An Extended Hierarchical Task Analysis for Error Prediction in Medical Devices

This paper introduces an extended hierarchical task analysis (HTA) methodology devised to evaluate and compare user interfaces on volumetric infusion pumps. The pumps were studied along the dimensions of overall usability and propensity for generating human error. With HTA as our framework, we analyzed six pumps on a variety of common tasks using Norman’s Action theory. The introduced method of evaluation divides the problem space between the external world of the device interface and the user’s internal cognitive world, allowing for predictions of potential user errors at the human-device level. In this paper, one detailed analysis is provided as an example, comparing two different pumps on two separate tasks. The results demonstrate the inherent variation, often the cause of usage errors, found with infusion pumps being used in hospitals today. The reported methodology is a useful tool for evaluating human performance and predicting potential user errors with infusion pumps and other simple medical devices.

A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT AND DRUG-DRUG INTERACTION ANALYSIS: APPLICATION TO IN VITRO STUDIES

The considerable search for synergistic agents in cancer research is motivated by the therapeutic benefits achieved by combining anti-cancer agents. Synergistic agents make it possible to reduce dosage while maintaining or enhancing a desired effect. Other favorable outcomes of synergistic agents include reduction in toxicity and minimizing or delaying drug resistance. Dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis play an important part in the drug discovery process, however analysis are often poorly done. This dissertation is an effort to notably improve dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis. The most commonly used method in published analysis is the Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method (Chou and Talalay, 1984). The Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method leads to inefficiency by ignoring important sources of variation inherent in dose-response data and discarding data points that do not fit the Median-Effect Principle. Previous work has shown that the conventional method yields a high rate of false positives (Boik, Boik, Newman, 2008; Hennessey, Rosner, Bast, Chen, 2010) and, in some cases, low power to detect synergy. There is a great need for improving the current methodology. We developed a Bayesian framework for dose-response modeling and drug-drug interaction analysis. First, we developed a hierarchical meta-regression dose-response model that accounts for various sources of variation and uncertainty and allows one to incorporate knowledge from prior studies into the current analysis, thus offering a more efficient and reliable inference. Second, in the case that parametric dose-response models do not fit the data, we developed a practical and flexible nonparametric regression method for meta-analysis of independently repeated dose-response experiments. Third, and lastly, we developed a method, based on Loewe additivity that allows one to quantitatively assess interaction between two agents combined at a fixed dose ratio. The proposed method makes a comprehensive and honest account of uncertainty within drug interaction assessment. Extensive simulation studies show that the novel methodology improves the screening process of effective/synergistic agents and reduces the incidence of type I error. We consider an ovarian cancer cell line study that investigates the combined effect of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors in human ovarian cancer cell lines. The hypothesis is that the combination of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors will enhance antiproliferative activity in human ovarian cancer cell lines compared to treatment with each inhibitor alone. By applying the proposed Bayesian methodology, in vitro synergy was declared for DNA methylation inhibitor, 5-AZA-2'-deoxycytidine combined with one histone deacetylation inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or trichostatin A in the cell lines HEY and SKOV3. This suggests potential new epigenetic therapies in cell growth inhibition of ovarian cancer cells.

EVALUATION OF INTENSITY MODULATED RADIATION THERAPY (IMRT) DELIVERY ERROR DUE TO IMRT TREATMENT PLAN COMPLEXITY AND IMPROPERLY MATCHED DOSIMETRY DATA

Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is a technique that delivers a highly conformal dose distribution to a target volume while attempting to maximally spare the surrounding normal tissues. IMRT is a common treatment modality used for treating head and neck (H&N) cancers, and the presence of many critical structures in this region requires accurate treatment delivery. The Radiological Physics Center (RPC) acts as both a remote and on-site quality assurance agency that credentials institutions participating in clinical trials. To date, about 30% of all IMRT participants have failed the RPC’s remote audit using the IMRT H&N phantom. The purpose of this project is to evaluate possible causes of H&N IMRT delivery errors observed by the RPC, specifically IMRT treatment plan complexity and the use of improper dosimetry data from machines that were thought to be matched but in reality were not. Eight H&N IMRT plans with a range of complexity defined by total MU (1460-3466), number of segments (54-225), and modulation complexity scores (MCS) (0.181-0.609) were created in Pinnacle v.8m. These plans were delivered to the RPC’s H&N phantom on a single Varian Clinac. One of the IMRT plans (1851 MU, 88 segments, and MCS=0.469) was equivalent to the median H&N plan from 130 previous RPC H&N phantom irradiations. This average IMRT plan was also delivered on four matched Varian Clinac machines and the dose distribution calculated using a different 6MV beam model. Radiochromic film and TLD within the phantom were used to analyze the dose profiles and absolute doses, respectively. The measured and calculated were compared to evaluate the dosimetric accuracy. All deliveries met the RPC acceptance criteria of ±7% absolute dose difference and 4 mm distance-to-agreement (DTA). Additionally, gamma index analysis was performed for all deliveries using a ±7%/4mm and ±5%/3mm criteria. Increasing the treatment plan complexity by varying the MU, number of segments, or varying the MCS resulted in no clear trend toward an increase in dosimetric error determined by the absolute dose difference, DTA, or gamma index. Varying the delivery machines as well as the beam model (use of a Clinac 6EX 6MV beam model vs. Clinac 21EX 6MV model), also did not show any clear trend towards an increased dosimetric error using the same criteria indicated above.

Cost and power analysis of linkage disequilibrium methods for locating genes influencing quantitative traits in humans

Linkage disequilibrium methods can be used to find genes influencing quantitative trait variation in humans. Linkage disequilibrium methods can require smaller sample sizes than linkage equilibrium methods, such as the variance component approach to find loci with a specific effect size. The increase in power is at the expense of requiring more markers to be typed to scan the entire genome. This thesis compares different linkage disequilibrium methods to determine which factors influence the power to detect disequilibrium. The costs of disequilibrium and equilibrium tests were compared to determine whether the savings in phenotyping costs when using disequilibrium methods outweigh the additional genotyping costs.^ Nine linkage disequilibrium tests were examined by simulation. Five tests involve selecting isolated unrelated individuals while four involved the selection of parent child trios (TDT). All nine tests were found to be able to identify disequilibrium with the correct significance level in Hardy-Weinberg populations. Increasing linked genetic variance and trait allele frequency were found to increase the power to detect disequilibrium, while increasing the number of generations and distance between marker and trait loci decreased the power to detect disequilibrium. Discordant sampling was used for several of the tests. It was found that the more stringent the sampling, the greater the power to detect disequilibrium in a sample of given size. The power to detect disequilibrium was not affected by the presence of polygenic effects.^ When the trait locus had more than two trait alleles, the power of the tests maximized to less than one. For the simulation methods used here, when there were more than two-trait alleles there was a probability equal to 1-heterozygosity of the marker locus that both trait alleles were in disequilibrium with the same marker allele, resulting in the marker being uninformative for disequilibrium.^ The five tests using isolated unrelated individuals were found to have excess error rates when there was disequilibrium due to population admixture. Increased error rates also resulted from increased unlinked major gene effects, discordant trait allele frequency, and increased disequilibrium. Polygenic effects did not affect the error rates. The TDT, Transmission Disequilibrium Test, based tests were not liable to any increase in error rates.^ For all sample ascertainment costs, for recent mutations ($<$100 generations) linkage disequilibrium tests were less expensive than the variance component test to carry out. Candidate gene scans saved even more money. The use of recently admixed populations also decreased the cost of performing a linkage disequilibrium test. ^

Design and analysis for three level hierarchical structures with count response

In numerous intervention studies and education field trials, random assignment to treatment occurs in clusters rather than at the level of observation. This departure of random assignment of units may be due to logistics, political feasibility, or ecological validity. Data within the same cluster or grouping are often correlated. Application of traditional regression techniques, which assume independence between observations, to clustered data produce consistent parameter estimates. However such estimators are often inefficient as compared to methods which incorporate the clustered nature of the data into the estimation procedure (Neuhaus 1993).1 Multilevel models, also known as random effects or random components models, can be used to account for the clustering of data by estimating higher level, or group, as well as lower level, or individual variation. Designing a study, in which the unit of observation is nested within higher level groupings, requires the determination of sample sizes at each level. This study investigates the design and analysis of various sampling strategies for a 3-level repeated measures design on the parameter estimates when the outcome variable of interest follows a Poisson distribution. ^ Results study suggest that second order PQL estimation produces the least biased estimates in the 3-level multilevel Poisson model followed by first order PQL and then second and first order MQL. The MQL estimates of both fixed and random parameters are generally satisfactory when the level 2 and level 3 variation is less than 0.10. However, as the higher level error variance increases, the MQL estimates become increasingly biased. If convergence of the estimation algorithm is not obtained by PQL procedure and higher level error variance is large, the estimates may be significantly biased. In this case bias correction techniques such as bootstrapping should be considered as an alternative procedure. For larger sample sizes, those structures with 20 or more units sampled at levels with normally distributed random errors produced more stable estimates with less sampling variance than structures with an increased number of level 1 units. For small sample sizes, sampling fewer units at the level with Poisson variation produces less sampling variation, however this criterion is no longer important when sample sizes are large. ^ 1Neuhaus J (1993). “Estimation efficiency and Tests of Covariate Effects with Clustered Binary Data”. Biometrics , 49, 989–996^

Evaluation of the accuracy of multilevel analysis parameter estimates for intra-cluster correlation in correlated binary data

Many studies in biostatistics deal with binary data. Some of these studies involve correlated observations, which can complicate the analysis of the resulting data. Studies of this kind typically arise when a high degree of commonality exists between test subjects. If there exists a natural hierarchy in the data, multilevel analysis is an appropriate tool for the analysis. Two examples are the measurements on identical twins, or the study of symmetrical organs or appendages such as in the case of ophthalmic studies. Although this type of matching appears ideal for the purposes of comparison, analysis of the resulting data while ignoring the effect of intra-cluster correlation has been shown to produce biased results.^ This paper will explore the use of multilevel modeling of simulated binary data with predetermined levels of correlation. Data will be generated using the Beta-Binomial method with varying degrees of correlation between the lower level observations. The data will be analyzed using the multilevel software package MlwiN (Woodhouse, et al, 1995). Comparisons between the specified intra-cluster correlation of these data and the estimated correlations, using multilevel analysis, will be used to examine the accuracy of this technique in analyzing this type of data. ^

Multilevel analysis for a longitudinal clinical trial

This study applies the multilevel analysis technique to longitudinal data of a large clinical trial. The technique accounts for the correlation at different levels when modeling repeated blood pressure measurements taken throughout the trial. This modeling allows for closer inspection of the remaining correlation and non-homogeneity of variance in the data. Three methods of modeling the correlation were compared. ^

Multiple imputation for missing continuous and dichotomous data: The effects of patterns of missingness and variable correlations on type I error with small samples

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of predictor variable correlations and patterns of missingness with dichotomous and/or continuous data in small samples when missing data is multiply imputed. Missing data of predictor variables is multiply imputed under three different multivariate models: the multivariate normal model for continuous data, the multinomial model for dichotomous data and the general location model for mixed dichotomous and continuous data. Subsequent to the multiple imputation process, Type I error rates of the regression coefficients obtained with logistic regression analysis are estimated under various conditions of correlation structure, sample size, type of data and patterns of missing data. The distributional properties of average mean, variance and correlations among the predictor variables are assessed after the multiple imputation process. ^ For continuous predictor data under the multivariate normal model, Type I error rates are generally within the nominal values with samples of size n = 100. Smaller samples of size n = 50 resulted in more conservative estimates (i.e., lower than the nominal value). Correlation and variance estimates of the original data are retained after multiple imputation with less than 50% missing continuous predictor data. For dichotomous predictor data under the multinomial model, Type I error rates are generally conservative, which in part is due to the sparseness of the data. The correlation structure for the predictor variables is not well retained on multiply-imputed data from small samples with more than 50% missing data with this model. For mixed continuous and dichotomous predictor data, the results are similar to those found under the multivariate normal model for continuous data and under the multinomial model for dichotomous data. With all data types, a fully-observed variable included with variables subject to missingness in the multiple imputation process and subsequent statistical analysis provided liberal (larger than nominal values) Type I error rates under a specific pattern of missing data. It is suggested that future studies focus on the effects of multiple imputation in multivariate settings with more realistic data characteristics and a variety of multivariate analyses, assessing both Type I error and power. ^

Second, do less harm: The state of states' medical error reporting programs

Statement of the problem and public health significance. Hospitals were designed to be a safe haven and respite from disease and illness. However, a large body of evidence points to preventable errors in hospitals as the eighth leading cause of death among Americans. Twelve percent of Americans, or over 33.8 million people, are hospitalized each year. This population represents a significant portion of at risk citizens exposed to hospital medical errors. Since the number of annual deaths due to hospital medical errors is estimated to exceed 44,000, the magnitude of this tragedy makes it a significant public health problem. ^ Specific aims. The specific aims of this study were threefold. First, this study aimed to analyze the state of the states' mandatory hospital medical error reporting six years after the release of the influential IOM report, "To Err is Human." The second aim was to identify barriers to reporting of medical errors by hospital personnel. The third aim was to identify hospital safety measures implemented to reduce medical errors and enhance patient safety. ^ Methods. A descriptive, longitudinal, retrospective design was used to address the first stated objective. The study data came from the twenty-one states with mandatory hospital reporting programs which report aggregate hospital error data that is accessible to the public by way of states' websites. The data analysis included calculations of expected number of medical errors for each state according to IOM rates. Where possible, a comparison was made between state reported data and the calculated IOM expected number of errors. A literature review was performed to achieve the second study aim, identifying barriers to reporting medical errors. The final aim was accomplished by telephone interviews of principal patient safety/quality officers from five Texas hospitals with more than 700 beds. ^ Results. The state medical error data suggests vast underreporting of hospital medical errors to the states. The telephone interviews suggest that hospitals are working at reducing medical errors and creating safer environments for patients. The literature review suggests the underreporting of medical errors at the state level stems from underreporting of errors at the delivery level. ^

A systematic analysis of INO80 in DNA replication

ATP-dependent chromatin remodeling has been shown to be critical for transcription and DNA repair. However, the involvement of ATP-dependent chromatin remodeling in DNA replication remains poorly defined. Interestingly, we found that the INO80 chromatin-remodeling complex is directly involved in the DNA damage tolerance pathways activated during DNA replication. DNA damage tolerance is important for genomic stability and is controlled by formation of either mono-ubiquitinated or multi-ubiquitinated PCNA, which respectively induce error prone or error-free replication bypass of the lesions. In addition, homologous recombination (HR) mediated by the Rad51 pathway is also involved in the DNA damage tolerance pathways. ^ We found that INO80 is specifically recruited to replication origins during S phase in a genome-wide fashion. In addition, DNA combing analysis shows INO80 is required for the resumption of replication at stalled forks induced by methyl methane-sulfonate (MMS). Mechanistically, we find that INO80 is required for PCNA ubiquitination as well as for Rad51 mediated processing of replication forks after MMS treatment. Furthermore, chromatin immunoprecipitation at specific ARSs indicates INO80 is necessary for Rad18 and Rad51 recruitment to replication forks after MMS treatment. Moreover, 2D gel analysis shows INO80 is necessary to process Rad51 mediated intermediates at impeded replication forks. ^ In conclusion, our findings establish a novel role of a chromatin-remodeling complex in DNA damage tolerance pathways and suggest that chromatin remodeling is fundamentally important to ensure faithful replication of DNA and genome stability in eukaryotes. ^

Functional data analysis approaches for genotype-phenotype association studies from next-generation sequencing

Next-generation DNA sequencing platforms can effectively detect the entire spectrum of genomic variation and is emerging to be a major tool for systematic exploration of the universe of variants and interactions in the entire genome. However, the data produced by next-generation sequencing technologies will suffer from three basic problems: sequence errors, assembly errors, and missing data. Current statistical methods for genetic analysis are well suited for detecting the association of common variants, but are less suitable to rare variants. This raises great challenge for sequence-based genetic studies of complex diseases.^ This research dissertation utilized genome continuum model as a general principle, and stochastic calculus and functional data analysis as tools for developing novel and powerful statistical methods for next generation of association studies of both qualitative and quantitative traits in the context of sequencing data, which finally lead to shifting the paradigm of association analysis from the current locus-by-locus analysis to collectively analyzing genome regions.^ In this project, the functional principal component (FPC) methods coupled with high-dimensional data reduction techniques will be used to develop novel and powerful methods for testing the associations of the entire spectrum of genetic variation within a segment of genome or a gene regardless of whether the variants are common or rare.^ The classical quantitative genetics suffer from high type I error rates and low power for rare variants. To overcome these limitations for resequencing data, this project used functional linear models with scalar response to develop statistics for identifying quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for both common and rare variants. To illustrate their applications, the functional linear models were applied to five quantitative traits in Framingham heart studies. ^ This project proposed a novel concept of gene-gene co-association in which a gene or a genomic region is taken as a unit of association analysis and used stochastic calculus to develop a unified framework for testing the association of multiple genes or genomic regions for both common and rare alleles. The proposed methods were applied to gene-gene co-association analysis of psoriasis in two independent GWAS datasets which led to discovery of networks significantly associated with psoriasis.^

Slope estimation in a parametric measurement error model: A simulation study

In regression analysis, covariate measurement error occurs in many applications. The error-prone covariates are often referred to as latent variables. In this proposed study, we extended the study of Chan et al. (2008) on recovering latent slope in a simple regression model to that in a multiple regression model. We presented an approach that applied the Monte Carlo method in the Bayesian framework to the parametric regression model with the measurement error in an explanatory variable. The proposed estimator applied the conditional expectation of latent slope given the observed outcome and surrogate variables in the multiple regression models. A simulation study was presented showing that the method produces estimator that is efficient in the multiple regression model, especially when the measurement error variance of surrogate variable is large.^

Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^

DEVELOPMENT OF NOVEL METHODS TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF SEQUENCING ERRORS IN THE NEXT-GENERATION SEQUENCING DATA ANALYSIS

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology has become a prominent tool in biological and biomedical research. However, NGS data analysis, such as de novo assembly, mapping and variants detection is far from maturity, and the high sequencing error-rate is one of the major problems. . To minimize the impact of sequencing errors, we developed a highly robust and efficient method, MTM, to correct the errors in NGS reads. We demonstrated the effectiveness of MTM on both single-cell data with highly non-uniform coverage and normal data with uniformly high coverage, reflecting that MTM’s performance does not rely on the coverage of the sequencing reads. MTM was also compared with Hammer and Quake, the best methods for correcting non-uniform and uniform data respectively. For non-uniform data, MTM outperformed both Hammer and Quake. For uniform data, MTM showed better performance than Quake and comparable results to Hammer. By making better error correction with MTM, the quality of downstream analysis, such as mapping and SNP detection, was improved. SNP calling is a major application of NGS technologies. However, the existence of sequencing errors complicates this process, especially for the low coverage (

New methods for quantification and analysis of quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction data

Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is a sensitive gene quantitation method that has been widely used in the biological and biomedical fields. The currently used methods for PCR data analysis, including the threshold cycle (CT) method, linear and non-linear model fitting methods, all require subtracting background fluorescence. However, the removal of background fluorescence is usually inaccurate, and therefore can distort results. Here, we propose a new method, the taking-difference linear regression method, to overcome this limitation. Briefly, for each two consecutive PCR cycles, we subtracted the fluorescence in the former cycle from that in the later cycle, transforming the n cycle raw data into n-1 cycle data. Then linear regression was applied to the natural logarithm of the transformed data. Finally, amplification efficiencies and the initial DNA molecular numbers were calculated for each PCR run. To evaluate this new method, we compared it in terms of accuracy and precision with the original linear regression method with three background corrections, being the mean of cycles 1-3, the mean of cycles 3-7, and the minimum. Three criteria, including threshold identification, max R2, and max slope, were employed to search for target data points. Considering that PCR data are time series data, we also applied linear mixed models. Collectively, when the threshold identification criterion was applied and when the linear mixed model was adopted, the taking-difference linear regression method was superior as it gave an accurate estimation of initial DNA amount and a reasonable estimation of PCR amplification efficiencies. When the criteria of max R2 and max slope were used, the original linear regression method gave an accurate estimation of initial DNA amount. Overall, the taking-difference linear regression method avoids the error in subtracting an unknown background and thus it is theoretically more accurate and reliable. This method is easy to perform and the taking-difference strategy can be extended to all current methods for qPCR data analysis.^