Modified 3+3 design for phase I clinical trials

Phase I clinical trial is mainly designed to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of a new drug. Optimization of phase I trial design is crucial to minimize the number of enrolled patients exposed to unsafe dose levels and to provide reliable information to the later phases of clinical trials. Although it has been criticized about its inefficient MTD estimation, nowadays the traditional 3+3 method remains dominant in practice due to its simplicity and conservative estimation. There are many new designs that have been proven to generate more credible MTD estimation, such as the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM). Despite its accepted better performance, the CRM design is still not widely used in real trials. There are several factors that contribute to the difficulties of CRM adaption in practice. First, CRM is not widely accepted by the regulatory agencies such as FDA in terms of safety. It is considered to be less conservative and tend to expose more patients above the MTD level than the traditional design. Second, CRM is relatively complex and not intuitive for the clinicians to fully understand. Third, the CRM method take much more time and need statistical experts and computer programs throughout the trial. The current situation is that the clinicians still tend to follow the trial process that they are comfortable with. This situation is not likely to change in the near future. Based on this situation, we have the motivation to improve the accuracy of MTD selection while follow the procedure of the traditional design to maintain simplicity. We found that in 3+3 method, the dose transition and the MTD determination are relatively independent. Thus we proposed to separate the two stages. The dose transition rule remained the same as 3+3 method. After getting the toxicity information from the dose transition stage, we combined the isotonic transformation to ensure the monotonic increasing order before selecting the optimal MTD. To compare the operating characteristics of the proposed isotonic method and the other designs, we carried out 10,000 simulation trials under different dose setting scenarios to compare the design characteristics of the isotonic modified method with standard 3+3 method, CRM, biased coin design (BC) and k-in-a-row design (KIAW). The isotonic modified method improved MTD estimation of the standard 3+3 in 39 out of 40 scenarios. The improvement is much greater when the target is 0.3 other than 0.25. The modified design is also competitive when comparing with other selected methods. A CRM method performed better in general but was not as stable as the isotonic method throughout the different dose settings. The results demonstrated that our proposed isotonic modified method is not only easily conducted using the same procedure as 3+3 but also outperforms the conventional 3+3 design. It can also be applied to determine MTD for any given TTL. These features make the isotonic modified method of practical value in phase I clinical trials.^

Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

Automated soldier medical readiness: Prevalence of " medically not ready" using data from the electronic soldier readiness processing system (ESRP)

Identifying accurate numbers of soldiers determined to be medically not ready after completing soldier readiness processing may help inform Army leadership about ongoing pressures on the military involved in long conflict with regular deployment. In Army soldiers screened using the SRP checklist for deployment, what is the prevalence of soldiers determined to be medically not ready? Study group. 15,289 soldiers screened at all 25 Army deployment platform sites with the eSRP checklist over a 4-month period (June 20, 2009 to October 20, 2009). The data included for analysis included age, rank, component, gender and final deployment medical readiness status from MEDPROS database. Methods.^ This information was compiled and univariate analysis using chi-square was conducted for each of the key variables by medical readiness status. Results. Descriptive epidemiology Of the total sample 1548 (9.7%) were female and 14319 (90.2%) were male. Enlisted soldiers made up 13,543 (88.6%) of the sample and officers 1,746 (11.4%). In the sample, 1533 (10.0%) were soldiers over the age of 40 and 13756 (90.0%) were age 18-40. Reserve, National Guard and Active Duty made up 1,931 (12.6%), 2,942 (19.2%) and 10,416 (68.1%) respectively. Univariate analysis. Overall 1226 (8.0%) of the soldiers screened were determined to be medically not ready for deployment. Biggest predictive factor was female gender OR (2.8; 2.57-3.28) p<0.001. Followed by enlisted rank OR (2.01; 1.60-2.53) p<0.001. Reserve component OR (1.33; 1.16-1.53) p<0.001 and Guard OR (0.37; 0.30-0.46) p<0.001. For age > 40 demonstrated OR (1.2; 1.09-1.50) p<0.003. Overall the results underscore there may be key demographic groups relating to medical readiness that can be targeted with programs and funding to improve overall military medical readiness.^