Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

MEASURING THE EFFECT OF ILLNESS ON THE EXPECTED REMAINING SERVICE TIME FOR THE ACTIVE DUTY ARMY: A LIFE TABLE APPROACH

A life table methodology was developed which estimates the expected remaining Army service time and the expected remaining Army sick time by years of service for the United States Army population. A measure of illness impact was defined as the ratio of expected remaining Army sick time to the expected remaining Army service time. The variances of the resulting estimators were developed on the basis of current data. The theory of partial and complete competing risks was considered for each type of decrement (death, administrative separation, and medical separation) and for the causes of sick time.^ The methodology was applied to world-wide U.S. Army data for calendar year 1978. A total of 669,493 enlisted personnel and 97,704 officers were reported on active duty as of 30 September 1978. During calendar year 1978, the Army Medical Department reported 114,647 inpatient discharges and 1,767,146 sick days. Although the methodology is completely general with respect to the definition of sick time, only sick time associated with an inpatient episode was considered in this study.^ Since the temporal measure was years of Army service, an age-adjusting process was applied to the life tables for comparative purposes. Analyses were conducted by rank (enlisted and officer), race and sex, and were based on the ratio of expected remaining Army sick time to expected remaining Army service time. Seventeen major diagnostic groups, classified by the Eighth Revision, International Classification of Diseases, Adapted for Use In The United States, were ranked according to their cumulative (across years of service) contribution to expected remaining sick time.^ The study results indicated that enlisted personnel tend to have more expected hospital-associated sick time relative to their expected Army service time than officers. Non-white officers generally have more expected sick time relative to their expected Army service time than white officers. This racial differential was not supported within the enlisted population. Females tend to have more expected sick time relative to their expected Army service time than males. This tendency remained after diagnostic groups 580-629 (Genitourinary System) and 630-678 (Pregnancy and Childbirth) were removed. Problems associated with the circulatory system, digestive system and musculoskeletal system were among the three leading causes of cumulative sick time across years of service. ^

Comparing Campus Discipline Rates: A Multivariate Approach for Identifying Schools with Significantly Different than Expected Exclusionary Discipline Rates

Campus behavior management is important for ensuring classroom order and promoting positive academic outcomes. Previous studies have shown the importance of individual student and campus personnel characteristics and campus context for explaining campus discipline rates (e.g., rates of suspension and expulsion). Assessing campus discipline rates, while controlling for these individual and campus characteristics, is important for the monitoring, evaluation, and intervention role of policymakers as well as state and federal level education agencies. Systems or metrics exist that measure other student outcomes (i.e., academic performance) with controls for individual and campus characteristics, but none exist that monitor these differences for discipline rates across campuses. In this paper, we use a multivariate model to analyze a longitudinal, statewide dataset for all secondary students in Texas from 2000 to 2008 in order to examine how campus discipline rates differ across schools with statistically similar students, teachers, and campus characteristics. The findings are important for understanding that some schools with similar characteristics have significantly different exclusionary discipline rates, and they are important for informing policy and agency level decision-making. The methodology described can easily be used by monitoring agencies as well as local school districts.

An analysis of the revenue policy -making process of the Texas Legislature

The purpose of this dissertation was to develop a conceptual framework which can be used to account for policy decisions made by the House Ways and Means Committee (HW&MC) of the Texas House of Representatives. This analysis will examine the actions of the committee over a ten-year period with the goal of explaining and predicting the success of failure of certain efforts to raise revenue.^ The basis framework for modelling the revenue decision-making process includes three major components--the decision alternatives, the external factors and two competing contingency theories. The decision alternatives encompass the particular options available to increase tax revenue. The options were classified as non-innovative or innovative. The non-innovative options included the sales, franchise, property and severance taxes. The innovative options were principally the personal and corporate income taxes.^ The external factors included political and economic constraints that affected the actions of the HW&MC. Several key political constraints on committee decision-making were addressed--including public attitudes, interest groups, political party strength and tradition and precedents. The economic constraints that affected revenue decisions included court mandates, federal mandates and the fiscal condition of the nation and the state.^ The third component of the revenue decision-making framework included two alternative contingency theories. The first alternative theory postulated that the committee structure, including the individual member roles and the overall committee style, resulted in distinctive revenue decisions. This theory will be favored if evidence points to the committee acting autonomously with less concern for the policies of the Speaker of the House. The Speaker assignment theory, postulated that the assignment of committee members shaped or changed the course of committee decision-making. This theory will be favored if there was evidence that the committee was strictly a vehicle for the Speaker to institute his preferred tax policies.^ The ultimate goal of this analysis is to develop an explanation for legislative decision-making about tax policy. This explanation will be based on the linkages across various tax options, political and economic constraints, member roles and committee style and the patterns of committee assignment. ^