Illusory predictors: Generalizability of findings in cocaine treatment retention research.

Treatment retention is of paramount importance in cocaine treatment research as treatment completion rates are often 50% or less. Failure to retain cocaine patients in treatment has both significant research and clinical implications. In this paper we qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrate the inconsistency found across analyses of retention predictors in order to highlight the problem. First, a qualitative review of the published literature was undertaken to identify the frequency of predictors studied and their relations to treatment retention. Second, an empirical demonstration of predictor stability was conducted by testing a common set of variables across three similar 12-week cocaine clinical trials conducted by the same investigators in the same research clinic within a five-year period. Results of the literature review indicated inconsistently selected variables of convenience, widely varying statistical procedures, and discrepant findings of significance. Further, quantitative analyses resulted in discrepancies in variables identified as significant predictors of retention among the three studies. Potential sources of heterogeneity affecting the consistency of findings across studies and recommendations to improve the validity and generalizability of predictor findings in future studies are proposed.

DEVELOPING A METHOD FOR IDENTIFYING AND REDUCING FUNCTIONAL DISCREPANCIES OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Currently more than half of Electronic Health Record (EHR) projects fail. Most of these failures are not due to flawed technology, but rather due to the lack of systematic considerations of human issues. Among the barriers for EHR adoption, function mismatching among users, activities, and systems is a major area that has not been systematically addressed from a human-centered perspective. A theoretical framework called Functional Framework was developed for identifying and reducing functional discrepancies among users, activities, and systems. The Functional Framework is composed of three models – the User Model, the Designer Model, and the Activity Model. The User Model was developed by conducting a survey (N = 32) that identified the functions needed and desired from the user’s perspective. The Designer Model was developed by conducting a systemic review of an Electronic Dental Record (EDR) and its functions. The Activity Model was developed using an ethnographic method called shadowing where EDR users (5 dentists, 5 dental assistants, 5 administrative personnel) were followed quietly and observed for their activities. These three models were combined to form a unified model. From the unified model the work domain ontology was developed by asking users to rate the functions (a total of 190 functions) in the unified model along the dimensions of frequency and criticality in a survey. The functional discrepancies, as indicated by the regions of the Venn diagrams formed by the three models, were consistent with the survey results, especially with user satisfaction. The survey for the Functional Framework indicated the preference of one system over the other (R=0.895). The results of this project showed that the Functional Framework provides a systematic method for identifying, evaluating, and reducing functional discrepancies among users, systems, and activities. Limitations and generalizability of the Functional Framework were discussed.

Somatic and cognitive domains of depression in an underserved region of Ecuador: some cultural considerations.

Not enough research efforts on depression have been carried out up to now in Latin America. The knowledge that has resulted from research activities in the United States or Europe offers limited generalizability to other regions of the world, including Latin America. In the Andean highlands of Ecuador, we found very high rates of moderate and severe depressive symptoms, a finding that must be interpreted within its cultural context. Somatic manifestations of depression predominated over cognitive manifestations, and higher education level was protective against depression. These findings call for an appreciation of culturally-specific manifestations of depression and the social factors that influence them. These factors must be further studied in order to give them the deserved priority, allocate resources appropriately, and formulate innovative psychosocial interventions.

Nonviolent factors: Variables associated with ethnic violence, and factors which are associated with nonviolent response to grievances toward members of other ethnic groups

Ethnic violence appears to be the major source of violence in the world. Ethnic hostilities are potentially all-pervasive because most countries in the world are multi-ethnic. Public health's focus on violence documents its increasing role in this issue.^ The present study is based on a secondary analysis of a dataset of responses by 272 individuals from four ethnic groups (Anglo, African, Mexican, and Vietnamese Americans) who answered questions regarding variables related to ethnic violence from a general questionnaire which was distributed to ethnically diverse purposive, nonprobability, self-selected groups of individuals in Houston, Texas, in 1993.^ One goal was psychometric: learning about issues in analysis of datasets with modest numbers, comparison of two approaches to dealing with missing observations not missing at random (conducting analysis on two datasets), transformation analysis of continuous variables for logistic regression, and logistic regression diagnostics.^ Regarding the psychometric goal, it was concluded that measurement model analysis was not possible with a relatively small dataset with nonnormal variables, such as Likert-scaled variables; therefore, exploratory factor analysis was used. The two approaches to dealing with missing values resulted in comparable findings. Transformation analysis suggested that the continuous variables were in the correct scale, and diagnostics that the model fit was adequate.^ The substantive portion of the analysis included the testing of four hypotheses. Hypothesis One proposed that attitudes/efficacy regarding alternative approaches to resolving grievances from the general questionnaire represented underlying factors: nonpunitive social norms and strategies for addressing grievances--using the political system, organizing protests, using the system to punish offenders, and personal mediation. Evidence was found to support all but one factor, nonpunitive social norms.^ Hypothesis Two proposed that the factor variables and the other independent variables--jail, grievance, male, young, and membership in a particular ethnic group--were associated with (non)violence. Jail, grievance, and not using the political system to address grievances were associated with a greater likelihood of intergroup violence.^ No evidence was found to support Hypotheses Three and Four, which proposed that grievance and ethnic group membership would interact with other variables (i.e., age, gender, etc.) to produce variant levels of subgroup (non)violence.^ The generalizability of the results of this study are constrained by the purposive self-selected nature of the sample and small sample size (n = 272).^ Suggestions for future research include incorporating other possible variables or factors predictive of intergroup violence in models of the kind tested here, and the development and evaluation of interventions that promote electoral and nonelectoral political participation as means of reducing interethnic conflict. ^

An evaluation of a community-based program for homeless adults with mental disorders and comorbid alcohol drug and mental disorders

Limited research has been conducted evaluating programs that are designed to improve the outcomes of homeless adults with mental disorders and comorbid alcohol, drug and mental disorders. This study conducted such an evaluation in a community-based day treatment setting with clients of the Harris County Mental Health and Mental Retardation Authority's Bristow Clinic. The study population included all clients who received treatment at the clinic for a minimum of six months between January 1, 1995 and August 31, 1996. An electronic database was used to identify clients and to track their program involvement. A profile was developed of the study participants and their level of program involvement included an examination of the amount of time spent in clinical, social and other interventions, the type of interventions encountered and the number of interventions encountered. Results were analyzed to determine whether social, demographic and mental history affected levels of program involvement and the effects of the levels of program involvement on housing status and psychiatric functioning status.^ A total of 101 clients met the inclusion criteria. Of the 101 clients, 96 had a mental disorder, and five had comorbidity. Due to the limited numbers of participants with comorbidity, only those with mental disorders were included in the analysis. The study found the Bristow Clinic population to be primarily single, Black, male, between the ages of 31 and 40 years, and with a gross family income of less than $4,000. There were more persons residing on the streets at entry and at six months following treatment than in any other residential setting. The most prevalent psychiatric diagnoses were depressive disorders and schizophrenia. The Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale which was used to determine the degree of psychiatric functioning revealed a modal GAF score of 31--40 at entry and following six months in treatment. The study found that the majority of clients spent less than 17 hours in treatment, had less than 51 encounters and had clinical, social, and other encounters. In regard to social and demographic factors and levels of program involvement, there were statistically significant associations between gender and ethnicity and the types of interventions encountered as well as the number of interventions encountered. There was also a statistically significant difference between the amount of time spent in clinical interventions and gender. Relative to outcomes measured, the study found female gender to be the only background variable that was significantly associated with improved housing status and the female gender and previous MHMRA involvement to be statistically associated with improvement in GAF score. The total time in other (not clinical or social) interventions and the total number of encounters with other interventions were also significantly associated with improvement in housing outcome. The analysis of previous services and levels of program involvement revealed significant associations between time spent in social and clinical interventions and previous hospitalizations and previous MHMRA involvement.^ Major limitations of this study include the small sample size which may have resulted in very little power to detect differences and the lack of generalizability of findings due to site locations used in the study. Despite these limitations, the study makes an important contribution to the literature by documenting the levels of program involvement and the social and demographic factors necessary to produce outcomes of improved housing status and psychiatric functioning status. ^

Stress and coping in African American grandparents who are raising grandchildren

Over the years, substantial increases have occurred in the number of children being raised by their grandparents. A small number of studies have reported that grandparents raising grandchildren experience an increase in stress due to the demands of caregiving. The primary objectives of this study were to: (1) determine the degree of stress in African American (AA) grandparents who are raising their grandchildren age 12 years or younger; (2) identify the variables pertaining to the demographic characteristics of the grandparent caregiver and characteristics of the caregiving situation; (3) identify the coping strategies reported by AA grandparents; and (4) identify the relative importance of demographic and situational variables pertaining to the grandparent caregiver and caregiving situation, and coping strategies in influencing the degree of stress experienced. ^ An exploratory, descriptive, cross sectional design was used to study stress and coping in 50 AA grandparents who ranged in age from 44–87 years (M = 63.12). Data were collected via one personal interview in January/February 2001 at area senior centers or churches which the grandparent attends in Harris County, Texas. Five home interviews were done as requested by grandparents. ^ The instruments used to measure stress and coping were the Parenting Stress Index developed by Abidin and Folkman and Lazarus' Ways of Coping Questionnaire. Results of the study found that the grandparents is this study were a highly stressed group. Ninety-four percent of the sample demonstrated a “clinically significant” level of stress. Situational variables associated with lower stress levels were use of counseling, use of special school programs such as tutoring and special education, and increased length of caregiving (>5 years). ^ The most frequently used coping strategies overall were seeking social support and positive reappraisal. Six coping strategies were significantly correlated to lower reported stress: positive reappraisal, accepting responsibility, confrontive coping, self-control, planful problem solving, and distancing. ^ The findings from this study have limited generalizability. Nonetheless, this study was useful in adding to the limited amount of literature on AA grandparents who are rearing their grandchildren. The results clearly suggest the need for affordable counseling, support groups, education related to available resources, stress management, and interventions that increase the use of coping strategies found to reduce perceived stress. Future research should investigate levels of stress in AA and other grandparent caregivers longitudinally, as well as focus on stress and coping in grandparents raising grandchildren with special needs. ^

Study of length of stay in the cardiovascular intensive care unit

Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is among the most common operations performed in the United States and accounts for more resources expended in cardiovascular medicine than any other single procedure. CABG surgery patients initially recover in the Cardiovascular Intensive Care Unit (CVICU). The post-procedure CVICU length of stay (LOS) goal is two days or less. A longer ICU LOS is associated with a prolonged hospital LOS, poor health outcomes, greater use of limited resources, and increased medical costs. ^ Research has shown that experienced clinicians can predict LOS no better than chance. Current CABG surgery LOS risk models differ greatly in generalizability and ease of use in the clinical setting. A predictive model that identified modifiable pre- and intra-operative risk factors for CVICU LOS greater than two days could have major public health implications as modification of these identified factors could decrease CVICU LOS and potentially minimize morbidity and mortality, optimize use of limited health care resources, and decrease medical costs. ^ The primary aim of this study was to identify modifiable pre-and intra-operative predictors of CVICU LOS greater than two days for CABG surgery patients with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). A secondary aim was to build a probability equation for CVICU LOS greater than two days. Data were extracted from 416 medical records of CABG surgery patients with CPB, 50 to 80 years of age, recovered in the CVICU of a large teaching, referral hospital in southeastern Texas, during the calendar year 2004 and the first quarter of 2005. Exclusion criteria included Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) 106, CABG surgery without CPB, CABG surgery with other procedures, and operative deaths. The data were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression for an alpha=0.05, power=0.80, and correlation=0.26. ^ This study found age, history of peripheral arterial disease, and total operative time equal to and greater than four hours to be independent predictors of CVICU LOS greater than two days. The probability of CVICU LOS greater than two days can be calculated by the following equation: -2.872941 +.0323081 (age in years) + .8177223 (history of peripheral arterial disease) + .70379 (operative time). ^

Systematic review of worksite-based behavior change programs that target metabolic syndrome risk factors

Approximately one-third of US adults have metabolic syndrome, the clustering of cardiovascular risk factors that include hypertension, abdominal adiposity, elevated fasting glucose, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol and elevated triglyceride levels. While the definition of metabolic syndrome continues to be much debated among leading health research organizations, the fact is that individuals with metabolic syndrome have an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. A recent report by the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation found that the US spent $2.2 trillion (16.2% of the Gross Domestic Product) on healthcare in 2007 and cited that among other factors, chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, are large contributors to this growing national expenditure. Bearing a substantial portion of this cost are employers, the leading providers of health insurance. In lieu of this, many employers have begun implementing health promotion efforts to counteract these rising costs. However, evidence-based practices, uniform guidelines and policy do not exist for this setting in regard to the prevention of metabolic syndrome risk factors as defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III). Therefore, the aim of this review was to determine the effects of worksite-based behavior change programs on reducing the risk factors for metabolic syndrome in adults. Using relevant search terms, OVID MEDLINE was used to search the peer-reviewed literature published since 1998, resulting in 23 articles meeting the inclusion criteria for the review. The American Dietetic Association's Evidence Analysis Process was used to abstract data from selected articles, assess the quality of each study, compile the evidence, develop a summarized conclusion, and assign a grade based upon the strength of supporting evidence. The results revealed that participating in a worksite-based behavior change program may be associated in one or more improved metabolic syndrome risk factors. Programs that delivered a higher dose (>22 hours), in a shorter duration (<2 years) using two or more behavior-change strategies were associated with more metabolic risk factors being positively impacted. A Conclusion Grade of III was obtained for the evidence, indicating that studies were of weak design or results were inconclusive due to inadequate sample sizes, bias and lack of generalizability. These results provide some support for the continued use of worksite-based health promotion and further research is needed to determine if multi-strategy, intense behavior change programs targeting multiple risk factors are able to sustain health improvements in the long-term.^

The role of workplace absence as an organizational mechanism in predicting employee alcohol and drug disorders

Background. EAP programs for airline pilots in companies with a well developed recovery management program are known to reduce pilot absenteeism following treatment. Given the costs and safety consequences to society, it is important to identify pilots who may be experiencing an AOD disorder to get them into treatment. ^ Hypotheses. This study investigated the predictive power of workplace absenteeism in identifying alcohol or drug disorders (AOD). The first hypothesis was that higher absenteeism in a 12-month period is associated with higher risk that an employee is experiencing AOD. The second hypothesis was that AOD treatment would reduce subsequent absence rates and the costs of replacing pilots on missed flights. ^ Methods. A case control design using eight years (time period) of monthly archival absence data (53,000 pay records) was conducted with a sample of (N = 76) employees having an AOD diagnosis (cases) matched 1:4 with (N = 304) non-diagnosed employees (controls) of the same profession and company (male commercial airline pilots). Cases and controls were matched on the variables age, rank and date of hire. Absence rate was defined as sick time hours used over the sum of the minimum guarantee pay hours annualized using the months the pilot worked for the year. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine if absence predicts employees experiencing an AOD disorder, starting 3 years prior to the cases receiving the AOD diagnosis. A repeated measures ANOVA, t tests and rate ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) were conducted to determine differences between cases and controls in absence usage for 3 years pre and 5 years post treatment. Mean replacement costs were calculated for sick leave usage 3 years pre and 5 years post treatment to estimate the cost of sick leave from the perspective of the company. ^ Results. Sick leave, as measured by absence rate, predicted the risk of being diagnosed with an AOD disorder (OR 1.10, 95% CI = 1.06, 1.15) during the 12 months prior to receiving the diagnosis. Mean absence rates for diagnosed employees increased over the three years before treatment, particularly in the year before treatment, whereas the controls’ did not (three years, x = 6.80 vs. 5.52; two years, x = 7.81 vs. 6.30, and one year, x = 11.00cases vs. 5.51controls. In the first year post treatment compared to the year prior to treatment, rate ratios indicated a significant (60%) post treatment reduction in absence rates (OR = 0.40, CI = 0.28, 0.57). Absence rates for cases remained lower than controls for the first three years after completion of treatment. Upon discharge from the FAA and company’s three year AOD monitoring program, case’s absence rates increased slightly during the fourth year (controls, x = 0.09, SD = 0.14, cases, x = 0.12, SD = 0.21). However, the following year, their mean absence rates were again below those of the controls (controls, x = 0.08, SD = 0.12, cases, x¯ = 0.06, SD = 0.07). Significant reductions in costs associated with replacing pilots calling in sick, were found to be 60% less, between the year of diagnosis for the cases and the first year after returning to work. A reduction in replacement costs continued over the next two years for the treated employees. ^ Conclusions. This research demonstrates the potential for workplace absences as an active organizational surveillance mechanism to assist managers and supervisors in identifying employees who may be experiencing or at risk of experiencing an alcohol/drug disorder. Currently, many workplaces use only performance problems and ignore the employee’s absence record. A referral to an EAP or alcohol/drug evaluation based on the employee’s absence/sick leave record as incorporated into company policy can provide another useful indicator that may also carry less stigma, thus reducing barriers to seeking help. This research also confirms two conclusions heretofore based only on cross-sectional studies: (1) higher absence rates are associated with employees experiencing an AOD disorder; (2) treatment is associated with lower costs for replacing absent pilots. Due to the uniqueness of the employee population studied (commercial airline pilots) and the organizational documentation of absence, the generalizability of this study to other professions and occupations should be considered limited. ^ Transition to Practice. The odds ratios for the relationship between absence rates and an AOD diagnosis are precise; the OR for year of diagnosis indicates the likelihood of being diagnosed increases 10% for every hour change in sick leave taken. In practice, however, a pilot uses approximately 20 hours of sick leave for one trip, because the replacement will have to be paid the guaranteed minimum of 20 hour. Thus, the rate based on hourly changes is precise but not practical. ^ To provide the organization with practical recommendations the yearly mean absence rates were used. A pilot flies on average, 90 hours a month, 1080 annually. Cases used almost twice the mean rate of sick time the year prior to diagnosis (T-1) compared to controls (cases, x = .11, controls, x = .06). Cases are expected to use on average 119 hours annually (total annual hours*mean annual absence rate), while controls will use 60 hours. The cases’ 60 hours could translate to 3 trips of 20 hours each. Management could use a standard of 80 hours or more of sick time claimed in a year as the threshold for unacceptable absence, a 25% increase over the controls (a cost to the company of approximately of $4000). At the 80-hour mark, the Chief Pilot would be able to call the pilot in for a routine check as to the nature of the pilot’s excessive absence. This management action would be based on a company standard, rather than a behavioral or performance issue. Using absence data in this fashion would make it an active surveillance mechanism. ^

Use of tabletop exercises for disaster preparedness training

Background. In public health preparedness, disaster preparedness refers to the strategic planning of responses to all types of disasters. Preparation and training for disaster response can be conducted using different teaching modalities, ranging from discussion-based programs such as seminars, drills and tabletop exercises to more complex operation-based programs such as functional exercises and full-scale exercises. Each method of instruction has its advantages and disadvantages. Tabletop exercises are facilitated discussions designed to evaluate programs, policies, and procedures; they are usually conducted in a classroom, often with tabletop props (e.g. models, maps or diagrams). ^ Objective. The overall goal of this project was to determine whether tabletop exercises are effective teaching modalities for disaster preparedness, with an emphasis on intentional chemical exposure. ^ Method. The target audience for the exercise was the Medical Reserve Brigade of the Texas State Guard, a group of volunteer healthcare providers and first responders who prepare for response to local disasters. A new tabletop exercise was designed to provide information on the complex, interrelated organizations within the national disaster preparedness program that this group would interact with in the event of a local disaster. This educational intervention consisted of a four hour multipart program that included a pretest of knowledge, lecture series, an interactive group discussion using a mock disaster scenario, a posttest of knowledge, and a course evaluation. ^ Results. Approximately 40 volunteers attended the intervention session; roughly half (n=21) had previously participated in a full scale drill. There was an 11% improvement in fund of knowledge between the pre- and post-test scores (p=0.002). Overall, the tabletop exercise was well received by those with and without prior training, with no significant differences found between these two groups in terms of relevance and appropriateness of content. However, the separate components of the tabletop exercise were variably effective, as gauged by written text comments on the questionnaire. ^ Conclusions. Tabletop exercises can be a useful training modality in disaster preparedness, as evidenced by improvement in knowledge and qualitative feedback on its value. Future offerings could incorporate recordings of participant responses during the drill, so that better feedback can be provided to them. Additional research should be conducted, using the same or similar design, in different populations that are stakeholders in disaster preparedness, so that the generalizability of these findings can be determined.^

Get ur 60: A social marketing campaign to promote and facilitate physical activity among Central Texas middle school students

If allowed to continue unabated, the obesity epidemic may lead to the first decline in life expectancy in the developed world (Olshansky et al., 2005). Similar to the relationship between smoking habits in youth and adulthood, obesogenic dietary and physical activity habits in childhood may persist into adulthood (Kelder et al., 2002). Teaching children how to establish healthy eating habits and activity levels, as well as providing them the necessary resources to internalize and maintain these behaviors, may be the key to curbing this epidemic.^ A school-based obesity prevention approach is advantageous for many reasons including exposure to large captive audiences, reduced costs of sustainability and long-term maintenance, and generalizability of models and results across multiple populations. The effectiveness of school-based programs has been researched over the past 20 years, with promising results.^ Social marketing is a program-planning process that “facilitates the acceptance, rejection, modification, abandonment, or maintenance of particular behaviors” (Grier & Bryant, 2005). Social marketing has been shown to be effective in a variety of public health applications including improving diet, increasing physical activity, and preventing substance abuse. It is hypothesized that social marketing could further enhance the effectiveness of the Coordinated Approach To Child Health (CATCH) Central Texas Middle School Project, a school-based obesity prevention program.^ The development, implementation, and initial evaluation of the get ur 60 campaign, to promote the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended sixty minutes of daily activity, is described in this paper. Various components of the get ur 60 campaign were assessed to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign during the first semester of implementation. At the end of the spring semester focus groups were held to collect student reactions to the first semester of the get ur 60 campaign.^ The initial results from the first semester of get ur 60 have demonstrated that the campaign as designed was feasible to implement, accepted at all intervention schools, and resulted in a measure of success. ^

Relationship between parental feeding practices and weight status in a lower socioeconomic pre-school population

High prevalence of overweight and obesity among preschool children in the low income population is consistently documented in research with one of every seven low-income, preschool-aged children classified as obese. Parental feeding practices have the potential to be contributing factors to the obesity epidemic. However, the impact of parental feeding practices on obesity in preschool age children has not been well explored. The purpose of this study was to determine relationships between the parental feeding practices of using dessert, sweets or candy as a reward for finishing foods, restricting dessert if the child does not finish their plate at dinner, asking the child to consume everything on their plate at dinner, and having family dinners to obesity in low income, preschool age children.^ A cross-sectional secondary data analysis was completed using the STATA 11 statistical software. Descriptive statistics were completed to summarize demographic and BMI data of participants, as well as parental feeding behavior variables. Pearson’s correlation was implemented to determine a correlation between parental feeding behavior variables and BMI z scores. Predictive relationships between the variables were explored through multivariable linear regression analysis. Regression analyses were also completed factoring in the confounders of gender, age, and ethnicity.^ Results revealed (1) no significant correlations or predictive trends between the use of rewards, forced consumption, or family dinner and BMI in low income preschool age children, and (2) a significant negative correlation and predictive trend between restriction of desserts and BMI in low income preschool age children. Since the analysis supported the null hypothesis for the practices of reward use, forced consumption, and family dinner, these practices are not considered risk factors for obese level BMIs. The inverse association found for practice of restriction and BMI suggests it is unnecessary to discourage parents from using restriction. Limitations of the study included the sample size, reliability of the answers provided on the Healthy Home Survey by participant guardians, and generalizability of the sample to the larger population.^

It's your game, keep it real. Sexual education study

Purpose: This study translated and adapted the It's Your Game, Keep It Real study currently being implemented with middle school youth in Southeast Texas for a middle school population in rural western Honduras. The study tested the effects of a sexual health education program focused on human immunodeficiency virus, sexually transmitted infections, and pregnancy prevention. We hypothesized that the number of adolescents in the intervention group who initiate sexual activity will reduce in comparison to the control group and there will be an increase consistent condom use in sexually active adolescents in the intervention group. ^ Methods: The target population included Spanish-speaking Hispanic middle school students from a small, semi-urban city in western Honduras. One school was randomly selected to receive the intervention and one to the comparison condition. The intervention curriculum consisted of 10 seventh-grade lessons that included individual and group classroom-based activities and personal journaling. Follow-up surveys were completed three months after the last lesson with 146 students (79.3% of the defined cohort). ^ Results: In the comparison condition, 21.4% of students initiated sex by the post-test follow-up three months after the intervention compared to 7.8% in the intervention condition. ^ Conclusions: A multi-component, curriculum-based program that is theory driven and culturally relevant can increase knowledge about STIs and HIV, increase self-confidence amongst middle school students, and develop communication skills amongst friends and partners. Further research must be conducted to assess delay in sexual initiation and the generalizability of these results.^

Comparison of machine learning approaches and statistical methods for estimation of airborne chemical exposures

Accurate quantitative estimation of exposure using retrospective data has been one of the most challenging tasks in the exposure assessment field. To improve these estimates, some models have been developed using published exposure databases with their corresponding exposure determinants. These models are designed to be applied to reported exposure determinants obtained from study subjects or exposure levels assigned by an industrial hygienist, so quantitative exposure estimates can be obtained. ^ In an effort to improve the prediction accuracy and generalizability of these models, and taking into account that the limitations encountered in previous studies might be due to limitations in the applicability of traditional statistical methods and concepts, the use of computer science- derived data analysis methods, predominantly machine learning approaches, were proposed and explored in this study. ^ The goal of this study was to develop a set of models using decision trees/ensemble and neural networks methods to predict occupational outcomes based on literature-derived databases, and compare, using cross-validation and data splitting techniques, the resulting prediction capacity to that of traditional regression models. Two cases were addressed: the categorical case, where the exposure level was measured as an exposure rating following the American Industrial Hygiene Association guidelines and the continuous case, where the result of the exposure is expressed as a concentration value. Previously developed literature-based exposure databases for 1,1,1 trichloroethane, methylene dichloride and, trichloroethylene were used. ^ When compared to regression estimations, results showed better accuracy of decision trees/ensemble techniques for the categorical case while neural networks were better for estimation of continuous exposure values. Overrepresentation of classes and overfitting were the main causes for poor neural network performance and accuracy. Estimations based on literature-based databases using machine learning techniques might provide an advantage when they are applied to other methodologies that combine `expert inputs' with current exposure measurements, like the Bayesian Decision Analysis tool. The use of machine learning techniques to more accurately estimate exposures from literature-based exposure databases might represent the starting point for the independence from the expert judgment.^