Attitudes of Parents at risk of inheriting Li-Fraumeni Syndrome towards predictive genetic testing in their minor-aged children.

Li-Fraumeni Syndrome (LFS) is a hereditary cancer syndrome which predisposes individuals to cancer beginning in childhood. These risks are spread across a lifetime, from early childhood to adulthood. Mutations in the p53 tumor suppressor gene are known to cause the majority of cases of LFS. The risk for early onset cancer in individuals with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome is high. Studies have shown that individuals with LFS have a 90% lifetime cancer risk. Children under 18 have up to a 15% chance of cancer development. Effectiveness of cancer screening and management in individuals with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome is unclear. Screening for LFS-associated cancers has not been shown to reduce mortality. Due to the lack of effective screening techniques for childhood cancers, institutions vary with regard to their policies on testing children for LFS. There are currently no national guidelines regarding predictive testing of children who are at risk of inheriting LFS. No studies have looked at parental attitudes towards predictive p53 genetic testing in their children. This was a cross-sectional pilot study aimed at describing these attitudes. We identified individuals whose children were at risk for inheriting p53 genetic mutations. These individuals were provided with surveys which included validated measures addressing attitudes and beliefs towards genetic testing. The questionnaire included qualitative and quantitative measures. Six individuals completed and returned the questionnaire with a response rate of 28.57%. In general, respondents agreed that parents should have the opportunity to obtain p53 genetic testing for their child. Parents vary in regard to their attitudes towards who should be involved in the decision making process and at what time and under what considerations testing should occur. Testing motivations cited most important by respondents included family history, planning for the future and health management. Concern for insurance genetic discrimination was cited as the most important “con” to genetic testing. Although limited by a poor response rate, this study can give health care practitioners insight into testing attitudes and beliefs of families considering pediatric genetic testing.

Smooth Muscle Hyperplasia due to ACTA2/MYH11 Mutations: Identification of Novel Pathology and Pathways Leading to Aneurysms and Diverse Vascular Occlusive Diseases

Missense mutations in smooth muscle cell (SMC) specific ACTA2 (á-actin) and MYH11 (â-myosin heavy chain) cause diffuse and diverse vascular diseases, including thoracic aortic aneurysms and dissections (TAAD) and early onset coronary artery disease and stroke. The mechanism by which these mutations lead to dilatation of some arteries but occlusion of others is unknown. We hypothesized that the mutations act through two distinct mechanisms to cause varied vascular diseases: a loss of function, leading to decreased SMC contraction and aneurysms, and a gain of function, leading to increased SMC proliferation and occlusive disease. To test this hypothesis, ACTA2 mutant SMCs and myofibroblasts were assessed and found to not form á-actin filaments whereas control cells did, suggesting a dominant negative effect of ACTA2 mutations on filament formation. A loss of á-actin filaments would be predicted to cause decreased SMC contractility. Histological examination of vascular tissues from patients revealed SMC hyperplasia leading to arterial stenosis and occlusion, supporting a gain of function associated with the mutant gene. Furthermore, ACTA2 mutant SMCs and myofibroblasts proliferated more rapidly in static culture than control cells (p<0.05). We also determined that Acta2-/- mice have ascending aortic aneurysms. Histological examination revealed aortic medial SMC hyperplasia, but minimal features of medial degeneration. Acta2-/- SMCs proliferated more rapidly in culture than wildtype (p<0.05), and microarray analysis of Acta2-/- SMCs revealed increased expression of Actg2, 15 collagen genes, and multiple focal adhesion genes. Acta2-/- SMCs showed altered localization of vinculin and zyxin and increased phosphorylated focal adhesion kinase (FAK) in focal adhesions. A specific FAK inhibitor decreased Acta2-/- SMC proliferation to levels equal to wildtype SMCs (p<0.05), suggesting that FAK activation leads to the increased proliferation. We have described a unique pathology associated with ACTA2 and MYH11 mutations, as well as an aneurysm phenotype in Acta2-/- mice. Additionally, we identified a novel pathogenic pathway for vascular occlusive disease due to loss of SMC contractile filaments, alterations in focal adhesions, and activation of FAK signaling in SMCs with ACTA2 mutations.

Skeletal abnormalities in mice lacking extracellular matrix proteins, thrombospondin-1, thrombospondin-3, thrombospondin-5, and type IX collagen.

Thrombospondin-5 (TSP5) is a large extracellular matrix glycoprotein found in musculoskeletal tissues. TSP5 mutations cause two skeletal dysplasias, pseudoachondroplasia and multiple epiphyseal dysplasia; both show a characteristic growth plate phenotype with retention of TSP5, type IX collagen (Col9), and matrillin-3 in the rough endoplasmic reticulum. Whereas most studies focus on defining the disease process, few functional studies have been performed. TSP5 knockout mice have no obvious skeletal abnormalities, suggesting that TSP5 is not essential in the growth plate and/or that other TSPs may compensate. In contrast, Col9 knockout mice have diminished matrillin-3 levels in the extracellular matrix and early-onset osteoarthritis. To define the roles of TSP1, TSP3, TSP5, and Col9 in the growth plate, all knockout and combinatorial strains were analyzed using histomorphometric techniques. While significant alterations in growth plate organization were found in certain single knockout mouse strains, skeletal growth was only mildly disturbed. In contrast, dramatic changes in growth plate organization in TSP3/5/Col9 knockout mice resulted in a 20% reduction in limb length, corresponding to similar short stature in humans. These studies show that type IX collagen may regulate growth plate width; TSP3, TSP5, and Col9 appear to contribute to growth plate organization; and TSP1 may help define the timing of growth plate closure when other extracellular proteins are absent.

Cost-effectiveness of universal prophylaxis in pregnancy with prior group B streptococci colonization.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs and outcomes of rescreening for group B streptococci (GBS) compared to universal treatment of term women with history of GBS colonization in a previous pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: A decision analysis model was used to compare costs and outcomes. Total cost included the costs of screening, intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP), treatment for maternal anaphylaxis and death, evaluation of well infants whose mothers received IAP, and total costs for treatment of term neonatal early onset GBS sepsis. RESULTS: When compared to screening and treating, universal treatment results in more women treated per GBS case prevented (155 versus 67) and prevents more cases of early onset GBS (1732 versus 1700) and neonatal deaths (52 versus 51) at a lower cost per case prevented ($8,805 versus $12,710). CONCLUSION: Universal treatment of term pregnancies with a history of previous GBS colonization is more cost-effective than the strategy of screening and treating based on positive culture results.

The story of RP10: A positional cloning approach to the identification of an autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa gene

Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) is an inherited retinal degenerative disease that is the leading cause of inherited blindness worldwide. Characteristic features of the disease include night blindness, progressive loss of visual fields, and deposition of pigment on the retina in a bone spicule-like pattern. RP is marked by extreme genetic heterogeneity with at least 19 autosomal dominant, autosomal recessive and X-linked loci identified. RP10, which maps to chromosome 7q, was the fifth autosomal dominant RP locus identified, and accounts for the early-onset disease in two independent families. Extensive linkage and haplotype analyses have been performed in these two families which have allowed the assignment of the disease locus to a 5-cM region on chromosome 7q31.3. In collaboration with Dr. Eric Green (National Center for Human Genome Research, National Institutes of Health), a well-characterized physical map of the region was constructed which includes YAC, BAC and cosmid coverage. The entire RP10 critical region resides within a 9-Mb well-characterized YAC contig. These physical maps not only provided the resources to undertake the CAIGES (cDNA amplification for identification of genomic expressed sequences) procedure for identification of retinal candidate genes within the critical region, but also identified a number of candidate genes, including transducin-$\gamma$ and blue cone pigment genes. All candidate genes examined were excluded. In addition, a number of ESTs were mapped within the critical region. EST20241, which was isolated from an eye library, corresponded to the 3$\sp\prime$ region of the ADP-ribosylation factor (ARF) 5 gene. ARF5, with its role in vesicle transport and possible participation in the regulation of the visual transduction pathway, became an extremely interesting candidate gene. Using a primer walking approach, the entire 3.2 kb genomic sequence of the ARF5 gene was generated and developed intronic primers to screen for coding region mutations in affected family members. No mutations were found in the ARF5 gene, however, a number of additional ESTs have been mapped to the critical region, and, as the large-scale sequencing projects get underway, megabases of raw sequence data from the RP10 region are becoming available. These resources will hasten the isolation and characterization of the RP10 gene. ^

Evidence for the involvement of proximal chromosome 3P loci in the progression of Von Hippel-Lindau related tumors

Von Hippel-Lindau (VHL) disease is an autosomal dominant disorder characterized by the development of retinal and central nervous system hemangioblastoma, renal cell carcinoma (RCC), pheochromocytoma and pancreatic islet cell tumors (PICT). The VHL gene maps to chromosome 3p25 and has been shown to be mutated in 57% of sporadic cases of RCC, implicating VHL in the genesis of RCC. We report a multigeneration VHL kindred in which four affected female siblings developed PICT at early ages. Analysis of the three coding exons of the VHL gene in this family revealed a single, missense mutation in codon 238. Inheritance of the 238 mutation has been reported to correlate with a 62% risk of pheochromocytoma development. In this kindred, all affected individuals carried the mutation as well as one additional sibling who showed no evidence of disease. Clinical screening of this individual indicated small ($<$1 cm) pancreatic and kidney tumors. Results suggest that inheritance of the codon 238 mutation does not correlate with early onset pheochromocytoma. Rather, the only individual in the pedigree with pheochromocytoma was the proband's mother who developed bilateral pheochromocytoma at the age of 62. Thus, the VHL codon 238 mutation may predispose to late onset pheochromocytoma in this family; however, it does not explain the preponderance of PICT in the third generation since this mutation has not been reported to increase the risk of developing pancreatic lesions. This suggests that inheritance of the codon 238 mutation and subsequent somatic inactivation of the wild type allele of the VHL gene may not be sufficient to explain the initiation and subsequent progression to malignancy in VHL-associated neoplasms. Since the two tumor types that most frequently progress to malignancy are RCC and PICT, we asked whether loss of heterozygosity (LOH) could be detected proximal to the VHL gene on chromosome 3 in distinct regions of 3p previously implicated by LOH and cytogenetic studies to contain tumor suppressor loci for RCC. LOH was performed on high molecular weight DNA isolated from peripheral blood and frozen tumor tissue of family members using microsatellite markers spanning 3p. Results indicated LOH for all informative 3p loci in tumor tissue from affected individuals with PICT. LOH was detected along the entire length of the chromosome arm and included the proximal region of 3p13-14.2 implicated in the hereditary form of renal cell carcinoma.^ If 3p LOH were a critical event in pancreatic islet cell tumorigenesis, then it should be expected that LOH in sporadic islet cell tumors would also be observed. We expanded LOH studies to include sporadic cases of PICT. Consistent LOH was observed on 3p with a highest frequency LOH in the region 3p21.2. This is the first evidence for an association between chromosome 3 loci and pancreatic islet cell tumorigenesis. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Clinical decisions related to CBC screening of asymptomatic full-term infants at risk for group B streptococcus disease

Objective. Although complete blood count (CBC) changes occur with the development of clinical sepsis in newborns, the CBC has not been reported to be a sensitive predictor of sepsis in asymptomatic full-term newborn infants, nor has it been reported to be related to risk factors for sepsis or clinical decisions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the WBC/I:T (immature:total neutrophil) ratio and maternal group B streptococcal (GBS) risk factors (rupture of membranes ≥18 hours, maternal temperature ≥100.4°F, maternal age ≤20 years, previous infant with invasive GBS disease, maternal GBS bacteriuria, and black ethnicity); and to evaluate the relationship between the WBC/I:T ratios and providers' clinical decisions (observe versus repeat the CBC or complete sepsis evaluation) in the asymptomatic full-term newborn at risk for early-onset GBS sepsis. ^ Methods. Medical records of infants admitted to the well baby nursery at a tertiary care teaching hospital in Houston, TX between 1/1/99 and 12/31/00 whose gestational ages were ≥35 weeks; who had mothers with GBS positive or unknown culture status and inadequate intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis; and who had screening CBCs performed in the first 30 hours of life because of GBS risk were reviewed (n = 412). Demographic information, maternal GBS risk factors, CBC results, clinical decisions, and rationales for clinical decisions were collected. ^ Results. With the exception of black ethnicity (p = .0000, odds ratio = 0.213), no statistically significant differences in risk factors between infants with normal and abnormal WBC counts or normal and abnormal I:T ratios were found. Infants with abnormal WBCs had a significantly higher likelihood of having a CBC repeated (p = 0.002 for WBC). Providers documented the CBC result in the rationale for clinical decisions in 62% of the cases. ^ Conclusion. The CBC results were not related to maternal risk factors for GBS except for ethnicity. Black infants had significantly lower WBC levels than infants of other ethnicities, although this difference was clinically insignificant. Infants with abnormal WBCs had a significantly higher likelihood of undergoing repeat CBCs but not sepsis evaluations. Provider rationale was difficult to evaluate due to insufficient documentation. The screening CBC result did not impact the clinicians' decisions to initiate sepsis evaluations in this population. ^

Evaluation of oxidative damage and renal distal tubule cell stress response following exposure to lindane

Lindane, or γ-hexachlorocyclohexane, is a chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticide that was banned from U.S. production in 1976, but until recently continued to be imported and applied for occupational and domestic purposes. Lindane is known to cause central nervous system (CNS), immune, cardiovascular, reproductive, liver, and kidney toxicity. The mechanism for which lindane interacts with the CNS has been elucidated, and involves antagonism of the γ-aminobutyric acid/benzodiazepine (GABAA/BZD) receptor. Antagonism of this receptor results in the inhibition of Cl- channel flux, with subsequent convulsions, seizures, and paralysis. This response makes lindane a desirable defense against arthropod pests in agriculture and the home. However, formulation and application of this compound can contribute to human toxicity. In conjunction with this exposure scenario, workers may be subject to both heat and physical stress that may increase their susceptibility to pesticide toxicity by altering their cellular stress response. The kidneys are responsible for maintaining osmotic homeostasis, and are exposed to agents that undergo urinary excretion. The mechanistic action of lindane on the kidneys is not well understood. Lindane, in other organ systems, has been shown to cause cellular damage by generation of free radicals and oxidative stress. Previous research in our laboratory has shown that lindane causes apoptosis in distal tubule cells, and delays renal stress response under hypertonic stress. Characterizing the mechanism of action of lindane under conditions of physiologic stress is necessary to understand the potential hazard cyclodiene pesticides and other organochlorine compounds pose to exposed individuals under baseline conditions, as well as under conditions of physiologic stress. We demonstrated that exposure to lindane results in oxidative damage and dysregulation of glutathione response in renal distal tubule (MDCK) cells. We showed that under conditions of hypertonic stress, lindane-induced oxidative stress resulted in early onset apoptosis and corresponding down-regulated expression of the anti-apoptotic protein, Bcl-xL. Thus, the interaction of lindane with renal peripheral benzodiazepine receptors (PBR) is associated with attenuation of cellular protective proteins, making the cell more susceptible to injury or death. ^

Does diabetes mellitus contribute to the disease burden of vascular dementia?

Background. Vascular dementia (VaD) is the second most common of dementia. Multiple risk factors are associated with VaD, but the individual contribution of each to disease onset and progression is unclear. We examined the relationship between diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM) and the clinical variables of VaD.^ Methods. Data from 593 patients evaluated between June, 2003 and June, 2008 for cognitive impairment were prospectively entered into a database. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of 63 patients who fit the NINDS-AIREN criteria of VaD. The patients were divided into those with DM (VaD-DM, n=29) and those without DM (VaD, n=34). The groups were compared with regard to multiple variables.^ Results. Patients with DM had a significantly earlier onset of VaD (71.9±6.54 vs. 77.2±6.03, p<0.001), a faster rate of decline per year on the mini mental state examination (MMSE; 3.60±1.82 vs. 2.54±1.60 points, p=0.02), and a greater prevalence of neuropsychiatric symptoms (62% vs. 21%, p=0.02) at the time of diagnosis.^ Conclusions. This study shows that a history of pre-morbid DM is associated with an early onset and faster cognitive deterioration in VaD. Moreover, the presence of DM predicts the presence of neuropsychiatric symptoms in patients with VaD. A larger study is needed to verify these associations. It will be important to investigate whether better glycemic control will mitigate the potential effects of DM on VaD.^

Identification and evaluation of candidate genes for inherited retinal -degenerative diseases

Although more than 100 genes associated with inherited retinal disease have been mapped to chromosomal locations, less than half of these genes have been cloned. This text includes identification and evaluation of candidate genes for three autosomal dominant forms of inherited retinal degeneration: atypical vitelliform macular dystrophy (VMD1), cone-rod dystrophy (CORD), and retinitis pigmentosa (RP). ^ VMD1 is a disorder characterized by complete penetrance but extremely variable expressivity, and includes macular or peripheral retinal lesions and peripappilary abnormalitites. In 1984, linkage was reported between VMD1 and soluble glutamate-pyruvate transaminase GPT); however, placement of GPT to 8q24 on linkage maps had been debated, and VMD1 did not show linkage to microsatellite markers in that region. This study excluded linkage between the loci by cloning GPT, identifying the nucleotide substitution associated with the GPT sozymes, and by assaying VMD1 family samples with an RFLP designed to detect the substitution. In addition, linkage of VMD1 to the known dominant macular degeneration loci was excluded. ^ CORD is characterized by early onset of color-vision deficiency, and decreased visual acuity, However, this retinal degeneration progresses to no light perception, severe macular lesion, and “bone-spicule” accumulations in the peripheral retina. In this study, the disorder in a large Texan family was mapped to the CORD2 locus of 19q13, and a mutation in the retina/pineal-specific cone-rod homeobox gene (CRX) was identified as the disease cause. In addition, mutations in CRX were associated with significantly different retinal disease phenotypes, including retinitis pigmentosa and Leber congenital amaurosis. ^ Many of the mutations leading to inherited retinal disorders have been identified in genes like CRX, which are expressed predominantly in the retina and pineal gland. Therefore, a combination of database analysis and laboratory investigation was used to identify 26 novel retina/pineal-specific expressed sequence tag (EST) clusters as candidate genes for inherited retinal disorders. Eight of these genes were mapped into the candidate regions of inherited retinal degeneration loci. ^ Two of the eight clusters mapped into the retinitis pigmentosa RP13 candidate region of 17p13, and were both determined to represent a single gene that is highly expressed in photoreceptors. This gene, the Ah receptor-interacting like protein-1 (AIPL1), was cloned, characterized, and screened for mutations in RP13 patient DNA samples. ^

Factors Associated with Early Versus Late Development of Breast and Ovarian Cancer in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Positive Women

Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) is caused by a mutation in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. Women with a BRCA1/2 mutation are at increased risks for breast and ovarian cancer and often develop cancer at an earlier age than the general population. However, some women with a BRCA1/2 mutation do not develop breast or ovarian cancer under the age of 50 years. There have been no specific studies on BRCA positive women with no cancer prior to age 50, therefore this study sought to investigate factors within these women with no cancer under age 50 with respect to reproductive risk factors, BMI, tumor pathology, screening history, risk-reducing surgeries, and family history. 241 women were diagnosed with cancer prior to age 50, 92 with cancer at age 50 or older, and 20 women were over age 50 with no cancer. Data were stratified based on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation status. Within the cohorts we investigated differences between women who developed cancer prior to age 50 and those who developed cancer at age 50 or older. We also investigated the differences between women who developed cancer at age 50 or older and those who were age 50 or older with no cancer. Of the 92 women with a BRCA1/2 mutation who developed cancer at age 50 or older, 46 developed ovarian cancer first, 45 developed breast cancer, and one had breast and ovarian cancer diagnosed synchronously. BRCA2 carriers diagnosed age 50 or older were more likely to have ER/PR negative breast tumors when compared to BRCA2 carriers who were diagnosed before age 50. This is consistent with one other study that has been performed. Ashkenazi Jewish women with a BRCA1 mutation were more likely to be diagnosed age 50 or older than other ethnicities. Hispanic women with a BRCA2 mutation were more likely to be diagnosed prior to age 50 when compared to other ethnicities. No differences in reproductive factors or BMI were observed. Further characterization of BRCA positive women with no cancer prior to age 50 may aid in finding factors important in the development of breast or ovarian cancer.

Early identification of symptomatic aortic stenosis using echocardiographic data

Background: Heart failure (CHF) is the most frequent and prognostically severe symptom of aortic stenosis (AS), and the most common indication for surgery. The mainstay of treatment for AS is aortic valve replacement (AVR), and the main indication for an AVR is development of symptomatic disease. ACC/AHA guidelines define severe AS as an aortic valve area (AVA) ≤1cm², but there is little data correlating echocardiogram AVA with the onset of symptomatic CHF. We evaluated the risk of developing CHF with progressively decreasing echocardiographic AVA. We also compared echocardiographic AVA with Jet velocity (V2) and indexed AVA (AVAI) to assess the best predictor of development of symptomatic CHF.^ Methods and Results: This retrospective cohort study evaluated 518 patients with asymptomatic moderate or severe AS from a single community based cardiology practice. A total of 925 echocardiograms were performed over an 11-year period. Each echocardiogram was correlated with concurrent clinical assessments while the investigator was blinded to the echocardiogram severity of AS. The Cox Proportional hazards model was used to analyze the relationship between AVA and the development of CHF. The median age of patients at entry was 76.1 years, with 54% males. A total of 116 patients (21.8%) developed new onset CHF during follow-up. Compared to patients with AVA >1.0cm², patients with lower AVA had an exponentially increasing risk of developing CHF for each 0.2cm² decrement in AVA, becoming statistically significant only at an AVA less than 0.8 cm². Also, compared to V2 and AVAI, AVA added more information to assessing risk for development of CHF (p=0.041). ^ Conclusion: In patients with normal or mildly impaired LVEF, the risk of CHF rises exponentially with decreasing valve area and becomes statistically significant after AVA falls below 0.8cm². AVA is a better predictor of CHF when compared to V2 or AVAI.^

Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

Bayesian adaptive designs in early phase clinical trials

There are two practical challenges in the phase I clinical trial conduct: lack of transparency to physicians, and the late onset toxicity. In my dissertation, Bayesian approaches are used to address these two problems in clinical trial designs. The proposed simple optimal designs cast the dose finding problem as a decision making process for dose escalation and deescalation. The proposed designs minimize the incorrect decision error rate to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). For the late onset toxicity problem, a Bayesian adaptive dose-finding design for drug combination is proposed. The dose-toxicity relationship is modeled using the Finney model. The unobserved delayed toxicity outcomes are treated as missing data and Bayesian data augment is employed to handle the resulting missing data. Extensive simulation studies have been conducted to examine the operating characteristics of the proposed designs and demonstrated the designs' good performances in various practical scenarios.^