A review of economic analysis in the vaccination program; decision making and governance: Adivisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) develops written recommendations for the routine administration of vaccines to children and adults in the U.S. civilian population. The ACIP is the only entity in the federal government that makes such recommendations. ACIP elaborates on selection of its members and rules out concerns regarding its integrity, but fails to provide information about the importance of economic analysis in vaccine selection. ACIP recommendations can have large health and economic consequences. Emphasis on economic evaluation in health is a likely response to severe pressures of the federal and state health budget. This study describes the economic aspects considered by the ACIP while sanctioning a vaccine, and reviews the economic evaluations (our economic data) provided for vaccine deliberations. A five year study period from 2004 to 2009 is adopted. Publicly available data from ACIP web database is used. Drummond et al. (2005) checklist serves as a guide to assess the quality of economic evaluations presented. Drummond et al.'s checklist is a comprehensive hence it is unrealistic to expect every ACIP deliberation to meet all of their criteria. For practical purposes we have selected seven criteria that we judge to be significant criteria provided by Drummond et al. Twenty-four data points were obtained in a five year period. Our results show that out of the total twenty-four data point‘s (economic evaluations) only five data points received a score of six; that is six items on the list of seven were met. None of the data points received a perfect score of seven. Seven of the twenty-four data points received a score of five. A minimum of a two score was received by only one of the economic analyses. The type of economic evaluation along with the model criteria and ICER/QALY criteria met at 0.875 (87.5%). These three criteria were met at the highest rate among the seven criteria studied. Our study findings demonstrate that the perspective criteria met at 0.583 (58.3%) followed by source and sensitivity analysis criteria both tied at 0.541 (54.1%). The discount factor was met at 0.250 (25.0%).^ Economic analysis is not a novel concept to the ACIP. It has been practiced and presented at these meetings on a regular basis for more than five years. ACIP‘s stated goal is to utilize good quality epidemiologic, clinical and economic analyses to help policy makers choose among alternatives presented and thus achieve a better informed decision. As seen in our study the economic analyses over the years are inconsistent. The large variability coupled with lack of a standardized format may compromise the utility of the economic information for decision-making. While making recommendations, the ACIP takes into account all available information about a vaccine. Thus it is vital that standardized high quality economic information is provided at the ACIP meetings. Our study may provide a call for the ACIP to further investigate deficiencies within the system and thereby to improve economic evaluation data presented. ^

Population amalgamation and genetic variation: observations on artificially agglomerated tribal populations of Central and South America.

The interpretation of data on genetic variation with regard to the relative roles of different evolutionary factors that produce and maintain genetic variation depends critically on our assumptions concerning effective population size and the level of migration between neighboring populations. In humans, recent population growth and movements of specific ethnic groups across wide geographic areas mean that any theory based on assumptions of constant population size and absence of substructure is generally untenable. We examine the effects of population subdivision on the pattern of protein genetic variation in a total sample drawn from an artificial agglomerate of 12 tribal populations of Central and South America, analyzing the pooled sample as though it were a single population. Several striking findings emerge. (1) Mean heterozygosity is not sensitive to agglomeration, but the number of different alleles (allele count) is inflated, relative to neutral mutation/drift/equilibrium expectation. (2) The inflation is most serious for rare alleles, especially those which originally occurred as tribally restricted "private" polymorphisms. (3) The degree of inflation is an increasing function of both the number of populations encompassed by the sample and of the genetic divergence among them. (4) Treating an agglomerated population as though it were a panmictic unit of long standing can lead to serious biases in estimates of mutation rates, selection pressures, and effective population sizes. Current DNA studies indicate the presence of numerous genetic variants in human populations. The findings and conclusions of this paper are all fully applicable to the study of genetic variation at the DNA level as well.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: Descriptive epidemiology, secular trends, and birth cohort effects on incidence, 1950--1989

This study describes the patterns of occurrence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and parkinsonism-dementia complex (PDC) of Guam during 1950-1989. Both ALS and PDC occur with high frequency among the indigenous Chamorro population, first recognized in the early 1950's. Reports in the early 1980's indicated that both ALS and PDC were disappearing, due to a purported reduction in exposure to harmful environmental factors as a result of the dramatic changes in lifestyle that took place after World War II. However, this study provides compelling evidence that ALS and PDC have not disappeared on Guam and that rates for both are higher during 1980-1989 than previously reported.^ The patterns of occurrence for both ALS and PDC overlap in most respects: (1) incidence and mortality are decreasing; (2) median age at onset is increasing; (3) males are at increased risk for developing disease; (4) risk is higher for those residing in the south compared to the non-south; and (5) age-specific incidence is decreasing over time except in the oldest age groups.^ Age-specific incidence of ALS and PDC, separately and together, is generally higher for cohorts born before 1920 than for those born after 1920. A significant birth cohort effect on the incidence of PDC for the 1906-1915 birth cohort was found, but not for ALS and for ALS and PDC together. Whether or not a cohort effect, period effect, or both are associated with incidence of ALS and PDC cannot be determined from the data currently available and will require additional follow-up of individuals born after 1920.^ The epidemiological data amassed over this 40-year period provide evidence that supports an environmental exposure model for disease occurrence as opposed to a simple genetic or infectious disease model. Whether neurodegenerative disease in this population occurs as a consequence of a single exposure or is explained by a multifactorial model such as a genetic predisposition with some environmental interaction is yet to be determined. However, descriptive studies such as this can provide clues concerning timing and location of potential adverse exposures but cannot determine etiology, underscoring the urgent need for analytic studies of ALS and PDC to further investigate existing etiologic hypotheses and to test new hypotheses. ^

New algorithms for automated phylogenetic reconstruction using artificial intelligence and data mining techniques

Academic and industrial research in the late 90s have brought about an exponential explosion of DNA sequence data. Automated expert systems are being created to help biologists to extract patterns, trends and links from this ever-deepening ocean of information. Two such systems aimed on retrieving and subsequently utilizing phylogenetically relevant information have been developed in this dissertation, the major objective of which was to automate the often difficult and confusing phylogenetic reconstruction process. ^ Popular phylogenetic reconstruction methods, such as distance-based methods, attempt to find an optimal tree topology (that reflects the relationships among related sequences and their evolutionary history) by searching through the topology space. Various compromises between the fast (but incomplete) and exhaustive (but computationally prohibitive) search heuristics have been suggested. An intelligent compromise algorithm that relies on a flexible “beam” search principle from the Artificial Intelligence domain and uses the pre-computed local topology reliability information to adjust the beam search space continuously is described in the second chapter of this dissertation. ^ However, sometimes even a (virtually) complete distance-based method is inferior to the significantly more elaborate (and computationally expensive) maximum likelihood (ML) method. In fact, depending on the nature of the sequence data in question either method might prove to be superior. Therefore, it is difficult (even for an expert) to tell a priori which phylogenetic reconstruction method—distance-based, ML or maybe maximum parsimony (MP)—should be chosen for any particular data set. ^ A number of factors, often hidden, influence the performance of a method. For example, it is generally understood that for a phylogenetically “difficult” data set more sophisticated methods (e.g., ML) tend to be more effective and thus should be chosen. However, it is the interplay of many factors that one needs to consider in order to avoid choosing an inferior method (potentially a costly mistake, both in terms of computational expenses and in terms of reconstruction accuracy.) ^ Chapter III of this dissertation details a phylogenetic reconstruction expert system that selects a superior proper method automatically. It uses a classifier (a Decision Tree-inducing algorithm) to map a new data set to the proper phylogenetic reconstruction method. ^

Evaluation of environmental contamination of Clostridium difficile associated diarrhea in hospital rooms at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital (SLEH) and review of literature on environmental sampling

The study was carried out at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital to evaluate environmental contamination of Clostridium difficile in the infected patient rooms. Samples were collected from the high risk areas and were immediately cultured for the presence of Clostridium difficile . Lack of microbial typing prevented the study of molecular characterization of the Clostridium difficile isolates obtained led to a change in the study hypothesis. The study found a positivity of 10% among 50 Hospital rooms sampled for the presence of Clostridium difficile. The study provided data that led to recommendations that routine environmental sampling be carried in the hospital rooms in which patients with CDAD are housed and that effective environmental disinfection methods are used. The study also recommended molecular typing methods to allow characterization of the CD strains isolated from patients and environmental sampling to determine their type, similarity and origin.^

Effects of breastfeeding and naturally acquired immunity on infection with {\it Giardia lamblia}: A study in a cohort of Mexican infants

Giardia lamblia is one of the most common causes of gastrointestinal tract infection among young children worldwide. Yet host protection against this parasite and the effect of infection with Giardia on infant growth are poorly understood. It was hypothesized that among young children, protection against infection with Giardia is afforded by breastfeeding and previous infection with the parasite and further, that infection with Giardia decreases growth velocity. From 4/88 to 4/90, 197 infants in a poor area of Mexico City were followed from 0 to 18 months of age, with stool specimens, symptoms and feeding status data collected weekly. A total of 6,031 stool specimens were tested for Giardia antigen by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. There were 1.0 Giardia infections per child-year; 25% were symptomatic and 54% lasted more than 1 month; 94 infants had 1, and 33 had 2 or more infections. Breastfeeding status was coded and analyzed for each child-week of follow up. 91% of study infants were breastfed from birth, 57% at 6 months and 38% at 12 months of age. Rate ratios for non-breastfeeding adjusted for confounding factors were calculated from stratified analyses and the Cox proportional hazards model. Not breastfeeding was a significant risk factor for first infection with Giardia vs. any breastfeeding (adjusted RR = 1.8; 1.1, 2.8) at all ages; a dose response was demonstrated by degree of breastfeeding. The adjusted rate ratio for non-breastfeeding vs. partial breastfeeding was 1.6 (1.03, 2.6) and for non-breastfeeding vs. complete breastfeeding was 4.7 (1.4, 15.9). Among Giardia infected infants, breastfeeding did not protect against diarrheal symptoms or shorten the duration of carriage. First and repeat infections with Giardia did not differ in duration or the percent symptomatic. The analysis of growth and Giardia infection was inconclusive but suggested that a history of Giardia infection might be associated with decreased weight velocity, while an immediate chronic infection might be associated with increased weight velocity. In summary, these data indicate that breastfeeding protects infants against infection with Giardia; provide no evidence of protection against repeat infections resulting from a prior infection and suggest but do not establish that a history of Giardia infection might be associated with decreased growth in young children. ^

The impact of traditional psychiatric services and case management services on the functioning of people with schizophrenia: A cross-national study in Nova Scotia and Texas

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of traditional psychiatric services with case management services on the functioning of people with schizophrenia. Traditional services were defined as routine clinic services consisting of medication follow-along, psychotherapy, and support services. Case management consisted of activities involved in linking, planning, and monitoring services for the outpatient client who has schizophrenia. The target population was adult schizophrenics who had been receiving outpatient clinic services for a minimum of six months. Structured interviews were conducted using standardized scales (e.g., Quality of Life, Self-Efficacy, and Brief Symptom Inventory) with 78 outpatient client volunteers from two sites: Nova Scotia (Canada) and Texas (USA). The researcher tested for differences in psychiatric symptomatology, recidivism, and quality of life for persons with schizophrenia receiving traditional psychiatric services in Nova Scotia and traditional plus case management services in Texas. Data were collected from the structured interviews and medical records review forms. Types of services were blocked into low and high levels of Intensity (frequency x minutes) and compared to determine the relative contribution of each. Finally, the role of clients' self-efficacy was tested as an intervening variable. Although the findings did not support the hypotheses in the direction anticipated, there were some interesting and useful results. From the Nova Scotia site, clients who received low levels of services were hospitalized less compared to the Texas site. The more psychotic a patient was the higher their involvement in medication follow-along and the more monitoring they received. The more psychotherapy received, the lower the reported satisfaction with social relationships. Of particular interest is the role that self-efficacy played in improved client outcomes. Although self-efficacy scores were related to improved functioning, the mechanism for this still needs to be clarified through subsequent research. ^

Effect of primary care availability and health insurance coverage on risk and cost of Preventable Hospitalizations in Harris County

Preventable Hospitalizations (PHs) are hospitalizations that can be avoided with appropriate and timely care in the ambulatory setting and hence are closely associated with primary care access in a community. Increased primary care availability and health insurance coverage may increase primary care access, and consequently may be significantly associated with risks and costs of PHs. Objective. To estimate the risk and cost of preventable hospitalizations (PHs); to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs, first alone and then simultaneously; and finally, to estimate the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the burden of PHs among non-elderly adult residents of Harris County. Methods. The study population was residents of Harris County, age 18 to 64, who had at least one hospital discharge in a Texas hospital in 2008. The primary independent variables were availability of primary care physicians, availability of primary care safety net clinics and health insurance coverage. The primary dependent variables were PHs and associated hospitalization costs. The Texas Health Care Information Collection (THCIC) Inpatient Discharge data was used to obtain information on the number and costs of PHs in the study population. Risk of PHs in the study population, as well as average and total costs of PHs were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models and two-step Heckman regression models with log-transformed costs were used to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs respectively, while controlling for individual predisposing, enabling and need characteristics. Predicted PH risk and cost were used to calculate the predicted burden of PHs in the study population and the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the predicted burden. Results. In 2008, hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County had 11,313 PHs and a corresponding PH risk of 8.02%. Congestive heart failure was the most common PH. PHs imposed a total economic burden of $84 billion at an average of $7,449 per PH. Higher primary care safety net availability was significantly associated with the lower risk of PHs in the final risk model, but only in the uninsured. A unit increase in safety net availability led to a 23% decline in PH odds in the uninsured, compared to only a 4% decline in the insured. Higher primary care physician availability was associated with increased PH costs in the final cost model (β=0.0020; p<0.05). Lack of health insurance coverage increased the risk of PH, with the uninsured having 30% higher odds of PHs (OR=1.299; p<0.05), but reduced the cost of a PH by 7% (β=-0.0668; p<0.05). Expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage were associated with a reduction of about $1.6 million in PH burden at the highest level of expansion. Conclusions. Availability of primary care resources and health insurance coverage in hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County are significantly associated with the risk and costs of PHs. Expansions in these primary care access factors can be expected to produce significant reductions in the burden of PHs in Harris County.^