3 resultados para Competing risks, Estimation of predator mortality, Over dispersion, Stochastic modeling
em DigitalCommons@The Texas Medical Center
Resumo:
Many persons in the U.S. gain weight during young adulthood, and the prevalence of obesity has been increasing among young adults. Although obesity and physical inactivity are generally recognized as risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), the magnitude of their effect on risk may have been seriously underestimated due to failure to adequately handle the problem of cigarette smoking. Since cigarette smoking causes weight loss, physically inactive cigarette smokers may remain relatively lean because they smoke cigarettes. We hypothesize cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain during young adulthood and risk of coronary heart disease during middle age, and that the true effect of weight gain during young adulthood on risk of CHD can be assessed only in persons who have not smoked cigarettes. Specifically, we hypothesize that weight gain during young adulthood is positively associated with risk of CHD during middle-age in nonsmokers but that the association is much smaller or absent entirely among cigarette smokers. The purpose of this study was to test this hypothesis. The population for analysis was comprised of 1,934 middle-aged, employed men whose average age at the baseline examination was 48.7 years. Information collected at the baseline examinations in 1958 and 1959 included recalled weight at age 20, present weight, height, smoking status, and other CHD risk factors. To decrease the effect of intraindividual variation, the mean values of the 1958 and 1959 baseline examinations were used in analyses. Change in body mass index ($\Delta$BMI) during young adulthood was the primary exposure variable and was measured as BMI at baseline (kg/m$\sp2)$ minus BMI at age 20 (kg/m$\sp2).$ Proportional hazards regression analysis was used to generate relative risks of CHD mortality by category of $\Delta$BMI and cigarette smoking status after adjustment for age, family history of CVD, major organ system disease, BMI at age 20, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Adjustment was not performed for systolic blood pressure or total serum cholesterol as these were regarded as intervening variables. Vital status was known for all men on the 25th anniversary of their baseline examinations. 705 deaths (including 319 CHD deaths) occurred over 40,136 person-years of experience. $\Delta$BMI was positively associated with risk of CHD mortality in never-smokers, but not in ever-smokers (p for interaction = 0.067). For never-smokers with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 1.62, 1.61, and 2.78, respectively (p for trend = 0.010). For ever-smokers, with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 0.74, 1.07, and 1.06, respectively (p for trend = 0.422). These results support the research hypothesis that cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain and CHD mortality. Current estimates of the magnitude of effect of obesity and physical inactivity on risk of coronary mortality may have been seriously underestimated due to inadequate handling of cigarette smoking. ^
Resumo:
Data derived from 1,194 gravidas presenting at the observation unit of a city/county hospital between October 11, 1979 through December 7, 1979 were evaluated with respect to the proportion ingesting drugs during pregnancy. The mean age of the mother at the time of the interview was 22.0 years; 43.0 percent were Black; 34.0 percent Latin-American, 21.0 percent White and 2.0 percent other; mean gravida was 2.5 pregnancies; mean parity was 1.0; and mean number of previous abortions was 0.34. Completed interview data was available for 1,119 gravida, corresponding urinalyses for 997 subjects. Ninety and one-tenth percent (90.1 percent) of the subjects reported ingestion of one or more drug preparation(s) (prescription, OTC, or substances used for recreational purposes) during pregnancy with a range of 0 to 11 substances and a mean of 2.7. Dietary supplements (vitamins and minerals) were most frequently reported followed by non-narcotic analgesics. Seventy-six and one tenth percent (76.1 percent) of the population reported consumption of prescription medication, 42.5 percent reported consumption of over-the-counter medications, 45.7 percent reported consumption of a substance for recreational purposes and 4.3 percent reported illicit consumption of a substance. For selected substances, no measurable difference was found between obtaining the information from the interview method or from a urinalysis assay. ^
Resumo:
A number of medical and social developments have had an impact on the neonatal mortality over the past ten to 15 years in the United States. The purpose of this study was to examine one of these developments, Newborn Intensive Care Units (NICUs), and evaluate their impact on neonatal mortality in Houston, Texas.^ This study was unique in that it used as its data base matched birth and infant death records from two periods of time: 1958-1960 (before NICUs) and 1974-1976 (after NICUs). The neonatal mortality of single, live infants born to Houston resident mothers was compared for two groups: infants born in hospitals which developed NICUs and infants born in all other Houston hospitals. Neonatal mortality comparisons were made using the following birth-characteristic variables: birthweight, gestation, race, sex, maternal age, legitimacy, birth order and prenatal care.^ The results of the study showed that hospitals which developed NICUs had a higher percentage of their population with high risk characteristics. In spite of this, they had lower neonatal mortality rates in two categories: (1) white 3.5-5.5 pounds birthweight infants, (2) low birthweight infants whose mothers received no prenatal care. Black 3.5-5.5 pounds birthweight infants did equally well in either hospital group. While the differences between the two hospital groups for these categories were not statistically significant at the p < 0.05 level, data from the 1958-1960 period substantiate that a marked change occurred in the 3.5-5.5 pounds birthweight category for those infants born in hospitals which developed NICUs. Early data were not available for prenatal care. These findings support the conclusion that, in Houston, NICUs had some impact on neonatal mortality among moderately underweight infants. ^