Predictive oncology: a review of multidisciplinary, multiscale in silico modeling linking phenotype, morphology and growth.

Empirical evidence and theoretical studies suggest that the phenotype, i.e., cellular- and molecular-scale dynamics, including proliferation rate and adhesiveness due to microenvironmental factors and gene expression that govern tumor growth and invasiveness, also determine gross tumor-scale morphology. It has been difficult to quantify the relative effect of these links on disease progression and prognosis using conventional clinical and experimental methods and observables. As a result, successful individualized treatment of highly malignant and invasive cancers, such as glioblastoma, via surgical resection and chemotherapy cannot be offered and outcomes are generally poor. What is needed is a deterministic, quantifiable method to enable understanding of the connections between phenotype and tumor morphology. Here, we critically assess advantages and disadvantages of recent computational modeling efforts (e.g., continuum, discrete, and cellular automata models) that have pursued this understanding. Based on this assessment, we review a multiscale, i.e., from the molecular to the gross tumor scale, mathematical and computational "first-principle" approach based on mass conservation and other physical laws, such as employed in reaction-diffusion systems. Model variables describe known characteristics of tumor behavior, and parameters and functional relationships across scales are informed from in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo biology. We review the feasibility of this methodology that, once coupled to tumor imaging and tumor biopsy or cell culture data, should enable prediction of tumor growth and therapy outcome through quantification of the relation between the underlying dynamics and morphological characteristics. In particular, morphologic stability analysis of this mathematical model reveals that tumor cell patterning at the tumor-host interface is regulated by cell proliferation, adhesion and other phenotypic characteristics: histopathology information of tumor boundary can be inputted to the mathematical model and used as a phenotype-diagnostic tool to predict collective and individual tumor cell invasion of surrounding tissue. This approach further provides a means to deterministically test effects of novel and hypothetical therapy strategies on tumor behavior.

S9511: a Southwest Oncology Group phase II study of trimetrexate, 5-fluorouracil, and leucovorin in unresectable or metastatic adenocarcinoma of the stomach.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of this trial was to evaluate the response rate for trimetrexate in conjunction with 5-FU and leucovorin (LV) (= TFL) in the treatment of advanced gastric cancer in a phase II, cooperative group setting. METHODS: Patients with locally advanced, unresectable, or metastatic adenocarcinoma of the stomach received trimetrexate 110 mg/m IV over 60 minutes day 1, followed by 5-FU 500 mg/m IV bolus and LV 200 mg/m IV over 60 minutes day 2, followed by oral LV 15 mg every 6 hours x 7 doses, all weekly for 6 weeks followed by 2 weeks of rest, continued until progression. RESULTS: Characteristics for 37 eligible patients: median age 63 (range: 23-83); male/female: 69% of 31%; performance status 0/1/2 15/20/1. The confirmed response rate was 19%, and median overall survival was 6 months. Two patients died as a result of therapy, 1 because of infection without significant neutropenia, and 1 due to perforation of a responding gastric lesion. Seventy-two percent experienced grades 3 and 4 toxicity, most commonly diarrhea, fatigue, and lymphopenia. CONCLUSIONS: This regimen achieves response rates comparable to other 5-FU-based regimens, when used in treatment of incurable gastric cancer. Toxicity appears manageable.

Bayesian dual threshold design with Dirichlet distribution: An alternative way to frequentist multi-stage phase II designs in oncology

Many phase II clinical studies in oncology use two-stage frequentist design such as Simon's optimal design. However, they have a common logistical problem regarding the patient accrual at the interim. Strictly speaking, patient accrual at the end of the first stage may have to be suspended until all patients have events, success or failure. For example, when the study endpoint is six-month progression free survival, patient accrual has to be stopped until all outcomes from stage I is observed. However, study investigators may have concern when accrual is suspended after the first stage due to the loss of accrual momentum during this hiatus. We propose a two-stage phase II design that resolves the patient accrual problem due to an interim analysis, and it can be used as an alternative way to frequentist two-stage phase II studies in oncology. ^

Capitalizing on success against childhood HIV/AIDS in Botswana: Towards a comprehensive healthcare policy for pediatric oncology in Botswana

Pediatric HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa has been a major public health crisis with an estimated 3.5 million children infected. Baylor International Pediatric AIDS Initiative (BIPAI) has created a network of centers providing care and treatment for these children in several countries. In Botswana, where the first BIPAI center in Africa was opened, childhood mortality from HIV/AIDS is now less than 1%. Botswana is a middle-income country that previously held the highest HIV prevalence rate in the world. Efforts against HIV/AIDS have resulted in the building of a strong medical infrastructure with clear success against pediatric HIV/AIDS. The WHO predicts the next global health crisis will be cancer. Given the increased incidence of cancer in the setting of HIV/AIDS, Botswana has already implemented strategies to combat HIV-related malignancies in adults, but efforts in pediatrics have been lagging. This policy paper describes the importance of building on success against pediatric HIV/AIDS and extending this success to pediatric cancer in general. Specifically, it outlines a comprehensive pediatric cancer policy for the education and training of health professionals, the development of a pediatric cancer program, a pediatric cancer registry, public awareness efforts, and an appropriate, country specific pediatric cancer research agenda.^

Quality assessment in radiation oncology

Oncologic specialty societies and multidisciplinary collaborative groups have dedicated considerable effort to developing evidence-based quality indicators (QIs) to facilitate quality improvement, accreditation, benchmarking, reimbursement, maintenance of certification, and regulatory reporting. In particular, radiation oncology as a field has a long history of organized quality assessment efforts, and continues to work toward developing consensus quality standards in the face of continually evolving technologies and standards of care. The present report provides a comprehensive review of the current state of quality assessment in radiation oncology, with an emphasis on recent quality improvement efforts. Specifically, this report aims to highlight implications of the healthcare quality movement for radiation oncology and review existing efforts to define and measure quality in the field, with particular focus on dimensions of quality that are specific to radiation oncology within the "big picture" of oncologic quality improvement efforts.^

Evaluation of elevator shafts as a pathway for fungal spores and particles to enter a hospital housing immuno-compromised patients

Background. It is estimated that hospitals spend between 28 and 33 billion dollars per year as a result of hospital-acquired infections. (Scott, 2009) The costs continue to rise despite the guidance and controls provided by hospital infection control staff to reduce patient exposures to fungal spores and other infectious agents. With all processes and controls in place, the vented elevator shaft represents an unprotected opening from the top of the building to the lower floors. The hypothesis for this prospective study is that there is a positive correlation between the number of Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spores, Cladosporium, ascospores, basidiospores in spores/m3 as individual spore categories found in the hoistway vent of an elevator shaft and the levels of the same spores, sampled near-simultaneously in the outdoor intake of the elevator shaft. Specific aims of this study include determining if external Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spores are entering the healthcare facility via the elevator shaft and hoistway vents. Additional aims include determining levels of Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spores outdoors, in the elevator shafts, and indoors in areas possibly affected by elevator shaft air; and, finally, to evaluate whether any effect is observed due to the installation of a hoistway vent damper, installed serendipitously during this study. ^ Methods. Between April 2010 and September 2010, a total of 3,521 air samples were collected, including 363 spore trap samples analyzed microscopically for seven spore types, and polymerase chain reaction analyses on 254 air samples. 2178 particle count measurements, 363 temperature readings and 363 relative humidity readings were also obtained from 7 different locations potentially related to the path of air travel inside and near a centrally-located and representative elevator shaft. ^ Results. Mean Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spore values were higher outside the building (530 spores/m3 of air) than inside the hoistway (22.8 spores/m3) during the six month study. Mean values inside the hospital were lower than outside throughout the study, ranging from 15 to 73 spores/m3 of air. Mean Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spore counts inside the hoistway decreased from 40.1 spores/m3 of air to 9 spores/m3 of air following the installation of a back draft damper between the outside air and the elevator shaft. Comparison of samples collected outside the building and inside the hoistway vent prior to installing the damper indicated a strong positive correlation (Spearman's Rho=0.8008, p=0.0001). The similar comparison following the damper installation indicated a moderate non-significant inverse correlation (Spearman's rho = −0.2795, p=0.1347). ^ Conclusion. Elevator shafts are one pathway for mold spores to enter a healthcare facility. A significant correlation was detected between spores and particle counts inside the hoistway and outside prior to changes in the ventilation system. The insertion of the back draft damper appeared to lower the spore counts inside the hoistway and inside the building. The mold spore counts in air outside the study building were higher in the period following the damper installation while the levels inside the hoistway and hospital decreased. Cladosporium and Penicillium/Aspergillus -like spores provided a method for evaluating indoor air quality as a natural tracer from outside the building to inside the building. Ascospores and basidiospores were not a valuable tracer due to low levels of detection during this study. ^ Installation of a back draft damper provides additional protection for the indoor environment of a hospital or healthcare facility, including in particular patients who may be immunocompromised. Current design standards and references do not require the installation of a back draft damper, but evaluation of adding language to relevant building codes should be considered. The data indicate a reduction in levels of Penicillium/Aspergillus -like spores, particle counts and a reduction in relative humidity inside of the elevator shaft after damper installation.^