AN ILLNESS-DEATH PROCESS WITH TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATES

A general model for the illness-death stochastic process with covariates has been developed for the analysis of survival data. This model incorporates important baseline and time-dependent covariates to make proper adjustment for the transition probabilities and survival probabilities. The follow-up period is subdivided into small intervals and a constant hazard is assumed for each interval. An approximation formula is derived to estimate the transition parameters when the exact transition time is unknown.^ The method developed is illustrated by using data from a study on the prevention of the recurrence of a myocardial infarction and subsequent mortality, the Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This method provides an analytical approach which simultaneously includes provision for both fatal and nonfatal events in the model. According to this analysis, the effectiveness of the treatment can be compared between the Placebo and Propranolol treatment groups with respect to fatal and nonfatal events. ^

Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

A reduced model clarifies the role of feedback loops and time delays in the Drosophila circadian oscillator.

Although several detailed models of molecular processes essential for circadian oscillations have been developed, their complexity makes intuitive understanding of the oscillation mechanism difficult. The goal of the present study was to reduce a previously developed, detailed model to a minimal representation of the transcriptional regulation essential for circadian rhythmicity in Drosophila. The reduced model contains only two differential equations, each with time delays. A negative feedback loop is included, in which PER protein represses per transcription by binding the dCLOCK transcription factor. A positive feedback loop is also included, in which dCLOCK indirectly enhances its own formation. The model simulated circadian oscillations, light entrainment, and a phase-response curve with qualitative similarities to experiment. Time delays were found to be essential for simulation of circadian oscillations with this model. To examine the robustness of the simplified model to fluctuations in molecule numbers, a stochastic variant was constructed. Robust circadian oscillations and entrainment to light pulses were simulated with fewer than 80 molecules of each gene product present on average. Circadian oscillations persisted when the positive feedback loop was removed. Moreover, elimination of positive feedback did not decrease the robustness of oscillations to stochastic fluctuations or to variations in parameter values. Such reduced models can aid understanding of the oscillation mechanisms in Drosophila and in other organisms in which feedback regulation of transcription may play an important role.

Health-related quality of life and survival in liver transplant candidates.

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is an important measure of the effects of chronic liver disease in affected patients that helps guide interventions to improve well-being. However, the relationship between HRQOL and survival in liver transplant candidates remains unclear. We examined whether the Physical Component Summary (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores from the Short Form 36 (SF-36) Health Survey were associated with survival in liver transplant candidates. We administered the SF-36 questionnaire (version 2.0) to patients in the Pulmonary Vascular Complications of Liver Disease study, a multicenter prospective cohort of patients evaluated for liver transplantation in 7 academic centers in the United States between 2003 and 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used with death as the primary outcome and adjustment for liver transplantation as a time-varying covariate. The mean age of the 252 participants was 54 +/- 10 years, 64% were male, and 94% were white. During the 422 person years of follow-up, 147 patients (58%) were listed, 75 patients (30%) underwent transplantation, 49 patients (19%) died, and 3 patients were lost to follow-up. Lower baseline PCS scores were associated with an increased mortality rate despite adjustments for age, gender, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and liver transplantation (P for the trend = 0.0001). The MCS score was not associated with mortality (P for the trend = 0.53). In conclusion, PCS significantly predicts survival in liver transplant candidates, and interventions directed toward improving the physical status may be helpful in improving outcomes in liver transplant candidates.

Evaluation of deformable image registration for improved 4D CT-derived ventilation for image guided radiotherapy

Recent treatment planning studies have demonstrated the use of physiologic images in radiation therapy treatment planning to identify regions for functional avoidance. This image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) strategy may reduce the injury and/or functional loss following thoracic radiotherapy. 4D computed tomography (CT), developed for radiotherapy treatment planning, is a relatively new imaging technique that allows the acquisition of a time-varying sequence of 3D CT images of the patient's lungs through the respiratory cycle. Guerrero et al. developed a method to calculate ventilation imaging from 4D CT, which is potentially better suited and more broadly available for IGRT than the current standard imaging methods. The key to extracting function information from 4D CT is the construction of a volumetric deformation field that accurately tracks the motion of the patient's lungs during the respiratory cycle. The spatial accuracy of the displacement field directly impacts the ventilation images; higher spatial registration accuracy will result in less ventilation image artifacts and physiologic inaccuracies. Presently, a consistent methodology for spatial accuracy evaluation of the DIR transformation is lacking. Evaluation of the 4D CT-derived ventilation images will be performed to assess correlation with global measurements of lung ventilation, as well as regional correlation of the distribution of ventilation with the current clinical standard SPECT. This requires a novel framework for both the detailed assessment of an image registration algorithm's performance characteristics as well as quality assurance for spatial accuracy assessment in routine application. Finally, we hypothesize that hypo-ventilated regions, identified on 4D CT ventilation images, will correlate with hypo-perfused regions in lung cancer patients who have obstructive lesions. A prospective imaging trial of patients with locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer will allow this hypothesis to be tested. These advances are intended to contribute to the validation and clinical implementation of CT-based ventilation imaging in prospective clinical trials, in which the impact of this imaging method on patient outcomes may be tested.

Variation of genotype and prevalence of Noro virus in U.S. students in Mexico with Traveler's Diarrhea, summer of 2004 and 2005

Noro virus, a positive single stranded RNA virus has been identified as a major etiologic agent in food borne gastroenteritis and diarrheal diseases. The emergence of this organism as a major non-bacterial cause in such outbreaks is partly due to the improved diagnostic tools like Reverse Transcription Polymerase chain reaction (RTPCR) that enable its detection. Noro virus accounts for nearly 96% of non-bacterial gastroenteritis outbreaks in US (1). Travelers' Diarrhea (TD) has remained a constant public health risk in the developed nations for decades and bacteria like Entero toxigenic Escherichia coli, Entero aggregative Escherichia coli have been described as the main etiologic agents for TD (2-4). A possible viral contribution to TD has been discovered in two studies (5, 6). The current study was designed to determine the prevalence of Noro virus in a population of 107 US students with TD acquired in Mexico in 2005 and to compare the prevalence to the prevalence of Noro virus in a similar study done in 2004. This study involved the testing of clinical stool specimens from 107 subjects in 2005 for the presence of Noro virus using RTPCR. The prevalence of Noro virus in 2004 used for comparison to 2005 data was obtained from published data (5). All subjects were recruited as TD subjects in a randomized, double-blinded clinical trial comparing a standard three day dosing of Rifaximin with and without an anti motility drug Loperamide. The prevalence of Noro virus geno group I was similar in both years, but geno group II prevalence differed across the two years (p = 0.003). This study finding suggests that the prevalence of Noro virus geno groups varies with time even within a specific geographic location. This study emphasizes the need for further systematic epidemiologic studies to determine the molecular epidemiology and the prevalence patterns of different geno groups of this virus. These are essential to planning and implementation of public health measures to lessen the burden of TD due to Noro virus infection among US travelers. ^

Clinical relevance of polymorphic DNA copy number variation (CNV) in African American women with stage I-II breast cancer

Objectives. The chief goal of this study was to analyze copy number variation (CNV) in breast cancer tumors from 25 African American women with early stage breast cancer (BC) using molecular inversion probes (MIP) in order to: (1) compare the degree of CNV in tumors compared to normal lymph nodes, and (2) determine whether gains and/or losses of genes in specific chromosomes differ between pathologic subtypes of breast cancer defined by known prognostic markers, (3) determine whether gains/losses in CN are associated with known oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes, and (4) determine whether increased gains/losses in CN for specific chromosomes were associated with differences in breast cancer recurrence. ^ Methods. Twenty to 37 nanograms of DNA extracted from 25 formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tumor samples and matched normal lymph nodes were added to individual tubes. Oligonucleotide probes with recognition sequences at each terminus were hybridized with a genomic target sequence to form a circular structure. Probes are released from genomic DNA obtained from FFPE samples, and those which have been correctly "circularized" in the proper allele/nucleotide reaction combination are amplified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) primers. Amplicons were fluorescently labeled and the tag sequences released from the genome homology regions by treatment with uracil-N-glycosylase to cleave the probe at the site where uracils are present, and detected using a complementary tag array developed by Affymetrix. ^ Results. Analysis of CN gains and losses from tumors and normal tissues showed marked differences in tumors with numerous chromosomes affected. Similar changes were not observed in normal lymph nodes. When tumors were stratified into four groups based on expression or lack of expression of the estrogen receptor and HER2/neu, distinct patterns of CNV for different chromosomes were observed. Gains or losses in CN for specific chromosomes correlated with amplifications/deletions of particular oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes (i.e. such as found on chromosome 17) known to be associated with aggressive tumor phenotype and poor prognosis. There was a trend for increases in CN observed for chromosome 17 to correlate inversely with time to recurrence of BC (p=0.14 for trend). CNV was also observed for chromosomes 5, 8, 10, 11, and 16, which are known sites for several breast cancer susceptibility alleles. ^ Conclusions. This study is the first to validate the MIP technique, to correlate differences in gene expression with known prognostic tumor markers, and to correlate significant increases/decreases in CN with known tumor markers associated with prognosis. The results of this study may have far reaching public health implications towards identifying new high-risk groups based on genomic differences in CNP, both with respect to prognosis and response to therapy, and to eventually identify new therapeutic targets for prevention and treatment of this disease. ^

In-vivo diffusion tensor imaging of rat spinal cord with a phased array coil at 7T

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a non-invasive technique that offers excellent soft tissue contrast for characterizing soft tissue pathologies. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is an MRI technique that has shown to have the sensitivity to detect subtle pathology that is not evident on conventional MRI. ^ Rats are commonly used as animal models in characterizing the spinal cord pathologies including spinal cord injury (SCI), cancer, multiple sclerosis, etc. These pathologies could affect both thoracic and cervical regions and complete characterization of these pathologies using MRI requires DTI characterization in both the thoracic and cervical regions. Prior to the application of DTI for investigating the pathologic changes in the spinal cord, it is essential to establish DTI metrics in normal animals. ^ To date, in-vivo DTI studies of rat spinal cord have used implantable coils for high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and spin-echo pulse sequences for reduced geometric distortions. Implantable coils have several disadvantages including: (1) the invasive nature of implantation, (2) loss of SNR due to frequency shift with time in the longitudinal studies, and (3) difficulty in imaging the cervical region. While echo planar imaging (EPI) offers much shorter acquisition times compared to spin-echo imaging, EPI is very sensitive to static magnetic field inhomogeneities and the existing shimming techniques implemented on the MRI scanner do not perform well on spinal cord because of its geometry. ^ In this work, an integrated approach has been implemented for in-vivo DTI characterization of rat spinal cord in the thoracic and cervical regions. A three element phased array coil was developed for improved SNR and extended spatial coverage. A field-map shimming technique was developed for minimizing the geometric distortions in EPI images. Using these techniques, EPI based DWI images were acquired with optimized diffusion encoding scheme from 6 normal rats and the DTI-derived metrics were quantified. ^ The phantom studies indicated higher SNR and smaller bias in the estimated DTI metrics than the previous studies in the cervical region. In-vivo results indicated no statistical difference in the DTI characteristics of either gray matter or white matter between the thoracic and cervical regions. ^

Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

External assessment of myocardial glucose metabolism with $\sp{18}$F-2 -deoxy-2 -fluoro-D-glucose

Despite the popularity of the positron emitting glucose analog, ($\sp{18}$F) -2-deoxy-2-fluoro-D-glucose (2FDG), for the noninvasive "metabolic imaging" of organs with positron emission tomography (PET), the physiological basis for the tracer has not been tested, and the potential of 2FDG for the rapid kinetic analysis of altered glucose metabolism in the intact heart has not been fully exploited. We, therefore, developed a quantitative method to characterize metabolic changes of myocardial glucose metabolism noninvasively and with high temporal resolution.^ The first objective of the work was to provide direct evidence that the initial steps in the metabolism of 2FDG are the same as for glucose and that 2FDG is retained by the tissue in proportion to the rate of glucose utilization. The second objective was to characterize the kinetic changes in myocardial glucose transport and phosphorylation in response to changes in work load, competing substrates, acute ischemia and reperfusion, and the addition of insulin. To assess changes in myocardial glucose metabolism isolated working rat hearts were perfused with glucose and 2FDG. Tissue uptake of 2FDG and the input function were measured on-line by external detection. The steady state rate of 2FDG phosphorylation was determined by graphical analysis of 2FDG time-activity curves.^ The rate of 2FDG uptake was linear with time and the tracer was retained in its phosphorylated form. Tissue accumulation of 2FDG decreased within seconds with a reduction in work load, in the presence of competing substrates, and during reperfusion after global ischemia. Thus, most interventions known to alter glucose metabolism induced rapid parallel changes in 2FDG uptake. By contrast, insulin caused a significant increase in 2FDG accumulation only in hearts from fasted animals when perfused at a sub-physiological work load. The mechanism for this phenomenon is not known but may be related to the existence of two different glucose transporter systems and/or glycogen metabolism in the myocardial cell.^ It is concluded that (1) 2FDG traces glucose uptake and phosphorylation in the isolated working rat heart; and (2) early and transient kinetic changes in glucose metabolism can be monitored with high temporal resolution with 2FDG and a simple positron coincidence counting system. The new method has revealed transients of myocardial glucose metabolism, which would have remained unnoticed with conventional methods. These transients are not only important for the interpretation of glucose metabolic PET scans, but also provide insights into mechanisms of glucose transport and phosphorylation in heart muscle. ^