Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^

The number and timing of time -dependent covariate measurements for the Cox regression model

The problem of analyzing data with updated measurements in the time-dependent proportional hazards model arises frequently in practice. One available option is to reduce the number of intervals (or updated measurements) to be included in the Cox regression model. We empirically investigated the bias of the estimator of the time-dependent covariate while varying the effect of failure rate, sample size, true values of the parameters and the number of intervals. We also evaluated how often a time-dependent covariate needs to be collected and assessed the effect of sample size and failure rate on the power of testing a time-dependent effect.^ A time-dependent proportional hazards model with two binary covariates was considered. The time axis was partitioned into k intervals. The baseline hazard was assumed to be 1 so that the failure times were exponentially distributed in the ith interval. A type II censoring model was adopted to characterize the failure rate. The factors of interest were sample size (500, 1000), type II censoring with failure rates of 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, and three values for each of the non-time-dependent and time-dependent covariates (1/4,1/2,3/4).^ The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate decreased as sample size and number of intervals increased whereas the mean of the bias increased as failure rate and true values of the covariates increased. The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient was smallest when all of the updated measurements were used in the model compared with two models that used selected measurements of the time-dependent covariate. For the model that included all the measurements, the coverage rates of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate was in most cases 90% or more except when the failure rate was high (0.20). The power associated with testing a time-dependent effect was highest when all of the measurements of the time-dependent covariate were used. An example from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program Cooperative Research Group is presented. ^

TUMOR PROGRESSION: ANALYSIS OF THE INSTABILITY OF THE METASTATIC PHENOTYPE, SENSITIVITY TO RADIATION AND CHEMOTHERAPY (PHENOTYPIC DRIFT, BREAST CANCER)

The major complications for tumor therapy are (i) tumor spread (metastasis); (ii) the mixed nature of tumors (heterogeneity); and (iii) the capacity of tumors to evolve (progress). To study these tumor characteristics, the rat 13762NF mammary adenocarcinoma was cloned and studied for metastatic properties and sensitivities to therapy (chemotherapy, radiation and hyperthermia). The cell clones were heterogeneous and no correlation between metastatic potential and therapeutic sensitivities was observed. Further, these phenotypes were unstable during passage in vitro; yet, the changes were clone dependent and reproducible using different cryoprotected cell stocks. To understand the phenotypic instability, subclones were isolated from low and high passage cell clones. Each subclone possessed a unique composite phenotype. Again, no apparent correlation was seen between metastatic potential and sensitivity to therapy. The results demonstrated that (1) tumor cells are heterogeneous for multiple phenotypes; (2) tumor cells are unstable for multiple phenotypes; (3) the magnitude, direction and time of occurrence of phenotypic drift is clone dependent; (4) the sensitivity of cell clones to ionizing radiation (gamma or heat) and chemotherapy agents is independent of their metastatic potential; (5) shifts in metastatic potential and sensitivity to therapy may occur simultaneously but are not linked; and (6) tumor cells independently diverge to form several subpopulations with unique phenotypic profiles. ^

The public health applications of law enforcement medical direction: A practical experience with the Dallas Police Department

In 2008, 132 law enforcement officers were killed in the line of duty in The United States. Additionally, some have explored both the public health implications of interactions with law enforcement as well as the potential benefits of the use of law enforcement officers as public health and emergency healthcare providers. By virtue of these novel analyses and techniques, professional medical direction of the emerging specialty of law enforcement medicine is needed. This paper, an analysis of law enforcement medical direction through a look at the Dallas Police Medical Direction Program, seeks to examine origins of law enforcement medicine through a comprehensive literature review, as well as begin to define to core competencies of law enforcement medical direction. ^ The unique intersection of public health, medicine and law enforcement, and the subsequent specialty that is developing to manage this interface, is in its relative infancy. An analysis of this nature is in order to begin to lay down the foundations necessary for future study and improvements in the field. ^