Sequential updating via dynamic hierarchical models: A Bayesian approach to longitudinal data analysis

Most statistical analysis, theory and practice, is concerned with static models; models with a proposed set of parameters whose values are fixed across observational units. Static models implicitly assume that the quantified relationships remain the same across the design space of the data. While this is reasonable under many circumstances this can be a dangerous assumption when dealing with sequentially ordered data. The mere passage of time always brings fresh considerations and the interrelationships among parameters, or subsets of parameters, may need to be continually revised. ^ When data are gathered sequentially dynamic interim monitoring may be useful as new subject-specific parameters are introduced with each new observational unit. Sequential imputation via dynamic hierarchical models is an efficient strategy for handling missing data and analyzing longitudinal studies. Dynamic conditional independence models offers a flexible framework that exploits the Bayesian updating scheme for capturing the evolution of both the population and individual effects over time. While static models often describe aggregate information well they often do not reflect conflicts in the information at the individual level. Dynamic models prove advantageous over static models in capturing both individual and aggregate trends. Computations for such models can be carried out via the Gibbs sampler. An application using a small sample repeated measures normally distributed growth curve data is presented. ^

An examination of the relationship between maternal and neighborhood-level characteristics and intrauterine growth retardation in Harris County, Texas, 1999--2001

The persistence of low birth weight and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) in the United States has puzzled researchers for decades. Much of the work that has been conducted on adverse birth outcomes has focused on low birth weight in general and not on IUGR. Studies that have examined IUGR specifically thus far have focused primarily on individual-level maternal risk factors. These risk factors have only been able to explain a small portion of the variance in IUGR. Therefore, recent work has begun to focus on community-level risk factors in addition to the individual-level maternal characteristics. This study uses Social Ecology to examine the relationship of individual and community-level risk factors and IUGR. Logistic regression was used to establish an individual-level model based on 155, 856 births recorded in Harris County, TX during 1999-2001. IUGR was characterized using a fetal growth ratio method with race/ethnic and sex specific mean birth weights calculated from national vital records. The spatial distributions of 114,460 birth records spatially located within the City of Houston were examined using choropleth, probability and density maps. Census tracts with higher than expected rates of IUGR and high levels of neighborhood disadvantage were highlighted. Neighborhood disadvantage was constructed using socioeconomic variables from the 2000 U.S. Census. Factor analysis was used to create a unified single measure. Lastly, a random coefficients model was used to examine the relationship between varying levels of community disadvantage, given the set of individual-level risk factors for 152,997 birth records spatially located within Harris County, TX. Neighborhood disadvantage was measured using three different indices adapted from previous work. The findings show that pregnancy-induced hypertension, previous preterm infant, tobacco use and insufficient weight gain have the highest association with IUGR. Neighborhood disadvantage only slightly further increases the risk of IUGR (OR 1.12 to 1.23). Although community level disadvantage only helped to explain a small proportion of the variance of IUGR, it did have a significant impact. This finding suggests that community level risk factors should be included in future work with IUGR and that more work needs to be conducted. ^

Culture and the social context of health inequalities

There has been a great deal of interest and debate recently concerning the linkages between inequality and health cross-nationally. Exposures to social and health inequalities likely vary as a consequence of different cultural contexts. It is important to guide research by a theoretical perspective that includes cultural and social contexts cross-nationally. If inequality affects health only under specific cultural conditions, this could explain why some of the literature that compares different societies finds no evidence of a relationship between inequality and health in certain countries. A theoretical framework is presented that combines sociological theory with constructs from cultural psychology in order to identify pathways that might lead from cultural dimensions to health inequalities. Three analyses are carried out. The first analysis explores whether there is a relationship between cultural dimensions at the societal level and self-rated health at the individual level. The findings suggest that different cultural norms at the societal level can produce both social and health inequalities, but the effects on health may differ depending on the socio-cultural context. The second analysis tests the hypothesis that health is affected by the density of social networks in a society, levels of societal trust, and inequality. The results suggest that commonly used measures of social cohesion and inequality may have both contextual and compositional effects on health in a large number of countries, and that societal measures of social cohesion and inequality interact with individual measures of social participation, trust, and income, moderating their effects on health. The third analysis explores whether value systems associated with vertical individualist societies may lead to health disparities because of their stigmatizing effects. I test the hypothesis that, within vertical individualist societies, subjective well-being will be affected by a social context where competition and the Protestant work ethic are valued, mediated by inequality. The hypothesis was not supported by the available cross-national data, most likely because of inadequate measures, missing data, and the small sample of vertical individualist countries. The overall findings demonstrate that cultural differences are important contextual factors that should not be overlooked when examining the causes of health inequalities. ^

The local safety net, health insurance, preventable hospitalizations and costs: Harris County (Houston), Texas

The aim of this study was to examine the association between determinants of access to healthcare and preventable hospitalizations, based on Davidson et al.'s framework for evaluating the effects of individual and community determinants on access to healthcare. The study population consisted of the low income, non-elderly, hospitalized adults residing in Harris County, Texas in 2004. The objectives of this study were to examine the proportion of the variance in preventable hospitalizations at the ZIP-code level, to analyze the association between the proximity to the nearest safety net clinic and preventable hospitalizations, to examine how the safety net capacity relates to preventable hospitalizations, to compare the relative strength of the associations of health insurance and the proximity to the nearest safety net clinic with preventable hospitalizations, and to estimate and compare the costs of preventable hospitalizations in Harris County with the average cost in the literature. The data were collected from Texas Health Care Information Collection (2004), Census 2000, and Project Safety Net (2004). A total of 61,841 eligible individuals were included in the final data analysis. A random-intercept multi-level model was constructed with two different levels of data: the individual level and the ZIP-code level. The results of this study suggest that ZIP-code characteristics explain about two percent of the variance in preventable hospitalizations and safety net capacity was marginally significantly associated with preventable hospitalizations (p= 0.062). Proximity to the nearest safety net clinic was not related to preventable hospitalizations; however, health insurance was significantly associated with a decreased risk of preventable hospitalization. The average direct cost was $6,466 per preventable hospitalization, which is significantly different from reports in the literature. ^

Literature review of estimation of prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in India using population survey and sentinel surveillance based data

HIV/AIDS is a treatable although incurable disease that presents immense challenges to those infected including physical, social and psychological effects. As of 2009, an estimated 2.4 million people were living with HIV or AIDS in India, 0.3% of the country's population. In India, it is difficult to not only treat but also to track because it is associated with socio-economic factors such as illiteracy, social biases, poor sanitation, malnutrition and social class. Nevertheless, it is important to know the prevalence of HIV/AIDS for several reasons. At the individual level, the quality of life of people living with HIV/AIDS is markedly lower than their counterparts without the disease and is associated with challenges. At the community level, it is important to identify high risk groups, monitor prevention efforts, and allocate appropriate resources to target programs for the reduction of transmission of HIV. ^

The relationship between enterotoxigenic {\it Escherichia coli\/} infection and environmental risk factors in Bilbeis, Egypt, 1981--1983

Diarrheal disease associated with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) infection is one of the major public health problems in many developing countries, especially in infants and young children. Because tests suitable for field laboratories have been developed only relatively recently, the literature on the environmental risk factors associated with ETEC is not as complete as for many other pathogens or for diarrhea of unspecified etiology.^ Data from a diarrheal disease surveillance project in rural Egypt in which stool samples were tested for a variety of pathogens, and in which an environmental questionnaire was completed for the same study households, provided an opportunity to test for an association between ETEC and various risk factors present in those households. ETEC laboratory-positive specimens were compared with ETEC laboratory-negative specimens for both symptomatic and asymptomatic children less than three years of age at the individual and household level using a case-comparison design.^ Individual children more likely to have LT infection were those who lived in HHs that had cooked food stored for subsequent consumption at the time of the visit, where caretakers used water but not soap to clean an infant after a diarrheal stool, and that had an indoor, private water source. LT was more common in HHs where the caretaker did not clean an infant with soap after a diarrheal stool, and where a sleeping infant was not covered with a net. At both the individual and HH level, LT was significantly associated with good water supply in terms of quantity and storage.^ ST was isolated more frequently at the individual level where a sleeping infant was covered with a net, where large animals were kept in or around the house, where water was always available and was not potable, and where the water container was not covered. At the HH level, the absence of a toilet or latrine and the indiscriminate disposal of animal waste decreased risk. Using animal feces for fertilizer, the presence of large animals, and poor water quality were associated with ST at both the individual and HH level.^ These findings are mostly consistent with those of other studies, and/or are biologically plausible, with the obvious exception of those from this study where poorer water supplies are associated with less infection, at least in the case of LT. More direct observation of how animal ownership and feces disposal relates to different types of water supply and usage might clarify mechanisms through which some ETEC infection could be prevented in similar settings. ^

A comparison of worker risk of injury while working on fully automated side loaders and other residential collection trucks at a large solid waste collection company

The study aim was to determine whether using automated side loader (ASL) trucks in higher proportions compared to other types of trucks for residential waste collection results in lower injury rates (from all causes). The primary hypothesis was that the risk of injury to workers was lower for those who work with ASL trucks than for workers who work with other types of trucks used in residential waste collection. To test this hypothesis, data were collected from one of the nation’s largest companies in the solid waste management industry. Different local operating units (i.e. facilities) in the company used different types of trucks to varying degrees, which created a special opportunity to examine refuse collection injuries and illnesses and the risk reduction potential of ASL trucks.^ The study design was ecological and analyzed end-of-year data provided by the company for calendar year 2007. During 2007, there were a total of 345 facilities which provided residential services. Each facility represented one observation.^ The dependent variable – injury and illness rate, was defined as a facility’s total case incidence rate (TCIR) recorded in accordance with federal OSHA requirements for the year 2007. The TCIR is the rate of total recordable injury and illness cases per 100 full-time workers. The independent variable, percent of ASL trucks, was calculated by dividing the number of ASL trucks by the total number of residential trucks at each facility.^ Multiple linear regression models were estimated for the impact of the percent of ASL trucks on TCIR per facility. Adjusted analyses included three covariates: median number of hours worked per week for residential workers; median number of months of work experience for residential workers; and median age of residential workers. All analyses were performed with the statistical software, Stata IC (version 11.0).^ The analyses included three approaches to classifying exposure, percent of ASL trucks. The first approach included two levels of exposure: (1) 0% and (2) >0 - <100%. The second approach included three levels of exposure: (1) 0%, (2) ≥ 1 - < 100%, and (3) 100%. The third approach included six levels of exposure to improve detection of a dose-response relationship: (1) 0%, (2) 1 to <25%, (3) 25 to <50%, (4) 50 to <75%, (5) 75 to <100%, and (6) 100%. None of the relationships between injury and illness rate and percent ASL trucks exposure levels was statistically significant (i.e., p<0.05), even after adjustment for all three covariates.^ In summary, the present study shows that there is some risk reduction impact of ASL trucks but not statistically significant. The covariates demonstrated a varied yet more modest impact on the injury and illness rate but again, none of the relationships between injury and illness rate and the covariates were statistically significant (i.e., p<0.05). However, as an ecological study, the present study also has the limitations inherent in such designs and warrants replication in an individual level cohort design. Any stronger conclusions are not suggested.^

Patients' preferences for a prostate cancer consultation, a discrete choice experiment

Four basic medical decision making models are commonly discussed in the literature in reference to physician-patient interactions. All fall short in their attempt to capture the nuances of physician-patient interactions, and none satisfactorily address patients' preferences for communication and other attributes of care. Prostate cancer consultations are one setting where preferences matter and are likely to vary among patients. Fortunately, discrete choice experiments are capable of casting light on patients' preferences for communication and other attributes of value that make up a consultation before the consultation occurs, which is crucial if patients are to derive the most utility from the process of reaching a decision as well as the decision itself. The results of my dissertation provide strong support to the notion that patients, at least in the hypothetical setting of a DCE, have identifiable preferences for the attributes of a prostate cancer consultation and that those preferences are capable of being elicited before a consultation takes place. Further, patients' willingness-to-pay for the non-cost attributes of the consultation is surprisingly robust to a variety of individual level variables of interest. ^

Systematic review of current trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and association between health insurance coverage and CVD mortality among women aged 60--65 in Texas in 2000--2011

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is highly preventable, yet it is a leading cause of death among women in Texas. The primary goals of this research were to examine past and current trends of CVD, as well as identify whether there is an association between the insurance coverage and mortality from CVD among women aged 60–65 in Texas between 2000 and 2011. ^ The systematic review of the research is based on the guidelines and recommendations set by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination for conducting reviews in health care. Over 47 citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five websites were identified, of which 7 studies met inclusion criteria for the first systematic review to examine the trends of CVD in Texas. Ten citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five web sites were reviewed for the second systematic review (to study the association between insurance coverage and cardiovascular health among Texas women 60–64 years of age), of which 3 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in the research. The results of the study highlighted key gaps in the existing literature and important areas for the further research, as well as determined directions for future public health CVD prevention programs in Texas. ^ Based on the conducted research, the major determinants of premature mortality among women attributed to cardiovascular disease are based on individual level characteristics, more specifically sex, age, race/ethnicity, and education. The results indicate that African American and non-Hispanic white women are more likely to have higher CVD mortality rates than Hispanic women due to higher prevalence of cardiac risk factors. The data also shows higher levels of mortality from CVD in the southeastern United States, with Texas ranking as the third state with the highest prevalence of CVD among women. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, there are approximately 56,000 deaths caused by CVD annually in Texas, which represents about one death every ten minutes. Coronary artery disease and stroke were the causes of 31.2 percent of all female deaths in Texas in 2009, meaning that approximately 68 women die from any form of cardiac disease in Texas each day. ^ The data of the reviewed studies indicate that women' lack of health insurance was significantly associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease. The uninsured women were more likely to be unaware of their risk factors and more likely to have undiagnosed diabetes—a co-morbidity factor of CVD. One of the studies also reports strong correlation between state rates of uninsured and lower rates of preventive care. Given these strong correlations, those who were chronically uninsured were at a higher risk of mortality than the insured, due to prolonged periods of time without basic access to preventive and medical care. ^ Suggested recommendations to decrease CVD mortality rates in Texas are consistent with the existing literature and include state policy development that addresses elimination of health disparities, consideration of potential benefits of universal health coverage by the legislative policymakers, and maintenance of solid partnerships between public health agencies and hospitals to educate on, diagnose, and treat CVD among the female population in Texas. ^

Inappropriate imaging utilization in Texas: Geographic variation and predictive factors

Objective::Describe and understand regional differences and associated multilevel factors (patient, provider and regional) to inappropriate utilization of advance imaging tests in the privately insured population of Texas. Methods: We analyzed Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas claims dataset to study the advance imaging utilization during 2008-2010 in the PPO/PPO+ plans. We used three of CMS "Hospital Outpatient Quality Reporting" imaging efficiency measures. These included ordering MRI for low back pain without prior conservative management (OP-8) and utilization of combined with and without contrast abdominal CT (OP-10) and thorax CT (OP-11). Means and variation by hospital referral regions (HRR) in Texas were measured and a multilevel logistic regression for being a provider with high values for any the three OP measures was used in the analysis. We also analyzed OP-8 at the individual level. A multilevel logistic regression was used to identify predictive factors for having an inappropriate MRI for low back pain. Results: Mean OP-8 for Texas providers was 37.89%, OP-10 was 29.94% and OP-11 was 9.24%. Variation was higher for CT measure. And certain HRRs were consistently above the mean. Hospital providers had higher odds of high OP-8 values (OP-8: OR, 1.34; CI, 1.12-1.60) but had smaller odds of having high OP-10 and OP-11 values (OP-10: OR, 0.15; CI, 0.12-0.18; OP-11: OR, 0.43; CI, 0.34-0.53). Providers with the highest volume of imaging studies performed, were less likely to have high OP-8 measures (OP-8: OR, 0.58; CI, 0.48-0.70) but more likely to perform combined thoracic CT scans (OP-11: OR, 1.62; CI, 1.34-1.95). Males had higher odds of inappropriate MRI (OR, 1.21; CI, 1.16-1.26). Pattern of care in the six months prior to the MRI event was significantly associated with having an inappropriate MRI. Conclusion::We identified a significant variation in advance imaging utilization across Texas. Type of facility was associated with measure performance, but the associations differ according to the type of study. Last, certain individual characteristics such as gender, age and pattern of care were found to be predictors of inappropriate MRIs.^

A study of nutrition promotion in and consumer nutrition environments of hospitals

Dietary intake is a complex, health-related behavior, and although individual-level theoretical models explain some variation in dietary intake, comprehensive theoretical models such as the ecological framework describe the multiple levels which influence diet-related behaviors. Thus, the ecological framework is a preferred model for designing comprehensive nutrition interventions. While ecological-based nutrition interventions have been described, little work has focused on interventions in the hospital setting. Because hospitals are considered the hallmarks of health, it might seem that hospitals would regularly engage in worksite nutrition promotion; however, recent publications and other anecdotal evidence have indicated otherwise. The first paper of this dissertation systematically reviewed the scientific literature between 1996 and 2012 and identified 13 outcome evaluation trials for hospital-based worksite nutrition interventions. Of these 13 interventions, only one intervention targeted three of the four levels of the ecological framework and no intervention targeted all four levels. Only half of the interventions targeted the physical environment of hospitals, thus warranting more investigation into this specific level of the ecological framework in this setting. ^ A critical type of nutrition-related physical environments is the consumer nutrition environment. Although other tools measure the consumer nutrition environments of stores and restaurants, no tool specifically measured the consumer nutrition environments of hospitals until the CDC developed the Healthy Hospital Environment Scan for Cafeterias, Vending Machines, and Gift Shops (HHES-CVG). The HHES-CVG, a tool which measures the consumer nutrition environments of hospital cafeterias, vending machines, and gifts shops, was released in November 2011, and in the second paper of this dissertation, the reliability of this tool was investigated. Two trained raters visited 39 hospitals across Southern California between February and May 2012, and based on analyses of the raters' findings, the HHES-CVG exhibited strong reliability metrics (inter-observer agreement between 74 and 100%, and an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.961 for the overall nutrition composite score). Because the HHES-CVG was found to be a reliable tool, the third paper of this dissertation presented HHES-CVG results from the 39 hospitals. Overall, hospitals only scored about one-fourth of the total possible points for the nutrition composite score, indicating that most facilities do not have acceptable consumer nutrition environments. Some of the best practices observed in cafeterias were significantly associated with having a large facility and with having a contracted foodservice operation, but overall nutrition composite score was not associated with any specific facility or operation type. ^ The dissertation concluded that much work is needed in order to improve the consumer nutrition environments of hospitals. Practitioners and healthcare administrators should consider starting with ecological-based interventions addressing all levels including the physical environment.^