Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

Survey of shift and work tolerance of City of Houston emergency medical service personnel

This study of ambulance workers for the emergency medical services of the City of Houston studied the factors related to shiftwork tolerance and intolerance. The EMS personnel work a 24-hour shift with rotating days of the week. Workers are assigned to A, B, C, D shift, each of which rotate 24-hours on, 24-hours off, 24-hours on and 4 days off. One-hundred and seventy-six male EMTs, paramedics and chauffeurs from stations of varying levels of activity were surveyed. The sample group ranged in age from 20 to 45. The average tenure on the job was 8.2 years. Over 68% of the workers held a second job, the majority of which worked over 20 hours a week at the second position.^ The survey instrument was a 20-page questionnaire modeled after the Folkard Standardized Shiftwork Index. In addition to demographic data, the survey tool provided measurements of general job satisfaction, sleep quality, general health complaints, morningness/eveningness, cognitive and somatic anxiety, depression, and circadian types. The survey questionnaire included an EMS-specific scaler of stress.^ A conceptual model of Shiftwork Tolerance was presented to identify the key factors examined in the study. An extensive list of 265 variables was reduced to 36 key variables that related to: (1) shift schedule and demographic/lifestyle factors, (2) individual differences related to traits and characteristics, and (3) tolerance/intolerance effects. Using the general job satisfaction scaler as the key measurement of shift tolerance/intolerance, it was shown that a significant relationship existed between this dependent variable and stress, number of years working a 24-hour shift, sleep quality, languidness/vigorousness. The usual amount of sleep received during the shift, general health complaints and flexibility/rigidity (R$\sp2$ =.5073).^ The sample consisted of a majority of morningness-types or extreme-morningness types, few evening-types and no extreme-evening types, duplicating the findings of Motohashi's previous study of ambulance workers. The level of activity by station was not significant on any of the dependent variables examined. However, the shift worked had a relationship with sleep quality, despite the fact that all shifts work the same hours and participate in the same rotation schedule. ^

The location of majority and minority populations with respect to commercial treatment, storage, and disposal facilities in Texas

There is a growing interest in the location of Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSDF) sites in relation to minority communities. A number of studies have been completed, and the results of these studies have been varied. Some of the studies have shown a strong positive correlation between the location of TSDF sites and minority populations, while a few have shown no significance in that relationship. The major difference between these studies has been in the areal unit used.^ This study compared the minority populations of Texas census tracts and ZIP codes containing a TSDF using the associated county as the comparison population. The hypothesis of this study was that there was no difference between using census tracts and ZIP codes to analyze the relationship of minority populations and TSDF's. The census data used was from 1990, and the initial list of TSDF sites was supplied by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission. The TSDF site locations were checked using graphical information systems (GIS) programs, in order to increase the accuracy of the identity of exposed ZIP codes and census tracts. The minority populations of the exposed areal units were compared using proportional differences, crosstables, maps, and logistic regression. The dependent variable used was the exposure status of the areal units under study, including counties, census tracts, and ZIP codes. The independent variables used included minority group proportion and grouping of the proportions, educational status, household income, and home value.^ In all cases, education was significant or near significant at the.05 level. Education rather than minority proportion was therefore the most significant predictor of the exposure status of a census tract or ZIP code. ^

PREDICTIVE VARIABLES FOR WEIGHT CHANGE 2 YEARS FOLLOWING PARTICIPATION IN A WEIGHT LOSS INTERVENTION PROGRAM

A historical prospective study was designed to assess the man weight status of subjects who participated in a behavioral weight reduction program in 1983 and to determine whether there was an association between the dependent variable weight change and any of 31 independent variables after a 2 year follow-up period. Data was obtained by abstracting the subjects records and from a follow-up questionnaire administered 2 years following program participation. Five hundred nine subjects (386 females and 123 males) of 1460 subjects who participated in the program, completed and returned the questionnaire. Results showed that mean weight was significantly different (p < 0.001) between the measurement at baseline and after a 2 year follow-up period. The mean weight loss of the group was 5.8 pounds, 10.7 pounds for males and 4.2 pounds for females after a 2 year follow-up period. A total of 63.9% of the group, 69.9% of males and 61.9% of females were still below their initial weight after the 2 year follow-up period. Sixteen of the 31 variables assessed utilizing bivariate analyses were found to be significantly (p (LESSTHEQ) 0.05) associated with weight change after a 2 year follow-up period. These variables were then entered into a multivariate linear regression model. A total of 37.9% of the variance of the dependent variable, weight change, was accounted for by all 16 variables. Eight of these variables were found to be significantly (p (LESSTHEQ) 0.05) predictive of weight change in the stepwise multivariate process accounting for 37.1% of the variance. These variables included: Two baseline variables (percent over ideal body weight at enrollment and occupation) and six follow-up variables (feeling in control of eating habits, percent of body weight lost during treatment, frequency of weight measurement, physical activity, eating in response to emotions, and number of pounds of weight gain needed to resume a diet). It was concluded that a greater amount of emphasis should be placed on the six follow-up variables by clinicians involved in the treatment of obesity, and by the subjects themselves to enhance their chances of success at long-term weight loss. ^

Physical fitness of industrial firefighters

Firefighting is widely known to be one of the most physically demanding civilian occupations. A subset of this is Industrial Firefighting, which places similarly high physical demands on Industrial Firefighters. Although there are some studies on community firefighters, literature is scant on Industrial Firefighters and their physical fitness. ^ A cross-sectional study of Industrial Firefighters in Petrochemical companies in Texas was carried out in 1996–98 to assess their physical fitness and to develop a set of physical agility criteria useful in their selection and ongoing fitness for duty evaluations. ^ A physical agility criteria and a fitness scorecard was developed based on seven parameters (resting heart rate, diastolic blood pressure, aerobic capacity, muscle strength, muscle endurance, trunk flexibility and total body fat) of musculoskeletal and cardiorespiratory fitness. Each indicator received a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 20 points, based on individual performance. Therefore a minimum and maximum achievable score for the entire battery of tests was 0 and 140 respectively. Of the 111 study subjects, 5 (4.5%) were far above average, 31 (28%) above average, 46 (41.5 %) average, 29 (26%) below average and 0 (0%) far below average as deemed by the physical fitness scorecard. The mean score was 77 (±23) with a minimum and maximum score of 35 and 135 respectively. ^ Following univariate analysis an exploratory factor analysis to group variables and to assess the overall role of constituent variables in total fitness of a firefighter was developed. This was followed by a stepwise linear regression analysis using aerobic capacity as a dependent variable. ^ Finally, a graded implementation strategy was devised, such that all existing Industrial Firefighters would have an opportunity to improve or maintain their physical fitness at or above average level as deemed by the fitness scorecard. ^

Evaluating the impact of vertical integration on health system peformance

Vertical integration is grounded in economic theory as a corporate strategy for reducing cost and enhancing efficiency. There were three purposes for this dissertation. The first was to describe and understand vertical integration theory. The review of the economic theory established vertical integration as a corporate cost reduction strategy in response to environmental, structural and performance dimensions of the market. The second purpose was to examine vertical integration in the context of the health care industry, which has greater complexity, higher instability, and more unstable demand than other industries, although many of the same dimensions of the market supported a vertical integration strategy. Evidence on the performance of health systems after integration revealed mixed results. Because the market continues to be turbulent, hybrid non-owned integration in the form of alliances have increased to over 40% of urban hospitals. The third purpose of the study was to examine the application of vertical integration in health care and evaluate the effects. The case studied was an alliance formed between a community hospital and a tertiary medical center to facilitate vertical integration of oncology services while maintaining effectiveness and preserving access. The economic benefits for 1934 patients were evaluated in the delivery system before and after integration with a more detailed economic analysis of breast, lung, colon/rectal, and non-malignant cases. A regression analysis confirmed the relationship between the independent variables of age, sex, location of services, race, stage of disease, and diagnosis, and the dependent variable, cost. The results of the basic regression model, as well as the regression with first-order interaction terms, were statistically significant. The study shows that vertical integration at an intermediate health care system level has economic benefits. If the pre-integration oncology group had been treated in the post-integration model, the expected cost savings from integration would be 31.5%. Quality indicators used were access to health care services and research treatment protocols, and access was preserved in the integrated model. Using survival as a direct quality outcome measure, the survival of lung cancer patients was statistically the same before and after integration. ^

Mexican American parent atttitudes towards research participation

The objective of this cross sectional pilot study was to understand the cultural and social influences associated with the participation and retention of Mexican American parents in research studies. Mexican American parent's participation is limited due to cultural barriers that researchers may not recognize. Successful recruitment and retention of participants is a critical element for prevention research, particularly for groups that are underrepresented and carry a high burden of disease (Dunika, Garza, Roosa, & Stoerzinger, 1997). ^ The goal of this pilot study was to increase the understanding of research participation, recruitment and retention strategies among Mexican American adults using an instrument based on the Health Belief Model. This instrument was used to assess the cultural beliefs of Mexican American adults toward research participation. The dependent variable (research scenarios indexed by invasiveness) for each participant was compared to the independent variable (HBM scores) using chi-square analysis to see how the Health Belief Model constructs of perceived threat, perceived barriers, cues to action and perceived benefits are associated with how willing the participants are to participate in different risk levels of research. Descriptive statistics were used to assess the items on the instrument regarding acculturation, demographics, and sample size. ^ This study expands on current knowledge of research participation and retention strategies and methods involving the Mexican American parents. Using data from this study, researchers can observe relevant patterns from the participant's responses.^

Determinants of malnutrition in two states in Sudan

Nearly one in three children in the developing world is malnourished. Poor nutrition contributes to one out of two deaths (53%) associated with infectious diseases among children aged under five in developing countries. Using data from the 2005 World Food Program’s (WFP) Livelihood Vulnerability and Nutritional Assessment of Rural Kassala and Red Sea State this study examines the impact of female headed households and maternal education on malnutrition in children 6-59 months old. The dependent variable investigated in this study is moderate to severe wasting or less than -2 weight for height Z-score, also known as global acute malnutrition (GAM). ^ The study population consisted of 450 households in Kassala State and Red Sea State, Sudan. A total of 900 children 6-59 months of age were part of the households sampled from these states and one child per household (773 children) was randomly chosen for the analysis along with the child’s mother. Results of the study found that 18 percent of children between 6-59 months of age had GAM/wasting. Maternal education, main source of water, and income were strongly related to wasting. Gender of head of household was not found to have a significant relationship with GAM/wasting. Mothers with at least primary education were much less likely to have malnourished children, even after controlling for income and environmental conditions. Children in households with unsafe sources of water were 2.6 more likely to have wasting than those with piped in/tube wells as their main source of water. For every increase of 100 dinar in a household, the children in the household are approximately two-thirds times (.662) less likely to be wasted. ^ The results of this study support the alternate hypothesis that there is an association between maternal education on wasting of children 6-59 months old. The results do not, however, support the alternate hypothesis that there is an association between gender of head of household on wasting of children 6-59 months old. Better understanding of the association of wasting and other measures of malnutrition with maternal education levels can program managers and other health officials to target important nutritional and non-nutritional interventions. ^

African American female adolescents and antecedents of pregnancy

Although the pregnancy rate of teenage girls in the United States has decreased in recent years, African American female adolescents still have one of the highest teen pregnancy rates among girls in the United States. Previous studies report inconsistent relationships between adolescent pregnancy and self-esteem and parental communication, caring, and closeness. The purpose of this study was to assess relationships between pregnancy among African American female adolescents (7th to 12th grades) and self-esteem, communication levels and type of relationships with their parents. This study used data collected from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Logistic regression analysis was used to determine if the independent variables of self-esteem, levels of parental caring and closeness and levels of communication with parents predicted the dependent variable of pregnancy. After controlling for age and levels of parental education, self-esteem was the only statistically significant variable that was associated with pregnancy. The findings of this study indicate that levels of self-esteem should be further investigated and that self-esteem may be an important factor when designing interventions to prevent adolescent pregnancy, particularly for African American females. ^

Patient perceptions of balance in prostate cancer screening decision aids

Purpose. Recent reports reveals that studies of decision aids reported concern about the balance and accuracy of information included in decision aids. This study explores measures of balance in patient decision aids through a review of prostate cancer screening decision aid studies and analysis of patients’ rating of a patient decision aid for prostate cancer screening. ^ Methods. A data-abstraction form was used to collect the key characteristics, pertaining to balance, of studies included in the review. The key characteristics included (1) sample characteristics (age, race, family history of prostate cancer, and education), (2) description of the decision aid and how it was implemented, and (3) if a measure of balance was used for process evaluation and the rating. A summary table was used to report the findings. Deidentified data was received from a decision aid control trial and logistic regression analysis was used to test the association between the dependent variable (balance) and the independent variables (age, family history, race, screening preference at baseline, education, health insurance status). ^ Conclusion. Three sociodemographic variables remained significant in the final regression model: African American race, education and PSA history. Further research is needed to determine if these variables can predict a man’s perception of balance in prostate cancer screening decision aids. If a patient’s perceptions of balance can be predicted based on specific characteristics, patient report may not be the most objective method of evaluating the acceptability of a decision.^

Evaluation of therapist and client language in Motivational Interviewing (MI) sessions: A secondary analysis of data from the Southern Methodist Alcohol Research Trial (SMART) study

In the United States, “binge” drinking among college students is an emerging public health concern due to the significant physical and psychological effects on young adults. The focus is on identifying interventions that can help decrease high-risk drinking behavior among this group of drinkers. One such intervention is Motivational interviewing (MI), a client-centered therapy that aims at resolving client ambivalence by developing discrepancy and engaging the client in change talk. Of late, there is a growing interest in determining the active ingredients that influence the alliance between the therapist and the client. This study is a secondary analysis of the data obtained from the Southern Methodist Alcohol Research Trial (SMART) project, a dismantling trial of MI and feedback among heavy drinking college students. The present project examines the relationship between therapist and client language in MI sessions on a sample of “binge” drinking college students. Of the 126 SMART tapes, 30 tapes (‘MI with feedback’ group = 15, ‘MI only’ group = 15) were randomly selected for this study. MISC 2.1, a mutually exclusive and exhaustive coding system, was used to code the audio/videotaped MI sessions. Therapist and client language were analyzed for communication characteristics. Overall, therapists adopted a MI consistent style and clients were found to engage in change talk. Counselor acceptance, empathy, spirit, and complex reflections were all significantly related to client change talk (p-values ranged from 0.001 to 0.047). Additionally, therapist ‘advice without permission’ and MI Inconsistent therapist behaviors were strongly correlated with client sustain talk (p-values ranged from 0.006 to 0.048). Simple linear regression models showed a significant correlation between MI consistent (MICO) therapist language (independent variable) and change talk (dependent variable) and MI inconsistent (MIIN) therapist language (independent variable) and sustain talk (dependent variable). The study has several limitations such as small sample size, self-selection bias, poor inter-rater reliability for the global scales and the lack of a temporal measure of therapist and client language. Future studies might consider a larger sample size to obtain more statistical power. In addition the correlation between therapist language, client language and drinking outcome needs to be explored.^

Follow-up care after a health fair screening in three Houston neighborhoods in 2008

Background. Each year thousands of people participate in mass health screenings for diabetes and hypertension, but little is known about whether or not those who receive higher than normal screening results obtain the recommended follow-up medical care, or what barriers they perceive to doing so. ^ Methods. Study participants were recruited from attendees at three health fairs in low-income neighborhoods in Houston, Texas Potential participants had higher than normal blood pressure (> 90/140 mgHg) or blood glucose readings (100 mm/dL fasting or 140 mm/dL random). Study participants were called at one, two, and three months and asked if they had obtained follow-up medical care; those who had not yet obtained follow-up care were asked to identify barriers. Using a modified Aday-Andersen model of health service access, the independent variables were individual and community characteristics and self-perceived need. The dependent variable was obtaining follow-up care, with barriers to care a secondary outcome. ^ Results. Eighty-two study participants completed the initial questionnaire and 59 participants completed the study protocol. Forty-eight participants (59% under an intent to treat analysis, 81% of those completing the study protocol) obtained follow-up care. Those who completed the initial questionnaire and who reported a regular source of care were significantly more likely to obtain follow-up care. For those who completed the study protocol the relationship between having a regular source of care and obtaining follow-up care approached but did not reach significance. For those who completed the initial questionnaire, self-described health status, when examined as a binary variable (good, very good, excellent, or poor, fair, not sure) was associated with obtaining follow-up care for those who rated their health as poor, fair, or not sure. While the group who completed the study protocol did not reach statistical significance, the same relationship between self-described health status of poor, fair, or not sure and obtaining follow-up care was present. The participants who completed the study protocol and described their blood pressure as OK or a little high were statistically more likely to get follow-up care than those who described it as high or very high. All those on oral medications for hypertension (12/12) and diabetes (4/4) who were told to obtain follow-up care did so; however, the small sample size allows this correlation to be of statistical significance only for those treating hypertension. ^ The variables significantly associated with obtaining follow-up care were having a regular source of care, self-described health status of poor, fair, or not sure, self-described blood pressure of OK or a little high, and taking medication for blood pressure. ^ At the follow-up telephone calls, 34 participants identified barriers to care; cost was a significant barrier reported by 16 participants, and 10 reported that they didn’t have time because they were working long hours after Hurricane Ike. ^ The study included the offer of access assistance: information about nearby safety-net providers, a visit to or information from the Health Information Center at their Neighborhood Center location, or information from Project Safety Net (a searchable web site for safety net providers). Access assistance was offered at the health fairs and then again at follow-up telephone calls to those who had not yet obtained follow-up care. Of the 48 participants who reported obtaining follow-up care, 26 said they had made use of the access assistance to do so. The use of access assistance was associated with being Hispanic, not having health insurance or a regular source of care, and speaking Spanish. It was also associated with being worried about blood glucose. ^ Conclusion. Access assistance, as a community enabling characteristic, may be useful in aiding low-income people in obtaining medical care. ^

An empirical model to estimate the demand for primary care in urban settings

Objective. To measure the demand for primary care and its associated factors by building and estimating a demand model of primary care in urban settings.^ Data source. Secondary data from 2005 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS 2005), a population-based random-digit dial telephone survey, conducted by the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research in collaboration with the California Department of Health Services, and the Public Health Institute between July 2005 and April 2006.^ Study design. A literature review was done to specify the demand model by identifying relevant predictors and indicators. CHIS 2005 data was utilized for demand estimation.^ Analytical methods. The probit regression was used to estimate the use/non-use equation and the negative binomial regression was applied to the utilization equation with the non-negative integer dependent variable.^ Results. The model included two equations in which the use/non-use equation explained the probability of making a doctor visit in the past twelve months, and the utilization equation estimated the demand for primary conditional on at least one visit. Among independent variables, wage rate and income did not affect the primary care demand whereas age had a negative effect on demand. People with college and graduate educational level were associated with 1.03 (p < 0.05) and 1.58 (p < 0.01) more visits, respectively, compared to those with no formal education. Insurance was significantly and positively related to the demand for primary care (p < 0.01). Need for care variables exhibited positive effects on demand (p < 0.01). Existence of chronic disease was associated with 0.63 more visits, disability status was associated with 1.05 more visits, and people with poor health status had 4.24 more visits than those with excellent health status. ^ Conclusions. The average probability of visiting doctors in the past twelve months was 85% and the average number of visits was 3.45. The study emphasized the importance of need variables in explaining healthcare utilization, as well as the impact of insurance, employment and education on demand. The two-equation model of decision-making, and the probit and negative binomial regression methods, was a useful approach to demand estimation for primary care in urban settings.^

Characterization of diabetes risk factors of elementary school children in low income areas of San Antonio, Texas

The number of children developing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasing globally, especially in Western countries. Previous studies have indicated that low socioeconomic status (SES) is a contributing factor to diabetes. This study of children examined the relationship of socioeconomic status and two physiological measures that are risk factors for diabetes: the level of fasting capillary glucose (FCG) and hyperglycemia, in which there is an elevated amount of glucose in the blood. This study utilized data from the study entitled Bienester: A School-Based Diabetes Mellitus Prevention Program. The sample was 1,426 fourth grade students from 27 San Antonio Independent School District elementary schools. The dependent variable was FCG and the independent variable was the median family income associated with the student's zip code based on Census information. Other variables included body mass index, gender, and ethnicity. The statistical results showed no relationship between FCG, continuously defined, and income. In addition, there was no relationship between hyperglycemia and income. Furthermore, there was no relationship of FCG with BMI, gender, or ethnicity. Income measured at the zip code level is likely too aggregate and distal an influence to demonstrate an impact on FCG. Research should continue to examine risk factors associated with the onset of T2DM.^

A study to determine the association between medical decision-making and the performance of an institutional ethics committee

This study developed proxy measures to test the independent effects of medical specialty, institutional ethics committee (IEC) and the interaction between the two, upon a proxy for the dependent variable of the medical decision to withhold/withdraw care for the dying--the resuscitation index (R-index). Five clinical vignettes were constructed and validated to convey the realism and contextual factors implicit in the decision to withhold/withdraw care. A scale was developed to determine the range of contact by an IEC in terms of physician knowledge and use of IEC policy.^ This study was composed of a sample of 215 physicians in a teaching hospital in the Southwest where proxy measures were tested for two competing influences, medical specialty and IEC, which alternately oppose and support the decision to withhold/withdraw care for the dying. A sub-sample of surgeons supported the hypothesis that an IEC is influential in opposing the medical training imperative to prolong life.^ Those surgeons with a low IEC score were 326 percent more likely to continue care than were surgeons with a high IEC score when compared to all other specialties. IEC alone was also found to significantly predict the decision to withhold/withdraw care. Interaction of IEC with the specialty of surgery was found to be the best predictor for a decision to withhold/withdraw care for the dying. ^