Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

TYPE I INSULIN-LIKE GROWTH FACTOR RECEPTOR TYROSINE KINASE AS A MOLECULAR TARGET IN MANTLE CELL LYMPHOMA

Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is an aggressive B-cell lymphoid malignancy representing 5-10% of all non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas. It is distinguished by the t(11;14)(q13;q32) chromosomal translocation that juxtaposes the proto-oncogene CCND1, which encodes cyclin D1 at 11q13 to the IgH gene at 14q32. MCL patients represent about 6% of all new cases of Non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas per year or about 3,500 new cases per year. MCL occurs more frequently in older adults – the average age at diagnosis is the mid-60s with a male-to-female ratio of 2-3:1. It is typically characterized by the proliferation of neoplastic B-lymphocytes in the mantle zone of the lymph node follicle that have a prominent inclination to disseminate to other lymphoid tissues, bone marrow, peripheral blood and other organs. MCL patients have a poor prognosis because they develop resistance/relapse to current non-specific therapeutic regimens. It is of note that the exact molecular mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of MCL are not completely known. It is reasonable to anticipate that better characterization of these mechanisms could lead to the development of specific and likely more effective therapeutics to treat this aggressive disease. The type I insulin-like growth factor receptor (IGF-IR) is thought to be a key player in several different solid malignancies such as those of the prostate, breast, lung, ovary, skin and soft tissue. In addition, recent studies in our lab showed evidence to support a pathogenic role of IGF-IR in some types of T-cell lymphomas and chronic myeloid leukemia. Constitutively active IGF-IR induces its oncogenic effects through the inhibition of apoptosis and induction of transformation, metastasis, and angiogenesis. Previous studies have shown that signaling through IGF-IR leads to the vi activation of multiple signaling transduction pathways mediated by the receptor-associated tyrosine kinase domain. These pathways include PI3K/Akt, MAP kinase, and Jak/Stat. In the present study, we tested the possible role of IGF-IR in MCL. Our results demonstrate that IGF-IR is over-expressed in mantle cell lymphoma cell lines compared with normal peripheral blood B- lymphocytes. Furthermore, inhibition of IGF-IR by the cyclolignan picropodophyllin (PPP) decreased cell viability and cell proliferation in addition to induction of apoptosis and G2/M cell cycle arrest. Screening of downstream oncogenes and apoptotic proteins that are involved in both IGF-IR and MCL signaling after treatment with PPP or IGF-IR siRNA showed significant alterations that are consistent with the cellular changes observed after PPP treatment. Therefore, our findings suggest that IGF-IR signaling contributes to the survival of MCL and thus may prove to be a legitimate therapeutic target in the future.

Physician perceptions of risk regarding mood disorders and pharmacological management during pregnancy: What is current practice?

Mood disorders are the most common form of mental illness and one of the leading causes of morbidity worldwide. Major depressive disorder and bipolar disorder have a lifetime prevalence of 16.2% and 4.4%, respectively. Women comprise a substantial proportion of this population, and an estimated 500,000 pregnancies each year involve women with a psychiatric condition. Management with psychotropic medications is considered standard of care for most patients with mood disorders. However, many of these medications are known human teratogens. Because pregnant women with mood disorders face a high risk of relapse if unmanaged, the obstetrician faces a unique challenge in providing the best care to both mother and baby. It has been suggested that many obstetricians overestimate the teratogenic risks associated with psychotropic medications, while concurrently underestimating the risks associated with unmanaged mood disorders. This may be due a knowledge gap regarding the most current teratogen information, and lack of official management guidelines. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the current knowledge base of obstetricians regarding the teratogenic effects of common psychotropic medications, as wells as to capture current management practices for pregnant women with mood disorders. A total of 117 Texas obstetricians responded to a survey regarding teratogen knowledge and management practice. It was common for respondents to encounter women who disclose both having a mood disorder and taking a psychotropic medication during pregnancy. Many respondents did not utilize up-to-date drug counseling resources, and were unaware of or over-estimated the teratogenic risks of common medications used to treat mood disorders. Finally, many respondents reported wanting to refer pregnant patients with mood disorders to psychiatrists for co-management, but are reportedly restricted in doing so due to accessibility or insurance issues. This study demonstrates that there is a knowledge gap among obstetricians regarding the teratogenicity of common psychotropic medications utilized to manage a patient population they frequently encounter. Further, obstetricians have vastly different risk perceptions of these medications, resulting in various management approaches and recommendations. Future research should focus on establishing standard practice guidelines, as well as better accessibility to psychiatric services for pregnant women.

Robotic-assisted laparoscopic "salvage" rectopexy for recurrent ileoanal J-pouch prolapse.

Total restorative proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (RP/IPAA) has become the standard of care for the surgical treatment of ulcerative colitis. Despite its correlation with an excellent quality of life and favorable long-term outcomes, RP/IPAA has been associated with several complications. Prolapse of the ileoanal pouch is a rare and debilitating complication that should be considered in the differential diagnosis of pouch failure. Limited data exist regarding the prevalence and treatment of pouch prolapse. We present the case of a recurrent J-pouch prolapse treated with a novel minimally invasive "salvage" approach involving a robotic-assisted laparoscopic rectopexy with mesh.

Dietary factors in the modulation of inflammatory bowel disease activity.

CONTEXT: As patients look to complementary therapies for management of their diseases, it is important that the physician know the effectiveness and/or lack of effectiveness of a variety of dietary approaches/interventions. Although the pathogenesis of the inflammatory bowel diseases (ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease) is not fully understood, many suspect that diet and various dietary factors may play a modulating role in the disease process. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: The purpose of this article is to present some of what is known about various dietary/nutritional factors in inflammatory bowel disease, with inclusion of evidence from various studies regarding their putative effect. MedLINE was searched (1965-present) using combinations of the following search terms: diet, inflammatory bowel disease, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis. Additionally, references of the articles obtained were searched to identify further potential sources of information. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: While much information is available regarding various dietary interventions/supplements in regard to inflammatory bowel disease, the lack of controlled trials limits broad applicability. Probiotics are one of the few interventions with promising results and controlled trials. CONCLUSION: While there are many potential and promising dietary factors that may play a role in the modulation of inflammatory bowel disease, it is prudent to await further controlled studies before broad application/physician recommendation in the noted patient population.

Characteristics and experiences of past participants in the Texas Peer Assistance Program for Nurses

There are nearly 200,000 licensed practicing nurses in the state of Texas, representing one-tenth of the nations' workforce. The prevalence of substance abuse among nurses is estimated to range between six and 20 percent in this professional group.^ Since March 1987, the Texas Peer Assistance Program for Nurses (TPAPN) has offered intervention, education, support and monitoring to nurses in Texas whose practice has become impaired due to substance abuse and/or mental illness. Since then approximately 44 percent of nurses who voluntarily signed participation agreements successfully completed the program; fifty-six percent have not. One determinant of completion for those nurses identified as chemically dependent is abstinence from mood altering substances. Other helping professions report higher rates of abstinence two years following treatment.^ The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between relapse, demographics, treatment variables, work setting, "stress" indicators and support factors for nurses who participated in TPAPN. A questionnaire was mailed to 1000 randomly selected nurses who had signed agreements since 1987 and were no longer active in the program. More than 41% of the questionnaires were returned undeliverable.^ Recipients of the questionnaire were known only to TPAPN, never to the investigator. All information was received anonymously except when the participant chose to sign the questionnaire. A cover letter explaining the study and inviting participation was enclosed. Completion and return of the questionnaire was considered consent to participate.^ Findings demonstrated a significant relationship between relapse and opiates as the drug of choice for past participants in the Texas Peer Assistance Program for Nurses. Significant associations were found among factors such as control at work, support, physical complaints, job security, self-esteem and employment in this sample. Respondents shared copious written comments about their experiences in TPAPN. These data were analyzed using qualitative methods and compared with similar studies of recovering nurses. Further research with nurses whose practice has been affected by abuse of chemical and mental illness is warranted. ^

Genetic predisposition to prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (PC) is a significant economic and health burden in the U.S. and Europe but its causes are largely unknown. The most significant risk factors (after gender) are age and family history of the disease. A gene with high penetrance but low frequency on chromosome 1q, HPC 1, has been suggested to cause a proportion of the familial aggregation of PC but other more common genes, conferring less risk, are also thought to contribute to disease predisposition. We have pursued a strategy to study both types of genetic risk in PC. To identify high penetrance genes, affected men from thirteen families have been genotyped for genetic linkage analysis at six microsatellite markers spanning 45 cM of 1q24-25. Both LOD score and non-parametric statistics provide no significant support for HPC1 in this genomic region, although 3 of the families did combine to produce a LOD score of 0.9. These families will be included in a genome wide search for other PC predisposition genes as part of a multinational collaboration.^ For study of common genetic factors in PC development, leukocyte DNA samples from an unselected series of 55 patients and 67 controls have been examined for genetic differences in two other candidate genes, the androgen receptor gene, hAR, at Xq11-12, and the vitamin D receptor gene, hVDR, at 12q12-14. hAR was typed for two trinucleotide repeat length polymorphisms, (CAG)$\rm\sb{n}$ and (GGC)$\rm\sb{n},$ encoding polyglutamine and polyglycine tracts, respectively, which have been implicated in PC susceptibility. These data, combined with similarly processed patients and controls from the U.K. show no consistent association of allele length with PC risk. A novel finding, however, has been a significant association between the number of GGC repeats and the length of time between diagnosis and relapse in stage T1-T4 Caucasian patients irrespective of therapy and age of the patient. Of 49 patients who relapsed out of 108 entering the study, those with 16 or fewer GGC repeats had an average relapse-free-period of 101 (+/$-$7.7) months while for those with more than 16 repeats the period averaged 48 (+/$-$2.9) months, a difference of 2.1 fold or 4.4 years.^ The second gene, hVDR, was genotyped at two polymorphisms, a synonymous C/T substitution in exon 9 identified by differential TaqI enzymatic digestion and a variable length polyA tract in the 3$\sp\prime$ UTR. Although these polymorphisms are in strong linkage disequilibrium only the polyA region showed a possible association with PC risk. Men homozygous for alleles with fewer than 18 A's had an increased risk (OR = 3.0, p = 0.0578) compared to controls. This result is opposite to the findings of others and may either indicate off-setting random errors which together balance out to no significant overall effect or reflect more complex genetic and/or environmental associations.^ Overall, this research suggests that single gene familial predisposition may be less prominent in PC than in other cancers and that the characteristics of PC pathology may be useful in identifying the effects of common genetic factors. ^

Mechanisms of liposomal all-{\it trans\/} retinoic acid and vitamin D3 induced inhibition of cell proliferation and stimulation of apoptosis in aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

The Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma (NHLs) are neoplasms of the immune system. Currently, less than 1% of the etiology of the 22,000 newly diagnosed lymphoma cases in the U.S.A. every year is known. This disease has a significant prevalence and high mortality rate. Cell growth in lymphomas has been shown to be an important parameter in aggressive NHL when establishing prognosis, as well as an integral part in the pathophysiology of the disease process. While many aggressive B cell NHLs respond initially to chemotherapeutic regimens such as CHOP-bleo (adriamycin, vincristine and bleomycin) etc., relapse is common, and the patient is then often refractory to further salvage treatment regimens.^ To assess their potential to inhibit aggressive B cell NHLs and induce apoptosis (also referred to as programmed cell death (PCD)), it was proposed to utilize the following biological agents-liposomal all-trans retinoic acid (L-ATRA) which is a derivative of Vitamin A in liposomes and Vitamin D3. Preliminary evidence indicates that L-ATRA may inhibit cell growth in these cells and may induce PCD as well. Detailed studies were performed to understand the above phenomena by L-ATRA and Vitamin D3 in recently established NHL-B cell lines and primary cell cultures. The gene regulation involved in the case of L-ATRA was also delineated. ^

Analysis of primary Wilms tumors for WT1 RNA processing alterations

Wilms tumor (WT) is an embryonal renal tumor with a heterogeneous genetic etiology that serves as a valuable model for studying tumorigenesis. Biallelic inactivation of the tumor suppressor gene WT1, a zinc-finger transcriptional regulator located at 11p13, is critical for the development of some Wilms tumors. Interestingly, WT1 genomic analysis has demonstrated mutations in less than 20% of WT cases. This suggests either other genes play a more major role in Wilms tumorigenesis or WT1 is functionally altered by mechanisms other than DNA mutation. Previous observations in rat and in WT xenograft cell lines have suggested that abnormal WT1 RNA processing (exon 6 RNA editing and aberrant exon 2 splicing, respectively) is a potential mechanism of altering WT1 function in the absence of a WT1 DNA mutation. However, the role of this abnormal RNA processing has not previously been assessed in primary Wilms tumors. ^ To test the hypothesis that abnormal WT1 RNA processing is a mechanism of WT1alteration during tumor development, WT1 RNA from 85 primary tumors was analyzed using reverse transcription and polymerase chain reaction amplification (RT-PCR). Although no evidence for WT1 RNA editing was observed, variable levels (5% to 50%) of aberrant WT1 exon 2 splicing were detected for 11 tumors in the absence of a detectable WT1 DNA mutation. Also, alteration of normal WT1 alternative splicing, observed as RNA isoform loss, was detected in five tumors with no apparent WT1 genomic alteration, although no consistent pattern of RNA isoform loss was detected. This abnormal WT1 splicing, detected by either loss of exon 2 from some of the transcripts or loss of RNA isoforms, is statistically correlated with relapse (p = 0.005). These studies demonstrate that abnormal WT1 RNA processing is not a common mechanism of abrogating normal WT1 function in primary tumors. However, in those cases in which abnormal WTI splicing is present, these data indicate that it may serve as a useful prognostic marker for relapse in WT patients. ^