Effects of informative censoring on the hazard function: Application to the proportional hazards regression model

The standard analyses of survival data involve the assumption that survival and censoring are independent. When censoring and survival are related, the phenomenon is known as informative censoring. This paper examines the effects of an informative censoring assumption on the hazard function and the estimated hazard ratio provided by the Cox model.^ The limiting factor in all analyses of informative censoring is the problem of non-identifiability. Non-identifiability implies that it is impossible to distinguish a situation in which censoring and death are independent from one in which there is dependence. However, it is possible that informative censoring occurs. Examination of the literature indicates how others have approached the problem and covers the relevant theoretical background.^ Three models are examined in detail. The first model uses conditionally independent marginal hazards to obtain the unconditional survival function and hazards. The second model is based on the Gumbel Type A method for combining independent marginal distributions into bivariate distributions using a dependency parameter. Finally, a formulation based on a compartmental model is presented and its results described. For the latter two approaches, the resulting hazard is used in the Cox model in a simulation study.^ The unconditional survival distribution formed from the first model involves dependency, but the crude hazard resulting from this unconditional distribution is identical to the marginal hazard, and inferences based on the hazard are valid. The hazard ratios formed from two distributions following the Gumbel Type A model are biased by a factor dependent on the amount of censoring in the two populations and the strength of the dependency of death and censoring in the two populations. The Cox model estimates this biased hazard ratio. In general, the hazard resulting from the compartmental model is not constant, even if the individual marginal hazards are constant, unless censoring is non-informative. The hazard ratio tends to a specific limit.^ Methods of evaluating situations in which informative censoring is present are described, and the relative utility of the three models examined is discussed. ^

Behavioral decision making and the levels of change: An application of the transtheoretical model to prenatal smoking in low -income women

Despite continued research and public health efforts to reduce smoking during pregnancy, prenatal cessation rates in the United States have decreased and the incidence of low birth weight has increased from 1985 to 1991. Lower socioeconomic status women who are at increased risk for poor pregnancy outcomes may be resistant to current intervention efforts during pregnancy. The purpose of this dissertation was to investigate the determinants of continued smoking and quitting among low-income pregnant women.^ Using data from cross-sectional surveys of 323 low-income pregnant smokers, the first study developed and tested measures of the pros and cons of smoking during pregnancy. The original decisional balance measure for smoking was compared with a new measure that added items thought to be more salient to the target population. Confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modeling showed neither the original nor new measure fit the data adequately. Using behavioral science theory, content from interviews with the population, and statistical evidence, two 7-item scales representing the pros and cons were developed from a portion (n = 215) of the sample and successfully cross-validated on the remainder of the sample (n = 108). Logistic regression found only pros were significantly associated with continued smoking. In a discriminant function analysis, stage of change was significantly associated with pros and cons of smoking.^ The second study examined the structural relationships between psychosocial constructs representing some of the levels of and the pros and cons of smoking. The cross-sectional design mandates that statements made regarding prediction do not prove causation or directionality from the data or methods analysis. Structural equation modeling found the following: more stressors and family criticism were significantly more predictive of negative affect than social support; a bi-directional relationship was found between negative affect and current nicotine addiction; and negative affect, addiction, stressors, and family criticism were significant predictors of pros of smoking.^ The findings imply reversing the trend of decreasing smoking cessation during pregnancy may require supplementing current interventions for this population of pregnant smokers with programs addressing nicotine addiction, negative affect, and other psychosocial factors such as family functioning and stressors. ^

Gain-of-function of the p53R172H mutation in a mouse model of Li -Fraumeni syndrome

Missense mutations in the p53 tumor-suppressor gene are the most common alterations of p53 in somatic tumors and in patients with Li-Fraumeni syndrome. p53 missense mutations occur in the DNA binding region and disrupt the ability of p53 to activate transcription. In vitro studies have shown that some p53 missense mutants have a gain-of-function or dominant-negative activity. ^ The p53 175 Arg-to-His (p53 R175H) mutation in humans has been shown to have dominant-negative and gain-of-function properties in vitro. This mutation is observed in the germline of individuals with Li-Fraumeni syndrome. To accurately model Li-Fraumeni syndrome and to examine the mechanistic nature of a gain-of-function missense mutation on in vivo tumorigenesis, we generated and characterized a mouse with the corresponding mutation, p53 R172H. p53R172H homozygous and heterozygous mice developed similar tumor spectra and survival curves as p53 −/− and p53+/− mice, respectively. However, tumors in p53+/R172H mice metastasized to various organs with high frequency, suggesting a gain-of-function phenotype by p53R172H in vivo. Mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) from p53R172H mice also showed gain-of-function phenotypes in cell proliferation, DNA synthesis, and transformation potential, while cells from p53+/− and p53−/− mice did not. ^ To mechanistically characterize the gain-of-function phenotype of the p53R172H mutant, the role of p53 family members, p63 and p73, was analyzed. Disruption of p63 and p73 by siRNAs in p53 −/− MEFs increased transformation potential and reinitiated DNA synthesis to levels observed in p53R172H/R172H cells. Additionally, p63 and p73 were bound and functionally inactivated by p53R172H in metastatic p53 R172H tumor-derived cell lines, indicating a role for the p53 family members in the gain-of-function phenotype. This study provides in vivo evidence for the gain-of-function effect of p53 missense mutations and more accurately models the Li-Fraumeni syndrome. ^