Fate and effects of drilling wastes in a shallow estuarine mesocosm

To address concerns expressed about the possible effect of drilling mud discharges on shallow, low-energy estuarine ecosystems, a 12 month study was designed to detect alterations in water quality and sediment geochemistry. Each drilling mud used in the study and sediments from the study site were analyzed in the laboratory for chemical and physical characteristics. Potential water quality impacts were simulated by the EPA-COE elutriation test procedure. Mud toxicity was measured by acute and chronic bioassays with Mysidopsis bahia, Mercenaria mercenaria, and Nereis virens.^ For the field study, a relatively pristine, shallow (1.2 m) estuary (Christmas Bay, TX) without any drilling activity for the last 30 years was chosen for the study site. After a three month baseline study, three stations were selected. Station 1 was an external control. At each treatment station (2, 3), mesocosms were constructed to enclose a 3.5 m$\sp3$ water column. Each treatment station included an internal control site also. Each in situ mesocosm, except the controls, was successively dosed at a mesocosm-specific dose (1:100; 1:1,000; or 1:10,000 v/v) with 4 field collected drilling muds (spud, nondispersed, lightly-treated, and heavily-treated lignosulfonate) in sequential order over 1.5 months. Twenty-four hours after each dose, water exchange was allowed until the next treatment. Station 3 was destroyed by a winter storm. After the last treatment, the enclosures were removed and the remaining sites monitored for 6 months. One additional site was similarly dosed (1:100 v/v) with clean dredged sediment from Christmas Bay for comparison between dredged sediments and drilling muds.^ Results of the analysis of the water samples and field measurements showed that water quality was impacted during the discharges, primarily at the highest dose (1:100 v/v), but that elevated levels of C, Cr (T,F), Cr$\sp{+3}$ (T, F), N, Pb, and Zn returned to ambient levels before the end of the 24 hour exposure period or immediately after water exchange was allowed (Al, Ba(T), Chlorophyll ABC, SS, %T). Barium, from the barite, was used as a geochemical tracer in the sediments to confirm estimated doses by mass balance calculations. Barium reached a maximum of 166x background levels at the high dose mesocosm. Barium levels returned to ambient or only slightly elevated levels at the end of the 6 month monitoring period due to sediment deposition, resuspension, and bioturbation. QA/QC results using blind samples consisting of lab standards and spiked samples for both water and sediment matrices were within acceptable coefficients of variation.^ In order to avoid impacts on water quality and sediment geochemistry in a shallow estuarine ecosystem, this study concluded that a minimal dilution of 1:1,000 (v/v) would be required in addition to existing regulatory constraints. ^

COSTS AND EFFECTS OF ARKANSAS' LONG-TERM CARE DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (MEDICAID, CHANELLING, COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT)

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the Arkansas Long-Term Care Demonstration Project upon Arkansas' Medicaid expenditures and upon the clients it serves. A Retrospective Medicaid expenditure study component used analyses of variance techniques to test for the Project's effects upon aggregated expenditures for 28 demonstration and control counties representing 25 percent of the State's population over four years, 1979-1982.^ A second approach to the study question utilized a 1982 prospective sample of 458 demonstration and control clients from the same 28 counties. The disability level or need for care of each patient was established a priori. The extent to which an individual's variation in Medicaid utilization and costs was explained by patient need, presence or absence of the channeling project's placement decision or some other patient characteristic was examined by multiple regression analysis. Long-term and acute care Medicaid, Medicare, third party, self-pay and the grand total of all Medicaid claims were analyzed for project effects and explanatory relationships.^ The main project effect was to increase personal care costs without reducing nursing home or acute care costs (Prospective Study). Expansion of clients appeared to occur in personal care (Prospective Study) and minimum care nursing home (Retrospective Study) for the project areas. Cost-shifting between Medicaid and Medicare in the project areas and two different patterns of utilization in the North and South projects tended to offset each other such that no differences in total costs between the project areas and demonstration areas occurred. The project was significant ((beta) = .22, p < .001) only for personal care costs. The explanatory power of this personal care regression model (R('2) = .36) was comparable to other reported health services utilization models. Other variables (Medicare buy-in, level of disability, Social Security Supplemental Income (SSI), net monthly income, North/South areas and age) explained more variation in the other twelve cost regression models. ^

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^