Selection bias and the cross-validation of regression models for prediction

Strategies are compared for the development of a linear regression model with stochastic (multivariate normal) regressor variables and the subsequent assessment of its predictive ability. Bias and mean squared error of four estimators of predictive performance are evaluated in simulated samples of 32 population correlation matrices. Models including all of the available predictors are compared with those obtained using selected subsets. The subset selection procedures investigated include two stopping rules, C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$, each combined with an 'all possible subsets' or 'forward selection' of variables. The estimators of performance utilized include parametric (MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$) and non-parametric (PRESS) assessments in the entire sample, and two data splitting estimates restricted to a random or balanced (Snee's DUPLEX) 'validation' half sample. The simulations were performed as a designed experiment, with population correlation matrices representing a broad range of data structures.^ The techniques examined for subset selection do not generally result in improved predictions relative to the full model. Approaches using 'forward selection' result in slightly smaller prediction errors and less biased estimators of predictive accuracy than 'all possible subsets' approaches but no differences are detected between the performances of C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$. In every case, prediction errors of models obtained by subset selection in either of the half splits exceed those obtained using all predictors and the entire sample.^ Only the random split estimator is conditionally (on $\\beta$) unbiased, however MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ is unbiased on average and PRESS is nearly so in unselected (fixed form) models. When subset selection techniques are used, MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ and PRESS always underestimate prediction errors, by as much as 27 percent (on average) in small samples. Despite their bias, the mean squared errors (MSE) of these estimators are at least 30 percent less than that of the unbiased random split estimator. The DUPLEX split estimator suffers from large MSE as well as bias, and seems of little value within the context of stochastic regressor variables.^ To maximize predictive accuracy while retaining a reliable estimate of that accuracy, it is recommended that the entire sample be used for model development, and a leave-one-out statistic (e.g. PRESS) be used for assessment. ^

Symmetric inverse consistent nonlinear registration driven by mutual information.

A nonlinear viscoelastic image registration algorithm based on the demons paradigm and incorporating inverse consistent constraint (ICC) is implemented. An inverse consistent and symmetric cost function using mutual information (MI) as a similarity measure is employed. The cost function also includes regularization of transformation and inverse consistent error (ICE). The uncertainties in balancing various terms in the cost function are avoided by alternatively minimizing the similarity measure, the regularization of the transformation, and the ICE terms. The diffeomorphism of registration for preventing folding and/or tearing in the deformation is achieved by the composition scheme. The quality of image registration is first demonstrated by constructing brain atlas from 20 adult brains (age range 30-60). It is shown that with this registration technique: (1) the Jacobian determinant is positive for all voxels and (2) the average ICE is around 0.004 voxels with a maximum value below 0.1 voxels. Further, the deformation-based segmentation on Internet Brain Segmentation Repository, a publicly available dataset, has yielded high Dice similarity index (DSI) of 94.7% for the cerebellum and 74.7% for the hippocampus, attesting to the quality of our registration method.

Identification and characterization of genes encoding phospholipid biosynthetic enzymes of {\it Saccharomyces cerevisiae\/}

Phospholipids are the major component of cellular membranes. In addition to its structural role, phospholipids play an active and diverse role in cellular processes. The goal of this study is to identify the genes involved in phospholipid biosynthesis in a model eukaryotic system, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We have focused on the biosynthetic steps localized in the inner mitochondrial membrane; hence, the identification of the genes encoding phosphatidylserine decarboxylase (PSD1), cardiolipin synthase (CLS1), and phosphatidylglycerophosphate synthase (PGS1).^ The PSD1 gene encoding a phosphatidylserine decarboxylase was cloned by complementation of a conditional lethal mutation in the homologous gene in Escherichia coli strain EH150. Overexpression of the PSD1 gene in wild type yeast resulted in 20-fold amplification of phosphatidylserine decarboxylase activity. Disruption of the PSD1 gene resulted in 20-fold reduction of decarboxylase activity, but the PSD1 null mutant exhibited essentially normal phenotype. These results suggest that yeast has a second phosphatidylserine decarboxylation activity.^ Cardiolipin is the major anionic phospholipid of the inner mitochondrial membrane. It is thought to be an essential component of many biochemical functions. In eukaryotic cells, cardiolipin synthase catalyzes the final step in the synthesis of cardiolipin from phosphatidylglycerol and CDP-diacylglycerol. We have cloned the gene CLS1. Overexpression of the CLS1 gene product resulted in significantly elevated cardiolipin synthase activity, and disruption of the CLS1 gene, confirmed by PCR and Southern blot analysis, resulted in a null mutant that was viable and showed no petite phenotype. However, phospholipid analysis showed undetectable cardiolipin level and an accumulation of phosphatidylglycerol. These results support the conclusion that CLS1 encodes the cardiolipin synthase of yeast and that normal levels of cardiolipin are not absolutely essential for survival of the cell.^ Phosphatidylglycerophosphate (PGP) synthase catalyzes the synthesis of PGP from CDP-diacylglycerol and glycerol-3-phosphate and functions as the committal and rate limiting step in the biosynthesis of cardiolipin. We have identified the PGS1 gene as encoding the PGP synthase. Overexpression of the PGS1 gene product resulted in over 15-fold increase in in vitro PGP synthase activity. Disruption of the PGS1 gene in a haploid strain of yeast, confirmed by Southern blot analysis, resulted in a null mutant strain that was viable but had significantly altered phenotypes, i.e. inability to grow on glycerol and at $37\sp\circ$C. These cells showed over a 10-fold decrease in PGP synthase activity and a decrease in both phosphatidylglycerol and cardiolipin levels. These results support the conclusion that PGS1 encodes the PGP synthase of yeast and that neither phosphatidylglycerol nor cardiolipin are absolutely essential for survival of the cell. ^

The Skip To Breakfast project: Development, implementation, and feasibility evaluation of an intervention to increase healthful breakfast consumption among fifth grade students and their families

Children and adults frequently skip breakfast and rates are currently increasing. In addition, the food choices made for breakfast are not always healthy ones. Breakfast skipping, in conjunction with unhealthy breakfast choices, leads to impaired cognitive functioning, poor nutrient intake, and overweight. In response to these public health issues, Skip To Breakfast, a behaviorally based school and family program, was created to increase consistent and healthful breakfast consumption among ethnically diverse fifth grade students and their families, using Intervention Mapping™. Four classroom lessons and four parent newsletters were used to deliver the intervention. For this project, a healthy, "3 Star Breakfast" was promoted, and included a serving each of dairy product, whole grain, and fruit, each with an emphasis on being low in fat and sugar. The goal of this project was to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention. A pilot-test of the intervention was conducted in one classroom, in a school in Houston, during the Fall 2007 semester. A qualitative evaluation of the intervention was conducted, which included focus groups with students, phone interviews of parents, process evaluation data from the classroom teacher, and direct observation. Sixteen students and six parents participated in the study. Data were recorded and themes were identified. Initial results showed there is a need for such programs. Based on the initial feedback, edits were made to the intervention and program. Results showed high acceptability among the teacher, students, and parents. It became apparent that students were not reliably getting the parent newsletters to their parents to read, so a change to the protocol was made, in which students will receive incentives for having parents read newsletters and return signed forms, to increase parent participation. Other changes included small modifications to the curriculum, such as, clarifying instructions, changing in-class assignments to homework assignments, and including background reading materials for the teacher. The main trial is planned to be carried out in Spring 2008, in two elementary schools, utilizing four, fifth grade classes from each, with one school acting as the control and one as the intervention school. Results from this study can be used as an adjunct to the Coordinated Approach To Child Health (CATCH) program. ^

A qualitative assessment of multi-level nutrition strategies for reducing racial and ethnic disparities in diabetes

The purpose of this study is to examine the stages of program realization of the interventions that the Bronx Health REACH program initiated at various levels to improve nutrition as a means for reducing racial and ethnic disparities in diabetes. This study was based on secondary analyses of qualitative data collected through the Bronx Health REACH Nutrition Project, a project conducted under the auspices of the Institute on Urban Family Health, with support from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Local human subjects' review and approval through the Institute on Urban Family Health was required and obtained in order to conduct the Bronx Health REACH Nutrition Project. ^ The study drew from two theoretical models—Glanz and colleagues' nutrition environments model and Shediac-Rizkallah and Bone's sustainability model. The specific study objectives were two-fold: (1) to categorize each nutrition activity to a specific dimension (i.e. consumer, organizational or community nutrition environment); and (2) to evaluate the stage at which the program has been realized (i.e. development, implementation or sustainability). ^ A case study approach was applied and a constant comparative method was used to analyze the data. Triangulation of data based was also conducted. Qualitative data from this study revealed the following principal findings: (1) communities of color are disproportionately experiencing numerous individual and environmental factors contributing to the disparities in diabetes; (2) multi-level strategies that targeted the individual, organizational and community nutrition environments can appropriately address these contributing factors; (3) the nutrition strategies greatly varied in their ability to appropriately meet criteria for the three program stages; and (4) those nutrition strategies most likely to succeed (a) conveyed consistent and culturally relevant messages, (b) had continued involvement from program staff and partners, (c) were able to adapt over time or setting, (d) had a program champion and a training component, (e) were integrated into partnering organizations, and (f) were perceived to be successful by program staff and partners in their efforts to create individual, organizational and community/policy change. As a result of the criteria-based assessment and qualitative findings, an ecological framework elaborating on Glanz and colleagues model was developed. The qualitative findings and the resulting ecological framework developed from this study will help public health professionals and community leaders to develop and implement sustainable multi-level nutrition strategies for addressing racial and ethnic disparities in diabetes. ^

The critical role and regulation of transcription factor FoxM1 in gastric cancer development and progression

The mammalian Forkhead Box (Fox) transcription factor (FoxM1) is implicated in tumorgenesis. However, the role and regulation of FoxM1 in gastric cancer remain unknown.^ I examined FoxM1 expression in 86 cases of primary gastric cancer and 57 normal gastric tissue specimens. I found weak expression of FoxM1 protein in normal gastric mucosa, whereas I observed strong staining for FoxM1 in tumor-cell nuclei in various gastric tumors and lymph node metastases. The aberrant FoxM1 expression is associated with VEGF expression and increased angiogenesis in human gastric cancer. A Cox proportional hazards model revealed that FoxM1 expression was an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. Furthermore, overexpression of FoxM1 by gene transfer significantly promoted the growth and metastasis of gastric cancer cells in orthotopic mouse models, whereas knockdown of FoxM1 expression by small interfering RNA did the opposite. Next, I observed that alteration of tumor growth and metastasis by elevated FoxM1 expression was directly correlated with alteration of VEGF expression and angiogenesis. In addition, promotion of gastric tumorigenesis by FoxM1 directly and significantly correlated with transactivation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression and elevation of angiogenesis. ^ To further investigate the underlying mechanisms that result in FoxM1 overexpression in gastric cancer, I investigated FoxM1 and Krüppel-like factor 4 (KLF4) expressions in primary gastric cancer and normal gastric tissue specimens. Concomitance of increased expression of FoxM1 protein and decreased expression of KLF4 protein was evident in human gastric cancer. Enforced KLF4 expression suppressed FoxM1 protein expression. Moreover, a region within the proximal FoxM1 promoter was identified to have KLF4-binding sites. Finally, I found an increased FoxM1 expression in gastric mucosa of villin-Cre -directed tissue specific Klf4-null mice.^ In summary, I offered both clinical and mechanistic evidence that dysregulated expression of FoxM1 play an important role in gastric cancer development and progression, while KLF4 mediates negative regulation of FoxM1 expression and its loss significantly contributes to FoxM1 dysregulation. ^

Association of maternal sphinganine:sphingosine ratio and folate levels with neural tube defects along the South Texas border

Neural tube defects (NTDs) remain elevated in Hispanic women along the South Texas Border, despite folate supplementation and folate fortification of cereal products. Missmer et al. examined the relationships between fumonisins, a class of corn mycotoxin, and NTDs in Hispanic women who ate corn tortillas and found increased odds ratios with increasing exposure, as measured by serum sphinganine:sphingosine (sa:so) ratios. This study examined the interactions between categorized maternal serum folate levels and stratified sa:so ratios and the resultant odds ratios of NTDs, stratified by type (anencephaly and spina bifida). The hypothesis was that the above normal folate category would have lower odds ratios of NTDs at given sa:so ratio categories and that there would be a difference in odds ratio patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida. Methods. Data for 406 Hispanic women were obtained from the Missmer case-control study. Sa:so ratios were calculated and subjects were stratified into “below normal,” “normal,” and above normal range for folate. A logistic regression model was applied, controlling for BMI, serum B12, lab batch, and conception date. Results. While OR’s of NTDs increased for increasing sa:so ratios, OR’s for “above normal” folate were not decreased at any sa:so ratio and there was no statistically significant difference between OR’s of anencephaly and spina bifida. Conclusion. Folate does not appear to be protective against the potential teratogenic effect of fumonisins and did not differ in effect on OR’s of NTD by type. More research is necessary to determine the extent of fumonisin exposure in Hispanic women along the South Texas Border.^

The origin and development of hyperammonemia following exposure to hydrazine in rabbits

Hydrazine $\rm (N\sb2H\sb4),$ an important liquid propellant and derivative chemical for pharmaceuticals and pesticides, produces coma and convulsions sometimes resulting in death. Hyperammonia was found in rabbits exposed to 18 mg/Kg of hydrazine. Results of Part One of this study of rabbits emphasize the importance of acute ammonia toxicity during the first three hours following exposure to hydrazine. At no time during this post exposure period did a significant reduction of hydrazine to ammonia occur. Therefore, the elevated blood ammonia was apparently secondary to the effects of hydrazine on metabolic pathways. Further, the results support the theory of competitive inhibition of ammonia by hydrazine and emphasize the need to monitor plasma ammonia following toxic exposure to hydrazine.^ In Part Two, urea, ammonia, CO$\sb2,$ pH, glucose, sodium, potassium, chloride and creatinine were measured for up to 4 hours following injection of 18 mg/Kg of hydrazine in each of two groups of five rabbits. One group received normal saline and the other group received 5% dextrose and water/normal saline. Hyperammonemia, minimal metabolic acidosis and hyperglycemia without increased urea were found in the rabbits receiving normal saline intravenous infusion and hydrazine injection. Hence, hypoglycemia does not appear to play a role in the development of hyperammonemia. A significant difference in the elevated ammonia levels between the two groups receiving dextrose and water/normal saline and normal saline at 1 hour occurred. There was no significant difference in the elevated ammonia levels seen between the two groups receiving dextrose and water/normal saline and normal saline at 2.5 and 4 hours. Thus at 1 hour the group receiving dextrose was able to utilize excess glucose to detoxify ammonia, while at 2.5 and 4 hours there was no significant difference in the two groups' ability to detoxify ammonia.^ Findings support the theory that hydrazine inhibits the formation of urea resulting in hyperammonemia. Results suggest that hydrazine at 18 mg/Kg, a known hypoglycemic agent, causes serious hyperammonemia without increasing urea production during hyperglycemia. These experiments support a unified theory for the toxic mechanism of action of hydrazine, i.e., the intermediary metabolic effects of hydrazine are brought about by the formation of hydrazones which encumber ATP synthesis and vitamin B$\sb6$ enzymatic reactions. ^

NOVEL THERAPEUTIC TARGETS IDENTIFIED BY HIGH-THROUGHPUT TECHNOLOGIES FOR TRIPLE-NEGATIVE BREAST CANCER

Triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC) are characterized by the lack of or reduced expression of the estrogen and progesterone receptors, and normal expression of the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. The lack of a well-characterized target for treatment leaves only systemic chemotherapy as the mainstay of treatment. Approximately 60-70% of patients are chemosensitive, while the remaining majority does not respond. Targeted therapies that take advantage of the unique molecular perturbations found in triple-negative breast cancer are needed. The genes that are frequently amplified or overexpressed represent potential therapeutic targets for triple-negative breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to identify and validate novel therapeutic targets for triple-negative breast cancers. 681 genes showed consistent and highly significant overexpression in TNBC compared to receptor-positive cancers in 2 data sets. For two genes, 3 of the 4 siRNAs showed preferential growth inhibition in TNBC cells. These two genes were the low density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 8 (LRP8) and very low-density lipoprotein receptor (VLDLR). Exposure to their cognate ligands, reelin and apolipoprotein E isoform 4 (ApoE4), stimulated the growth of TNBC cells in vitro. Suppression of the expression of either LRP8 or VLDLR or exposure to RAP (an inhibitor of ligand binding to LRP8 and VLDLR) abolished this ligand-induced proliferation. High-throughput protein and metabolic arrays revealed that ApoE4 stimulation rescued TNBC cells from serum-starvation induced up-regulation of genes involved in lipid biosynthesis, increased protein expression of oncogenes involved in the MAPK/ERK and DNA repair pathways, and reduced the serum-starvation induction of biochemicals involved in oxidative stress response and glycolytic metabolism. shLRP8 MDA-MB-231 xenografts had reduced tumor volume, in comparison to parental and shCON xenografts. These results indicate that LRP8-APOE signaling confers survival advantages to TNBC tumors under reduced nutrient conditions and during cellular environmental stress. We revealed that the LRP8-APOE receptor-ligand system is overexpressed in human TNBC. We also demonstrated that this receptor system mediates a strong growth promoting and survival function in TNBC cells in vitro and helps to sustain the growth of MDA-MD-231 xenografts. We propose that inhibitors of LRP8-APOE signaling may be clinically useful therapeutic agents for triple-negative breast cancer.

Specificity of somatostatin receptor and G -protein interactions as characterized by somatostatin receptor subtype specific antibodies

The neuropeptide somatostatin is a widely distributed general inhibitor of endocrine, exocrine, gastrointestinal and neural functions. The biological actions of somatostatin are initiated by interaction with high affinity, plasma membrane somatostatin receptors (sst receptors). Five sst receptor subtypes have been cloned and sequence analysis shows they are all members of the G protein coupled receptor superfamily. The G proteins play a pivotal role in sst receptor signal transduction and the specificity of somatostatin receptor-G protein coupling defines the possible range of cellular responses. However, the data for endogenous sst receptor and G protein coupling is very limited, and even when it is available, the sst receptor subtypes involved in G protein coupling and signal transduction are unknown due to the expression of multiple sst receptor subtypes in target cell lines or tissues of somatostatin.^ In an effort to characterize each individual sst receptor subtypes, antisera against unique C-terminal regions of different sst receptor subtypes have been developed in our lab. In this report, antisera made against the sst1, sst2A and sst4 receptors are characterized. They are highly specific to their corresponding receptors and efficiently immunoprecipitate the sst receptors. Using these antibodies, the cell lines expressing these sst receptor subtypes were identified with both immunoprecipitation and Western blot methods. The development of sst receptor subtype specific antibodies make it possible to determine the specificity of the sst receptor subtype and G protein coupling in target cells or tissues expressing multiple sst receptors, two questions were addressed by this thesis: (1) whether different cellular environments affect receptor subtype and G protein coupling; (2) whether different sst receptors couple to different G proteins in similar cellular environments.^ Taken together our findings, both sst1 and sst2A receptors couple with G$\alpha\sb{\rm i1},$ G$\alpha\sb{\rm i2}$ and G$\alpha\sb{\rm i3}$ in CHO cells, G$\alpha\sb{\rm i2}$ and G$\alpha\sb{\rm i3}$ in GH$\sb4$C$\sb1$ cells. Further, sst2A receptors couple with G$\alpha\sb{\rm i1},$ G$\alpha\sb{\rm i2}$ and G$\alpha\sb{\rm i3}$ in AR4-2J cells while sst4 receptors couple with G$\alpha\sb{\rm i2}$ and G$\alpha\sb{\rm i3}$ in CHO cells. Therefore, the G protein coupling of the same sst receptors in different cell lines is basically similar in that they all couple with multiple $\alpha$-subunits of the G$\rm \sb{i}$ proteins, suggesting cellular environment has little effect on receptor and G protein coupling. Moreover, different sst receptors have similar G protein coupling specificities in the same cell line, suggesting components other than receptor and G$\alpha$ subunits in the signal transduction pathways may contribute to specific functions of each sst receptor subtype. This series of experiments represent a novel approach in dissecting signal transduction pathways and may have general application in the field. Furthermore, this is the first systematic study of sst receptor subtype and G protein $\alpha$-subunit interaction in both transfected cells and in normal cell lines. The information generated will be very useful in our understanding of sst receptor signal transduction pathways and in directing future sst receptor research. ^