A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT AND DRUG-DRUG INTERACTION ANALYSIS: APPLICATION TO IN VITRO STUDIES

The considerable search for synergistic agents in cancer research is motivated by the therapeutic benefits achieved by combining anti-cancer agents. Synergistic agents make it possible to reduce dosage while maintaining or enhancing a desired effect. Other favorable outcomes of synergistic agents include reduction in toxicity and minimizing or delaying drug resistance. Dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis play an important part in the drug discovery process, however analysis are often poorly done. This dissertation is an effort to notably improve dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis. The most commonly used method in published analysis is the Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method (Chou and Talalay, 1984). The Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method leads to inefficiency by ignoring important sources of variation inherent in dose-response data and discarding data points that do not fit the Median-Effect Principle. Previous work has shown that the conventional method yields a high rate of false positives (Boik, Boik, Newman, 2008; Hennessey, Rosner, Bast, Chen, 2010) and, in some cases, low power to detect synergy. There is a great need for improving the current methodology. We developed a Bayesian framework for dose-response modeling and drug-drug interaction analysis. First, we developed a hierarchical meta-regression dose-response model that accounts for various sources of variation and uncertainty and allows one to incorporate knowledge from prior studies into the current analysis, thus offering a more efficient and reliable inference. Second, in the case that parametric dose-response models do not fit the data, we developed a practical and flexible nonparametric regression method for meta-analysis of independently repeated dose-response experiments. Third, and lastly, we developed a method, based on Loewe additivity that allows one to quantitatively assess interaction between two agents combined at a fixed dose ratio. The proposed method makes a comprehensive and honest account of uncertainty within drug interaction assessment. Extensive simulation studies show that the novel methodology improves the screening process of effective/synergistic agents and reduces the incidence of type I error. We consider an ovarian cancer cell line study that investigates the combined effect of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors in human ovarian cancer cell lines. The hypothesis is that the combination of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors will enhance antiproliferative activity in human ovarian cancer cell lines compared to treatment with each inhibitor alone. By applying the proposed Bayesian methodology, in vitro synergy was declared for DNA methylation inhibitor, 5-AZA-2'-deoxycytidine combined with one histone deacetylation inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or trichostatin A in the cell lines HEY and SKOV3. This suggests potential new epigenetic therapies in cell growth inhibition of ovarian cancer cells.

Dose-response characteristics of methylphenidate on locomotor behavior and on sensory evoked potentials recorded from the VTA, NAc, and PFC in freely behaving rats.

BACKGROUND: Methylphenidate (MPD) is a psychostimulant commonly prescribed for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder. The mode of action of the brain circuitry responsible for initiating the animals' behavior in response to psychostimulants is not well understood. There is some evidence that psychostimulants activate the ventral tegmental area (VTA), nucleus accumbens (NAc), and prefrontal cortex (PFC). METHODS: The present study was designed to investigate the acute dose-response of MPD (0.6, 2.5, and 10.0 mg/kg) on locomotor behavior and sensory evoked potentials recorded from the VTA, NAc, and PFC in freely behaving rats previously implanted with permanent electrodes. For locomotor behavior, adult male Wistar-Kyoto (WKY; n = 39) rats were given saline on experimental day 1 and either saline or an acute injection of MPD (0.6, 2.5, or 10.0 mg/kg, i.p.) on experimental day 2. Locomotor activity was recorded for 2-h post injection on both days using an automated, computerized activity monitoring system. Electrophysiological recordings were also performed in the adult male WKY rats (n = 10). Five to seven days after the rats had recovered from the implantation of electrodes, each rat was placed in a sound-insulated, electrophysiological test chamber where its sensory evoked field potentials were recorded before and after saline and 0.6, 2.5, and 10.0 mg/kg MPD injection. Time interval between injections was 90 min. RESULTS: Results showed an increase in locomotion with dose-response characteristics, while a dose-response decrease in amplitude of the components of sensory evoked field responses of the VTA, NAc, and PFC neurons. For example, the P3 component of the sensory evoked field response of the VTA decreased by 19.8% +/- 7.4% from baseline after treatment of 0.6 mg/kg MPD, 37.8% +/- 5.9% after 2.5 mg/kg MPD, and 56.5% +/- 3.9% after 10 mg/kg MPD. Greater attenuation from baseline was observed in the NAc and PFC. Differences in the intensity of MPD-induced attenuation were also found among these brain areas. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that an acute treatment of MPD produces electrophysiologically detectable alterations at the neuronal level, as well as observable, behavioral responses. The present study is the first to investigate the acute dose-response effects of MPD on behavior in terms of locomotor activity and in the brain involving the sensory inputs of VTA, NAc, and PFC neurons in intact, non-anesthetized, freely behaving rats previously implanted with permanent electrodes.

A novel treatment planning methodology for high dose 166Ho-DOTMP therapy in patients with multiple myeloma

Bone marrow ablation, i.e., the complete sterilization of the active bone marrow, followed by bone marrow transplantation (BMT) is a comment treatment of hematological malignancies. The use of targeted bone-seeking radiopharmaceuticals to selectively deliver radiation to the adjacent bone marrow cavities while sparing normal tissues is a promising technique. Current radiopharmaceutical treatment planning methods do not properly compensate for the patient-specific variable distribution of radioactive material within the skeleton. To improve the current method of internal dosimetry, novel methods for measuring the radiopharmaceutical distribution within the skeleton were developed. 99mTc-MDP was proven as an adequate surrogate for measuring 166Ho-DOTMP skeletal uptake and biodistribution, allowing these measures to be obtained faster, safer, and with higher spatial resolution. This translates directly into better measurements of the radiation dose distribution within the bone marrow. The resulting bone marrow dose-volume histograms allow prediction of the patient disease response where conventional organ scale dosimetry failed. They indicate that complete remission is only achieved when greater than 90% of the bone marrow receives at least 30 Gy. ^ Comprehensive treatment planning requires combining target and non-target organ dosimetry. Organs in the urinary tract were of special concern. The kidney dose is primarily dependent upon the mean transit time of 166 Ho-DOTMP through the kidney. Deconvolution analysis of renograms predicted a mean transit time of 2.6 minutes for 166Ho-DOTMP. The radiation dose to the urinary bladder wall is dependent upon numerous factors including patient hydration and void schedule. For beta-emitting isotopes such as 166Ho, reduction of the bladder wall dose is best accomplished through good patient hydration and ensuring a partially full bladder at the time of injection. Encouraging the patient to void frequently, or catheterizing the patient without irrigation, will not significantly reduce the bladder wall dose. ^ The results from this work will produce the most advanced treatment planning methodology for bone marrow ablation therapy using radioisotopes currently available. Treatments can be tailored specifically for each patient, including the addition of concomitant total body irradiation for patients with unfavorable dose distributions, to deliver a desired patient disease response, while minimizing the dose or toxicity to non-target organs. ^

4HPR-X radiation mechanisms of interactions in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells in vitro

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death. However, poor survival using conventional therapies fuel the search for more rational interventions. The objective of this study was to design and implement a 4HPR-radiation interaction model in NSCLC, employing a traditional clinical modality (radiation), a relatively new, therapeutically unexplored agent (4HPR) and rationally combining them based on molecular mechanistic findings pertaining to their interactions. To test the hypothesis that 4HPR sensitizes cells to radiation-induced cell death via G2+M accumulation, we designed a working model consisting of H522 adenocarcinoma cells (p53, K-ras mutated) derived from an NSCLC patient; 4HPR at concentrations up to 10 μM; and X radiation up to 6 Gy generated by a patient-dedicated Phillips RT-250 X ray unit at 250 KV, 15 mA, 1.85 Gy/min. We found that 4HPR produced time- and dose-dependent morphological changes, growth inhibition, and DNA damage-inducing enhancement of reactive oxygen species. A transient G2+M accumulation of cells maximal at 24 h of continuous 4HPR exposure was used for irradiation time scheduling. Our data demonstrated enhanced cell death (both apoptotic and necrotic) in irradiated cells pre-treated with 4HPR versus those with either stressor alone. 4HPR's effect of increased NSCLC cells' radioresponse was confirmed by clonogenic assay. To explore these practical findings from a molecular mechanistic perspective, we further investigated and showed that levels of cyclin B1 and p34cdc2 kinase—both components of the mitosis promoting factor (MPF) regulating the G2/M transition—did not change following 4HPR treatment. Likewise, cdc25C phosphatase was not altered. However, enhanced p34cdc2 phosphorylation on its Thr14Tyr15 residues—indicative of its inactivation and increased expression of MPF negative regulators chk1 and wee1 kinases—were supportive of explaining 4HPR-treated cells' accumulation. Hence, p34cdc2 phosphorylation, chk1, and wee1 warrant further evaluation as potential molecular targets for 4HPR-X radiation combination. In summary, we (1) demonstrated that 4HPR not only induces cell death by itself, but also increases NSCLC cells' subsequent radioresponse, indicative of potential clinical applicability, and (2) for the first time, shed light on deciphering 4HPR-X radiation molecular mechanisms of interaction, including the finding of 4HPR's role as a p34cdc2 inactivator via Thr14Tyr15 phosphorylation. ^

Risk of second primary tumors following treatment of non-small cell lung cancer

Background. The rise in survival rates along with more detailed follow-up using sophisticated imaging studies among non-small lung cancer (NSCLC) patients has led to an increased risk of second primary tumors (SPT) among these cases. Population and hospital based studies of lung cancer patients treated between 1974 and 1996 have found an increasing risk over time for the development of all cancers following treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). During this time the primary modalities for treatment were surgery alone, radiation alone, surgery and post-operative radiation therapy, or combinations of chemotherapy and radiation (sequentially or concurrently). There is limited information in the literature about the impact of treatment modalities on the development of second primary tumors in these patients. ^ Purpose. To investigate the impact of treatment modalities on the risk of second primary tumors in patients receiving treatment with curative intent for non-metastatic (Stage I–III) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ^ Methods. The hospital records of 1,095 NSCLC patients who were diagnosed between 1980–2001 and received treatment with curative intent at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center with surgery alone, radiation alone (with a minimum total radiation dose of at least 45Gy), surgery and post-operative radiation therapy, radiation therapy in combination with chemotherapy or surgery in combination with chemotherapy and radiation were retrospectively reviewed. A second primary malignancy was be defined as any tumor histologically different from the initial cancer, or of another anatomic location, or a tumor of the same location and histology as the initial tumor having an interval between cancers of at least five years. Only primary tumors occurring after treatment for NSCLC will qualified as second primary tumors for this study. ^ Results. The incidence of second primary tumor was 3.3%/year and the rate increased over time following treatment. The type of NSCLC treatment was not found to have a striking effect upon SPT development. Increased rates were observed in the radiation only and chemotherapy plus radiation treatment groups; but, these increases did not exceed expected random variation. Higher radiation treatment dose, patient age and weight loss prior to index NSCLC treatment were associated with higher SPT development. ^

Understanding the Influence of Photon Energy on 6MV Non Reference Dosimetry and CT Dosimetry using TLD and OSLD

Measurement of the absorbed dose from ionizing radiation in medical applications is an essential component to providing safe and reproducible patient care. There are a wide variety of tools available for measuring radiation dose; this work focuses on the characterization of two common, solid-state dosimeters in medical applications: thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD) and optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLD). There were two main objectives to this work. The first objective was to evaluate the energy dependence of TLD and OSLD for non-reference measurement conditions in a radiotherapy environment. The second objective was to fully characterize the OSLD nanoDot in a CT environment, and to provide validated calibration procedures for CT dose measurement using OSLD. Current protocols for dose measurement using TLD and OSLD generally assume a constant photon energy spectrum within a nominal beam energy regardless of measurement location, tissue composition, or changes in beam parameters. Variations in the energy spectrum of therapeutic photon beams may impact the response of TLD and OSLD and could thereby result in an incorrect measure of dose unless these differences are accounted for. In this work, we used a Monte Carlo based model to simulate variations in the photon energy spectra of a Varian 6MV beam; then evaluated the impact of the perturbations in energy spectra on the response of both TLD and OSLD using Burlin Cavity Theory. Energy response correction factors were determined for a range of conditions and compared to measured correction factors with good agreement. When using OSLD for dose measurement in a diagnostic imaging environment, photon energy spectra are often referenced to a therapy-energy or orthovoltage photon beam – commonly 250kVp, Co-60, or even 6MV, where the spectra are substantially different. Appropriate calibration techniques specifically for the OSLD nanoDot in a CT environment have not been presented in the literature; furthermore the dependence of the energy response of the calibration energy has not been emphasized. The results of this work include detailed calibration procedures for CT dosimetry using OSLD, and a full characterization of this dosimetry system in a low-dose, low-energy setting.

Comparison of Tumor Shrinkage and Cumulative Dose Distribution for Lung Cancers

Background: The physical characteristic of protons is that they deliver most of their radiation dose to the target volume and deliver no dose to the normal tissue distal to the tumor. Previously, numerous studies have shown unique advantages of proton therapy over intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) in conforming dose to the tumor and sparing dose to the surrounding normal tissues and the critical structures in many clinical sites. However, proton therapy is known to be more sensitive to treatment uncertainties such as inter- and intra-fractional variations in patient anatomy. To date, no study has clearly demonstrated the effectiveness of proton therapy compared with the conventional IMRT under the consideration of both respiratory motion and tumor shrinkage in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Purpose: This thesis investigated two questions for establishing a clinically relevant comparison of the two different modalities (IMRT and proton therapy). The first question was whether or not there are any differences in tumor shrinkage between patients randomized to IMRT versus passively scattered proton therapy (PSPT). Tumor shrinkage is considered a standard measure of radiation therapy response that has been widely used to gauge a short-term progression of radiation therapy. The second question was whether or not there are any differences between the planned dose and 5D dose under the influence of inter- and intra-fractional variations in the patient anatomy for both modalities. Methods: A total of 45 patients (25 IMRT patients and 20 PSPT patients) were used to quantify the tumor shrinkage in terms of the change of the primary gross tumor volume (GTVp). All patients were randomized to receive either IMRT or PSPT for NSCLC. Treatment planning goals were identical for both groups. All patients received 5 to 8 weekly repeated 4-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) scans during the course of radiation treatments. The original GTVp contours were propagated to T50 of weekly 4DCT images using deformable image registration and their absolute volumes were measured. Statistical analysis was performed to compare the distribution of tumor shrinkage between the two population groups. In order to investigate the difference between the planned dose and the 5D dose with consideration of both breathing motion and anatomical change, we re-calculated new dose distributions at every phase of the breathing cycle for all available weekly 4DCT data sets which resulted 50 to 80 individual dose calculations for each of the 7 patients presented in this thesis. The newly calculated dose distributions were then deformed and accumulated to T50 of the planning 4DCT for comparison with the planned dose distribution. Results: At the end of the treatment, both IMRT and PSPT groups showed mean tumor volume reductions of 23.6% ( 19.2%) and 20.9% ( 17.0 %) respectively. Moreover, the mean difference in tumor shrinkage between two groups is 3% along with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, [-8%, 14%]. The rate of tumor shrinkage was highly correlated with the initial tumor volume size. For the planning dose and 5D dose comparison study, all 7 patients showed a mean difference of 1 % in terms of target coverage for both IMRT and PSPT treatment plans. Conclusions: The results of the tumor shrinkage investigation showed no statistically significant difference in tumor shrinkage between the IMRT and PSPT patients, and the tumor shrinkage between the two modalities is similar based on the 95% confidence interval. From the pilot study of comparing the planned dose with the 5D dose, we found the difference to be only 1%. Overall impression of the two modalities in terms of treatment response as measured by the tumor shrinkage and 5D dose under the influence of anatomical change that were designed under the same protocol (i.e. randomized trial) showed similar result.

Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^