SURVIVAL PREDICTION FOR BRAIN TUMOR PATIENTS USING GENE EXPRESSION DATA

Brain tumor is one of the most aggressive types of cancer in humans, with an estimated median survival time of 12 months and only 4% of the patients surviving more than 5 years after disease diagnosis. Until recently, brain tumor prognosis has been based only on clinical information such as tumor grade and patient age, but there are reports indicating that molecular profiling of gliomas can reveal subgroups of patients with distinct survival rates. We hypothesize that coupling molecular profiling of brain tumors with clinical information might improve predictions of patient survival time and, consequently, better guide future treatment decisions. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the general goal of this research is to build models for survival prediction of glioma patients using DNA molecular profiles (U133 Affymetrix gene expression microarrays) along with clinical information. First, a predictive Random Forest model is built for binary outcomes (i.e. short vs. long-term survival) and a small subset of genes whose expression values can be used to predict survival time is selected. Following, a new statistical methodology is developed for predicting time-to-death outcomes using Bayesian ensemble trees. Due to a large heterogeneity observed within prognostic classes obtained by the Random Forest model, prediction can be improved by relating time-to-death with gene expression profile directly. We propose a Bayesian ensemble model for survival prediction which is appropriate for high-dimensional data such as gene expression data. Our approach is based on the ensemble "sum-of-trees" model which is flexible to incorporate additive and interaction effects between genes. We specify a fully Bayesian hierarchical approach and illustrate our methodology for the CPH, Weibull, and AFT survival models. We overcome the lack of conjugacy using a latent variable formulation to model the covariate effects which decreases computation time for model fitting. Also, our proposed models provides a model-free way to select important predictive prognostic markers based on controlling false discovery rates. We compare the performance of our methods with baseline reference survival methods and apply our methodology to an unpublished data set of brain tumor survival times and gene expression data, selecting genes potentially related to the development of the disease under study. A closing discussion compares results obtained by Random Forest and Bayesian ensemble methods under the biological/clinical perspectives and highlights the statistical advantages and disadvantages of the new methodology in the context of DNA microarray data analysis.

PREDICTION OF DNA METHYLATION BASED ON GENOMIC ARCHITECTURE AND APPLICATIONS OF POSITIONAL WEIGHT MATRICES

Gene silencing due to epigenetic mechanisms shows evidence of significant contributions to cancer development. We hypothesis that the genetic architecture based on retrotransposon elements surrounding the transcription start site, plays an important role in the suppression and promotion of DNA methylation. In our investigation we found a high rate of SINE and LINEs retrotransposon elements near the transcription start site of unmethylated genes when compared to methylated genes. The presence of these elements were positively associated with promoter methylation, contrary to logical expectations, due to the malicious effects of retrotransposon elements which insert themselves randomly into the genome causing possible loss of gene function. In our genome wide analysis of human genes, results suggested that 22% of the genes in cancer were predicted to be methylation-prone; in cancer these genes are generally down-regulated and function in the development process. In summary, our investigation validated our hypothesis and showed that these widespread genomic elements in cancer are highly associated with promoter DNA methylation and may further participate in influencing epigenetic regulation.

Systems Biology Approaches to Probe Gene Regulation in Bacteria

Mechanisms that allow pathogens to colonize the host are not the product of isolated genes, but instead emerge from the concerted operation of regulatory networks. Therefore, identifying components and the systemic behavior of networks is necessary to a better understanding of gene regulation and pathogenesis. To this end, I have developed systems biology approaches to study transcriptional and post-transcriptional gene regulation in bacteria, with an emphasis in the human pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). First, I developed a network response method to identify parts of the Mtb global transcriptional regulatory network utilized by the pathogen to counteract phagosomal stresses and survive within resting macrophages. As a result, the method unveiled transcriptional regulators and associated regulons utilized by Mtb to establish a successful infection of macrophages throughout the first 14 days of infection. Additionally, this network-based analysis identified the production of Fe-S proteins coupled to lipid metabolism through the alkane hydroxylase complex as a possible strategy employed by Mtb to survive in the host. Second, I developed a network inference method to infer the small non-coding RNA (sRNA) regulatory network in Mtb. The method identifies sRNA-mRNA interactions by integrating a priori knowledge of possible binding sites with structure-driven identification of binding sites. The reconstructed network was useful to predict functional roles for the multitude of sRNAs recently discovered in the pathogen, being that several sRNAs were postulated to be involved in virulence-related processes. Finally, I applied a combined experimental and computational approach to study post-transcriptional repression mediated by small non-coding RNAs in bacteria. Specifically, a probabilistic ranking methodology termed rank-conciliation was developed to infer sRNA-mRNA interactions based on multiple types of data. The method was shown to improve target prediction in Escherichia coli, and therefore is useful to prioritize candidate targets for experimental validation.