Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Mexican-American children from parental risk factors, and social and demographic characteristics in the HHANES

Objectives. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) including CVD secondary to diabetes type II, a significant health problem among Mexican American populations, originates in early childhood. This study seeks to determine risk factors available to the health practitioner that can identify the child at potential risk of developing CVD, thereby enabling early intervention. ^ Design. This is a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data of matched Mexican American parents and children selected from the HHANES, 1982–1984. ^ Methods. Parents at high risk for CVD were identified based on medical history, and clinical and physical findings. Factor analysis was performed on children's skinfold thicknesses, height, weight, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures, in order to produce a limited number of uncorrelated child CVD risk factors. Multiple regression analyses were then performed to determine other CVD markers associated with these Factors, independently for mothers and fathers. ^ Results. Factor analysis of children's measurements revealed three uncorrelated latent variables summarizing the children's CVD risk: Factor1: ‘Fatness’, Factor2: ‘Size and Maturity’, and Factor3: ‘Blood Pressure’, together accounting for the bulk of variation in children's measurements (86–89%). Univariate analyses showed that children from high CVD risk families did not differ from children of low risk families in occurrence of high blood pressure, overweight, biological maturity, acculturation score, or social and economic indicators. However, multiple regression using the factor scores (from factor analysis) as dependent variables, revealed that higher CVD risk in parents, was significantly associated with increased fatness and increased blood pressure in the children. Father's CVD risk status was associated with higher levels of body fat in his children and higher levels of blood pressure in sons. Mother's CVD risk status was associated with higher blood pressure levels in children, and occurrence of obesity in the mother associated with higher fatness levels in her children. ^ Conclusion. Occurrence of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in parents of Mexican American children, may be used to identify children at potentially higher risk for developing CV disease in the future. Obesity in mothers appears to be an important marker for the development of higher levels of body fatness in children. ^

Critical indicators associated with negative performance in a selectively manned unit

Introduction. Selectively manned units have a long, international history, both military and civilian. Some examples include SWAT teams, firefighters, the FBI, the DEA, the CIA, and military Special Operations. These special duty operators are individuals who perform a highly skilled and dangerous job in a unique environment. A significant amount of money is spent by the Department of Defense (DoD) and other federal agencies to recruit, select, train, equip and support these operators. When a critical incident or significant life event occurs, that jeopardizes an operator's performance; there can be heavy losses in terms of training, time, money, and potentially, lives. In order to limit the number of critical incidents, selection processes have been developed over time to “select out” those individuals most likely to perform below desired performance standards under pressure or stress and to "select in" those with the "right stuff". This study is part of a larger program evaluation to assess markers that identify whether a person will fail under the stresses in a selectively manned unit. The primary question of the study is whether there are indicators in the selection process that signify potential negative performance at a later date. ^ Methods. The population being studied included applicants to a selectively manned DoD organization between 1993 and 2001 as part of a unit assessment and selection process (A&S). Approximately 1900 A&S records were included in the analysis. Over this nine year period, seventy-two individuals were determined to have had a critical incident. A critical incident can come in the form of problems with the law, personal, behavioral or family problems, integrity issues, and skills deficit. Of the seventy-two individuals, fifty-four of these had full assessment data and subsequent supervisor performance ratings which assessed how an individual performed while on the job. This group was compared across a variety of variables including demographics and psychometric testing with a group of 178 individuals who did not have a critical incident and had been determined to be good performers with positive ratings by their supervisors.^ Results. In approximately 2004, an online pre-screen survey was developed in the hopes of preselecting out those individuals with items that would potentially make them ineligible for selection to this organization. This survey has aided the organization to increase its selection rates and save resources in the process. (Patterson, Howard Smith, & Fisher, Unit Assessment and Selection Project, 2008) When the same prescreen was used on the critical incident individuals, it was found that over 60% of the individuals would have been flagged as unacceptable. This would have saved the organization valuable resources and heartache.^ There were some subtle demographic differences between the two groups (i.e. those with critical incidents were almost twice as likely to be divorced compared with the positive performers). Upon comparison of Psychometric testing several items were noted to be different. The two groups were similar when their IQ levels were compared using the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB). When looking at the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), there appeared to be a difference on the MMPI Social Introversion; the Critical Incidence group scored somewhat higher. When analysis was done, the number of MMPI Critical Items between the two groups was similar as well. When scores on the NEO Personality Inventory (NEO) were compared, the critical incident individuals tended to score higher on Openness and on its subscales (Ideas, Actions, and Feelings). There was a positive correlation between Total Neuroticism T Score and number of MMPI critical items.^ Conclusions. This study shows that the current pre-screening process is working and would have saved the organization significant resources. ^ If one was to develop a profile of a candidate who potentially could suffer a critical incident and subsequently jeopardize the unit, mission and the safety of the public they would look like the following: either divorced or never married, score high on the MMPI in Social Introversion, score low on MMPI with an "excessive" amount of MMPI critical items; and finally scores high on the NEO Openness and subscales Ideas, Feelings, and Actions.^ Based on the results gleaned from the analysis in this study there seems to be several factors, within psychometric testing, that when taken together, will aid the evaluators in selecting only the highest quality operators in order to save resources and to help protect the public from unfortunate critical incidents which may adversely affect our health and safety.^

A categorical data analysis approach to estimation of demographic characteristics for Texas county populations

The need for timely population data for health planning and Indicators of need has Increased the demand for population estimates. The data required to produce estimates is difficult to obtain and the process is time consuming. Estimation methods that require less effort and fewer data are needed. The structure preserving estimator (SPREE) is a promising technique not previously used to estimate county population characteristics. This study first uses traditional regression estimation techniques to produce estimates of county population totals. Then the structure preserving estimator, using the results produced in the first phase as constraints, is evaluated.^ Regression methods are among the most frequently used demographic methods for estimating populations. These methods use symptomatic indicators to predict population change. This research evaluates three regression methods to determine which will produce the best estimates based on the 1970 to 1980 indicators of population change. Strategies for stratifying data to improve the ability of the methods to predict change were tested. Difference-correlation using PMSA strata produced the equation which fit the data the best. Regression diagnostics were used to evaluate the residuals.^ The second phase of this study is to evaluate use of the structure preserving estimator in making estimates of population characteristics. The SPREE estimation approach uses existing data (the association structure) to establish the relationship between the variable of interest and the associated variable(s) at the county level. Marginals at the state level (the allocation structure) supply the current relationship between the variables. The full allocation structure model uses current estimates of county population totals to limit the magnitude of county estimates. The limited full allocation structure model has no constraints on county size. The 1970 county census age - gender population provides the association structure, the allocation structure is the 1980 state age - gender distribution.^ The full allocation model produces good estimates of the 1980 county age - gender populations. An unanticipated finding of this research is that the limited full allocation model produces estimates of county population totals that are superior to those produced by the regression methods. The full allocation model is used to produce estimates of 1986 county population characteristics. ^

THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF A COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ON DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES IN HIMALAYAN INDIAN VILLAGES

A community development program operating in the mountains of North India was studied to assess its potential effects on mortality, fertility and migration patterns in the community which it served. The development program operated in Jaunpur Block, Tehri-Garhwal District, Uttar Pradesh State. Two comparable villages in the district were studied. The development program had been working in one for two years, and the other was completely untouched by the program.^ Since not enough time had elapsed since the beginning of the development program's work for any effects on demographic patterns to be visable in Jaunpur Block, this study looked to attitudes of village residents as indicators of future demographic trends. Existing demographic patterns and their interrelationship with socio-religious customs were examined in the test village. A questionnaire was then administered to ascertain attitudinal differences between the residents of the test village and the control village.^ The primary work of the community development program was to train women as village health workers. The results of the attitudinal comparison of the residents of the two villages showed a marked difference in attitudes relating to the position of women in society. The data showed a higher esteem for women in the test village than in the control village, and it is argued that this difference may be attributable to the work of the development program.^ Predicting future demographic trends in Jaunpur Block on the basis of the observed difference in villagers' attitudes toward the status of women is speculatory. Jaunpur Block appears to be in the demographic stage of pre-transition, maintaining relatively high rates of both mortality and fertility. Based on demographic transition theory the next significant change in demographic patterns in Jaunpur is predicted to be a decline in mortality, and an increase in the status of women is unrelated to this prediction.^ The community development program which was studied terminated unexpectedly during the time of this study. A case study of the program's final months is presented, and speculation on the future course of demographic trends in Jaunpur Block is related to the possible alternatives for future development in the area. ^