Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

The public health applications of law enforcement medical direction: A practical experience with the Dallas Police Department

In 2008, 132 law enforcement officers were killed in the line of duty in The United States. Additionally, some have explored both the public health implications of interactions with law enforcement as well as the potential benefits of the use of law enforcement officers as public health and emergency healthcare providers. By virtue of these novel analyses and techniques, professional medical direction of the emerging specialty of law enforcement medicine is needed. This paper, an analysis of law enforcement medical direction through a look at the Dallas Police Medical Direction Program, seeks to examine origins of law enforcement medicine through a comprehensive literature review, as well as begin to define to core competencies of law enforcement medical direction. ^ The unique intersection of public health, medicine and law enforcement, and the subsequent specialty that is developing to manage this interface, is in its relative infancy. An analysis of this nature is in order to begin to lay down the foundations necessary for future study and improvements in the field. ^

Detection of nonrandom association of alleles from the distribution of the number of heterozygous loci in a sample.

The distribution of the number of heterozygous loci in two randomly chosen gametes or in a random diploid zygote provides information regarding the nonrandom association of alleles among different genetic loci. Two alternative statistics may be employed for detection of nonrandom association of genes of different loci when observations are made on these distributions: observed variance of the number of heterozygous loci (s2k) and a goodness-of-fit criterion (X2) to contrast the observed distribution with that expected under the hypothesis of random association of genes. It is shown, by simulation, that s2k is statistically more efficient than X2 to detect a given extent of nonrandom association. Asymptotic normality of s2k is justified, and X2 is shown to follow a chi-square (chi 2) distribution with partial loss of degrees of freedom arising because of estimation of parameters from the marginal gene frequency data. Whenever direct evaluations of linkage disequilibrium values are possible, tests based on maximum likelihood estimators of linkage disequilibria require a smaller sample size (number of zygotes or gametes) to detect a given level of nonrandom association in comparison with that required if such tests are conducted on the basis of s2k. Summarization of multilocus genotype (or haplotype) data, into the different number of heterozygous loci classes, thus, amounts to appreciable loss of information.

Classification of support staff in a consortium medical library: a case study.

A representative committee of Houston Academy of Medicine-Texas Medical Center Library staff and faculty, under the direction of the library administration, successfully redesigned a job classification system for the library's nonprofessional staff. In the new system all nonprofessionals are assigned to one of five grade levels, each with a corresponding salary range. To determine its appropriate grade level each job is analyzed and assigned a numerical value using a point system based on a set of five factors, each of which is assigned a relative number of points. The factors used to measure jobs are: education and experience, complexity of work, administrative accountability, manual skill, and contact with users. Each factor is described according to degrees, so that a job can be given partial credit for a factor. An advisory staff classification committee now participates in the ongoing administration of the classification system.

Role of the cytoplasmic domain in Anabaena sensory rhodopsin photocycling: vectoriality of Schiff base deprotonation.

Light-induced electric signals in intact E. coli cells generated by heterologously expressed full-length and C-terminally truncated versions of Anabaena sensory rhodopsin (ASR) demonstrate that the charge movements within the membrane-embedded part of the molecule are stringently controlled by the cytoplasmic domain. In particular, truncation inverts the direction of proton movement during Schiff base deprotonation from outward to cytoplasmic. Truncation also alters faster charge movements that occur before Schiff base deprotonation. Asp(217) as previously shown by FTIR serves as a proton acceptor in the truncated ASR but not in the full-length version, and its mutation to Asn restores the natural outward direction of proton movement. Introduction of a potential negative charge (Ser(86) to Asp) on the cytoplasmic side favors a cytoplasmic direction of proton release from the Schiff base. In contrast, mutation of the counterion Asp(75) to Glu reverses the photocurrent to the outward direction in the truncated pigment, and in both truncated and full-length versions accelerates Schiff base deprotonation more than 10-fold. The communication between the cytoplasmic domain and the membrane-embedded photoactive site of ASR demonstrated here is likely to derive from the receptor's use of a cytoplasmic protein for signal transduction, as has been suggested previously from binding studies.

Molecular analysis of cell surface $\beta$1,4-galactosyltransferase function during lamellipodal formation, cell polarization, and cell migration

The rate and direction of fibroblast locomotion is regulated by the formation of lamellipodia. In turn, lamellipodal formation is modulated in part by adhesion of that region of the cell from which the lamellipodia will extend or orginate. Cell surface $\beta$1,4-galactosyltransferase (GalTase) is one molecule that has been demonstrated to mediate cellular interactions with extracellular matrices. In the case of fibroblasts, GalTase must be associated with the actin cytoskeleton in order to mediate cellular adhesion to laminin. The object of this study was to determine how altering the quantity of GalTase capable of associating with the cytoskeleton impacts cell motility. Stably transfected cell lines were generated that have increased or decreased levels of surface GalTase relative to its cytoskeleton-binding sites. Biochemical analyses of these cells reveals that there is a limited number of sites on the cytoskeleton with which GalTase can interact. Altering the ratio of GalTase to its cytoskeleton binding sites does not affect the cells' abilities to spread, nor does it affect the localization of cytoskeletally-bound GalTase. It does, however, appear to interfere with stress fiber bundling. Cells with altered GalTase:cytoskeleton ratios change their polarity of laminin more frequently, as compared to controls. Therefore, the ectopic expression of GalTase cytoplasmic domains impairs a cell's ability to control the placement of lamellipodia. Cells were then tested for their ability to respond to a directional stimulus, a gradient of platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF). It was found that the ability of a cell to polarize in response to a gradient of PDGF is directly proportional to the quantity of GalTase associated with its cytoskeleton. Finally, the rate of unidirectional cell migration on laminin was found to be directly dependent upon surface GalTase expression and is inversely related to the ability of surface GalTase to interact with the cytoskeleton. It is therefore proposed that cytoskeletal assembly and lamellipodal formation can be regulated by the altering the ratio of cytoplasmic domains for specific matrix receptors, such as GalTase, relative to their cytoskeleton-binding sites. ^

An analysis of two methods for the classification of stage of readiness to obtain repeat mammography screening

Background and purpose: Breast cancer continues to be a health problem for women, representing 28 percent of all female cancers and remaining one of the leading causes of death for women. Breast cancer incidence rates become substantial before the age of 50. After menopause, breast cancer incidence rates continue to increase with age creating a long-lasting source of concern (Harris et al., 1992). Mammography, a technique for the detection of breast tumors in their nonpalpable stage when they are most curable, has taken on considerable importance as a public health measure. The lifetime risk of breast cancer is approximately 1 in 9 and occurs over many decades. Recommendations are that screening be periodic in order to detect cancer at early stages. These recommendations, largely, are not followed. Not only are most women not getting regular mammograms, but this circumstance is particularly the case among older women where regular mammography has been proven to reduce mortality by approximately 30 percent. The purpose of this project was to increase our understanding of factors that are associated with stage of readiness to obtain subsequent mammograms. A secondary purpose of this research was to suggest further conceptual considerations toward the extension of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behavior change to repeat screening mammography. ^ Methods. A sample (n = 1,222) of women 50 years and older in a large multi-specialty clinic in Houston, Texas was surveyed by mail questionnaire regarding their previous screening experience and stage of readiness to obtain repeat screening. A computerized database, maintained on all women who undergo mammography at the clinic, was used to identify women who are eligible for the project. The major statistical technique employed to select the significant variables and to examine the man and interaction effects of independent variables on dependent variables was polychotomous stepwise, logistic regression. A prediction model for each stage of readiness definition was estimated. The expected probabilities for stage of readiness were calculated to assess the magnitude and direction of significant predictors. ^ Results. Analysis showed that both ways of defining stage of readiness for obtaining a screening mammogram were associated with specific constructs, including decisional balance and processes of the change. ^ Conclusions. The results of the present study demonstrate that the TTM appears to translate to repeat mammography screening. Findings in the current study also support finding of previous studies that suggest that stage of readiness is associated with respondent decisional balance and the processes of change. ^

Logistic regression models for ordinal response: A study of self-efficacy in colorectal cancer screening

The ordinal logistic regression models are used to analyze the dependant variable with multiple outcomes that can be ranked, but have been underutilized. In this study, we describe four logistic regression models for analyzing the ordinal response variable. ^ In this methodological study, the four regression models are proposed. The first model uses the multinomial logistic model. The second is adjacent-category logit model. The third is the proportional odds model and the fourth model is the continuation-ratio model. We illustrate and compare the fit of these models using data from the survey designed by the University of Texas, School of Public Health research project PCCaSO (Promoting Colon Cancer Screening in people 50 and Over), to study the patient’s confidence in the completion colorectal cancer screening (CRCS). ^ The purpose of this study is two fold: first, to provide a synthesized review of models for analyzing data with ordinal response, and second, to evaluate their usefulness in epidemiological research, with particular emphasis on model formulation, interpretation of model coefficients, and their implications. Four ordinal logistic models that are used in this study include (1) Multinomial logistic model, (2) Adjacent-category logistic model [9], (3) Continuation-ratio logistic model [10], (4) Proportional logistic model [11]. We recommend that the analyst performs (1) goodness-of-fit tests, (2) sensitivity analysis by fitting and comparing different models.^

Financial impact of the Medicare prospective payment system on long term acute care hospitals

Objective. Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACs) are subject to Medicare rules because they accept Medicare and Medicaid patients. In October 2002, Medicare changed the LTAC reimbursement formulas, from a cost basis system to a Prospective Payment System (PPS). This study examines whether the PPS has negatively affected the financial performance of the LTAC hospitals in the period following the reimbursement change (2003-2006), as compared to the period prior to the change (1999-2003), and if so, to what extent. This study will also examine whether the PPS has resulted in a decreased average patient length of stay (LOS) in the LTAC hospitals for the period of 2003-2006 as compared to the prior period of 1999-2003, and if so, to what extent. ^ Methods. The study group consists of two large LTAC hospital systems, Kindred Healthcare Inc. and Select Specialty Hospitals of Select Medical Corporation. Financial data and operational indicators were reviewed, tabulated and dichotomized into two groups, covering the two periods: 1999-2002 and 2003-2006. The financial data included net annual revenues, net income, revenue per patient per day and profit margins. It was hypothesized that the profit margins for the LTAC hospitals were reduced because of the new PPS. Operational indicators, such as annual admissions, annual patient days, and average LOS were analyzed. It was hypothesized that LOS for the LTAC hospitals would have decreased. Case mix index, defined as the weighted average of patients’ DRGs for each hospital system, was not available to cast more light on the direction of LOS. ^ Results. This assessment found that the negative financial impacts did not materialize; instead, financial performance improved during the PPS period (2003-2006). The income margin percentage under the PPS increased for Kindred by 24%, and for Select by 77%. Thus, the study’s working hypothesis of reduced income margins for the LTACs under the PPS was contradicted. As to the average patient length of stay, LOS decreased from 34.7 days to 29.4 days for Kindred, and from 30.5 days to 25.3 days for Select. Thus, on the issue of LTAC shorter length of stay, the study’s working hypothesis was confirmed. ^ Conclusion. Overall, there was no negative financial effect on the LTAC hospitals during the period of 2003-2006 following Medicare implementation of the PPS in October 2002. On the contrary, the income margins improved significantly. ^ During the same period, LOS decreased following the implementation of the PPS. This was consistent with the LTAC hospitals’ pursuit of financial incentives.^

Financial impact of the Medicare prospective payment system on long term acute care hospitals

Objective. Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACs) are subject to Medicare rules because they accept Medicare and Medicaid patients. In October 2002, Medicare changed the LTAC reimbursement formulas, from a cost basis system to a Prospective Payment System (PPS). This study examines whether the PPS has negatively affected the financial performance of the LTAC hospitals in the period following the reimbursement change (2003–2006), as compared to the period prior to the change (1999–2003), and if so, to what extent. This study will also examine whether the PPS has resulted in a decreased average patient length of stay (LOS) in the LTAC hospitals for the period of 2003–2006 as compared to the prior period of 1999-2003, and if so, to what extent. ^ Methods. The study group consists of two large LTAC hospital systems, Kindred Healthcare Inc. and Select Specialty Hospitals of Select Medical Corporation. Financial data and operational indicators were reviewed, tabulated and dichotomized into two groups, covering the two periods: 1999–2002 and 2003–2006. The financial data included net annual revenues, net income, revenue per patient per day and profit margins. It was hypothesized that the profit margins for the LTAC hospitals were reduced because of the new PPS. Operational indicators, such as annual admissions, annual patient days, and average LOS were analyzed. It was hypothesized that LOS for the LTAC hospitals would have decreased. Case mix index, defined as the weighted average of patients’ DRGs for each hospital system, was not available to cast more light on the direction of LOS. ^ Results. This assessment found that the negative financial impacts did not materialize; instead, financial performance improved during the PPS period (2003–2006). The income margin percentage under the PPS increased for Kindred by 24%, and for Select by 77%. Thus, the study’s working hypothesis of reduced income margins for the LTACs under the PPS was contradicted. As to the average patient length of stay, LOS decreased from 34.7 days to 29.4 days for Kindred, and from 30.5 days to 25.3 days for Select. Thus, on the issue of LTAC shorter length of stay, the study’s working hypothesis was confirmed. ^ Conclusion. Overall, there was no negative financial effect on the LTAC hospitals during the period of 2003–2006 following Medicare implementation of the PPS in October 2002. On the contrary, the income margins improved significantly. ^ During the same period, LOS decreased following the implementation of the PPS. This was consistent with the LTAC hospitals’ pursuit of financial incentives. ^

The association between diabetes and hepatitis C: A systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Background. Several studies have proposed a link between type 2 Diabetes mellitus (DM2) and Hepatitis C infection (HCV) with conflicting results. Since DM2 and HCV have high prevalence, establishing a link between the two may guide further studies aimed at DM2 prevention. A systematic review was conducted to estimate the magnitude and direction of association between DM2 and HCV. Temporality was assessed from cohort studies and case-control studies where such information was available. ^ Methods. MEDLINE searches were conducted for studies that provided risk estimates and fulfill criteria regarding the definition of exposure (HCV) and outcomes (DM2). HCV was defined in terms of method of diagnosis, laboratory technique and method of data collection; DM2 was defined in terms of the classification [World Health Organization (WHO) and American Diabetes Association (ADA)] 1-3 used for diagnosis, laboratory technique and method of data collection. Standardized searches and data abstraction for construction of tables was performed. Unadjusted or adjusted measures of association for individual studies were obtained or calculated from the full text of the studies. Template designed by Dr. David Ramsey. ^ Results. Forty-six studies out of one hundred and nine potentially eligible articles finally met the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were classified separately based on the study design as cross-sectional (twenty four), case-control (fifteen) or cohort studies (seven). The cohort studies showed a three-fold high (confidence interval 1.66–6.29) occurrence of DM2 in individuals with HCV compared to those who were unexposed to HCV and cross sectional studies had a summary odds ratio of 2.53 (1.96, 3.25). In case control studies, the summary odds ratio for studies done in subjects with DM2 was 3.61 (1.93, 6.74); in HCV, it was 2.30 (1.56, 3.38); and all fifteen studies, together, yielded an odds ratio of 2.60 (1.82, 3.73). ^ Conclusion. The above results support the hypothesis that there is an association between DM and HCV. The temporal relationship evident from cohort studies and proposed pathogenic mechanisms also suggest that HCV predisposes patients to development of DM2. Further cohort or prospective studies are needed, however, to determine whether treatment of HCV infections prevents development of DM2.^

A comparative analysis of CHIP Perinatal policy in twelve states

The purpose of this comparative analysis of CHIP Perinatal policy (42 CFR § 457) was to provide a basis for understanding the variation in policy outputs across the twelve states that, as of June 2007, implemented the Unborn Child rule. This Department of Health and Human Services regulation expanded in 2002 the definition of “child” to include the period from conception to birth, allowing states to consider an unborn child a “targeted low-income child” and therefore eligible for SCHIP coverage. ^ Specific study aims were to (1) describe typologically the structural and contextual features of the twelve states that adopted a CHIP Perinatal policy; (2) describe and differentiate among the various designs of CHIP Perinatal policy implemented in the states; and (3) develop a conceptual model that links the structural and contextual features of the adopting states to differences in the forms the policy assumed, once it was implemented. ^ Secondary data were collected from publicly available information sources to describe characteristics of states’ political system, health system, economic system, sociodemographic context and implemented policy attributes. I posited that socio-demographic differences, political system differences and health system differences would directly account for the observed differences in policy output among the states. ^ Exploratory data analysis techniques, which included median polishing and multidimensional scaling, were employed to identify compelling patterns in the data. Scaled results across model components showed that economic system was most closely related to policy output, followed by health system. Political system and socio-demographic characteristics were shown to be weakly associated with policy output. Goodness-of-fit measures for MDS solutions implemented across states and model components, in one- and two-dimensions, were very good. ^ This comparative policy analysis of twelve states that adopted and implemented HHS Regulation 42 C.F.R. § 457 contributes to existing knowledge in three areas: CHIP Perinatal policy, public health policy and policy sciences. First, the framework allows for the identification of CHIP Perinatal program design possibilities and provides a basis for future studies that evaluate policy impact or performance. Second, studies of policy determinants are not well represented in the health policy literature. Thus, this study contributes to the development of the literature in public health policy. Finally, the conceptual framework for policy determinants developed in this study suggests new ways for policy makers and practitioners to frame policy arguments, encouraging policy change or reform. ^

Utilization behavior of the elderly in an HMO: A causal analysis

Planning and providing health care services for the elderly represents a major challenge to the health care system. One part of that challenge is the identification of those factors which determine the utilization of services by this population. The purpose of this study is to explain the use of health care services by elderly subscribers in a prepaid group health plan, using the theoretical framework developed by Andersen and Aday. The impact of the predisposing, enabling and need factors on utilization was modelled through a structural equation approach using LISREL. The data were derived from Kaiser-Permanente's Medicare Prospective Payment Project, August 1980-December 1982. Need factors, in general, were the most significant determinants of utilization, with the predisposing and enabling factors found to be secondary but necessary links in the causal chain. The model was fitted to the data from the youngest age group (65-74 years) and then evaluated for goodness of fit in the two older groups (75-84 and 85+ years). Implications of the study's findings and suggestions for further modelling the utilization behavior of the elderly are discussed. ^

Design of long-term animal bioassay for low-dose extrapolation using a multistage model

Conventional designs of animal bioassays allocate the same number of animals into control and dose groups to explore the spontaneous and induced tumor incidence rates, respectively. The purpose of such bioassays are (a) to determine whether or not the substance exhibits carcinogenic properties, and (b) if so, to estimate the human response at relatively low doses. In this study, it has been found that the optimal allocation to the experimental groups which, in some sense, minimize the error of the estimated response for low dose extrapolation is associated with the dose level and tumor risk. The number of dose levels has been investigated at the affordable experimental cost. The pattern of the administered dose, 1 MTD, 1/2 MTD, 1/4 MTD,....., etc. plus control, gives the most reasonable arrangement for the low dose extrapolation purpose. The arrangement of five dose groups may make the highest dose trivial. A four-dose design can circumvent this problem and has also one degree of freedom for testing the goodness-of-fit of the response model.^ An example using the data on liver tumors induced in mice in a lifetime study of feeding dieldrin (Walker et al., 1973) is implemented with the methodology. The results are compared with conclusions drawn from other studies. ^

SOCIAL AND BIOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF SHORT-TERM GROWTH VELOCITY AMONG PRESCHOOLERS OF RURAL GUATEMALA: A PATH ANALYSIS APPROACH (WEIGHT-GAIN, IRON DEFICIENCY, GASTROINTESTINAL SYMPTOMS)

This dissertation develops and tests through path analysis a theoretical model to explain how socioeconomic, socioenvironmental, and biologic risk factors simultaneously influence each other to further produce short-term, depressed growth in preschoolers. Three areas of risk factors were identified: child's proximal environment, maturational stage, and biological vulnerability. The theoretical model represented both the conceptual framework and the nature and direction of the hypotheses. Original research completed in 1978-80 and in 1982 provided the background data. It was analyzed first by nested-analysis of variance, followed by path analysis. The study provided evidence of mild iron deficiency and gastrointestinal symptomatology in the etiology of depressed, short-term weight gain. Also, there was evidence suggesting that family resources for material and social survival significantly contribute to the variability of short-term, age-adjusted growth velocity. These results challenge current views of unifocal intervention, whether for prevention or control. For policy formulations, though, the mechanisms underlying any set of interlaced relationships must be decoded. Theoretical formulations here proposed should be reassessed under a more extensive research design. It is suggested that studies should be undertaken where social changes are actually in progress; otherwise, nutritional epidemiology in developing countries operates somewhere between social reality and research concepts, with little grasp of its real potential. The study stresses that there is a connection between substantive theory, empirical observation, and policy issues. ^