31 resultados para Cluster Analysis of Variables

em DigitalCommons@The Texas Medical Center


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Background: Despite almost 40 years of research into the etiology of Kawasaki Syndrome (KS), there is little research published on spatial and temporal clustering of KS cases. Previous analysis has found significant spatial and temporal clustering of cases, therefore cluster analyses were performed to substantiate these findings and provide insight into incident KS cases discharged from a pediatric tertiary care hospital. Identifying clusters from a single institution would allow for prospective analysis of risk factors and potential exposures for further insight into KS etiology. ^ Methods: A retrospective study was carried out to examine the epidemiology and distribution of patients presenting to Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston, Texas, with a diagnosis of Acute Febrile Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome (MCLS) upon discharge from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2009. Spatial, temporal, and space-time cluster analyses were performed using the Bernoulli model with case and control event data. ^ Results: 397 of 102,761 total patients admitted to Texas Children’s Hospital had a principal or secondary diagnosis of Acute Febrile MCLS upon over the 5 year period. Demographic data for KS cases remained consistent with known disease epidemiology. Spatial, temporal, and space-time analyses of clustering using the Bernoulli model demonstrated no statistically significant clusters. ^ Discussion: Despite previous findings of spatial-temporal clustering of KS cases, there were no significant clusters of KS cases discharged from a single institution. This implicates the need for an expanded approach to conducting spatial-temporal cluster analysis and KS surveillance given the limitations of evaluating data from a single institution.^

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Objective. The purpose of the study is to provide a holistic depiction of behavioral & environmental factors contributing to risky sexual behaviors among predominantly high school educated, low-income African Americans residing in urban areas of Houston, TX utilizing the Theory of Gender and Power, Situational/Environmental Variables Theory, and Sexual Script Theory. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted via questionnaires among 215 Houston area residents, 149 were women and 66 were male. Measures used to assess behaviors of the population included a history of homelessness, use of crack/cocaine among several other illicit drugs, the type of sexual partner, age of participant, age of most recent sex partner, whether or not participants sought health care in the last 12 months, knowledge of partner's other sexual activities, symptoms of depression, and places where partner's were met. In an effort to determine risk of sexual encounters, a risk index employing the variables used to assess condom use was created categorizing sexual encounters as unsafe or safe. Results. Variables meeting the significance level of p<.15 for the bivariate analysis of each theory were entered into a binary logistic regression analysis. The block for each theory was significant, suggesting that the grouping assignments of each variable by theory were significantly associated with unsafe sexual behaviors. Within the regression analysis, variables such as sex for drugs/money, low income, and crack use demonstrated an effect size of ≥ ± 1, indicating that these variables had a significant effect on unsafe sexual behavioral practices. Conclusions. Variables assessing behavior and environment demonstrated a significant effect when categorized by relation to designated theories.

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Objective. The purpose of the study is to provide a holistic depiction of behavioral & environmental factors contributing to risky sexual behaviors among predominantly high school educated, low-income African Americans residing in urban areas of Houston, TX utilizing the Theory of Gender and Power, Situational/Environmental Variables Theory, and Sexual Script Theory. ^ Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted via questionnaires among 215 Houston area residents, 149 were women and 66 were male. Measures used to assess behaviors of the population included a history of homelessness, use of crack/cocaine among several other illicit drugs, the type of sexual partner, age of participant, age of most recent sex partner, whether or not participants sought health care in the last 12 months, knowledge of partner's other sexual activities, symptoms of depression, and places where partner's were met. In an effort to determine risk of sexual encounters, a risk index employing the variables used to assess condom use was created categorizing sexual encounters as unsafe or safe. ^ Results. Variables meeting the significance level of p<.15 for the bivariate analysis of each theory were entered into a binary logistic regression analysis. The block for each theory was significant, suggesting that the grouping assignments of each variable by theory were significantly associated with unsafe sexual behaviors. Within the regression analysis, variables such as sex for drugs/money, low income, and crack use demonstrated an effect size of ≥±1, indicating that these variables had a significant effect on unsafe sexual behavioral practices. ^ Conclusions. Variables assessing behavior and environment demonstrated a significant effect when categorized by relation to designated theories. ^

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Attention has recently been drawn to Enterococcus faecium because of an increasing number of nosocomial infections caused by this species and its resistance to multiple antibacterial agents. However, relatively little is known about the pathogenic determinants of this organism. We have previously identified a cell-wall-anchored collagen adhesin, Acm, produced by some isolates of E. faecium, and a secreted antigen, SagA, exhibiting broad-spectrum binding to extracellular matrix proteins. Here, we analysed the draft genome of strain TX0016 for potential microbial surface components recognizing adhesive matrix molecules (MSCRAMMs). Genome-based bioinformatics identified 22 predicted cell-wall-anchored E. faecium surface proteins (Fms), of which 15 (including Acm) had characteristics typical of MSCRAMMs, including predicted folding into a modular architecture with multiple immunoglobulin-like domains. Functional characterization of one [Fms10; redesignated second collagen adhesin of E. faecium (Scm)] revealed that recombinant Scm(65) (A- and B-domains) and Scm(36) (A-domain) bound to collagen type V efficiently in a concentration-dependent manner, bound considerably less to collagen type I and fibrinogen, and differed from Acm in their binding specificities to collagen types IV and V. Results from far-UV circular dichroism measurements of recombinant Scm(36) and of Acm(37) indicated that these proteins were rich in beta-sheets, supporting our folding predictions. Whole-cell ELISA and FACS analyses unambiguously demonstrated surface expression of Scm in most E. faecium isolates. Strikingly, 11 of the 15 predicted MSCRAMMs clustered in four loci, each with a class C sortase gene; nine of these showed similarity to Enterococcus faecalis Ebp pilus subunits and also contained motifs essential for pilus assembly. Antibodies against one of the predicted major pilus proteins, Fms9 (redesignated EbpC(fm)), detected a 'ladder' pattern of high-molecular-mass protein bands in a Western blot analysis of cell surface extracts from E. faecium, suggesting that EbpC(fm) is polymerized into a pilus structure. Further analysis of the transcripts of the corresponding gene cluster indicated that fms1 (ebpA(fm)), fms5 (ebpB(fm)) and ebpC(fm) are co-transcribed, a result consistent with those for pilus-encoding gene clusters of other Gram-positive bacteria. All 15 genes occurred frequently in 30 clinically derived diverse E. faecium isolates tested. The common occurrence of MSCRAMM- and pilus-encoding genes and the presence of a second collagen-binding protein may have important implications for our understanding of this emerging pathogen.

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The purpose of this analysis of the shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs) in acute care hospitals in El Paso, Texas, was to evaluate twenty-two specific organizational and/or patient care unit (nursing unit) characteristics that effect the retention and turnover of professional nurses. Vacancy Rates were used to measure the level of the shortage in each hospital and nursing unit in the study. Vacancy Rates are a function of both RN retention and RN turnover. Seventy-three patient care units in five acute care hospitals were included in the study population.^ Fredrick Herzberg's motivational - hygiene theory was used to explain the types of characteristics or factors that can effect worker dissatisfaction. Dissatisfiers (hygiene factors) are those work place characteristics that influence workers to leave the job. The twenty-two potentially dissatisfying work place characteristics were either organizational or patient care unit specific in nature. The focus of the study was to evaluate high vacancy rates caused by both low retention of RNs and high turnover rates. Retention and turnover are a function of workers (RNs) not staying in their jobs, therefore hygiene factors were appropriate characteristics to study.^ Various multivariate analysis techniques were used to assess both the individual and combined effects of the hygiene factors on Vacancy Rates, Retention and Turnover. Results suggest that certain organizational and patient care unit characteristics are associated with and have a statistically significant effect on vacancy rates, and the retention and turnover of RNs. The type of Hospital was of particular interest in this regards. For-Profit facilities were less effected by most of the study variables than the Not-for-Profits. ^

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Any functionally important mutation is embedded in an evolutionary matrix of other mutations. Cladistic analysis, based on this, is a method of investigating gene effects using a haplotype phylogeny to define a set of tests which localize causal mutations to branches of the phylogeny. Previous implementations of cladistic analysis have not addressed the issue of analyzing data from related individuals, though in human studies, family data are usually needed to obtain unambiguous haplotypes. In this study, a method of cladistic analysis is described in which haplotype effects are parameterized in a linear model which accounts for familial correlations. The method was used to study the effect of apolipoprotein (Apo) B gene variation on total-, LDL-, and HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, and Apo B levels in 121 French families. Five polymorphisms defined Apo B haplotypes: the signal peptide Insertion/deletion, Bsp 1286I, XbaI, MspI, and EcoRI. Eleven haplotypes were found, and a haplotype phylogeny was constructed and used to define a set of tests of haplotype effects on lipid and apo B levels.^ This new method of cladistic analysis, the parametric method, found significant effects for single haplotypes for all variables. For HDL-cholesterol, 3 clusters of evolutionarily-related haplotypes affecting levels were found. Haplotype effects accounted for about 10% of the genetic variance of triglyceride and HDL-cholesterol levels. The results of the parametric method were compared to those of a method of cladistic analysis based on permutational testing. The permutational method detected fewer haplotype effects, even when modified to account for correlations within families. Simulation studies exploring these differences found evidence of systematic errors in the permutational method due to the process by which haplotype groups were selected for testing.^ The applicability of cladistic analysis to human data was shown. The parametric method is suggested as an improvement over the permutational method. This study has identified candidate haplotypes for sequence comparisons in order to locate the functional mutations in the Apo B gene which may influence plasma lipid levels. ^

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Background and purpose: Breast cancer continues to be a health problem for women, representing 28 percent of all female cancers and remaining one of the leading causes of death for women. Breast cancer incidence rates become substantial before the age of 50. After menopause, breast cancer incidence rates continue to increase with age creating a long-lasting source of concern (Harris et al., 1992). Mammography, a technique for the detection of breast tumors in their nonpalpable stage when they are most curable, has taken on considerable importance as a public health measure. The lifetime risk of breast cancer is approximately 1 in 9 and occurs over many decades. Recommendations are that screening be periodic in order to detect cancer at early stages. These recommendations, largely, are not followed. Not only are most women not getting regular mammograms, but this circumstance is particularly the case among older women where regular mammography has been proven to reduce mortality by approximately 30 percent. The purpose of this project was to increase our understanding of factors that are associated with stage of readiness to obtain subsequent mammograms. A secondary purpose of this research was to suggest further conceptual considerations toward the extension of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behavior change to repeat screening mammography. ^ Methods. A sample (n = 1,222) of women 50 years and older in a large multi-specialty clinic in Houston, Texas was surveyed by mail questionnaire regarding their previous screening experience and stage of readiness to obtain repeat screening. A computerized database, maintained on all women who undergo mammography at the clinic, was used to identify women who are eligible for the project. The major statistical technique employed to select the significant variables and to examine the man and interaction effects of independent variables on dependent variables was polychotomous stepwise, logistic regression. A prediction model for each stage of readiness definition was estimated. The expected probabilities for stage of readiness were calculated to assess the magnitude and direction of significant predictors. ^ Results. Analysis showed that both ways of defining stage of readiness for obtaining a screening mammogram were associated with specific constructs, including decisional balance and processes of the change. ^ Conclusions. The results of the present study demonstrate that the TTM appears to translate to repeat mammography screening. Findings in the current study also support finding of previous studies that suggest that stage of readiness is associated with respondent decisional balance and the processes of change. ^

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Improvements in the analysis of microarray images are critical for accurately quantifying gene expression levels. The acquisition of accurate spot intensities directly influences the results and interpretation of statistical analyses. This dissertation discusses the implementation of a novel approach to the analysis of cDNA microarray images. We use a stellar photometric model, the Moffat function, to quantify microarray spots from nylon microarray images. The inherent flexibility of the Moffat shape model makes it ideal for quantifying microarray spots. We apply our novel approach to a Wilms' tumor microarray study and compare our results with a fixed-circle segmentation approach for spot quantification. Our results suggest that different spot feature extraction methods can have an impact on the ability of statistical methods to identify differentially expressed genes. We also used the Moffat function to simulate a series of microarray images under various experimental conditions. These simulations were used to validate the performance of various statistical methods for identifying differentially expressed genes. Our simulation results indicate that tests taking into account the dependency between mean spot intensity and variance estimation, such as the smoothened t-test, can better identify differentially expressed genes, especially when the number of replicates and mean fold change are low. The analysis of the simulations also showed that overall, a rank sum test (Mann-Whitney) performed well at identifying differentially expressed genes. Previous work has suggested the strengths of nonparametric approaches for identifying differentially expressed genes. We also show that multivariate approaches, such as hierarchical and k-means cluster analysis along with principal components analysis, are only effective at classifying samples when replicate numbers and mean fold change are high. Finally, we show how our stellar shape model approach can be extended to the analysis of 2D-gel images by adapting the Moffat function to take into account the elliptical nature of spots in such images. Our results indicate that stellar shape models offer a previously unexplored approach for the quantification of 2D-gel spots. ^

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With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

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Background. Liver cancer mortality continues to be a significant factor in deaths worldwide and in the U.S., yet there remains a lack of studies on how mortality burden is impacted by racial groups or by heavy alcohol use. This study evaluated the geographic distribution of liver cancer mortality across population groups in Texas and the U.S. over a 24-year period, as well as determining whether alcohol dependence or abuse correlates with mortality rates. ^ Methods. The Spatial Scan Statistic was used to identify regions of excess liver cancer mortality in Texas counties and the U.S. from 1980 to 2003. The statistic was conducted with a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk, and all analyses used publicly available data. Alcohol abuse data by state and ethnicity were extracted from SAMHSA datasets for the study period 2000–2004. ^ Results. The results of the geographic analysis of liver cancer mortality in both Texas and the U.S. indicate that there were four and seven regions, respectively, that were identified as having statistically significant excess mortality rates with elevated relative risks ranging from 1.38–2.07 and 1.05–1.623 (p = 0.001), respectively. ^ Conclusion. This study revealed seven regions of excess mortality of liver cancer mortality across the U.S. and four regions of excess mortality in Texas between 1980–2003, as well as demonstrated a correlation between elevated liver cancer mortality rates and reporting of alcohol dependence among Hispanics and Other populations. ^

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Introduction. The HIV/AIDS disease burden disproportionately affects minority populations, specifically African Americans. While sexual risk behaviors play a role in the observed HIV burden, other factors including gender, age, socioeconomics, and barriers to healthcare access may also be contributory. The goal of this study was to determine how far down the HIV/AIDS disease process people of different ethnicities first present for healthcare. The study specifically analyzed the differences in CD4 cell counts at the initial HIV-1 diagnosis with respect to ethnicity. The study also analyzed racial differences in HIV/AIDS risk factors. ^ Methods. This is a retrospective study using data from the Adult Spectrum of HIV Disease (ASD), collected by the City of Houston Department of Health. The ASD database contains information on newly reported HIV cases in the Harris County District Hospitals between 1989 and 2000. Each patient had an initial and a follow-up report. The extracted variables of interest from the ASD data set were CD4 counts at the initial HIV diagnosis, race, gender, age at HIV diagnosis and behavioral risk factors. One-way ANOVA was used to examine differences in baseline CD4 counts at HIV diagnosis between racial/ethnic groups. Chi square was used to analyze racial differences in risk factors. ^ Results. The analyzed study sample was 4767. The study population was 47% Black, 37% White and 16% Hispanic [p<0.05]. The mean and median CD4 counts at diagnosis were 254 and 193 cells per ml, respectively. At the initial HIV diagnosis Blacks had the highest average CD4 counts (285), followed by Whites (233) and Hispanics (212) [p<0.001 ]. These statistical differences, however, were only observed with CD4 counts above 350 [p<0.001], even when adjusted for age at diagnosis and gender [p<0.05]. Looking at risk factors, Blacks were mostly affected by intravenous drug use (IVDU) and heterosexuality, whereas Whites and Hispanics were more affected by male homosexuality [ p<0.05]. ^ Conclusion. (1) There were statistical differences in CD4 counts with respect to ethnicity, but these differences only existed for CD4 counts above 350. These differences however do not appear to have clinical significance. Antithetically, Blacks had the highest CD4 counts followed by Whites and Hispanics. (2) 50% of this study group clinically had AIDS at their initial HIV diagnosis (median=193), irrespective of ethnicity. It was not clear from data analysis if these observations were due to failure of early HIV surveillance, HIV testing policies or healthcare access. More studies need to be done to address this question. (3) Homosexuality and bisexuality were the biggest risk factors for Whites and Hispanics, whereas for Blacks were mostly affected by heterosexuality and IVDU, implying a need for different public health intervention strategies for these racial groups. ^

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Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease of great public health importance, particularly to institutions that provide health care to large numbers of TB patients such as Parkland Hospital in Dallas, TX. The purpose of this retrospective chart review was to analyze differences in TB positive and TB negative patients to better understand whether or not there were variables that could be utilized to develop a predictive model for use in the emergency department to reduce the overall number of suspected TB patients being sent to respiratory isolation for TB testing. This study included patients who presented to the Parkland Hospital emergency department between November 2006 and December 2007 and were isolated and tested for TB. Outcome of TB was defined as a positive sputum AFB test or a positive M. tuberculosis culture result. Data were collected utilizing the UT Southwestern Medical Center computerized database OACIS and included demographic information, TB risk factors, physical symptoms, and clinical results. Only two variables were significantly (P<0.05) related to TB outcome: dyspnea (shortness of breath) (P<0.001) and abnormal x-ray (P<0.001). Marginally significant variables included hemoptysis (P=0.06), weight loss (P=0.11), night sweats (P=0.20), history of homelessness or incarceration (P=0.15), and history of positive skin PPD (P=0.19). Using a combination of significant and marginally significant variables, a predictive model was designed which demonstrated a specificity of 24% and a sensitivity of 70%. In conclusion, a predictive model for TB outcome based on patients who presented to the Parkland Hospital emergency department between November 2006 and December 2007 was unsuccessful given the limited number of variables that differed significantly between TB positive and TB negative patients. It is suggested that a future prospective cohort study should be implemented to collect data on TB positive and TB negative patients. It may be possible that a more thorough prospective collection of data may lead to clearer comparisons between TB positive and TB negative patients and ultimately to the design of a more sensitive predictive model for TB outcome. ^

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As schools are pressured to perform on academics and standardized examinations, schools are reluctant to dedicate increased time to physical activity. After-school exercise and health programs may provide an opportunity to engage in more physical activity without taking time away from coursework during the day. The current study is a secondary data analysis of data from a randomized trial of a 10-week after-school program (six schools, n = 903) that implemented an exercise component based on the CATCH physical activity component and health modules based on the culturally-tailored Bienestar health education program. Outcome variables included BMI and aerobic capacity, health knowledge and healthy food intentions as assessed through path analysis techniques. Both the baseline model (χ2 (df = 8) = 16.90, p = .031; RMSEA = .035 (90% CI of .010–.058), NNFI = 0.983 and the CFI = 0.995) and the model incorporating intervention participation proved to be a good fit to the data (χ2 (df = 10) = 11.59, p = .314. RMSEA = .013 (90% CI of .010–.039); NNFI = 0.996 and CFI = 0.999). Experimental group participation was not predictive of changes in health knowledge, intentions to eat healthy foods or changes in Body Mass Index, but it was associated with increased aerobic capacity, β = .067, p < .05. School characteristics including SES and Language proficiency proved to be significantly associated with changes in knowledge and physical indicators. Further effects of school level variables on intervention outcomes are recommended so that tailored interventions can be developed aimed at the specific characteristics of each participating school. ^

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Introduction. Despite the ban of lead-containing gasoline and paint, childhood lead poisoning remains a public health issue. Furthermore, a Medicaid-eligible child is 8 times more likely to have an elevated blood lead level (EBLL) than a non-Medicaid child, which is the primary reason for the early detection lead screening mandate for ages 12 and 24 months among the Medicaid population. Based on field observations, there was evidence that suggested a screening compliance issue. Objective. The purpose of this study was to analyze blood lead screening compliance in previously lead poisoned Medicaid children and test for an association between timely lead screening and timely childhood immunizations. The mean months between follow-up tests were also examined for a significant difference between the non-compliant and compliant lead screened children. Methods. Access to the surveillance data of all childhood lead poisoned cases in Bexar County was granted by the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District. A database was constructed and analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression methods and non-parametric tests. Lead screening at 12 months of age was analyzed separately from lead screening at 24 months. The small portion of the population who were also related were included in one analysis and removed from a second analysis to check for significance. Gender, ethnicity, age of home, and having a sibling with an EBLL were ruled out as confounders for the association tests but ethnicity and age of home were adjusted in the nonparametric tests. Results. There was a strong significant association between lead screening compliance at 12 months and childhood immunization compliance, with or without including related children (p<0.00). However, there was no significant association between the two variables at the age of 24 months. Furthermore, there was no significant difference between the median of the mean months of follow-up blood tests among the non-compliant and compliant lead screened population for at the 12 month screening group but there was a significant difference at the 24 month screening group (p<0.01). Discussion. Descriptive statistics showed that 61% and 56% of the previously lead poisoned Medicaid population did not receive their 12 and 24 month mandated lead screening on time, respectively. This suggests that their elevated blood lead level may have been diagnosed earlier in their childhood. Furthermore, a child who is compliant with their lead screening at 12 months of age is 2.36 times more likely to also receive their childhood immunizations on time compared to a child who was not compliant with their 12 month screening. Even though there was no statistical significant association found for the 24 month group, the public health significance of a screening compliance issue is no less important. The Texas Medicaid program needs to enforce lead screening compliance because it is evident that there has been no monitoring system in place. Further recommendations include a need for an increased focus on parental education and the importance of taking their children for wellness exams on time.^

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Objective. The goal of this study is to characterize the current workforce of CIHs, the lengths of professional practice careers of the past and current CIHs.^ Methods. This is a secondary data analysis of data compiled from all of the nearly 50 annual roster listings of the American Board of Industrial Hygiene (ABIH) for Certified Industrial Hygienists active in each year since 1960. Survival analysis was performed as a technique to measure the primary outcome of interest. The technique which was involved in this study was the Kaplan-Meier method for estimating the survival function.^ Study subjects: The population to be studied is all Certified Industrial Hygienists (CIHs). A CIH is defined by the ABIH as an individual who has achieved the minimum requirements for education, working experience and through examination, has demonstrated a minimum level of knowledge and competency in the prevention of occupational illnesses. ^ Results. A Cox-proportional hazards model analysis was performed by different start-time cohorts of CIHs. In this model we chose cohort 1 as the reference cohort. The estimated relative risk of the event (defined as retirement, or absent from 5 consecutive years of listing) occurred for CIHs for cohorts 2,3,4,5 relative to cohort 1 is 0.385, 0.214, 0.234, 0.299 relatively. The result show that cohort 2 (CIHs issued from 1970-1980) has the lowest hazard ratio which indicates the lowest retirement rate.^ Conclusion. The manpower of CIHs (still actively practicing up to the end of 2009) increased tremendously starting in 1980 and grew into a plateau in recent decades. This indicates that the supply and demand of the profession may have reached equilibrium. More demographic information and variables are needed to actually predict the future number of CIHs needed. ^