A simulation study using the hybrid statistic and the meta-analysis t-test for data with matched and unmatched subjects in the interim analysis of clinical trials

An interim analysis is usually applied in later phase II or phase III trials to find convincing evidence of a significant treatment difference that may lead to trial termination at an earlier point than planned at the beginning. This can result in the saving of patient resources and shortening of drug development and approval time. In addition, ethics and economics are also the reasons to stop a trial earlier. In clinical trials of eyes, ears, knees, arms, kidneys, lungs, and other clustered treatments, data may include distribution-free random variables with matched and unmatched subjects in one study. It is important to properly include both subjects in the interim and the final analyses so that the maximum efficiency of statistical and clinical inferences can be obtained at different stages of the trials. So far, no publication has applied a statistical method for distribution-free data with matched and unmatched subjects in the interim analysis of clinical trials. In this simulation study, the hybrid statistic was used to estimate the empirical powers and the empirical type I errors among the simulated datasets with different sample sizes, different effect sizes, different correlation coefficients for matched pairs, and different data distributions, respectively, in the interim and final analysis with 4 different group sequential methods. Empirical powers and empirical type I errors were also compared to those estimated by using the meta-analysis t-test among the same simulated datasets. Results from this simulation study show that, compared to the meta-analysis t-test commonly used for data with normally distributed observations, the hybrid statistic has a greater power for data observed from normally, log-normally, and multinomially distributed random variables with matched and unmatched subjects and with outliers. Powers rose with the increase in sample size, effect size, and correlation coefficient for the matched pairs. In addition, lower type I errors were observed estimated by using the hybrid statistic, which indicates that this test is also conservative for data with outliers in the interim analysis of clinical trials.^

Application of Signal Advance Technology to Electrophysiology

Medical instrumentation used in diagnosis and treatment relies on the accurate detection and processing of various physiological events and signals. While signal detection technology has improved greatly in recent years, there remain inherent delays in signal detection/ processing. These delays may have significant negative clinical consequences during various pathophysiological events. Reducing or eliminating such delays would increase the ability to provide successful early intervention in certain disorders thereby increasing the efficacy of treatment. In recent years, a physical phenomenon referred to as Negative Group Delay (NGD), demonstrated in simple electronic circuits, has been shown to temporally advance the detection of analog waveforms. Specifically, the output is temporally advanced relative to the input, as the time delay through the circuit is negative. The circuit output precedes the complete detection of the input signal. This process is referred to as signal advance (SA) detection. An SA circuit model incorporating NGD was designed, developed and tested. It imparts a constant temporal signal advance over a pre-specified spectral range in which the output is almost identical to the input signal (i.e., it has minimal distortion). Certain human patho-electrophysiological events are good candidates for the application of temporally-advanced waveform detection. SA technology has potential in early arrhythmia and epileptic seizure detection and intervention. Demonstrating reliable and consistent temporally advanced detection of electrophysiological waveforms may enable intervention with a pathological event (much) earlier than previously possible. SA detection could also be used to improve the performance of neural computer interfaces, neurotherapy applications, radiation therapy and imaging. In this study, the performance of a single-stage SA circuit model on a variety of constructed input signals, and human ECGs is investigated. The data obtained is used to quantify and characterize the temporal advances and circuit gain, as well as distortions in the output waveforms relative to their inputs. This project combines elements of physics, engineering, signal processing, statistics and electrophysiology. Its success has important consequences for the development of novel interventional methodologies in cardiology and neurophysiology as well as significant potential in a broader range of both biomedical and non-biomedical areas of application.

Adolescent Sexual Behavior: Examining Data from Texas and the US

Background: The US has higher rates of teen births and sexually transmitted infections (STI) than other developed countries. Texas youth are disproportionately impacted. Purpose: To review local, state, and national data on teens’ engagement in sexual risk behaviors to inform policy and practice related to teen sexual health. Methods: 2009 middle school and high school Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) data, and data from All About Youth, a middle school study conducted in a large urban school district in Texas, were analyzed to assess the prevalence of sexual initiation, including the initiation of non-coital sex, and the prevalence of sexual risk behaviors among Texas and US youth. Results: A substantial proportion of middle and high school students are having sex. Sexual initiation begins as early as 6th grade and increases steadily through 12th grade with almost two-thirds of high school seniors being sexually experienced. Many teens are not protecting themselves from unintended pregnancy or STIs – nationally, 80% and 39% of high school students did not use birth control pills or a condom respectively the last time they had sex. Many middle and high school students are engaging in oral and anal sex, two behaviors which increase the risk of contracting an STI and HIV. In Texas, an estimated 689,512 out of 1,327,815 public high school students are sexually experienced – over half (52%) of the total high school population. Texas students surpass their US peers in several sexual risk behaviors including number of lifetime sexual partners, being currently sexually active, and not using effective methods of birth control or dual protection when having sex. They are also less likely to receive HIV/AIDS education in school. Conclusion: Changes in policy and practice, including implementation of evidence-based sex education programs in middle and high schools and increased access to integrated, teen-friendly sexual and reproductive health services, are urgently needed at the state and national levels to address these issues effectively.

Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^

Data Management Policies and Issues with Life Science Data

Data management and sharing are relatively new concepts in the health and life sciences fields. This presentation will cover some basic policies as well as the impediments to data sharing unique to health and life sciences data.

COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATION-BASED IMRT QA USING R&V DATA, TREATMENT RECORDS, AND A SECOND TREATMENT PLANNING SYSTEM

Purpose: Traditional patient-specific IMRT QA measurements are labor intensive and consume machine time. Calculation-based IMRT QA methods typically are not comprehensive. We have developed a comprehensive calculation-based IMRT QA method to detect uncertainties introduced by the initial dose calculation, the data transfer through the Record-and-Verify (R&V) system, and various aspects of the physical delivery. Methods: We recomputed the treatment plans in the patient geometry for 48 cases using data from the R&V, and from the delivery unit to calculate the “as-transferred” and “as-delivered” doses respectively. These data were sent to the original TPS to verify transfer and delivery or to a second TPS to verify the original calculation. For each dataset we examined the dose computed from the R&V record (RV) and from the delivery records (Tx), and the dose computed with a second verification TPS (vTPS). Each verification dose was compared to the clinical dose distribution using 3D gamma analysis and by comparison of mean dose and ROI-specific dose levels to target volumes. Plans were also compared to IMRT QA absolute and relative dose measurements. Results: The average 3D gamma passing percentages using 3%-3mm, 2%-2mm, and 1%-1mm criteria for the RV plan were 100.0 (σ=0.0), 100.0 (σ=0.0), and 100.0 (σ=0.1); for the Tx plan they were 100.0 (σ=0.0), 100.0 (σ=0.0), and 99.0 (σ=1.4); and for the vTPS plan they were 99.3 (σ=0.6), 97.2 (σ=1.5), and 79.0 (σ=8.6). When comparing target volume doses in the RV, Tx, and vTPS plans to the clinical plans, the average ratios of ROI mean doses were 0.999 (σ=0.001), 1.001 (σ=0.002), and 0.990 (σ=0.009) and ROI-specific dose levels were 0.999 (σ=0.001), 1.001 (σ=0.002), and 0.980 (σ=0.043), respectively. Comparing the clinical, RV, TR, and vTPS calculated doses to the IMRT QA measurements for all 48 patients, the average ratios for absolute doses were 0.999 (σ=0.013), 0.998 (σ=0.013), 0.999 σ=0.015), and 0.990 (σ=0.012), respectively, and the average 2D gamma(5%-3mm) passing percentages for relative doses for 9 patients was were 99.36 (σ=0.68), 99.50 (σ=0.49), 99.13 (σ=0.84), and 98.76 (σ=1.66), respectively. Conclusions: Together with mechanical and dosimetric QA, our calculation-based IMRT QA method promises to minimize the need for patient-specific QA measurements by identifying outliers in need of further review.