10 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models
em DigitalCommons@The Texas Medical Center
Resumo:
It has been hypothesized that results from the short term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Although toxicologic test systems have become increasingly refined, to date, no investigator has been able to provide qualitative or quantitative methods which would support the use of short term tests in this capacity.^ Historically, the validity of the short term tests have been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used in the setting of priorities. In contrast, the goal of this research was to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation.^ Chemical carcinogens were selected from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC). Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on fifty-two chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The relative potency framework allows for the standardization of data "relative" to a reference compound. To avoid any bias associated with the choice of the reference compound, fourteen different compounds were used.^ The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). The results were statistically significant (p $<$.05) for data standardized to thirteen of the fourteen reference compounds. Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short term test systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may be human carcinogens. ^
Resumo:
Two respirable coal fly ash samples ((LESSTHEQ) 3(mu)m), one from a pressurized fluidized-bed combustion miniplant and one from a conventional combustion power plant, were investigated for physical properties, chemical composition and biological activity. Electron microscopy illustrated irregularity in fluidized-bed combustion fly ash and sphericity in conventional combustion fly ash. Elemental analysis of these samples showed differences in trace elements. Both fly ash samples were toxic in rabbit alveolar macrophage and Chinese hamster ovary cell systems in vitro. The macrophages were more sensitive to toxicity of fly ash than the ovary cells. For measuring the cytotoxicity of fly ash, the most sensitive parameters were adenosine triphosphate in the alveolar macrophage system and viability index in the hamster ovary system. Intact fluidized-bed combustion fly-ash particles showed mutagenicity only in strains TA98 and TA1538 without metabolic activation in the Ames Salmonella assay. No mutagenicity was detected in bioassay of conventional combustion fly ash particles. Solvent extraction yielded more mass from fluidized-bed combustion fly ash than from conventional combustion fly ash. The extracts of fluidized-bed combustion fly ash showed higher mutagenic activity than conventional combustion fly ash. These samples contained direct-acting, frameshift mutagens.^ Fly ash samples collected from the same fluidized-bed source by cyclones, a fabric filter, and a electrostatic precipitator at various temperatures were compared for particle size, toxicity, and mutagenicity. Results demonstrated that the biological activity of coal fly ash were affected by the collection site, device, and temperature.^ Coal fly ash vapor-coated with 1-nitropyrene was developed as a model system to study the bioavailability and recovery of nitroaromatic compounds in fly ash. The effects of vapor deposition on toxicity and mutagenicity of fly ash were examined. The nitropyrene coating did not significantly alter the ash's cytotoxicity. Nitropyrene was bioavailable in the biological media, and a significant percentage was not recovered after the coated fly ash was cultured with alveolar macrophages. 1-Nitropyrene loss increased as the number of macrophages was increased, suggesting that the macrophages are capable of metabolizing or binding 1-nitropyrene present in coal fly ash. ^
Resumo:
This dissertation develops and tests through path analysis a theoretical model to explain how socioeconomic, socioenvironmental, and biologic risk factors simultaneously influence each other to further produce short-term, depressed growth in preschoolers. Three areas of risk factors were identified: child's proximal environment, maturational stage, and biological vulnerability. The theoretical model represented both the conceptual framework and the nature and direction of the hypotheses. Original research completed in 1978-80 and in 1982 provided the background data. It was analyzed first by nested-analysis of variance, followed by path analysis. The study provided evidence of mild iron deficiency and gastrointestinal symptomatology in the etiology of depressed, short-term weight gain. Also, there was evidence suggesting that family resources for material and social survival significantly contribute to the variability of short-term, age-adjusted growth velocity. These results challenge current views of unifocal intervention, whether for prevention or control. For policy formulations, though, the mechanisms underlying any set of interlaced relationships must be decoded. Theoretical formulations here proposed should be reassessed under a more extensive research design. It is suggested that studies should be undertaken where social changes are actually in progress; otherwise, nutritional epidemiology in developing countries operates somewhere between social reality and research concepts, with little grasp of its real potential. The study stresses that there is a connection between substantive theory, empirical observation, and policy issues. ^
Resumo:
Aldgate, J. and Bradley, M. (1999). Supporting families through short-term fostering. London: The Stationery Office. This essay reviews a British qualitative study of short-term foster care from the perspectives of birth parents, children, foster parents, and social workers. Respondents highlighted the value of short-term foster care as a family support service and also offered many recommendations for improving service delivery. The study provides useful implications for restructuring child welfare services in the United States and for promoting cross-national collaboration in future research activities in the area of child and family services.
Resumo:
The tail-withdrawal circuit of Aplysia provides a useful model system for investigating synaptic dynamics. Sensory neurons within the circuit manifest several forms of synaptic plasticity. Here, we developed a model of the circuit and investigated the ways in which depression (DEP) and potentiation (POT) contributed to information processing. DEP limited the amount of motor neuron activity that could be elicited by the monosynaptic pathway alone. POT within the monosynaptic pathway did not compensate for DEP. There was, however, a synergistic interaction between POT and the polysynaptic pathway. This synergism extended the dynamic range of the network, and the interplay between DEP and POT made the circuit responded preferentially to long-duration, low-frequency inputs.
Resumo:
The tail-withdrawal circuit of Aplysia provides a useful model system for investigating synaptic dynamics. Sensory neurons within the circuit manifest several forms of synaptic plasticity. Here, we developed a model of the circuit and investigated the ways in which depression (DEP) and potentiation (POT) contributed to information processing. DEP limited the amount of motor neuron activity that could be elicited by the monosynaptic pathway alone. POT within the monosynaptic pathway did not compensate for DEP. There was, however, a synergistic interaction between POT and the polysynaptic pathway. This synergism extended the dynamic range of the network, and the interplay between DEP and POT made the circuit responded preferentially to long-duration, low-frequency inputs.
Resumo:
Plasticity at the connections between sensory neurons and their follower cells in Aplysia has been used extensively as a model system to examine mechanisms of simple forms of learning, such as sensitization. Sensitization is induced, at least in part, by the transmitter serotonin (5-HT) and expressed in several forms, including facilitation of sensorimotor connections. Spike broadening has been believed to be a key mechanism underlying facilitation of nondepressed synapses. Previously, this broadening was believed to be dependent primarily on cAMP/protein kinase A (PKA)-mediated reduction of a noninactivating, relatively voltage-independent K$\sp{+}$ current termed the S-K$\sp+$ current (I$\sb{\rm K{,}S}$). Recent evidence, however, suggests that 5-HT-induced somatic spike broadening is composed of at least two components: a cAMP-dependent, rapidly developing component and a cAMP-independent, slowly developing component.^ Phorbol esters, activators of protein kinase C (PKC), mimicked the cAMP-independent component of 5-HT-induced broadening. Staurosporine, which inhibits PKC, had little effect on the rapidly developing component of 5-HT-induced broadening, but inhibited significantly the slowly developing component. These results suggest that PKC is involved in the cAMP-independent component of 5-HT-induced broadening. The membrane currents responsible for the slowly developing component of broadening were examined. Activation of PKC mimicked, and partially occluded, 5-HT-induced modulation of membrane currents above 0 mV, where a voltage-dependent K$\sp+$ current (I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$) is significantly activated. This modulation was complex because it was associated with a reduction in the magnitude of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$, as well as a slowing of both activation and inactivation kinetics of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$. These results support the hypothesis that PKC modulates I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$ and that this modulation contributes to the slowly developing component of 5-HT-induced broadening. Based on these results and others, a new scheme for 5-HT-induced spike broadening is proposed in which the modulatory effects are mediated via two second messenger/protein kinase systems converging and diverging on multiple ionic conductances.^ The relationship between spike broadening and synaptic facilitation was also examined. Pharmacological reduction of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$ by low concentrations of 4-aminopyridine (4-AP) led to spike broadening and facilitation of the nondepressed sensorimotor connections, indicating that spike broadening via the reduction of I$\sc{K,V}$ can facilitate the synaptic connection. Further analyses, however, revealed that 4-AP-induced facilitation has qualitative differences from 5-HT- and PKC-induced facilitation. These results suggest that 5-HT- and PKC-induced facilitation of nondepressed synapses is mediated, at least in part, by spike-duration independent (SDI) processes. Under certain conditions, the PKC inhibitor, staurosporine, significantly inhibited the 5-HT-induced facilitation of sensorimotor connections.^ Finally, it was found that activation of PKC increased a basal level of cAMP and that PKC caused desensitization of the 5-HT receptor, which may be a possible negative feedback mechanism through which an extracellular ligand, 5-HT, is regulated. These results suggest that these two second messenger/protein kinase pathways can interact in the sensory neuron. Thus, neuronal plasticity that may contribute to learning and memory appears to involve several complex and interactive processes. ^
Resumo:
Withdrawal reflexes of the mollusk Aplysia exhibit sensitization, a simple form of long-term memory (LTM). Sensitization is due, in part, to long-term facilitation (LTF) of sensorimotor neuron synapses. LTF is induced by the modulatory actions of serotonin (5-HT). Pettigrew et al. developed a computational model of the nonlinear intracellular signaling and gene network that underlies the induction of 5-HT-induced LTF. The model simulated empirical observations that repeated applications of 5-HT induce persistent activation of protein kinase A (PKA) and that this persistent activation requires a suprathreshold exposure of 5-HT. This study extends the analysis of the Pettigrew model by applying bifurcation analysis, singularity theory, and numerical simulation. Using singularity theory, classification diagrams of parameter space were constructed, identifying regions with qualitatively different steady-state behaviors. The graphical representation of these regions illustrates the robustness of these regions to changes in model parameters. Because persistent protein kinase A (PKA) activity correlates with Aplysia LTM, the analysis focuses on a positive feedback loop in the model that tends to maintain PKA activity. In this loop, PKA phosphorylates a transcription factor (TF-1), thereby increasing the expression of an ubiquitin hydrolase (Ap-Uch). Ap-Uch then acts to increase PKA activity, closing the loop. This positive feedback loop manifests multiple, coexisting steady states, or multiplicity, which provides a mechanism for a bistable switch in PKA activity. After the removal of 5-HT, the PKA activity either returns to its basal level (reversible switch) or remains at a high level (irreversible switch). Such an irreversible switch might be a mechanism that contributes to the persistence of LTM. The classification diagrams also identify parameters and processes that might be manipulated, perhaps pharmacologically, to enhance the induction of memory. Rational drug design, to affect complex processes such as memory formation, can benefit from this type of analysis.
Resumo:
An important goal in the study of long-term memory is to understand the signals that induce and maintain the underlying neural alterations. In Aplysia, long-term sensitization of defensive reflexes has been examined in depth as a simple model of memory. Extensive studies of sensory neurons (SNs) in Aplysia have led to a cellular and molecular model of long-term memory that has greatly influenced memory research. According to this model, induction of long-term memory in Aplysia depends upon serotonin (5-HT) release and subsequent activation of the cAMP-PKA pathway in SNs. The evidence supporting this model mainly came from studies of long-term synaptic facilitation (LTF) using dissociated (and therefore axotomized) cells growing in culture. However, studies in more intact preparations have produced complex and discrepant results. Because these SNs function as nociceptors, and display similar alterations (long-term hyperexcitability [LTH], LTF, and growth) in models of memory and nerve injury, this study examined the roles of 5-HT and the cAMP-PKA pathway in the induction and expression of long-term, injury-related LTH and LTF in Aplysia SNs. ^ The results presented here suggest that 5-HT is not a primary signal for inducing LTH (and perhaps LTF) in Aplysia SNs. Prolonged treatment with 5-HT failed to induce LTH of Aplysia SNs in either ganglia or dissociated-cell preparations. Treatment with a 5-HT antagonist, methiothepin, during noxious nerve stimulation failed to reduce 24 hr LTH. Furthermore, while 5-HT can induce LTF of SN synapses, this LTF appears to be an indirect effect of 5-HT on other cells. When neural activity was suppressed by elevating divalent cations or by using tetrodotoxin (TTX), 5-HT failed to induce LTF. Unlike LTF, LTH of the SNs could not be produced, even when 5-HT treatment occurred in normal artificial sea water (ASW), suggesting that LTH and LTF are likely to depend on different signals for induction. However, methiothepin reduced the later expression of LTH induced by nerve stimulation, suggesting that 5-HT contributes to the maintenance of LTH in Aplysia SNs.n of somata from the ganglion (which axotomizes SNs) or crushing peripheral n. ^ In summary, this study found that 5-HT and the cAMP-PKA pathway are not involved in the induction of long-term, injury-related LTH of Aplysia SNs, but persistent release of 5-HT and persistent PKA activity contribute to the maintenance of LTH induced by injury. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^
Resumo:
The passage of the Adoptions and Safe Families Act of 1997, with its focus on child safety and concurrent planning, has presented family preservation workers with new challenges and new opportunities. Twenty volunteers from a large comprehensive social service agency were interviewed to determine their experiences with two models of family preservation—Multisystemic Therapy (MST) and Traditional Family Preservation Service (TFPS) or practice as usual. Workers from both programs were able to articulate values consistent with family preservation as important strengths of the programs— keeping families together and empowering families for example. Information from referring agencies was described as variable and not especially useful when working with seriously troubled families, especially as it related to risk and child safety. Both groups indicated that the jargon of family preservation had permeated their agencies, and that working with other agencies was at times a challenge, though for different reasons. Finally, despite some reservations about the effectiveness of short-term treatment with families that face serious challenges, both groups of workers were generally satisfied with family preservation as an approach to practice.