Addressing Obesity: Fear of Crime, Perceptions of Disorder and Disaparities in Child and Adolescent Use of Public Parks

Abstract The objectives of this study were: 1) To determine factors which inhibit and facilitate child and adolescent use of outdoor spaces for healthy physical activity by race and ethnicity in four Houston communities and 2) To propose guidelines for encouraging and maintaining child and adolescent outdoor physical activity. Using local health data and Houston Police Department crime statistics, four communities were identified for the study that had the highest concentration of crime and the racial/ ethnic groups of interest. The researchers then identified public parks in the communities. At least two parks were observed in each of the four communities from 2010 to 2011 during spring, summer, fall and winter. The parks were observed for use by children and adolescents and to describe the condition of the park spaces. The communities were Alief (Asian), Sunnyside (Black), Eldridge- West Oaks (White) and Northside- Northline (Hispanic). Observations were made at varying hours of both day and night, weekdays and weekends. Photographs were taken and the condition of the spaces noted in detail. One hundred and twenty persons, 18 years and over, using the spaces or otherwise in these communities were conveniently sampled and interviewed about their health and the extent to which they, or any children or adolescents under their care, used the outdoor spaces of interest. Data were analyzed qualitatively and with basic descriptive statistics. The photographs, journal notes and observation notes of all investigators and key personnel were analyzed. Interview data were also coded to identify patterns and themes in the responses. The findings indicate disparities in the quality and quantity of park equipment and the maintenance of the areas. Where perceptions of disorder were described, there was often visible evidence to support the perceptions. In many cases, residents' perceptions of crime were corroborated by police data. While interview reports did not seem to support the expectation that the condition of the parks was a significant deterrent to their use by children and adolescents, the condition of the parks might be said to limit the extent of that use. Specific reports of disorder that inhibited use included hearing gunfire, seeing drug dependent homeless persons and/or suspected prostitutes in an area.

Forecasting cost based on a stochastic utilization plan and a fixed cost function

The application of Markov processes is very useful to health-care problems. The objective of this study is to provide a structured methodology of forecasting cost based upon combining a stochastic model of utilization (Markov Chain) and deterministic cost function. The perspective of the cost in this study is the reimbursement for the services rendered. The data to be used is the OneCare database of claim records of their enrollees over a two-year period of January 1, 1996–December 31, 1997. The model combines a Markov Chain that describes the utilization pattern and its variability where the use of resources by risk groups (age, gender, and diagnosis) will be considered in the process and a cost function determined from a fixed schedule based on real costs or charges for those in the OneCare claims database. The cost function is a secondary application to the model. Goodness-of-fit will be used checked for the model against the traditional method of cost forecasting. ^

A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

Predicting the Past and Forecasting the Future

A commentary on Santos' article, "Explaining Scholarship Addressing Hispanic Children’s Issues."