNF1A, CLPTM1L, SHH and MYC), as well as four novel genes (OR13C4, OR 13C3, KCNA6 and HNF4 G); three pathways significantly interacted with risk factors on modifying the risk of pancreatic cancer (P < 2.82 × 10−4): chemokine signaling pathway with obesity ( P < 1.43 × 10−4), calcium signaling pathway (P < 2.27 × 10−4) and MAPK signaling pathway with diabetes (P < 2.77 × 10−4). However, none of the 17906 genes tested for interactions survived the multiple comparisons corrections. In summary, our current GWAS study unveiled unidentified genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer using alternative methods. These novel findings provide new perspectives on genetic susceptibility to and molecular mechanisms of pancreatic cancer, once confirmed, will shed promising light on the prevention and treatment of this disease. ^

Energy expenditure, body-part discomfort and mental work load among nurses

The purpose of this prospective observational field study was to present a model for measuring energy expenditure among nurses and to determine if there was a difference between the energy expenditure of nurses providing direct care to adult patients on general medical-surgical units in two major metropolitan hospitals and a recommended energy expenditure of 3.0 kcal/minute over 8 hours. One-third of the predicted cycle ergometer VO2max for the study population was used to calculate the recommended energy expenditure.^ Two methods were used to measure energy expenditure among participants during an 8 hour day shift. First, the Energy Expenditure Prediction Program (EEPP) developed by the University of Michigan Center for Ergonomics was used to calculate energy expenditure using activity recordings from observation (OEE; n = 39). The second method used ambulatory electrocardiography and the heart rate-oxygen consumption relationship (HREE; n = 20) to measure energy expenditure. It was concluded that energy expenditure among nurses can be estimated using the EEPP. Using classification systems from previous research, work load among the study population was categorized as "moderate" but was significantly less than (p = 0.021) 3.0 kcal/minute over 8 hours or 1/3 of the predicted VO2max.^ In addition, the relationships between OEE, body-part discomfort (BPCDS) and mental work load (MWI) were evaluated. The relationships between OEE/BPCDS and OEE/MWI were not significant (p = 0.062 and 0.091, respectively). Among the study population, body-part discomfort significantly increased for upper arms, mid-back, lower-back, legs and feet by mid-shift and by the end of the shift, the increase was also significant for neck and thighs.^ The study also provided documentation of a comprehensive list of nursing activities. Among the most important findings were the facts that the study population spent 23% of the workday in a bent posture, walked an average of 3.14 miles, and spent two-thirds of the shift doing activities other than direct patient care, such as paperwork and communicating with other departments. A discussion is provided regarding the ergonomic implications of these findings. ^

Development and testing of a procedure for systematically assigning gestational age for clinical and research use

A graphing method was developed and tested to estimate gestational ages pre-and postnatally in a consistent manner for epidemiological research and clinical purposes on feti/infants of women with few consistent prenatal estimators of gestational age. Each patient's available data was plotted on a single page graph to give a comprehensive overview of that patient. A hierarchical classification of gestational age determination was then applied in a systematic manner, and reasonable gestational age estimates were produced. The method was tested for validity and reliability on 50 women who had known dates for their last menstrual period or dates of conception, and multiple ultrasound examinations and other gestational age estimating measures. The feasibility of the procedure was then tested on 1223 low income women with few gestational age estimators. The graphing method proved to have high inter- and intrarater reliability. It was quick, easy to use, inexpensive, and did not require special equipment. The graphing method estimate of gestational age for each infant was tested against the last menstrual period gestational age estimate using paired t-Tests, F tests and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of similar populations, producing a 98 percent probability or better that the means and data populations were the same. Less than 5 percent of the infants' gestational ages were misclassified using the graphing method, much lower than the amount of misclassification produced by ultrasound or neonatal examination estimates. ^

A space-time analysis of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis cases in Texas from 2000 to 2004

Background. The purpose of this study was to describe the risk factors and demographics of persons with salmonellosis and shigellosis and to investigate both seasonal and spatial variations in the occurrence of these infections in Texas from 2000 to 2004, utilizing time series analyses and the geographic information system digital mapping methods. ^ Methods. Spatial Analysis: MapInfo software was used to map the distribution of age-adjusted rates of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis in Texas from 2000–2004 by zip codes. Census data on above or below poverty level, household income, highest level of educational attainment, race, ethnicity, and urban/rural community status was obtained from the 2000 Decennial Census for each zip code. The zip codes with the upper 10% and lower 10% were compared using t-tests and logistic regression to determine whether there were any potential risk factors. ^ Temporal analysis. Seasonal patterns in the prevalence of infections in Texas from 2000 to 2003 were determined by performing time-series analysis on the numbers of cases of salmonellosis and shigellosis. A linear regression was also performed to assess for trends in the incidence of each disease, along with auto-correlation and multi-component cosinor analysis. ^ Results. Spatial analysis: Analysis by general linear model showed a significant association between infection rates and age, with young children aged less than 5 and those aged 5–9 years having increased risk of infection for both disease conditions. The data demonstrated that those populations with high percentages of people who attained a higher than high school education were less likely to be represented in zip codes with high rates of shigellosis. However, for salmonellosis, logistic regression models indicated that when compared to populations with high percentages of non-high school graduates, having a high school diploma or equivalent increased the odds of having a high rate of infection. ^ Temporal analysis. For shigellosis, multi-component cosinor analyses were used to determine the approximated cosine curve which represented a statistically significant representation of the time series data for all age groups by sex. The shigellosis results show 2 peaks, with a major peak occurring in June and a secondary peak appearing around October. Salmonellosis results showed a single peak and trough in all age groups with the peak occurring in August and the trough occurring in February. ^ Conclusion. The results from this study can be used by public health agencies to determine the timing of public health awareness programs and interventions in order to prevent salmonellosis and shigellosis from occurring. Because young children depend on adults for their meals, it is important to increase the awareness of day-care workers and new parents about modes of transmission and hygienic methods of food preparation and storage. ^

Glioma-specific alternative RNA splicing: A role for polypyrimidine tract binding protein-1

Alternative RNA splicing plays an integral role in cell fate determination and function, especially in the cells of the brain. Errors in RNA processing contribute to diseases such as cancer, where it leads to the production of oncogenic proteins or the loss of tumor suppressors. In silica mining suggests that hundreds of splice isoforms are misexpressed in the glial cell-derived glioma. However, there is little experimental evidence of the prevalence and contribution of these changes and whether they contribute to the formation and progression of this devastating malignancy. To determine the frequency of these aberrant events, global profiling of alternative RNA splice patterns in glioma and nontumor brain was conducted using an exon array. Most splicing changes were less than 5-fold in magnitude and 14 cassette exon events were validated, including 7 previously published events. To determine the possible causes of missplicing, the differential expression levels of splicing factors in these two tissues were also analyzed. Six RNA splicing factors had greater than 2-fold changes in expression. The highest differentially expressed factor was polypyrimidine tract binding protein-1 (PTB). Evaluation by immunohistochemistry determined that this factor was elevated in both early and late stages of glioma. Glial cell-specific PTB expression in the adult brain led me to examine the role of PTB in gliomagenesis. Downregulation of PTB slowed glioma cell proliferation and migration and enhanced cell adhesion to fibronectin and vitronectin. To determine whether PTB was affecting these processes through splicing, genome-wide exon expression levels were correlated with PTB levels. Surprisingly, previously reported PTB target transcripts were insensitive to changes in PTB levels in both patient samples and PTB-depleted glioma cells. Only one validated glioma-specific splice target, RTN4/Nogo, had a significant PTB-mediated splicing change. Downregulation of PTB enhanced inclusion of its alternative exon 3, which encodes an auxiliary domain within a neurite inhibitor protein. Overexpression of this splice isoform in glioma cells slowed proliferation in a manner similar to that observed in PTB knockdown cells. In summary, aberrant expression of splicing factors such as PTB in glioma may elicit changes in splicing patterns that enhance tumorigenesis. ^

Evaluation of association between childhood obesity and depression: A systematic literature review

Obesity has become a major public health concern throughout the world. Both developing as well as developed countries have been facing the consequences of obesity. [1, 2] According to World Health Organization, worldwide prevalence of overweight among adults was 1.6 billion and that of obesity was 400 million by the end of year 2005. At the same time, around 20 million children of less than 5 years of age were overweight worldwide. [3] ^ From amongst the obese children, around 15% of children manifest symptoms of depression before 18 years of age as compared to non-obese children of the same age group. Approximately 3-5% of these obese individuals develop major depressive disorders (MDD). [4, 5] The incidence of depression increases markedly as the child reaches puberty. The risk of persistent depression in childhood as well as in adulthood is two to four times higher if the child is obese as compared to those depressed adult individuals who are not obese in their childhood. [6, 7] ^ This paper will review the scientific literature concerning the association between childhood obesity and depression. ^

A costing exercise of provision of prevention of HIV transmission from mother to child services in Vietnam

Objectives. This dissertation focuses on estimating the cost of providing a minimum package of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) in Vietnam from a societal perspective and discussing the issues of scaling-up the minimum package nationwide. ^ Methods. Through collection of cost-related data of PMTCT services at 22 PMTCT sites in 5 provinces (Hanoi, Quang Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Hochiminh City, and An Giang) in Vietnam, the research investigates the item cost of each service in minimum PMTCT packages and the actual cost per PMTCT site at different organizational levels including central, provincial, and district. Next, the actual cost per site at each organizational level is standardized by adjusting for HIV prevalence rate to arrive at standardized costs per site. This study then uses the standardized costs per site to project, by different scenarios, the total cost to scale-up the PMTCT program in Vietnam. ^ Results. The cost for HIV tests, infant formula, and salary of health workers are consistently found to be the biggest expenditures in the PMTCT minimum package program across all organizational levels. Annual cost for drugs for prophylaxis treatment, operating and capital, and training costs are not substantial (less than 5% of total costs at all levels). The actual annual estimated cost for a PMTCT site at the central level is nearly VND 1.9 billion or US$ 107,650 (exchange rate US$ 1 = VND 17,500) while the annual cost for a provincial site is VND 375 million or US$ 21,400. The annual cost for a district site is VND 139 million (∼US$ 8,000). ^ The estimated total annual cost to roll out the PMTCT minimum package to the 5 studied provinces is approximately US$ 1.1 million. If the PMTCT program is to be scaled-up to 14 provinces until 2008 and up to 40 provinces through the end of 2010 as planned by the Ministry of Health, it would cost the health system an approximate annual amount of US$ 2.1 million and US$ 5.04 million, respectively. The annual cost for scaling-up the PMTCT minimum package nationwide is around US$ 7.6 million. Meanwhile, the total annual cost to implement PMTCT minimum packages to achieve PMTCT national targets in 2010 (providing counseling service to 90% of all pregnant women; 60% of them will receive HIV tests and 100% of HIV (+) mother and their newborn will receive prophylaxis treatment) would be US$ 6.1 million. ^ Recommendations. This study recommends: (1) the Ministry of Health of Vietnam should adjust its short-term national targets to a more feasible and achievable level given the current level of available resources; (2) a detailed budget for scaling-up the PMTCT program should be developed together with the national PMTCT action plan; (3) the PMTCT scaling-up plan developed by the Ministry of Health should focus on coverage of high prevalence population and quality of services provided rather than number of physical provinces reached; (4) exclusive breastfeeding strategy should be promoted as part of the PMTCT program; and (5) for a smooth and effective rolling out of PMTCT services nationwide, development of a national training plan and execution of this plan must precede any other initiations of the PMTCT scaling-up plan. ^

A case-comparison interview study of brain tumors and employment in occupations with presumed electric and magnetic field exposures

Results from epidemiologic studies suggest that persons working in occupations with presumed electric and magnetic field (EMF) exposures are at increased risk of brain cancer. This study utilized data from a completed, population-based, interview case-control study of central nervous system (CNS) tumors and employment in the petrochemical industry to test the hypothesis that employment in EMF-related occupations increases CNS tumor risk. A total of 375 male residents of the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast Area, age 20 to 79, with primary neuroglial CNS tumors diagnosed during the period 1980-84 were identified. A population-based comparison group of 450 age, race and geographically matched males was selected. Occupational histories and potential risk factor data were collected via personal interviews with study subjects or their next-of-kin.^ Adjusted odds ratios were less than 1.0 for persons ever employed in an electrical occupation (OR = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.40-1.09) or whose usual occupation was electrical (OR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.33-1.73). Relative risk estimates did not increase significantly as time since first employment or duration of employment increased. Examination of CNS tumor risk by high (OR = 0.80), medium (OR = 0.88) and low (OR = 0.45) exposure categories for persons whose usual occupation was electrical did not indicate a dose-response pattern. In addition, the mean age of exposed cases was not significantly younger than that for unexposed cases. Analysis of risk by probability of exposure to EMFs showed non-significant elevations in the adjusted odds ratio for definite exposed workers defined by their usual occupation (OR = 1.78; 95% CI = 0.70-4.51) and ever/never employed status (OR = 1.54; 95% CI = 0.17-4.91).^ These findings suggest that employment in occupations with presumed EMF exposures does not increase CNS tumor risk as was suggested by previous investigations. The results of this study also do not support the EMF-tumor promotion hypothesis. ^

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.