Measurement of the vascular input function in mice for DCE-MRI

DCE-MRI is an important technique in the study of small animal cancer models because its sensitivity to vascular changes opens the possibility of quantitative assessment of early therapeutic response. However, extraction of physiologically descriptive parameters from DCE-MRI data relies upon measurement of the vascular input function (VIF), which represents the contrast agent concentration time course in the blood plasma. This is difficult in small animal models due to artifacts associated with partial volume, inflow enhancement, and the limited temporal resolution achievable with MR imaging. In this work, the development of a suite of techniques for high temporal resolution, artifact resistant measurement of the VIF in mice is described. One obstacle in VIF measurement is inflow enhancement, which decreases the sensitivity of the MR signal to the presence of contrast agent. Because the traditional techniques used to suppress inflow enhancement degrade the achievable spatiotemporal resolution of the pulse sequence, improvements can be achieved by reducing the time required for the suppression. Thus, a novel RF pulse which provides spatial presaturation contemporaneously with the RF excitation was implemented and evaluated. This maximizes the achievable temporal resolution by removing the additional RF and gradient pulses typically required for suppression of inflow enhancement. A second challenge is achieving the temporal resolution required for accurate characterization of the VIF, which exceeds what can be achieved with conventional imaging techniques while maintaining adequate spatial resolution and tumor coverage. Thus, an anatomically constrained reconstruction strategy was developed that allows for sampling of the VIF at extremely high acceleration factors, permitting capture of the initial pass of the contrast agent in mice. Simulation, phantom, and in vivo validation of all components were performed. Finally, the two components were used to perform VIF measurement in the murine heart. An in vivo study of the VIF reproducibility was performed, and an improvement in the measured injection-to-injection variation was observed. This will lead to improvements in the reliability of quantitative DCE-MRI measurements and increase their sensitivity.

Hebbian analysis of the transformation of medial entorhinal grid-cell inputs to hippocampal place fields.

The discovery of grid cells in the medial entorhinal cortex (MEC) permits the characterization of hippocampal computation in much greater detail than previously possible. The present study addresses how an integrate-and-fire unit driven by grid-cell spike trains may transform the multipeaked, spatial firing pattern of grid cells into the single-peaked activity that is typical of hippocampal place cells. Previous studies have shown that in the absence of network interactions, this transformation can succeed only if the place cell receives inputs from grids with overlapping vertices at the location of the place cell's firing field. In our simulations, the selection of these inputs was accomplished by fast Hebbian plasticity alone. The resulting nonlinear process was acutely sensitive to small input variations. Simulations differing only in the exact spike timing of grid cells produced different field locations for the same place cells. Place fields became concentrated in areas that correlated with the initial trajectory of the animal; the introduction of feedback inhibitory cells reduced this bias. These results suggest distinct roles for plasticity of the perforant path synapses and for competition via feedback inhibition in the formation of place fields in a novel environment. Furthermore, they imply that variability in MEC spiking patterns or in the rat's trajectory is sufficient for generating a distinct population code in a novel environment and suggest that recalling this code in a familiar environment involves additional inputs and/or a different mode of operation of the network.

High-sensitivity rod photoreceptor input to the blue-yellow color opponent pathway in macaque retina.

Small bistratified cells (SBCs) in the primate retina carry a major blue-yellow opponent signal to the brain. We found that SBCs also carry signals from rod photoreceptors, with the same sign as S cone input. SBCs exhibited robust responses under low scotopic conditions. Physiological and anatomical experiments indicated that this rod input arose from the AII amacrine cell-mediated rod pathway. Rod and cone signals were both present in SBCs at mesopic light levels. These findings have three implications. First, more retinal circuits may multiplex rod and cone signals than were previously thought to, efficiently exploiting the limited number of optic nerve fibers. Second, signals from AII amacrine cells may diverge to most or all of the approximately 20 retinal ganglion cell types in the peripheral primate retina. Third, rod input to SBCs may be the substrate for behavioral biases toward perception of blue at mesopic light levels.

CHOLINERGIC MODULATION OF THALAMIC INPUT INTO THE CINGULATE CORTEX

This research demonstrates cholinergic modulation of thalamic input into the limbic cortex. A projection from the mediodorsal thalamus (MD) to the anterior cingulate cortex was defined anatomically and physiologically. Injections of horse-radish peroxidase into the anterior cingulate cortex labels neurons in the lateral, parvocellular, region of MD. Electrical Stimulation of this area produces a complex field potential in the anterior cingulate cortex which was further characterized by current density analysis and single cell recordings.^ The monsynaptic component of the response was identified as a large negative field which is maximal in layer IV of the anterior cingulate cortex. This response shows remarkable tetanic potentiation of frequencies near 7 Hz. During a train of 50 or more stimuli, the response would grow quickly and remain at a fairly stable potentiated level throughout the train.^ Cholinergic modulation of this thalamic response was demonstrated by iontophoretic application of the cholinergic agonist carbachol decreased the effectiveness of the thalamic imput by rapidly attenuation the response during a train of stimuli. The effect was apparently mediated by muscarinic receptors since the effect of carbachol was blocked by atropine but not by hexamethonium.^ To determine the source of the cingulate cortex cholinergic innervation, lesions were made in the anterior and medial thalamus and in the nucleus of the diagonal band of Broca. The effects of these lesions on choline acetyltranferase activity in the cingulate cortex were determined by a micro-radio-enzymatical assay. Only the lesions of the nucleus of the diagonal band significantly decreased the choline acetyltransferase activity in the cingulate cortex regions. Therefore, the diagonal band appears to be a major source of sensory cholinergic innervation and may be involved in gating of sensory information from the thalamus into the limbic cortex. Attempts to modulate the cingulate response to MD stimulation with electrical stimulation of the diagonal band, however were not successful.^

Behavioral and cellular analysis of classical conditioning of feeding behavior in Aplysia

In classical conditioning, an associative form of learning, animals learn to associate two stimuli. Cellular and molecular mechanisms for the induction and consolidation of associative learning and memory at the level of single cells and synaptic connections have been studied in both vertebrate and invertebrate animals. The majority of studies, however, relied on aversive stimuli to induce learning. This bias may limit the extent to which identified mechanisms generalize to other forms of associative learning and memory, such as appetitive forms. The goal of the present study was to develop a classical conditioning procedure for the marine mollusk Aplysia californica using appetitive reinforcement, and to analyze associative learning using behavioral and electrophysiological techniques. ^ Using tactile stimulation of the lips as the conditional stimulus (CS) and food as the unconditional stimulus (US) a training protocol was developed that reliably induced classical conditioning of feeding behavior. Memory persisted for at least 24 hours. The gross organization of reinforcement-mediating pathways was analyzed in additional behavioral experiments. Moreover, neurophysiological correlates of classical conditioning were identified and characterized in an in vitro preparation containing the circuitry for feeding behavior. In vitro stimulation of a nerve (AT4) that may mediate the CS during training, resulted in a greater number of buccal motor patterns (BMPs) in brains from conditioned animals, as compared to control animals. The majority of these BMPs were ingestion-like, consistent with the increased number of bites in response to the CS after classical conditioning. Moreover, classical conditioning correlated with increased excitatory synaptic input to BMP-initiating neuron B31/32, in response to stimulation of AT 4, as compared to controls. The expression of the correlates of classical conditioning identified in this study was specific to stimulation of AT 4, which is consistent the stimulus specificity that is characteristic for classical conditioning. ^ The identification of cellular correlates of classical conditioning documented here provides the basis for future, more detailed analyses of an appetitive form of associative learning and memory, that may extend the working knowledge of the cellular and molecular mechanisms for associative plasticity in general. ^

Selection bias and the cross-validation of regression models for prediction

Strategies are compared for the development of a linear regression model with stochastic (multivariate normal) regressor variables and the subsequent assessment of its predictive ability. Bias and mean squared error of four estimators of predictive performance are evaluated in simulated samples of 32 population correlation matrices. Models including all of the available predictors are compared with those obtained using selected subsets. The subset selection procedures investigated include two stopping rules, C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$, each combined with an 'all possible subsets' or 'forward selection' of variables. The estimators of performance utilized include parametric (MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$) and non-parametric (PRESS) assessments in the entire sample, and two data splitting estimates restricted to a random or balanced (Snee's DUPLEX) 'validation' half sample. The simulations were performed as a designed experiment, with population correlation matrices representing a broad range of data structures.^ The techniques examined for subset selection do not generally result in improved predictions relative to the full model. Approaches using 'forward selection' result in slightly smaller prediction errors and less biased estimators of predictive accuracy than 'all possible subsets' approaches but no differences are detected between the performances of C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$. In every case, prediction errors of models obtained by subset selection in either of the half splits exceed those obtained using all predictors and the entire sample.^ Only the random split estimator is conditionally (on $\\beta$) unbiased, however MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ is unbiased on average and PRESS is nearly so in unselected (fixed form) models. When subset selection techniques are used, MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ and PRESS always underestimate prediction errors, by as much as 27 percent (on average) in small samples. Despite their bias, the mean squared errors (MSE) of these estimators are at least 30 percent less than that of the unbiased random split estimator. The DUPLEX split estimator suffers from large MSE as well as bias, and seems of little value within the context of stochastic regressor variables.^ To maximize predictive accuracy while retaining a reliable estimate of that accuracy, it is recommended that the entire sample be used for model development, and a leave-one-out statistic (e.g. PRESS) be used for assessment. ^

Information bias and lifetime mortality risks of radiation-induced cancer

Additive and multiplicative models of relative risk were used to measure the effect of cancer misclassification and DS86 random errors on lifetime risk projections in the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The true number of cancer deaths in each stratum of the cancer mortality cross-classification was estimated using sufficient statistics from the EM algorithm. Average survivor doses in the strata were corrected for DS86 random error ($\sigma$ = 0.45) by use of reduction factors. Poisson regression was used to model the corrected and uncorrected mortality rates with covariates for age at-time-of-bombing, age at-time-of-death and gender. Excess risks were in good agreement with risks in RERF Report 11 (Part 2) and the BEIR-V report. Bias due to DS86 random error typically ranged from $-$15% to $-$30% for both sexes, and all sites and models. The total bias, including diagnostic misclassification, of excess risk of nonleukemia for exposure to 1 Sv from age 18 to 65 under the non-constant relative projection model was $-$37.1% for males and $-$23.3% for females. Total excess risks of leukemia under the relative projection model were biased $-$27.1% for males and $-$43.4% for females. Thus, nonleukemia risks for 1 Sv from ages 18 to 85 (DRREF = 2) increased from 1.91%/Sv to 2.68%/Sv among males and from 3.23%/Sv to 4.02%/Sv among females. Leukemia excess risks increased from 0.87%/Sv to 1.10%/Sv among males and from 0.73%/Sv to 1.04%/Sv among females. Bias was dependent on the gender, site, correction method, exposure profile and projection model considered. Future studies that use LSS data for U.S. nuclear workers may be downwardly biased if lifetime risk projections are not adjusted for random and systematic errors. (Supported by U.S. NRC Grant NRC-04-091-02.) ^

POPULATION ASSESSMENTS OF INFECTION WITH SCHISTOSOMA MANSONI: EFFECTS OF BIAS CAUSED BY THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES (PUERTO RICO)

This study establishes the extent and relevance of bias of population estimates of prevalence, incidence, and intensity of infection with Schistosoma mansoni caused by the relative sensitivity of stool examination techniques. The population studied was Parcelas de Boqueron in Las Piedras, Puerto Rico, where the Centers for Disease Control, had undertaken a prospective community-based study of infection with S. mansoni in 1972. During each January of the succeeding years stool specimens from this population were processed according to the modified Ritchie concentration (MRC) technique. During January 1979 additional stool specimens were collected from 30 individuals selected on the basis of their mean S. mansoni egg output during previous years. Each specimen was divided into ten 1-gm aliquots and three 42-mg aliquots. The relationship of egg counts obtained with the Kato-Katz (KK) thick smear technique as a function of the mean of ten counts obtained with the MRC technique was established by means of regression analysis. Additionally, the effect of fecal sample size and egg excretion level on technique sensitivity was evaluated during a blind assessment of single stool specimen samples, using both examination methods, from 125 residents with documented S. mansoni infections. The regression equation was: Ln KK = 2.3324 + 0.6319 Ln MRC, and the coefficient of determination (r('2)) was 0.73. The regression equation was then utilized to correct the term "m" for sample size in the expression P ((GREATERTHEQ) 1 egg) = 1 - e('-ms), which estimates the probability P of finding at least one egg as a function of the mean S. mansoni egg output "m" of the population and the effective stool sample size "s" utilized by the coprological technique. This algorithm closely approximated the observed sensitivity of the KK and MRC tests when these were utilized to blindly screen a population of known parasitologic status for infection with S. mansoni. In addition, the algorithm was utilized to adjust the apparent prevalence of infection for the degree of functional sensitivity exhibited by the diagnostic test. This permitted the estimation of true prevalence of infection and, hence, a means for correcting estimates of incidence of infection. ^

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^