12 resultados para Conditional and Unconditional Interval Estimator

em DigitalCommons@The Texas Medical Center


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The magnitude of the interaction between cigarette smoking, radiation therapy, and primary lung cancer after breast cancer remains unresolved. This case control study further examines the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation therapy (XRT) among breast cancer patients who subsequently developed primary lung cancer, at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) in Houston, Texas. Cases (n = 280) were women diagnosed with primary lung cancer between 1955 and 1970, between 30–89 years of age, who had a prior history of breast cancer, and were U.S. residents. Controls (n = 300) were randomly selected from 37,000 breast cancer patients at MDACC and frequency matched to cases on age at diagnosis (in 5-year strata), ethnicity, year of breast cancer diagnosis (in 5-year strata), and had survived at least as long as the time interval for lung cancer diagnosis in the cases. Stratified analysis and unconditional logistic regression modeling were used to calculate the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation treatment on lung cancer risk. Medical record review yielded smoking information on 93% of cases and 84% of controls, and among cases 45% received XRT versus 44% of controls. Smoking increased the odds of lung cancer in women who did not receive XRT (OR = 6.0, 95%CI, 3.5–10.1) whereas XRT was not associated with increased odds (OR = 0.5, 95%CI, 0.2–1.1) in women who did not smoke. Overall the odds ratio for both XRT and smoking together compared with neither exposure was 9.00 (9 5% CI, 5.1–15.9). Similarly, when stratifying on laterality of the lung cancer in relation to the breast cancer, and when the time interval between breast and lung cancers was >10 years, there was an increased odds for both smoking and XRT together for lung cancers on the same side as the breast cancer (ipsilateral) (OR = 11.5, 95% CI, 4.9–27.8) and lung cancers on the opposite side of the breast cancer (contralateral) (OR= 9.6, 95% CI, 2.9–0.9). After 20 years the odds for the ipsilateral lung were even more pronounced (OR = 19.2, 95% CI, 4.2–88.4) compared to the contralateral lung (OR = 2.6, 95% CI, 0.2–2.1). In conclusion, smoking was a significant independent risk factor for lung cancer after breast cancer. Moreover, a greater than multiplicative effect was observed with smoking and XRT combined being especially evident after 10 years for both the ipsilateral and contralateral lung and after 20 years for the ipsilateral lung. ^

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Extremes of electrocardiographic QT interval are associated with increased risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD); thus, identification and characterization of genetic variants that modulate QT interval may elucidate the underlying etiology of SCD. Previous studies have revealed an association between a common genetic variant in NOS1AP and QT interval in populations of European ancestry, but this finding has not been extended to other ethnic populations. We sought to characterize the effects of NOS1AP genetic variants on QT interval in the multi-ethnic population-based Dallas Heart Study (DHS, n = 3,072). The SNP most strongly associated with QT interval in previous samples of European ancestry, rs16847548, was the most strongly associated in White (P = 0.005) and Black (P = 3.6 x 10(-5)) participants, with the same direction of effect in Hispanics (P = 0.17), and further showed a significant SNP x sex-interaction (P = 0.03). A second SNP, rs16856785, uncorrelated with rs16847548, was also associated with QT interval in Blacks (P = 0.01), with qualitatively similar results in Whites and Hispanics. In a previously genotyped cohort of 14,107 White individuals drawn from the combined Atherosclerotic Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) cohorts, we validated both the second locus at rs16856785 (P = 7.63 x 10(-8)), as well as the sex-interaction with rs16847548 (P = 8.68 x 10(-6)). These data extend the association of genetic variants in NOS1AP with QT interval to a Black population, with similar trends, though not statistically significant at P<0.05, in Hispanics. In addition, we identify a strong sex-interaction and the presence of a second independent site within NOS1AP associated with the QT interval. These results highlight the consistent and complex role of NOS1AP genetic variants in modulating QT interval.

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Many public health agencies and researchers are interested in comparing hospital outcomes, for example, morbidity, mortality, and hospitalization across areas and hospitals. However, since there is variation of rates in clinical trials among hospitals because of several biases, we are interested in controlling for the bias and assessing real differences in clinical practices. In this study, we compared the variations between hospitals in rates of severe Intraventricular Haemorrhage (IVH) infant using Frequentist statistical approach vs. Bayesian hierarchical model through simulation study. The template data set for simulation study was included the number of severe IVH infants of 24 intensive care units in Australian and New Zealand Neonatal Network from 1995 to 1997 in severe IVH rate in preterm babies. We evaluated the rates of severe IVH for 24 hospitals with two hierarchical models in Bayesian approach comparing their performances with the shrunken rates in Frequentist method. Gamma-Poisson (BGP) and Beta-Binomial (BBB) were introduced into Bayesian model and the shrunken estimator of Gamma-Poisson (FGP) hierarchical model using maximum likelihood method were calculated as Frequentist approach. To simulate data, the total number of infants in each hospital was kept and we analyzed the simulated data for both Bayesian and Frequentist models with two true parameters for severe IVH rate. One was the observed rate and the other was the expected severe IVH rate by adjusting for five predictors variables for the template data. The bias in the rate of severe IVH infant estimated by both models showed that Bayesian models gave less variable estimates than Frequentist model. We also discussed and compared the results from three models to examine the variation in rate of severe IVH by 20th centile rates and avoidable number of severe IVH cases. ^

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In prospective studies it is essential that the study sample accurately represents the target population for meaningful inferences to be drawn. Understanding why some individuals do not participate, or fail to continue to participate, in longitudinal studies can provide an empirical basis for the development of effective recruitment and retention strategies to improve response rates. This study examined the influence of social connectedness and self-esteem on long-term retention of participants, using secondary data from the “San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging” (SALSA), a population-based study of Mexican Americans (MAs) and European Americans (EAs) aged over 65 years residing in San Antonio, Texas. We tested the effect of social connectedness, self-esteem and socioeconomic status on participant retention in both ethnic groups. In MAs only, we analyzed whether acculturation and assimilation moderated these associations and/or had a direct effect on participant retention. ^ Low income, low frequency of social contacts and length of recruitment interval were significant predictors of non-completer status. Participants with low levels of social contacts were almost twice as likely as those with high levels of social contacts to be non-completers, even after adjustment for age, sex, ethnic group, education, household income, and recruitment interval (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.26–3.01, p = 0.003). Recruitment interval consistently and strongly predicted non-completer status in all the models tested. Depending on the model, for each year beyond baseline there was a 25–33% greater likelihood of non-completion. The only significant interaction, or moderating, effect observed was between social contacts and cultural values among MAs. Specifically, MAs with both low social contacts and low acculturation on cultural values (i.e., placed high value on preserving Mexican cultural origins) were three and half times more likely to be non-completers compared with MAs in other subgroups comprised of the combination of these variables, even after adjustment for covariates. ^ Long term studies with older and minority participants are challenging for participant retention. Strategies can be designed to enhance retention by paying special attention to participants with low social contacts and, in MAs, participants with both low social contacts and low acculturation on cultural values. Minimizing the time interval between baseline and follow-up recruitment, and maintaining frequent contact with participants during this interval should also be is integral to the study design.^

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This investigation compares two different methodologies for calculating the national cost of epilepsy: provider-based survey method (PBSM) and the patient-based medical charts and billing method (PBMC&BM). The PBSM uses the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS), the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) and the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) as the sources of utilization. The PBMC&BM uses patient data, charts and billings, to determine utilization rates for specific components of hospital, physician and drug prescriptions. ^ The 1995 hospital and physician cost of epilepsy is estimated to be $722 million using the PBSM and $1,058 million using the PBMC&BM. The difference of $336 million results from $136 million difference in utilization and $200 million difference in unit cost. ^ Utilization. The utilization difference of $136 million is composed of an inpatient variation of $129 million, $100 million hospital and $29 million physician, and an ambulatory variation of $7 million. The $100 million hospital variance is attributed to inclusion of febrile seizures in the PBSM, $−79 million, and the exclusion of admissions attributed to epilepsy, $179 million. The former suggests that the diagnostic codes used in the NHDS may not properly match the current definition of epilepsy as used in the PBMC&BM. The latter suggests NHDS errors in the attribution of an admission to the principal diagnosis. ^ The $29 million variance in inpatient physician utilization is the result of different per-day-of-care physician visit rates, 1.3 for the PBMC&BM versus 1.0 for the PBSM. The absence of visit frequency measures in the NHDS affects the internal validity of the PBSM estimate and requires the investigator to make conservative assumptions. ^ The remaining ambulatory resource utilization variance is $7 million. Of this amount, $22 million is the result of an underestimate of ancillaries in the NHAMCS and NAMCS extrapolations using the patient visit weight. ^ Unit cost. The resource cost variation is $200 million, inpatient is $22 million and ambulatory is $178 million. The inpatient variation of $22 million is composed of $19 million in hospital per day rates, due to a higher cost per day in the PBMC&BM, and $3 million in physician visit rates, due to a higher cost per visit in the PBMC&BM. ^ The ambulatory cost variance is $178 million, composed of higher per-physician-visit costs of $97 million and higher per-ancillary costs of $81 million. Both are attributed to the PBMC&BM's precise identification of resource utilization that permits accurate valuation. ^ Conclusion. Both methods have specific limitations. The PBSM strengths are its sample designs that lead to nationally representative estimates and permit statistical point and confidence interval estimation for the nation for certain variables under investigation. However, the findings of this investigation suggest the internal validity of the estimates derived is questionable and important additional information required to precisely estimate the cost of an illness is absent. ^ The PBMC&BM is a superior method in identifying resources utilized in the physician encounter with the patient permitting more accurate valuation. However, the PBMC&BM does not have the statistical reliability of the PBSM; it relies on synthesized national prevalence estimates to extrapolate a national cost estimate. While precision is important, the ability to generalize to the nation may be limited due to the small number of patients that are followed. ^

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The cause of testicular cancer is not known and recent hypotheses have suggested an altered hormonal milieu may increase the risk of testis cancer. This study examined modulation of testicular cancer risk by hormonal factors, specifically: environmental xenoestrogens (e.g. organochlorines), prenatal maternal estrogens, testosterone indices (age at puberty, severe adolescent acne, self-reported balding), sedentary lifestyle and dietary consumption of fats and phytoestrogens.^ A hospital based friend matched case-control study was conducted at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas, between January 1990 and October 1996. Cases had a first primary testis tumor diagnosed between age 18 to 50 years and resided in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma or Arkansas.^ Cases and friend controls completed a mail questionnaire and case/control mothers were contacted by phone regarding pregnancy related variables. The study population comprised 187 cases, 148 controls, 147 case mothers and 86 control mothers. Odds ratios were virtually identical whether the match was retained or dissolved, thus the analyses were conducted using unconditional logistic regression.^ Cryptorchidism was a strong risk factor for testis cancer with an age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 7.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-26.3). In a final model (adjusted for age, education, and cryptorchidism), history of severe adolescent acne and self-reported balding were both significantly protective, as hypothesized. For acne (yes vs. no) the OR was 0.5 (CI: 0.3-1.0) and for balding (yes vs. no) the OR was 0.6 (CI: 0.3-1.0). Marijuana smoking was a risk factor among heavy, regular users (17 times/week, OR = 2.4; CI: 0.9-6.4) and higher saturated fat intake increased testis cancer risk (saturated fat intake $>$ 15.2 grams/day vs. $<$ 11.8 grams/day, OR = 3.3; CI: 1.5-7.1). Early puberty, xenoestrogen exposure, elevated maternal estrogen levels, sedentary lifestyle and dietary phytoestrogen intake were not associated with risk of testicular cancer.^ In conclusion, testicular cancer may be associated with endogenous androgen metabolism although environmental estrogen exposure can not be ruled out. Further research is needed to understand the underlying hormonal mechanisms and possible dietary influences. ^

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In classical conditioning, an associative form of learning, animals learn to associate two stimuli. Cellular and molecular mechanisms for the induction and consolidation of associative learning and memory at the level of single cells and synaptic connections have been studied in both vertebrate and invertebrate animals. The majority of studies, however, relied on aversive stimuli to induce learning. This bias may limit the extent to which identified mechanisms generalize to other forms of associative learning and memory, such as appetitive forms. The goal of the present study was to develop a classical conditioning procedure for the marine mollusk Aplysia californica using appetitive reinforcement, and to analyze associative learning using behavioral and electrophysiological techniques. ^ Using tactile stimulation of the lips as the conditional stimulus (CS) and food as the unconditional stimulus (US) a training protocol was developed that reliably induced classical conditioning of feeding behavior. Memory persisted for at least 24 hours. The gross organization of reinforcement-mediating pathways was analyzed in additional behavioral experiments. Moreover, neurophysiological correlates of classical conditioning were identified and characterized in an in vitro preparation containing the circuitry for feeding behavior. In vitro stimulation of a nerve (AT4) that may mediate the CS during training, resulted in a greater number of buccal motor patterns (BMPs) in brains from conditioned animals, as compared to control animals. The majority of these BMPs were ingestion-like, consistent with the increased number of bites in response to the CS after classical conditioning. Moreover, classical conditioning correlated with increased excitatory synaptic input to BMP-initiating neuron B31/32, in response to stimulation of AT 4, as compared to controls. The expression of the correlates of classical conditioning identified in this study was specific to stimulation of AT 4, which is consistent the stimulus specificity that is characteristic for classical conditioning. ^ The identification of cellular correlates of classical conditioning documented here provides the basis for future, more detailed analyses of an appetitive form of associative learning and memory, that may extend the working knowledge of the cellular and molecular mechanisms for associative plasticity in general. ^

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Sry and Wnt4 cDNAs were individually introduced into the ubiquitously-expressed Rosa26 ( R26) locus by gene targeting in embryonic stem (ES) cells to create a conditional gene expression system in mice. In the targeted alleles, expression of these cDNAs should be blocked by a neomycin resistance selection cassette that is flanked by loxP sites. Transgene expression should be activated after the blocking cassette is deleted by Cre recombinase. ^ To test this conditional expression system, I have bred R26-stop- Sry and R26-stop-Wnt4 heterozygotes with a MisRII-Cre mouse line that expresses Cre in the gonads of both sexes. Analysis of these two types of bigenic heterozygotes indicated that their gonads developed normally like those of wild types. However, one XX R26-Sry/R26-Sry; MisR2-Cre/+ showed epididymis-like structures resembling those of males. In contrast, only normal phenotypes were observed in XY R26-Wnt4/R26-Wnt4; MisR2-Cre /+ mice. To interpret these results, I have tested for Cre recombinase activity by Southern blot and transcription of the Sry and Wnt4 transgenes by RT-PCR. Results showed that bigenic mutants had insufficient activation of the transgenes in their gonads at E12.5 and E13.5. Therefore, the failure to observe mutant phenotypes may have resulted from low activity of MisR2-Cre recombination at the appropriate time. ^ Col2a1-Cre transgenic mice express Cre in differentiating chondrocytes. R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre bigenic heterozygous mice were found to exhibit a dramatic alteration in growth presumably caused by Wnt4 overexpression during chondrogenesis. R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre mice exhibited dwarfism beginning approximately 10 days after birth. In addition, they also had craniofacial abnormalities, and had delayed ossification of the lumbar vertebrate and pelvic bones. Histological analysis of the growth plates of R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre mice revealed less structural organization and a delay in onset of the primary and secondary ossification centers. Molecular studies confirmed that overexpression of Wnt4 causes decreased proliferation and early maturation of chondrocytes. In addition, R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre mice had decreased expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), suggesting that defects in vascularization may contribute to the dwarf phenotype. Finally, 9-month-old R26-Wnt4; Col2a1-Cre mice had significantly more fat cells in the marrow cavities of their metaphysis long bones, implying that long-term overexpression of Wnt4may cause bone marrow pathologies. In conclusion, Wnt4 was activated by Col2a1-Cre recombinase and was overexpressed in the growth plate, resulting in aberrant proliferation and differentiation of chondrocytes, and ultimately leads to dwarfism in mice. ^

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Cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx remains one of the ten leading causes of cancer death in the United States (US). Besides smoking and alcohol consumption, there are no well established risk factors. While poor dental care had been implicated, it is unknown if the lack of dental care, implying poor dental hygiene predisposes to oral cavity cancer. This study aimed to assess the relationship between dental care utilization during the past twelve months and the prevalence of oral cavity cancer. A cross-sectional design of the National Health Interview Survey of adult, non-institutionalized US residents (n=30,475) was used to assess the association between dental care utilization and self reported diagnosis of oral cavity cancer. Chi square statistic was used to examine the crude association between the predictor variable, dental care utilization and other covariates, while unconditional logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between oral cavity cancer and dental care utilization. There were statistically significant differences between those who utilized dental care during the past twelve months and those who did not with respect to education, income, age, marital status, and gender (p < 0.05), but not health insurance coverage (p = 0.53). Also, those who utilized dental care relative to those who did not were 65% less likely to present with oral cavity cancer, prevalence odds ratio (POR), 0.35, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.12–0.98. Further, higher income advanced age, people of African heritage, and unmarried status were statistically significantly associated with oral cavity cancer, (p < 0.05), but health insurance coverage, alcohol use and smoking were not, p > 0.05. However, after simultaneously controlling for the relevant covariates, the association between dental care and oral cavity cancer did not attenuate nor persist. Thus, compared with those who did not use dental care, those who did wee 62% less likely to present with oral cavity cancer adjusted POR, 0.38, 95% CI, 0.13-1.10. Among US adults residing in community settings, use of dental care during the past twelve months did not significantly reduce the predisposition to oral cavity cancer. However, due to the nature of the data used in this study, which restricts temporal sequence, a large sample prospective study that may identify modifiable factors associated with oral cancer development namely poor dental care, is needed. ^

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BACKGROUND: Weight has been implicated as a risk factor for symptomatic community-acquired methicillin resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (CA-MRSA). Information from Texas Children's Hospital (TCH) in Houston, TX was used to implement a case-control study to assess weight-for-age percentile (WFA), race and seasonal exposure as risk factors. ^ METHODS: A retrospective chart review to collect data from TCH was conducted covering the time period January 1st, 2008 to May 31st, 2011. Cases were confirmed and identified by the infectious disease department and were matched on a 1:1 ratio to controls that were seen by the emergency department for non-infected fractures from June 1st, 2008 to May 31st, 2011. Data abstraction was performed using TCH's electronic medical records (EMR) system (EPIC ®). ^ RESULTS: Of 702 CA-MRSA identified cases, ages 9 to 16.99, 564 (80.3%) had the variable `weight' present in their EMR, were not duplicates and not determined to be outliers. Cases were randomly matched to a pool of available controls (n=1864) according to age and gender, yielding 539 1:1 matched pairs (95.5% case matching success) with a total study sample size, N=1078. Case median age was 13.38 years with the majority being White (66.05%) and male (59.4%). Adjusted conditional logistic regression analysis of the matched pairs identified the following risk factors to presenting with CA-MRSA infection among pediatric patients, ages 9 to 16.99 years: a) Individual weight in the highest (75th-99.9th) WFA quartile (OR=1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.06-1.74; P= 0.016), b) Infection during summer months (OR: 1.69; 95% CI=1.2-2.38; P= 0.003), c) patients of African American race/ethnicity (OR= 1.48; 95% CI=1.13-1.95; P= 0.004). ^ CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric patients, 9 to 16.99 years of age, in the highest WFA quartile (75th-99.9th), or of African-American race had an associated increased risk of presenting with CA-MRSA infection. Furthermore, children in this population were at a higher risk of contracting CA-MRSA infection during the summer season.^

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The problem of analyzing data with updated measurements in the time-dependent proportional hazards model arises frequently in practice. One available option is to reduce the number of intervals (or updated measurements) to be included in the Cox regression model. We empirically investigated the bias of the estimator of the time-dependent covariate while varying the effect of failure rate, sample size, true values of the parameters and the number of intervals. We also evaluated how often a time-dependent covariate needs to be collected and assessed the effect of sample size and failure rate on the power of testing a time-dependent effect.^ A time-dependent proportional hazards model with two binary covariates was considered. The time axis was partitioned into k intervals. The baseline hazard was assumed to be 1 so that the failure times were exponentially distributed in the ith interval. A type II censoring model was adopted to characterize the failure rate. The factors of interest were sample size (500, 1000), type II censoring with failure rates of 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, and three values for each of the non-time-dependent and time-dependent covariates (1/4,1/2,3/4).^ The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate decreased as sample size and number of intervals increased whereas the mean of the bias increased as failure rate and true values of the covariates increased. The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient was smallest when all of the updated measurements were used in the model compared with two models that used selected measurements of the time-dependent covariate. For the model that included all the measurements, the coverage rates of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate was in most cases 90% or more except when the failure rate was high (0.20). The power associated with testing a time-dependent effect was highest when all of the measurements of the time-dependent covariate were used. An example from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program Cooperative Research Group is presented. ^

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Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^