Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Joint effects of pulmonary function and aerobic power on survival in a cohort of healthy adults

Objective measurements of physical fitness and pulmonary function are related individually to long-term survival, both in healthy people and in those who are ill. These factors are furthermore known to be related to one another physiologically in people with pulmonary disease, because advanced pulmonary disease causes ventilatory limitation to exercise. Healthy people do not have ventilatory limitation to exercise, but rather have ventilatory reserve. The relationship between pulmonary function and exercise performance in healthy people is minimal. Exercise performance has been shown to modify the effect of pulmonary function on mortality in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but the relationship between these factors in healthy people has not been studied and is not known. The purpose of this study is to quantify the joint effects of pulmonary function and exercise performance as these bear on mortality in a cohort of healthy adults. This investigation is an historical cohort study over 20 years of follow-up of 29,624 adults who had complete preventive medicine, spirometry and treadmill stress examinations at the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, Texas.^ In 20 years of follow-up, there were 738 evaluable deaths. Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV$\sb1$) percent of predicted, treadmill time in minutes percent of predicted, age, gender, body mass index, baseline smoking status, serum glucose and serum total cholesterol were all significant, independent predictors of mortality risk. There were no frank interactions, although age had an important increasing effect on the risk associated with smoking when other covariates were controlled for in a proportional-hazards model. There was no confounding effect of exercise performance on pulmonary function. In agreement with the pertinent literature on independent effects, each unit increase in FEV$\sb1$ percent predicted was associated with about eight tenths of a percent reduction in adjusted mortality rate. The concept of physiologic reserve is useful in interpretation of the findings. Since pulmonary function does not limit exercise tolerance in healthy adults, it is reasonable to expect that exercise tolerance would not modify the effect of pulmonary function on mortality. Epidemiologic techniques are useful for elucidating physiological correlates of mortality risk. ^

Mixture modeling for joint analysis of survival, discrete, and continuous data

Mixture modeling is commonly used to model categorical latent variables that represent subpopulations in which population membership is unknown but can be inferred from the data. In relatively recent years, the potential of finite mixture models has been applied in time-to-event data. However, the commonly used survival mixture model assumes that the effects of the covariates involved in failure times differ across latent classes, but the covariate distribution is homogeneous. The aim of this dissertation is to develop a method to examine time-to-event data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity under a framework of mixture modeling. A joint model is developed to incorporate the latent survival trajectory along with the observed information for the joint analysis of a time-to-event variable, its discrete and continuous covariates, and a latent class variable. It is assumed that the effects of covariates on survival times and the distribution of covariates vary across different latent classes. The unobservable survival trajectories are identified through estimating the probability that a subject belongs to a particular class based on observed information. We applied this method to a Hodgkin lymphoma study with long-term follow-up and observed four distinct latent classes in terms of long-term survival and distributions of prognostic factors. Our results from simulation studies and from the Hodgkin lymphoma study demonstrated the superiority of our joint model compared with the conventional survival model. This flexible inference method provides more accurate estimation and accommodates unobservable heterogeneity among individuals while taking involved interactions between covariates into consideration.^

Polymorphisms of the DNA repair gene MGMT and risk and progression of head and neck cancer.

Methylating agents are involved in carcinogenesis, and the DNA repair protein O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) removes methyl group from O(6)-methylguanine. Genetic variation in DNA repair genes has been shown to contribute to susceptibility to squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). We hypothesize that MGMT polymorphisms are associated with risk of SCCHN. In a hospital-based case-control study of 721 patients with SCCHN and 1234 cancer-free controls frequency-matched by age, sex and ethnicity, we genotyped four MGMT polymorphisms, two in exon 3, 16195C>T and 16286C>T and two in the promoter region, 45996G>T and 46346C>A. We found that none of these polymorphisms alone had a significant effect on risk of SCCHN. However, when these four polymorphisms were evaluated together by the number of putative risk genotypes (i.e. 16195CC, 16286CC, 45996GT+TT, and 46346CA+AA), a statistically significantly increased risk of SCCHN was associated with the combined genotypes with three to four risk genotypes, compared with those with zero to two risk genotypes (adjusted odds ratio (OR)=1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.05-1.53). This increased risk was also more pronounced among young subjects (OR=1.81; 95% CI=1.11-2.96), men (OR=1.24; 95% CI=1.00-1.55), ever smokers (OR=1.25; 95%=1.01-1.56), ever drinkers (OR=1.29; 95% CI=1.04-1.60), patients with oropharyngeal cancer (OR=1.45; 95% CI=1.12-1.87), and oropharyngeal cancer with regional lymph node metastasis (OR=1.52; 95% CI=1.16-1.89). In conclusion, our results suggest that any one of MGMT variants may not have a substantial effect on SCCHN risk, but a joint effect of several MGMT variants may contribute to risk and progression of SCCHN, particularly for oropharyngeal cancer, in non-Hispanic whites.

Modular organization of the cortical connections linking visual areas V1, V2 and V4 in Macaque monkeys

The macaque cortical visual system is hierarchically organized into two streams, the ventral stream for recognizing objects and the dorsal stream for analyzing spatial relationships. The ventral stream extends from striate cortex or area V1 to inferior temporal cortex (IT) through extra-striate areas V2 and V4. Between V1 and V2, the ventral stream consists of two roughly parallel sub-streams, one extending from the cytochrome oxidase (CO) rich blobs in V1 to the CO rich thin stripes in V2, the other extending from the interblobs in V1 to interstripes, in V2. The blob-dominated sub-stream is thought to analyze the surface features such as color, whereas the interblob-dominated one is thought to analyze the contour features such as shape. ^ In the current study, the organization of cortical pathways linking V2 thin stripe and interstripe compartments with area V4 was investigated using a combination of physiological and anatomical techniques. Different compartments of V2 were first characterized, in vivo, using optical recording of intrinsic cortical signals. These functionally derived maps of V2 stripe compartments were then used to guide iontophoretic injections of multiple, distinguishable, anterograde tracers into specific V2 compartments. The distribution of labeled axons was analyzed either in horizontal sections through the prelunate gyrus, or in tangentially sectioned portions of physically unfolded cortex containing the lunate sulcus, prelunate gyrus and superior temporal sulcus. When a V2 thin stripe and adjacent interstripe were injected with distinguishable tracers, a large primary and several secondary foci were observed in V4. The primary focus from the thin stripe injection was spatially segregated from the primary focus from the V2 interstripe injection, suggesting a retention of the pattern of compartmentation. ^ We examined the distribution of retrogradely labeled cells in V1 following the injections of tracers into V2 different compartments, in order to quantitate just how parallel the two sub-streams are from V1 to V2. Our results suggest that both blobs and interblobs project to thin stripes in V2, whereas only interblobs project to interstripes. This asymmetrical segregation argues against the original proposal of strict parallelism. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Primary lung cancer after breast cancer: The role of radiation therapy and cigarette smoking

The magnitude of the interaction between cigarette smoking, radiation therapy, and primary lung cancer after breast cancer remains unresolved. This case control study further examines the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation therapy (XRT) among breast cancer patients who subsequently developed primary lung cancer, at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) in Houston, Texas. Cases (n = 280) were women diagnosed with primary lung cancer between 1955 and 1970, between 30–89 years of age, who had a prior history of breast cancer, and were U.S. residents. Controls (n = 300) were randomly selected from 37,000 breast cancer patients at MDACC and frequency matched to cases on age at diagnosis (in 5-year strata), ethnicity, year of breast cancer diagnosis (in 5-year strata), and had survived at least as long as the time interval for lung cancer diagnosis in the cases. Stratified analysis and unconditional logistic regression modeling were used to calculate the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation treatment on lung cancer risk. Medical record review yielded smoking information on 93% of cases and 84% of controls, and among cases 45% received XRT versus 44% of controls. Smoking increased the odds of lung cancer in women who did not receive XRT (OR = 6.0, 95%CI, 3.5–10.1) whereas XRT was not associated with increased odds (OR = 0.5, 95%CI, 0.2–1.1) in women who did not smoke. Overall the odds ratio for both XRT and smoking together compared with neither exposure was 9.00 (9 5% CI, 5.1–15.9). Similarly, when stratifying on laterality of the lung cancer in relation to the breast cancer, and when the time interval between breast and lung cancers was >10 years, there was an increased odds for both smoking and XRT together for lung cancers on the same side as the breast cancer (ipsilateral) (OR = 11.5, 95% CI, 4.9–27.8) and lung cancers on the opposite side of the breast cancer (contralateral) (OR= 9.6, 95% CI, 2.9–0.9). After 20 years the odds for the ipsilateral lung were even more pronounced (OR = 19.2, 95% CI, 4.2–88.4) compared to the contralateral lung (OR = 2.6, 95% CI, 0.2–2.1). In conclusion, smoking was a significant independent risk factor for lung cancer after breast cancer. Moreover, a greater than multiplicative effect was observed with smoking and XRT combined being especially evident after 10 years for both the ipsilateral and contralateral lung and after 20 years for the ipsilateral lung. ^

Bioterrorism preparedness at a hospital level in the Southwest Region of the United States -- A systematic review

Since the tragic events of September, 11 2001 the United States bioterrorism and disaster preparedness has made significant progress; yet, numerous research studies of nationwide hospital emergency response have found alarming shortcomings in surge capacity and training level of health care personnel in responding to bioterrorism incidents. The primary goals of this research were to assess hospital preparedness towards the threat of bioterrorist agents in the Southwest Region of the United States and provide recommendations for its improvement. Since little formal research has been published on the hospital preparedness of Oklahoma, Arizona, Texas and New Mexico, this research study specifically focused on the measurable factors affecting the respective states' resources and level of preparedness, such as funding, surge capacity and preparedness certification status.^ Over 300 citations of peer-reviewed articles and 17 Web sites were reviewed, of which 57 reports met inclusion criteria. The results of the systematic review highlighted key gaps in the existing literature and the key targets for future research, as well as identified strengths and weaknesses of the hospital preparedness in the Southwest states compared to the national average. ^ Based on the conducted research, currently, the Southwest states hospital systems are unable fully meet presidential preparedness mandates for emergency and disaster care: the staffed beds to 1,000 population value fluctuated around 1,5 across the states; funding for the hospital preparedness lags behind hospital costs by millions of dollars; and public health-hospital partnership in bioterrorism preparedness is quite weak as evident in lack of joint exercises and training. However, significant steps towards it are being made, including on-going hospital preparedness certification by the Joint Commission of Health Organization. Variations in preparedness levels among states signify that geographic location might determine a hospital level of bioterrorism preparedness as well, tending to favor bigger states such as Texas.^ Suggested recommendations on improvement of the hospital bioterrorism preparedness are consistent with the existing literature and include establishment and maintenance of solid partnerships between hospitals and public health agencies, conduction of joint exercises and drills for the health care personnel and key partners, improved state and federal funding specific to bioterrorism preparedness objectives, as well as on-going training of the clinical personnel on recognition of the bioterrorism agents.^

A GENETIC MARKER STUDY OF NON - INSULIN DEPENDENT DIABETICS IN THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY FROM STARR COUNTY, TEXAS (PLASMA GLUCOSE, HEMOGLOBIN ANALYSIS)

Diabetes mellitus occurs in two forms, insulin-dependent (IDDM, formerly called juvenile type) and non-insulin dependent (NIDDM, formerly called adult type). Prevalence figures from around the world for NIDDM, show that all societies and all races are affected; although uncommon in some populations (.4%), it is common (10%) or very common (40%) in others (Tables 1 and 2).^ In Mexican-Americans in particular, the prevalence rates (7-10%) are intermediate to those in Caucasians (1-2%) and Amerindians (35%). Information about the distribution of the disease and identification of high risk groups for developing glucose intolerance or its vascular manifestations by the study of genetic markers will help to clarify and solve some of the problems from the public health and the genetic point of view.^ This research was designed to examine two general areas in relation to NIDDM. The first aims to determine the prevalence of polymorphic genetic markers in two groups distinguished by the presence or absence of diabetes and to observe if there are any genetic marker-disease association (univariate analysis using two by two tables and logistic regression to study the individual and joint effects of the different variables). The second deals with the effect of genetic differences on the variation in fasting plasma glucose and percent glycosylated hemoglobin (HbAl) (analysis of Covariance for each marker, using age and sex as covariates).^ The results from the first analysis were not statistically significant at the corrected p value of 0.003 given the number of tests that were performed. From the analysis of covariance of all the markers studied, only Duffy and Phosphoglucomutase were statistically significant but poor predictors, given that the amount they explain in terms of variation in glycosylated hemoglobin is very small.^ Trying to determine the polygenic component of chronic disease is not an easy task. This study confirms the fact that a larger and random or representative sample is needed to be able to detect differences in the prevalence of a marker for association studies and in the genetic contribution to the variation in glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin. The importance that ethnic homogeneity in the groups studied and standardization in the methodology will have on the results has been stressed. ^