A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

Temporal analysis of PI-3kinase and MAPK signal transduction during skeletal muscle overload

Skeletal muscles can adapt to increased mechanical forces (or loading) by increasing the size and strength of the muscle. Knowledge of the molecular mechanisms by which muscle responds to increased loading may lead to the discovery of novel treatment strategies for muscle wasting and frailty. The objective of this research was to examine the temporal associations between the activation of specific signaling pathway intermediates and their potential upstream regulator(s) in response to increased muscle loading. Previous work has demonstrated that focal adhesion kinase (FAK) activity is increased in overloaded hypertrophying skeletal muscle. Thus FAK is a candidate for transducing the loading stimulus in skeletal muscle, potentially by activating phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) and members of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) family. However, it was unknown if muscle overload would result in activation of PI3K or the MAPKs. Thus, this work seeks to characterized the temporal response of (1) MAPK phosphorylation (including Erk 2, p38 MAPK and JNK), (2) PI3K activity, and (3) FAK tyrosine phosphorylation in response to 24 hours of compensatory overload in the rat soleus and plantaris muscles. In both muscles, overload resulted in transient Increases in the phosphorylation state of Erk2 and JNK, which peaked within the first hour of overload and returned to baseline thereafter. In contrast, p38 MAPK phosphorylation remained elevated throughout the entire 24-hour overload period. Moreover, overload increased PI3K activity only, in the plantaris and only at 12 hours. Moreover, 24 hours of overload induced a significant increase in total protein content in the plantaris but not the soleus. Thus an increase in total muscle protein content within the 24-hour loading period was observed only in muscle exhibiting increased PI3K activity. Surprisingly, FAK tyrosine phosphorylation was not increased during the overload period in either muscle, indicating that PI3K activation and increased MAPK phosphorylation were independent of increased FAK tyrosine phosphorylation. In summary, increased PI3K activity and sustained elevation of p38 MAPK phosphorylation were associated with muscle overload, identifying these pathways as potential mediators of the early hypertrophic response to skeletal muscle overload. This suggests that stimuli or mechanisms that activate these pathways may reduce/minimize muscle wasting and frailty. ^

Survival analysis of longevity in siblings

Do siblings of centenarians tend to have longer life spans? To answer this question, life spans of 184 siblings for 42 centenarians have been evaluated. Two important questions have been addressed in analyzing the sibling data. First, a standard needs to be established, to which the life spans of 184 siblings are compared. In this report, an external reference population is constructed from the U.S. life tables. Its estimated mortality rates are treated as baseline hazards from which the relative mortality of the siblings are estimated. Second, the standard survival models which assume independent observations are invalid when correlation within family exists, underestimating the true variance. Methods that allow correlations are illustrated by three different methods. First, the cumulative relative excess mortality between siblings and their comparison group is calculated and used as an effective graphic tool, along with the Product Limit estimator of the survival function. The variance estimator of the cumulative relative excess mortality is adjusted for the potential within family correlation using Taylor linearization approach. Second, approaches that adjust for the inflated variance are examined. They are adjusted one-sample log-rank test using design effect originally proposed by Rao and Scott in the correlated binomial or Poisson distribution setting and the robust variance estimator derived from the log-likelihood function of a multiplicative model. Nether of these two approaches provide correlation estimate within families, but the comparison with the comparison with the standard remains valid under dependence. Last, using the frailty model concept, the multiplicative model, where the baseline hazards are known, is extended by adding a random frailty term that is based on the positive stable or the gamma distribution. Comparisons between the two frailty distributions are performed by simulation. Based on the results from various approaches, it is concluded that the siblings of centenarians had significant lower mortality rates as compared to their cohorts. The frailty models also indicate significant correlations between the life spans of the siblings. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Modulation of replicative senescence of skeletal muscle satellite cells by insulin -like growth factor-I (IGF-I)

Growth and regeneration of postnatal skeletal muscle requires a population of mononuclear myogenic cells, called satellite cells to add/replace myonuclei, which are postmitotic. Wedged between the sarcolemma and the basal lamina of the skeletal muscle fiber, these cells function as the stem cells of mature muscle fibers. Like other normal diploid cells, satellite cells undergo cellular senescence. Investigations of aging in both rodents and humans have shown that satellite cell self-renewal capacity decreases with advanced age. As a consequence, this could be a potential reason for the characteristically observed age-associated loss in skeletal muscle mass (sarcopenia). This provided the rationale that any intervention that can further increase the proliferative capacity of these cells should potentially be able to either delay, or even prevent sarcopenia. ^ Using clonogenicity assays to determine a cell's proliferation potential, these studies have shown that IGF-I enhances the doubling potential of satellite cells from aged rodents. Using a transgenic model, where the mice express the IGF-I transgene specifically in their striated muscles, some of the underlying biochemical mechanisms for the observed increase in replicative life span were delineated. These studies have revealed that IGF-I activates the PI3/Akt pathway to mediate downregulation of p27KIP1, which consequently is associated with an increase in cyclin E-cdk2 kinase activity, phosphorylation of pRb, and upregulation of cyclin A protein. However, the beneficial effects of IGF-I on satellite cell proliferative potential appears to be limited as chronic overexpression of IGF-I in skeletal muscles did not protect against sarcopenia in 18-mo old mice, and was associated with an exhaustion of satellite cell replicative reserves. ^ These results have shown that replicative senescence can be modulated by environmental factors using skeletal muscle satellite cells as a model system. A better understanding of the molecular basis for enhancement of proliferative capacity by IGF-I will provide a rational basis for developing more effective counter-measures against physical frailty. However, the implications of these studies are that these beneficial effects of enhanced proliferative potential by IGF-I may only be over a short-term period, and other alternative approaches may need to be considered. ^