Interim analysis of clinical trials: Simulation studies of fractional Brownian motion

Interim clinical trial monitoring procedures were motivated by ethical and economic considerations. Classical Brownian motion (Bm) techniques for statistical monitoring of clinical trials were widely used. Conditional power argument and α-spending function based boundary crossing probabilities are popular statistical hypothesis testing procedures under the assumption of Brownian motion. However, it is not rare that the assumptions of Brownian motion are only partially met for trial data. Therefore, I used a more generalized form of stochastic process, called fractional Brownian motion (fBm), to model the test statistics. Fractional Brownian motion does not hold Markov property and future observations depend not only on the present observations but also on the past ones. In this dissertation, we simulated a wide range of fBm data, e.g., H = 0.5 (that is, classical Bm) vs. 0.5< H <1, with treatment effects vs. without treatment effects. Then the performance of conditional power and boundary-crossing based interim analyses were compared by assuming that the data follow Bm or fBm. Our simulation study suggested that the conditional power or boundaries under fBm assumptions are generally higher than those under Bm assumptions when H > 0.5 and also matches better with the empirical results. ^

The relationship of anthropometric measures of Hispanic children up to the age 5, to economic status and parental stature

Using data from the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1982-1984 (HHANES) of the Nutritional Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the heights, weights and arm circumferences of 217 Mexican-American children ranging in age from six to sixty months were examined to assess whether birth weight, parental stature, and economic status greatly influenced growth patterns of Mexican-American children living with both parents.^ Heights, weights, and arm circumferences were converted to standardized values of height-for-age, weight-for-age, and arm circumference-for-age using norms developed for Anglo-American children (NCHS, 1977).^ Correlation and contingency table analysis were performed to test hypotheses concerning factors found associated with the stature of children in earlier studies.^ While relationships among childhood stature and birth weight, parental stature, and economic status were in the expected direction, few were statistically significant due to the small number of cases in the analyses. Reliable conclusions concerning these relationships require a much longer sample of families. ^

Economic evaluation of latent tuberculosis infection screening among health care workers in Houston

Since interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) were introduced in the 2000's, tuberculin skin testing (TST) and IGRAs have been used in various latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) screening settings. IGRAs are laboratory-based tests and are considered not to be affected by previous Bacille de Calmette et Guérin (BCG) vaccination; however, they are more costly when compared directly with TST, which does not require specimen processing in a laboratory. This study aimed to examine TST and two types of IGRAs, QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT. TB (TSPOT), from an economic viewpoint. Firstly, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify cost related analyses of LTBI screening. Secondly, specific cost information detailing each test's items and labor was collected from an LTBI screening program of health care workers in Houston, and the cost of each test was computed. Thirdly, using the computed cost estimate of each test, cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted to compare TST and IGRAs.^ A literature search showed that a limited number of studies have been conducted, but the IGRA's economic advantages were common among studies. Cost analyses showed that IGRAs were much more costly than TST. The results were consistent with previous studies. In cost-effectiveness analyses, where test cost and consequential TB-related cost were considered, IGRAs showed variable advantages over TST depending on the targeted population. When only non BCG-vaccinated people were considered, TST was the least costly option among the three tests. On the other hand, when only BCG-vaccinated people were considered, IGRAs were less costly options. These results were mostly consistent even with varying assumption parameters.^ IGRAs can be more costly than TST, but their economic disadvantages are alleviated when the target population was BCG-vaccinated. Based on current knowledge, IGRAs may be recommended in a population where the BCG history is mixed. Additional studies are needed to better understand IGRA's reliability among low-incidence and low-risk populations in which background TB prevalence is low.^

Effects of overweight and obesity on economic outcomes among U.S. adults with kidney disease

Background. Kidney disease is a growing public health phenomenon in the U.S. and in the world. Downstream interventions, dialysis and renal transplants covered by Medicare's renal disease entitlement policy in those who are 65 years and over have been expensive treatments that have been not foolproof. The shortage of kidney donors in the U.S. has grown in the last two decades. Therefore study of upstream events in kidney disease development and progression is justified to prevent the rising prevalence of kidney disease. Previous studies have documented the biological route by which obesity can progress and accelerate kidney disease, but health services literature on quantifying the effects of overweight and obesity on economic outcomes in the context of renal disease were lacking. Objectives . The specific aims of this study were (1) to determine the likelihood of overweight and obesity in renal disease and in three specific adult renal disease sub-populations, hypertensive, diabetic and both hypertensive and diabetic (2) to determine the incremental health service use and spending in overweight and obese renal disease populations and (3) to determine who financed the cost of healthcare for renal disease in overweight and obese adult populations less than 65 years of age. Methods. This study was a retrospective cross-sectional study of renal disease cases pooled for years 2002 to 2009 from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. The likelihood of overweight and obesity was estimated using chi-square test. Negative binomial regression and generalized gamma model with log link were used to estimate healthcare utilization and healthcare expenditures for six health event categories. Payments by self/family, public and private insurance were described for overweight and obese kidney disease sub-populations. Results. The likelihood of overweight and obesity was 0.29 and 0.46 among renal disease and obesity was common in hypertensive and diabetic renal disease population. Among obese renal disease population, negative binomial regression estimates of healthcare utilization per person per year as compared to normal weight renal disease persons were significant for office-based provider visits and agency home health visits respectively (p=0.001; p=0.005). Among overweight kidney disease population health service use was significant for inpatient hospital discharges (p=0.027). Over years 2002 to 2009, overweight and obese renal disease sub-populations had 53% and 63% higher inpatient facility and doctor expenditures as compared to normal weight renal disease population and these result were statistically significant (p=0.007; p=0.026). Overweigh renal disease population had significant total expenses per person per year for office-based and outpatient associated care. Overweight and obese renal disease persons paid less from out-of-pocket overall compared to normal weight renal disease population. Medicare and Medicaid had the highest mean annual payments for obese renal disease persons, while mean annual payments per year were highest for private insurance among normal weight renal disease population. Conclusion. Overweight and obesity were common in those with acute and chronic kidney disease and resulted in higher healthcare spending and increased utilization of office-based providers, hospital inpatient department and agency home healthcare. Healthcare for overweight and obese renal disease persons younger than 65 years of age was financed more by private and public insurance and less by out of pocket payments. With the increasing epidemic of obesity in the U.S. and the aging of the baby boomer population, the findings of the present study have implications for public health and for greater dissemination of healthcare resources to prevent, manage and delay the onset of overweight and obesity that can progress and accelerate the course of the kidney disease.^