15 resultados para Disease outbreaks. epidemiologic methods. Spatial Analysis. Epidemics.

em DigitalCommons@The Texas Medical Center


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Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is characterized by a variety of neoplasms occurring at a young age with an apparent autosomal dominant transmission. Individuals in pedigrees with LFS have high incidence of second malignancies. Recently LFS has been found to be associated with germline mutations of a tumor-suppressor gene, p53. Because LFS is rare and indeed not a clear-cut disease, it is not known whether all cases of LFS are attributable to p53 germline mutations and how p53 plays in cancer occurrence in such cancer syndrome families. In the present study, DNAs from constitutive cells of two-hundred and thirty-three family members from ten extended pedigrees were screened for p53 mutations. Six out of the ten LFS families had germline mutations at the p53 locus, including point and deletion mutations. In these six families, 55 out of 146 members were carriers of p53 mutations. Except one, all mutations occurred in exons 5 to 8 (i.e., the "hot spot" region) of the p53 gene. The age-specific penetrance of cancer was estimated after the genotype for each family member at risk was determined. The penetrance was 0.15, 0.29, 0.35, 0.77, and 0.91 by 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 year-old, respectively, in male carriers; 0.19, 0.44, 0.76, and 0.90 by 20, 30, 40, and 50 year-old, respectively, in female carriers. These results indicated that one cannot escape from tumorigenesis if one inherits a p53 mutant allele; at least ninety percent of p53 carriers will develop cancer by the age of 60. To evaluate the possible bias due to the unexamined blood-relatives in LFS families, I performed a simulation analysis in which a p53 genotype was assigned to each unexamined person based on his cancer status and liability to cancer. The results showed that the penetrance estimates were not biased by the unexamined relatives. I also determined the sex, site, and age-specific penetrance of breast cancer in female carriers and lung cancer in male carriers. The penetrance of breast cancer in female carriers was 0.81 by age 45; the penetrance of lung cancer in male carriers was 0.78 by age 60, indicating that p53 play a key role for tumorigenesis in common cancers. ^

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A population-based cross-sectional survey of socio-environmental factors associated with the prevalence of Dracunculus medinensis (guinea worm disease) was conducted in Idere, a rural agricultural community in Ibarapa, Oyo state, Nigeria, during 1982.^ The epidemiologic data were collected by household interview of all 501 households. The environmental data were collected by analysis of water samples collected from all domestic water sources and rainfall records.^ The specific objectives of this research were to: (a) Describe the prevalence of guinea worm disease in Idere during 1982 by age, sex, area of residence, drinking water source, religion and weekly amount of money spent by the household to collect potable drinking water. (b) Compare the characteristics of cases with non-cases of guinea worm in order to identify factors associated with high risk of infection. (c) Investigate domestic water sources for the distribution of Cyclops. (d) Determine the extent of potable water shortage with a view to identifying factors responsible for such shortage in the community. (e) Describe the effects of guinea worm on school attendance during 1980/1982 school years by class and location of school from piped water supply.^ The findings of this research indicate that during 1982, 31.8 percent of Idere's 6,527 residents experienced guinea worm infection, with higher prevalence of infection recorded in males in their most productive years and females in their teenage years. The role of sex and age to risk of higher infection rate was explained in the context of water related exposure and water intake due to dehydration from physical occupational actitives of subgroups.^ Potable water available to residents was considerably below the minimum recommended by WHO for tropical climates, with sixty-eight percent of water needs of the residents coming from unprotected surface water which harbour Cyclops, the obligatory intermediate host of Dracunculus medinensis. An association was found between periods of relative high density of Cyclops in domestic water and rainfall.^ Impact of guinea worm infection on educational activities was considerable and its implications were discussed, including the implications of the research findings in relation to control of guinea worm disease in Ibarapa. ^

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The association between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was spatially analyzed for Harris County, Texas, at the census tract level. The objective was to assess how increased PM2.5 exposure related to CVD mortality in this area while controlling for race, income, education, and age. An estimated exposure raster was created for Harris County using Kriging to estimate the PM2.5 exposure at the census tract level. The PM2.5 exposure and the CVD mortality rates were analyzed in an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model and the residuals were subsequently assessed for spatial autocorrelation. Race, median household income, and age were all found to be significant (p<0.05) predictors in the model. This study found that for every one μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure, holding age and education variables constant, an increase of 16.57 CVD deaths per 100,000 would be predicted for increased minimum exposure values and an increase of 14.47 CVD deaths per 100,000 would be predicted for increased maximum exposure values. This finding supports previous studies associating PM2.5 exposure with CVD mortality. This study further identified the areas of greatest PM2.5 exposure in Harris County as being the geographical locations of populations with the highest risk of CVD (i.e., predominantly older, low-income populations with a predominance of African Americans). The magnitude of the effect of PM2.5 exposure on CVD mortality rates in the study region indicates a need for further community-level studies in Harris County, and suggests that reducing excess PM2.5 exposure would reduce CVD mortality.^

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Epidemiologic case-control studies of small groups of childhood nervous system tumor patients have suggested that parental employment in occupations with exposure to hydrocarbons is a risk factor for disease. The main focus of this case-control study was to assess the paternal occupation at the time of birth of offspring who later developed childhood intracranial and spinal tumors. All children under 15 years of age dying of such tumors in Texas, during the period 1964-1980, were selected as cases. Disease and demographic data were abstracted from death certificates. The birth certificate for each child of the final group of 499 cases was located and parental occupation information, as well as demographic and obstetric data, were collected. The comparison group consisted of a random sample from all Texas live births with the same birth year, race and sex distribution as the cases.^ The paternal occupations were categorized into broad classifications of those involving hydrocarbon exposure versus those that did not, based on the occupation criteria used in the previous studies. Odds ratios did not indicate any increased risk associated with general paternal hydrocarbon exposure in the workplace. In prior studies, increased risk estimates were detected with narrower groups of occupations involving exposure to hydrocarbon materials. The data from this study were classified according to these groups, and again, no increased risks were indicated except for a statistically insignificant but elevated odds ratio for fathers who were paper and pulp mill workers.^ Odds ratios were calculated for specific occupations and industries previously implicated as risk factors. Significantly associated odds ratios (OR) were detected for electricians (OR = 3.5), especially those working for construction companies (OR = 10.0), for employment in the printing occupations (OR = 4.5), particularly graphic arts workers (OR = 21.9), and in the electronics and electronic machinery industries (OR = 3.5). Analysis of the petroleum refining and chemical industries, which were not found in previous study populations, revealed significantly elevated odds ratios of 3.0 for occupations with probable heavy exposure to chemicals and petroleum compounds and 10.0 for salesmen of chemical products. ^

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Background. The purpose of this study was to describe the risk factors and demographics of persons with salmonellosis and shigellosis and to investigate both seasonal and spatial variations in the occurrence of these infections in Texas from 2000 to 2004, utilizing time series analyses and the geographic information system digital mapping methods. ^ Methods. Spatial Analysis: MapInfo software was used to map the distribution of age-adjusted rates of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis in Texas from 2000–2004 by zip codes. Census data on above or below poverty level, household income, highest level of educational attainment, race, ethnicity, and urban/rural community status was obtained from the 2000 Decennial Census for each zip code. The zip codes with the upper 10% and lower 10% were compared using t-tests and logistic regression to determine whether there were any potential risk factors. ^ Temporal analysis. Seasonal patterns in the prevalence of infections in Texas from 2000 to 2003 were determined by performing time-series analysis on the numbers of cases of salmonellosis and shigellosis. A linear regression was also performed to assess for trends in the incidence of each disease, along with auto-correlation and multi-component cosinor analysis. ^ Results. Spatial analysis: Analysis by general linear model showed a significant association between infection rates and age, with young children aged less than 5 and those aged 5–9 years having increased risk of infection for both disease conditions. The data demonstrated that those populations with high percentages of people who attained a higher than high school education were less likely to be represented in zip codes with high rates of shigellosis. However, for salmonellosis, logistic regression models indicated that when compared to populations with high percentages of non-high school graduates, having a high school diploma or equivalent increased the odds of having a high rate of infection. ^ Temporal analysis. For shigellosis, multi-component cosinor analyses were used to determine the approximated cosine curve which represented a statistically significant representation of the time series data for all age groups by sex. The shigellosis results show 2 peaks, with a major peak occurring in June and a secondary peak appearing around October. Salmonellosis results showed a single peak and trough in all age groups with the peak occurring in August and the trough occurring in February. ^ Conclusion. The results from this study can be used by public health agencies to determine the timing of public health awareness programs and interventions in order to prevent salmonellosis and shigellosis from occurring. Because young children depend on adults for their meals, it is important to increase the awareness of day-care workers and new parents about modes of transmission and hygienic methods of food preparation and storage. ^

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West Nile Virus (WNV) is an arboviral disease that has affected hundreds of residents in Harris County, Texas since its introduction in 2002. Persistent infection, lingering sequelae and other long-term symptoms of patients reaffirm the need for prevention of this important vector-borne disease. This study aimed to determine if living within 400m of a water body increases one’s odds of infection with WNV. Additionally, we wanted to determine if one’s proximity to a particular water type or water body source increased one’s odds of infection with WNV.^ 145 cases’ addresses were abstracted from the initial interview and consent records from a cohort of patients (Epidemiology of Arboviral Encephalitis in Houston study, HSC-SPH-03-039). After applying inclusion criteria, 140 cases were identified for analysis. 140 controls were selected for analysis using a population proportionate to size model and US Census Bureau data. MapMarker USA v14 was used to geocode the cases’ addresses. Both cases’ and controls’ coordinates were uploaded onto a Harris County water shapefile in MapInfo Professional v9.5.1. Distance in meters to the closest water source, closest water source type, and closest water source name were recorded.^ Analysis of Variance (p=0.329, R2 = 0.0034) indicated no association between water body distance and risk of WNV disease. Living near a creek (x2 = 11.79, p < 0.001), or the combined group of creek and gully (x 2 = 14.02, p < 0.001) were found to be strongly associated with infection of WNV. Living near Cypress Creek and its feeders (x2 = 15.2, p < 0.001) was found to be strongly associated with WNV infection. We found that creek and gully habitats, particularly Cypress Creek, were preferential for the local disease transmitting Culex quinquefasciatus and reservoir avian population.^

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Objective: This study examined the recent trends and characteristics of reported pertussis in Harris County from 2005-2010. ^ Methods: The study population included surveillance data from all reported pertussis cases from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2010 to Harris County Public Health and Environmental Services (HCPHES). We calculated incidence and attack rates for varying age groups, race/ethnicity, and gender. Spatial analyses were conducted of hot spot and cluster of incident cases in Harris County census tracts. Maps were constructed using geographic information system. ^ Results: Age-specific incidence rates of reported cases of pertussis were highest among infants under a year of age and lowest among adults age 20 and older. Hispanics represented the most cases reported compared to any other race or ethnic group (42% of 483 cases). Age-adjusted rates were highest in 2009 at 9.81 cases per 100,000 population. Only 31.2% of people received at least four of the recommended five doses of vaccine. Spatial analyses revealed statistically significant clusters within the northeast region of Harris County. ^ Conclusions: Hispanic infants are the most at risk group for pertussis. Although 70% of cases had a history of immunization, 41.8% of infants were appropriately vaccinated for their age. Increased vaccination coverage may decrease the incidence of pertussis.^

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Background research consisted of a hospital case series of all adult burn patients (n = 162) admitted to John Sealy Hospital's burn unit from January 1978 to June 1979. Comparisons between occupationally and nonoccupationally burned adults demonstrated that occupationally burned adults were significantly more likely to have been active in the burn injury event and to have changed jobs during the prior year. They were significantly less likely to have physical or mental problems which contributed to sustaining the burn injury. Comparisons between occupational and nonoccupational burn injury events concluded that occupational burn injury events were significantly more likely to involve multiple sources of energy, sparks as the source of ignition and gases as the source of combustion. Other salient characteristics of occupational burn injuries indicated that subsequent research should focus upon lost workday occupational burns and other injuries sustained by blue-collar petrochemical workers employed in Galveston County, Texas.^ Subsequent research consisted of a historical cohort study of occupational injuries sustained in 1979 by a cohort of blue-collar petrochemical workers (n = 1771) who belonged to O.C.A.W. Local 4-449 in Texas City, Texas. Specific cohort injury rates included 15.08 occupational injuries per 100 person work-years, 11.98 lost workday occupational injuries per 100 person work-years, and 1.64 lost workday occupational burn injuries per 100 person work-years. Salient results from this study indicate that burn injuries are a very important type (in terms of both frequency and severity) of occupational injury sustained by blue-collar petrochemical workers, pipefitters are at greatest risk of lost workday injuries and lost workday burn injuries, company-specific experiences are comparable for lost workday occupational injuries, differences among company-specific nonlost workday occupational injury experiences may not be "safety-related", and minimal job-specific experience may not place employees at greater risk of lost workday burn injuries.^

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The pattern of the births during the week has been reported by many studies. The births occurred in weekends are found consistently less then births occurred in weekdays. This study employed two statistical methods, two-way ANOVA and two-way Friedman's test to analyse the daily variations in amount of births of 222,735 births from 2005-2007 in Harris County, Texas. The two methods were compared on their assumptions, procedures and results. Both of the tests showed a significant result which indicated that the births through the week are not uniformly distributed. The result of multiple comparison demonstrated the births occurring on weekends were significantly different than the births occurring on weekdays with least amount on Sundays.^

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In geographical epidemiology, maps of disease rates and disease risk provide a spatial perspective for researching disease etiology. For rare diseases or when the population base is small, the rate and risk estimates may be unstable. Empirical Bayesian (EB) methods have been used to spatially smooth the estimates by permitting an area estimate to "borrow strength" from its neighbors. Such EB methods include the use of a Gamma model, of a James-Stein estimator, and of a conditional autoregressive (CAR) process. A fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process is proposed. One advantage of this fully Bayesian analysis is that it can be implemented simply by using repeated sampling from the posterior densities. Use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique such as Gibbs sampler was not necessary. Direct resampling from the posterior densities provides exact small sample inferences instead of the approximate asymptotic analyses of maximum likelihood methods (Clayton & Kaldor, 1987). Further, the proposed CAR model provides for covariates to be included in the model. A simulation demonstrates the effect of sample size on the fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process. The methods are applied to lip cancer data from Scotland, and the results are compared. ^

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To reach the goals established by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) and the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) STOP TB USA, measures must be taken to curtail a future peak in Tuberculosis (TB) incidence and speed the currently stagnant rate of TB elimination. Both efforts will require, at minimum, the consideration and understanding of the third dimension of TB transmission: the location-based spread of an airborne pathogen among persons known and unknown to each other. This consideration will require an elucidation of the areas within the U.S. that have endemic TB. The Houston Tuberculosis Initiative (HTI) was a population-based active surveillance of confirmed Houston/Harris County TB cases from 1995–2004. Strengths in this dataset include the molecular characterization of laboratory confirmed cases, the collection of geographic locations (including home addresses) frequented by cases, and the HTI time period that parallels a decline in TB incidence in the United States (U.S.). The HTI dataset was used in this secondary data analysis to implement a GIS analysis of TB cases, the locations frequented by cases, and their association with risk factors associated with TB transmission. ^ This study reports, for the first time, the incidence of TB among the homeless in Houston, Texas. The homeless are an at-risk population for TB disease, yet they are also a population whose TB incidence has been unknown and unreported due to their non-enumeration. The first section of this dissertation identifies local areas in Houston with endemic TB disease. Many Houston TB cases who reported living in these endemic areas also share the TB risk factor of current or recent homelessness. Merging the 2004–2005 Houston enumeration of the homeless with historical HTI surveillance data of TB cases in Houston enabled this first-time report of TB risk among the homeless in Houston. The homeless were more likely to be US-born, belong to a genotypic cluster, and belong to a cluster of a larger size. The calculated average incidence among homeless persons was 411/100,000, compared to 9.5/100,000 among housed. These alarming rates are not driven by a co-infection but by social determinants. The unsheltered persons were hospitalized more days and required more follow-up time by staff than those who reported a steady housing situation. The homeless are a specific example of the increased targeting of prevention dollars that could occur if TB rates were reported for specific areas with known health disparities rather than as a generalized rate normalized over a diverse population. ^ It has been estimated that 27% of Houstonians use public transportation. The city layout allows bus routes to run like veins connecting even the most diverse of populations within the metropolitan area. Secondary data analysis of frequent bus use (defined as riding a route weekly) among TB cases was assessed for its relationship with known TB risk factors. The spatial distribution of genotypic clusters associated with bus use was assessed, along with the reported routes and epidemiologic-links among cases belonging to the identified clusters. ^ TB cases who reported frequent bus use were more likely to have demographic and social risk factors associated with poverty, immune suppression and health disparities. An equal proportion of bus riders and non-bus riders were cultured for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, yet 75% of bus riders were genotypically clustered, indicating recent transmission, compared to 56% of non-bus riders (OR=2.4, 95%CI(2.0, 2.8), p<0.001). Bus riders had a mean cluster size of 50.14 vs. 28.9 (p<0.001). Second order spatial analysis of clustered fingerprint 2 (n=122), a Beijing family cluster, revealed geographic clustering among cases based on their report of bus use. Univariate and multivariate analysis of routes reported by cases belonging to these clusters found that 10 of the 14 clusters were associated with use. Individual Metro routes, including one route servicing the local hospitals, were found to be risk factors for belonging to a cluster shown to be endemic in Houston. The routes themselves geographically connect the census tracts previously identified as having endemic TB. 78% (15/23) of Houston Metro routes investigated had one or more print groups reporting frequent use for every HTI study year. We present data on three specific but clonally related print groups and show that bus-use is clustered in time by route and is the only known link between cases in one of the three prints: print 22. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

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In this study, we present a trilocus sequence typing (TLST) scheme based on intragenic regions of two antigenic genes, ace and salA (encoding a collagen/laminin adhesin and a cell wall-associated antigen, respectively), and a gene associated with antibiotic resistance, lsa (encoding a putative ABC transporter), for subspecies differentiation of Enterococcus faecalis. Each of the alleles was analyzed using 50 E. faecalis isolates representing 42 diverse multilocus sequence types (ST(M); based on seven housekeeping genes) and four groups of clonally linked (by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis [PFGE]) isolates. The allelic profiles and/or concatenated sequences of the three genes agreed with multilocus sequence typing (MLST) results for typing of 49 of the 50 isolates; in addition to the one exception, two isolates were found to have identical TLST types but were single-locus variants (differing by a single nucleotide) by MLST and were therefore also classified as clonally related by MLST. TLST was also comparable to PFGE for establishing short-term epidemiological relationships, typing all isolates classified as clonally related by PFGE with the same type. TLST was then applied to representative isolates (of each PFGE subtype and isolation year) of a collection of 48 hospital isolates and demonstrated the same relationships between isolates of an outbreak strain as those found by MLST and PFGE. In conclusion, the TLST scheme described here was shown to be successful for investigating short-term epidemiology in a hospital setting and may provide an alternative to MLST for discriminating isolates.

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C-Reactive Protein (CRP) is a biomarker indicating tissue damage, inflammation, and infection. High-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) is an emerging biomarker often used to estimate an individual’s risk for future coronary heart disease (CHD). hsCRP levels falling below 1.00 mg/l indicate a low risk for developing CHD, levels ranging between 1.00 mg/l and 3.00 mg/l indicate an elevated risk, and levels exceeding 3.00 mg/l indicate high risk. Multiple Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have identified a number of genetic polymorphisms which influence CRP levels. SNPs implicated in such studies have been found in or near genes of interest including: CRP, APOE, APOC, IL-6, HNF1A, LEPR, and GCKR. A strong positive correlation has also been found to exist between CRP levels and BMI, a known risk factor for CHD and a state of chronic inflammation. We conducted a series of analyses designed to identify loci which interact with BMI to influence CRP levels in a subsample of European-Americans in the ARIC cohort. In a stratified GWA analysis, 15 genetic regions were identified as having significantly (p-value < 2.00*10-3) distinct effects on hsCRP levels between the two obesity strata: lean (18.50 kg/m2 < BMI < 24.99 kg/m2) and obese (BMI ≥ 30.00 kg/m2). A GWA analysis performed on all individuals combined (i.e. not a priori stratified for obesity status) with the inclusion of an additional parameter for BMI by gene interaction, identified 11 regions which interact with BMI to influence hsCRP levels. Two regions containing the genes GJA5 and GJA8 (on chromosome 1) and FBXO11 (on chromosome 2) were identified in both methods of analysis suggesting that these genes possibly interact with BMI to influence hsCRP levels. We speculate that atrial fibrillation (AF), age-related cataracts and the TGF-β pathway may be the biological processes influenced by the interaction of GJA5, GJA8 and FBXO11, respectively, with BMI to cause changes in hsCRP levels. Future studies should focus on the influence of gene x bmi interaction on AF, age-related cataracts and TGF-β.

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Background. Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder (AD/HD) diagnosis in children and adolescents has been on the rise over the last couple of decades and a multitude of studies have been conducted in an aim to better understand the disease. Literature has explored the role of several factors suspected of contributing to development of the disease, including: prenatal smoking exposures, environmental exposures, and low-birth weight. However, there is very limited reporting of fetal/infant exposure to antidepressants and prescription medications and the long-term behavioral outcomes, namely development of AD/HD. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between mother's exposure to prescription medications and/or antidepressants around the time of conception, during pregnancy, or while breastfeeding and the development of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in offspring. Methods. Secondary analysis of data from a case-control study was performed. Exposure histories were collected for the mother and offspring. Data were collected using a secure, confidential, self-report, online survey to evaluate the relationship between antidepressant and/or prescription medication exposure and the development of AD/HD. The period of exposure to these drugs was defined as: around the time of conception, during pregnancy, or while breastfeeding. Cases were defined as a child who had been diagnosed with AD/HD. Controls were defined as a child who had not been diagnosed with AD/HD. Results. Prescription medication and antidepressant medication exposures around the time of conception, during pregnancy, or while breastfeeding were not associated with development of AD/HD. However, traumatic brain injury (OR=2.77 (1.61–4.77)) and preterm birth (OR=1.48 (1.04–2.12)) were identified as potential risk factors. These results support existing literature on AD/HD, but future work must be undertaken to better evaluate fetal/infant medication exposures and long-term behavioral outcomes.^

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Evaporative cooling systems continue to be associated with outbreaks of Legionnaires’ disease despite widely available maintenance guidelines intended to reduce these outbreaks. Yet, the guidelines vary widely regarding the recommendations that are made to maintain evaporative cooling systems and it is unclear whether guidelines were in place or, if they were, whether they were being followed when the outbreaks of Legionnaires’ disease occurred. Thus, this study was designed to conduct two systematic reviews of (1) evaporative cooling system maintenance guidelines; and (2) published Legionnaires’ disease outbreaks. For each maintenance guideline identified in the systematic review, recommended maintenance practices were abstracted and similarities and/or differences in the reported recommendations were assessed. Following the systematic review of outbreak investigations that meet the inclusion criteria established for the study, information about the state of the evaporative cooling system during the outbreak investigation was abstracted to summarize, when reported, which maintenance practices were implemented. As expected, the recommended maintenance procedures varied greatly across the guidelines and were not always specific. Overall, the outbreak investigations tended to report similar maintenance issues that were unclear in the maintenance guidelines. Generally, these maintenance issues were biocide use, microbiological testing, frequency of general inspections, and protocols and frequency of total system cleanings. The role in which non-standardized and generalized maintenance guidelines plays in the continued association between Legionnaires’ disease and evaporative cooling systems is still not fully understood. However, this study suggests that more specific and standardized maintenance guidelines, that have been scientifically established to be effective in controlling Legionella bacteria, are needed and then these guidelines must be properly implemented in order to help reduce further Legionnaires’ disease outbreaks associated with evaporative cooling systems.^