Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^

Black/white disparities in infant mortality rates in the U.S.: A quality of care perspective

The infant mortality rate for non-Hispanic Black infants in the U.S. is 13.63 deaths per 1,000 live births while the IMR for non-Hispanic White persons in the U.S. is 5.76 deaths per 1,000 live births. Black women are 2 times as likely as White women to deliver preterm infants and Black women are 2 times as likely as White women to deliver low birth weight infants (weighing less than 2,500 grams at birth). Differential underlying risk factors among mothers of different racial/ethnic groups for delivering pre-term and low birth weight infants have been historically accepted as the cause of racial disparities in IMRs. However, differential underlying risk status may not be the only major causative factor. Differential or unequal access to and provision of care is widely speculated to be a leading contributing factor to the wide racial disparity in infant mortality.2 This paper conducts a systematic review of existing literature investigating racial disparities in obstetrical care provided by healthcare practitioners to evaluate whether inequities in healthcare services provided to pregnant mothers and their neonates exist. The search terms "racial disparities obstetrical care," "racial differences quality of prenatal care," and "infant mortality racial disparities" were entered into the EBSCO Medline, Ovid Medline, PubMed, and Academic Search Complete databases, and articles between years 1990–2011 were selected for abstract review. The only articles included were those that used statistical methods to assess whether racial inequalities were present in the obstetrical services provided to pregnant women. My literature search returned 5 articles. Four of the five studies yielded significant racial differences in obstetrical care. However, the one study that used a large, nationally representative valid sample did not represent significant differences. Thus, this review provides initial evidence for racial disparities in obstetrical care, but concludes that more studies are needed in this area. Not all of the studies reviewed were consistent in the use and measurement of services, and not all studies were significant. The policy and public health implications of possible racial disparities in obstetrical care include the need to develop standard of care protocols for ALL obstetrical patients across the United States to minimize and/or eliminate the inequities and differences in obstetrical services provided.^

Indigent care and infant mortality in Texas

Infant Mortality has been made a point of emphasis by the Department of Health and Human Services in the Healthy People 2000, 2010, and 2020 priorities. This study used the Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations to consider a number of factors which impact infant mortality in the indigent populations in the State of Texas. The primary focus of this study was the enabling factor of community resources, specifically the program used by each county to provide care to their indigent population. The Legislature of the State of Texas requires that each state have a program set up within a Hospital District, Public Hospital or develop a County Indigent Health Care Program (CIHCP) in order to provide the basic health care needs of their most vulnerable residents. We sought to determine whether the development of a CICHP without an appointed hospital to provide the care would have an adverse effect on residents seeking care and increase infant mortality. A Poisson Regression Analysis was used to analyze incidence rate ratios adjusting for race/ethnicity and wealth/poverty variables. Our study showed that counties using a CIHCP had significantly lower infant mortality rates when compared to counties using a hospital district and were statistically equivalent to counties using a public hospital program or a combination of service programs. This relationship was maintained when adjusted incidence rate ratios were calculated. This may give evidence that counties struggling to fund a public hospital or hospital district may be able to find a more cost-effective alternative in the CIHCP without adversely affecting the health status of their residents. More cost-benefit analysis and controlling analysis must be done to further characterize this relationship. ^

The social construction of infant mortality: From grassroots to medicalization

Infant mortality as a problematic situation has been recognized for some 130 years in one form or another. It has undergone various changes in its empirical dimensions relative to whom we study within the population, what we study--low birth-weight vs. pre-term births--and how we study it--whether demographically or medically. An analysis of the process by which the condition was raised by claims makers as an intolerable situation among America's urban residents reveals that demographic and medical data were sparse. Nonetheless, a judgement about the meaning and significance of the condition was made, and that interpretation led to the promulgation of systems to both document and address the condition as it has come to be defined.^ This investigation depicts the historical context and natural history of infant mortality as one of a number of social problems that came to be defined through the interplay among groups and individuals making claims and how their claims came to the public policy agenda as worthy of collective resources--who won, who lost and why. The process of social definition focuses attention on the claims makers and the ways they contrast the meaning, origins and remedies for this troubling condition. The historical context becomes the frame of reference for understanding the actions of the claims makers and the meaning and significance they attached to the problem.^ We purport that "context" provides a closer reality than disjoined "value free" accounts. Context provides the evidence for the definition, who participated in the process, why and by what means.^ The role of women in the definitional process reveals the differences in approaches utilized by the women of the settlement house reform movement and African-American women working at the grass-roots. Much of the work done by these two groups provided options to the problem's remedy; however, their differences paved the way to our current (principally medically-oriented) definition and its inherent limitations. ^

INFANT MORTALITY IN THE MEXICAN AMERICAN COMMUNITY: AN ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENTIALS IN INFANT, NEONATAL, AND POSTNEONATAL MORTALITY BY ETHNICITY AND PARENTAL NATIVITY, 1974-75 SINGLE LIVE BIRTH COHORT, HARRIS COUNTY, TEXAS

The paradoxically low infant mortality rates for Mexican Americans in Texas have been attributed to inaccuracies in vital registration and idiosyncracies in Mexican migration in rural areas along the U.S.-Mexico border. This study examined infant (IMR), neonatal (NMR), and postneonatal (PNMR) mortality rates of Mexican Americans in an urban, non-border setting, using linked birth and death records of the 1974-75 single live birth cohort (N = 68,584) in Harris County, Texas, which includes the city of Houston and is reported to have nearly complete birth and death registration. The use of parental nativity with the traditional Spanish surname criterion made it possible to distinguish infants of Mexican-born immigrants from those of Blacks, Anglos, other Hispanics, and later-generation, more Anglicized Mexican Americans. Mortality rates were analyzed by ethnicity, parental nativity, and cause of death, with respect to birth weight, birth order, maternal age, legitimacy status, and time of first prenatal care.^ While overall IMRs showed Spanish surname rates slightly higher than Anglo rates, infants of Mexican-born immigrants had much lower NMRs than did Anglos, even for moderately low birth weight infants. However, among infants under 1500 grams, presumably unable to be discharged home in the neonatal period, Mexican Americans had the highest NMR. The inconsistency suggested unreported deaths for Mexican American low birth weight infants after hospital discharge. The PNMR of infants of Mexican immigrants was also lower than for Anglos, and the usual mortality differentials were reversed: high-risk categories of high birth order, high maternal age, and late/no prenatal care had the lowest PNMRs. Since these groups' characteristics are congruent with those of low-income migrants, the data suggested the possibility of migration losses. Cause of death analysis suggested that prematurity and birth injuries are greater problems than heretofore recognized among Mexican Americans, and that home births and "shoebox burials" may be unrecorded even in an urban setting.^ Caution is advised in the interpretation of infant mortality rates for a Spanish surname population of Mexican origin, even in an urban, non-border area with reportedly excellent birth and death registration. ^

First -year mortality and survival among infants with selected congenital anomalies in Texas, 1995 to 1997

Congenital anomalies have been a leading cause of infant mortality for the past twenty years in the United States. Few registry-based studies have investigated the mortality experience of infants with congenital anomalies. Therefore, a registry-based mortality study was conducted of 2776 infants from the Texas Birth Defects Registry who were born January 1, 1995 to December 31, 1997, with selected congenital anomalies. Infants were matched to linked birth-infant death files from the Texas Department of Health, Bureau of Vital Statistics. One year Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and mortality estimates were generated for each of the 23 anomalies by maternal race/ethnicity, infant sex, birth weight, gestational age, number of life-threatening anomalies, prenatal diagnosis, hospital of birth and other variables. ^ There were 523 deaths within the first year of life (mortality rate = 191.0 per 1,000 infants). Infants with gastroschisis, trisomy 21, and cleft lip ± palate had the highest first year survival (92.91%, 92.32%, and 87.59%, respectively). Anomalies with the lowest survival were anencephaly (5.13%), trisomy 13 (7.41%), and trisomy 18 (10.29%). ^ Infants born to White, Non-Hispanic women had the highest first year survival (83.57%; 95% CI: 80.91, 85.88), followed by African-Americans (82.43%; 95% CI: 76.98, 86.70) and Hispanics (79.28%; 95% CI: 77.19, 81.21). Infants with birth weights ≥2500 grams and gestational ages ≥37 weeks also had the highest first year survival. First year mortality drastically increased as the number of life-threatening anomalies increased. Mortality was also higher for infants with anomalies that were prenatally diagnosed. Slight differences existed in survival based on infant's place of delivery. ^ In logistic regression analysis, birth weight (<1500 grams: OR = 7.48; 95% CI: 5.42, 10.33; 1500–2499 grams: OR = 3.48; 95% CI: 2.74, 4.42), prenatal diagnosis (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.43, 2.58) and number of life-threatening anomalies (≥3: OR = 22.45; 95% CI: 11.67, 43.18) were the strongest predictors of death within the first year of life for all infants with selected congenital anomalies. To achieve further reduction in the infant mortality rate in the United States, additional research is needed to identify ways to reduce mortality among infants with congenital anomalies. ^

The welfare state determinants of health: Implications of regimes and pathways

Background. Population health within and between nations is heavily influenced by political determinants, yet these determinants have received significantly less attention than socioeconomic factors in public health. It has been hypothesized that the welfare state, as a political variable, may play a particularly prominent role in affecting both health indicators and health disparities in developed countries. The research, however, provides conflicting evidence regarding the health impact of particular regimes over others and the mechanisms through which the welfare state can most significantly affect health.^ Objective. To perform a systematic review of the literature as a means of exploring what the current research indicates regarding the benefits or detriments of particular regimes styles and the pathways through which the welfare state can impact heath indicators and health disparities within developed countries.^ Methods. A thorough search of the EBSCO, Pubmed, Medline, Web of Science, and Scopus electronic databases was conducted and resulted in the identification of 15 studies that evaluated the association between welfare state regime and population health outcomes, and/or pathways through with the welfare state influences health. ^ Results. Social democratic countries tended to perform best when infant mortality rate (IMR) was the primary outcome of interest, whereas liberal countries performed strongly in relation to self perceived health. The results were mixed regarding welfare state effectiveness in mitigating health inequities, with Christian democratic countries performing as well as social democratic countries. In relation to welfare state pathways, public health spending and medical coverage were associated with positive health indicators. Redistributive impact of the welfare state was also consistently associated with better health outcomes while social security expenditures were not.^ Discussion/Conclusions. Studies consistently discovered a significant relationship between the welfare state and population health and/or health disparities, lending support to the hypothesis that the welfare state is, indeed, an important non-medical determinant of health. However, it is still fairly unclear which welfare state regime may be most protective for health, as results varied according to the measured health indicator. The research regarding welfare state pathways is particularly undeveloped, and does not provide much insight into the importance of in-kind service provision or cash transfers, or targeted or universal approaches to the welfare state. Suggestions to direct future research are provided.^

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^

Aggressive vs. conservative phototherapy for infants with extremely low birth weight.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether aggressive phototherapy to prevent neurotoxic effects of bilirubin benefits or harms infants with extremely low birth weight (1000 g or less). METHODS: We randomly assigned 1974 infants with extremely low birth weight at 12 to 36 hours of age to undergo either aggressive or conservative phototherapy. The primary outcome was a composite of death or neurodevelopmental impairment determined for 91% of the infants by investigators who were unaware of the treatment assignments. RESULTS: Aggressive phototherapy, as compared with conservative phototherapy, significantly reduced the mean peak serum bilirubin level (7.0 vs. 9.8 mg per deciliter [120 vs. 168 micromol per liter], P<0.01) but not the rate of the primary outcome (52% vs. 55%; relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 1.02; P=0.15). Aggressive phototherapy did reduce rates of neurodevelopmental impairment (26%, vs. 30% for conservative phototherapy; relative risk, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.99). Rates of death in the aggressive-phototherapy and conservative-phototherapy groups were 24% and 23%, respectively (relative risk, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.22). In preplanned subgroup analyses, the rates of death were 13% with aggressive phototherapy and 14% with conservative phototherapy for infants with a birth weight of 751 to 1000 g and 39% and 34%, respectively (relative risk, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.34), for infants with a birth weight of 501 to 750 g. CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive phototherapy did not significantly reduce the rate of death or neurodevelopmental impairment. The rate of neurodevelopmental impairment alone was significantly reduced with aggressive phototherapy. This reduction may be offset by an increase in mortality among infants weighing 501 to 750 g at birth. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00114543.)

The results of a barrier analysis on complementary feeding practices among mothers in the Central River Division of the Gambia

Currently, the barriers to appropriate infant feeding practices are largely unknown in the Central River Division of the Gambia. A questionnaire was developed and implemented by a local Non Governmental Organization (NGO), the Gambia Food and Nutrition Agency, in order to gain more information and ultimately to improve the child mortality rate of the country. There were two participant groups: 88 Doers who are women who had adopted the appropriate complementary feeding practice guidelines as defined by the World Health Organization and 87 Non Doers who are women who had in some way strayed from the appropriate complementary feeding practice guidelines. The questionnaire included aspects of the Health Belief Model which can be used in the development of a future intervention. The Yes/No questions were analyzed using the Chi-square statistical method and the open-ended questions used a descriptive analysis method of evaluation. The constructs for perceived susceptibility, perceived action efficacy, perceived self efficacy, cues for action and perception of divine showed significant differences between the Doers and the Non Doers (p<0.05). The descriptive analysis revealed that both participant groups had a limited understanding of the preventative qualities of the adoption of appropriate complementary feeding practices. The women in both of groups also showed a strong perception of divine will. Women in the Central River Division perceive their husband and in-laws to be the most influential in the decision-making process regarding infant feeding practices. Recommendations for future interventions must acknowledge the importance and influence of the community surrounding the women in their adoption of the appropriate infant feeding practices. It would also be important to educate women about of the specific guidelines of the appropriate complementary feeding practices, specifically the delay in early initiation of complementary feeding. The results of this barrier analysis provide useful information to plan and implement an effective intervention to improve the child mortality rate in the Gambia. ^

Perinatal mortality and quality of care at the National Institute of Perinatology: A 3-year analysis

Quality of medical care has been indirectly assessed through the collection of negative outcomes. A preventable death is one that could have been avoided if optimum care had been offered. The general objective of the present project was to analyze the perinatal mortality at the National Institute of Perinatology (located in Mexico City) by social, biological and some available components of quality of care such as avoidability, provider responsibility, and structure and process deficiencies in the delivery of medical care. A Perinatal Mortality Committee data base was utilized. The study population consisted of all singleton perinatal deaths occurring between January 1, 1988 and June 30, 1991 (n = 522). A proportionate study was designed.^ The population studied mostly corresponded to married young adult mothers, who were residents of urban areas, with an educational level of junior high school or more, two to three pregnancies, and intermediate prenatal care. The mean gestational age at birth was 33.4 $\pm$ 3.9 completed weeks and the mean birthweight at birth was 1,791.9 $\pm$ 853.1 grams.^ Thirty-five percent of perinatal deaths were categorized as avoidable. Postnatal infection and premature rupture of membranes were the most frequent primary causes of avoidable perinatal death. The avoidable perinatal mortality rate was 8.7 per 1000 and significantly declined during the study period (p $<$.05). Preventable perinatal mortality aggregated data suggested that at least part of the mortality decline for amenable conditions was due to better medical care.^ Structure deficiencies were present in 35% of avoidable deaths and process deficiencies were present in 79%. Structure deficiencies remained constant over time. Process deficiencies consisted of diagnosis failures (45.8%) and treatment failures (87.3%), they also remained constant through the years. Party responsibility was as follows: Obstetric (35.4%), pediatric (41.4%), institutional (26.5%), and patient (6.6%). Obstetric responsibility significantly increased during the study period (p $<$.05). Pediatric responsibility declined only for newborns less than 1500 g (p $<$.05). Institutional responsibility remained constant.^ Process deficiencies increased the risk for an avoidable death eightfold (confidence interval 1.7-41.4, p $<$.01) and provider responsibility ninety-fivefold (confidence interval 14.8-612.1, p $<$.001), after adjustment for several confounding variables. Perinatal mortality due to prematurity, barotrauma and nosocomial infection, was highly preventable, but not that due to transpartum asphyxia. Once specific deficiencies in the quality of care have been identified, quality assurance actions should begin. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEGREE OF BLOOD PRESSURE REDUCTION AND MORTALITY AMONG HYPERTENSIVES IN THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between degree of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reduction and mortality was examined among hypertensives, ages 30-69, in the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center community-based trial, which followed 10,940 hypertensive participants for five years. One-year survival was required for inclusion in this investigation since the one-year annual visit was the first occasion where change in blood pressure could be measured on all participants. During the subsequent four years of follow-up on 10,052 participants, 568 deaths occurred. For levels of change in DBP and for categories of variables related to mortality, the crude mortality rate was calculated. Time-dependent life tables were also calculated so as to utilize available blood pressure data over time. In addition, the Cox life table regression model, extended to take into account both time-constant and time-dependent covariates, was used to examine the relationship change in blood pressure over time and mortality.^ The results of the time-dependent life table and time-dependent Cox life table regression analyses supported the existence of a quadratic function which modeled the relationship between DBP reduction and mortality, even after adjusting for other risk factors. The minimum mortality hazard ratio, based on a particular model, occurred at a DBP reduction of 22.6 mm Hg (standard error = 10.6) in the whole population and 8.5 mm Hg (standard error = 4.6) in the baseline DBP stratum 90-104. After this reduction, there was a small increase in the risk of death. There was not evidence of the quadratic function after fitting the same model using systolic blood pressure. Methodologic issues involved in studying a particular degree of blood pressure reduction were considered. The confidence interval around the change corresponding to the minimum hazard ratio was wide and the obtained blood pressure level should not be interpreted as a goal for treatment. Blood pressure reduction was attributed, not only to pharmacologic therapy, but also to regression to the mean, and to other unknown factors unrelated to treatment. Therefore, the surprising results of this study do not provide direct implications for treatment, but strongly suggest replication in other populations. ^

GROWTH PATTERNS OF CHILDREN OF MOTHERS WITH EPILEPSY

The extent to which antiepileptic drugs (AED) in utero exposure are related to prenatal and postnatal growth is investigated in an retrospective, cohort study of children of AED treated mothers with epilepsy (N = 89) and children of women without epilepsy (N = 89). The study groups were obtained from a population based health care facility.^ Major finding was that birth head circumference of AED exposed children are significantly smaller than control children, notably male children. Other findings include birth length and weight of exposed children was slightly but not significantly smaller. Postnatal growth as measured by two velocity terms, rate of growth, and deceleration, was not significantly different between exposed and control children for height, weight, and head circumference, indicating no catch up growth. Morphologic defects, neonatal and infant mortality was more frequent in exposed children. Mothers with epilepsy reported significantly fewer spontaneous abortions. ^

Sudden Infant Death disparities: A systematic review on health education and policy recommendations for decreasing Sudden Infant Death in the African-American community

Objective: To perform a systematic review of the literature on SIDS and SUID deaths concentrated in the African-American community, describe health education and policy recommendations and recommend a new approach that may aid in decreasing the disparity of infant mortality in the African-American community. ^ Methods: The PubMed database was systematically searched to identify relevant articles for final review and analysis. Using the CASP 2006 system to critique literature, twelve articles were found that met inclusion and exclusion criteria. ^ Results: Evidence in the literature confirmed there was a current disparity among African Americans' infant mortality rates in comparison to other US ethnic groups. The underlying reasons for these disparities included the following maternal and infant characteristics: mothers younger than eighteen, having more than one live infant, having a high school education or less, never been married, and have infants born preterm or with low birth weight. Maternal smoking, substance abuse, and breastfeeding did not have a significant impact on infant sleep environments among African Americans. ^ Conclusion: Tailored health education programs at the community level, better access to pre-pregnancy and prenatal care, and increased maternal perception of risk that is relevant to the infants sleeping environment are all possible solutions that may decrease African American infant mortality rates.^