A comparison of two statistical methods for analysis of day of the week effect on births from 2005-2007 in Harris County of Texas

The pattern of the births during the week has been reported by many studies. The births occurred in weekends are found consistently less then births occurred in weekdays. This study employed two statistical methods, two-way ANOVA and two-way Friedman's test to analyse the daily variations in amount of births of 222,735 births from 2005-2007 in Harris County, Texas. The two methods were compared on their assumptions, procedures and results. Both of the tests showed a significant result which indicated that the births through the week are not uniformly distributed. The result of multiple comparison demonstrated the births occurring on weekends were significantly different than the births occurring on weekdays with least amount on Sundays.^

Evaluation of the T-SPOT(RTM).TB test in the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection in HIV-infected children in Uganda

Background. About a third of the world’s population is infected with tuberculosis (TB) with sub-Saharan Africa being the worst hit. Uganda is ranked 16th among the countries with the biggest TB burden. The burden in children however has not been determined. The burden of TB has been worsened by the advent of HIV and TB is the leading cause of mortality in HIV infected individuals. Development of TB disease can be prevented if TB is diagnosed during its latent stage and treated with isoniazid. For over a century, latent TB infection (LTBI) was diagnosed using the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST). New interferon gamma release assays (IGRA) have been approved by FDA for the diagnosis of LTBI and adult studies have shown that IGRAs are superior to the TST but there have been few studies in children especially in areas of high TB and HIV endemicity. ^ Objective. The objective of this study was to examine whether the IGRAs had a role in LTBI diagnosis in HIV infected children in Uganda. ^ Methods. Three hundred and eighty one (381) children were recruited at the Baylor College of Medicine-Bristol Meyers Squibb Children’s Clinical Center of Excellence at Mulago Hospital, Kampala, Uganda between March and August 2010. All the children were subjected to a TST and T-SPOT ®.TB test which was the IGRA chosen for this study. Sputum examination and chest x-rays were also done to rule out active TB. ^ Results. There was no statistically significant difference between the tests. The agreement between the two assays was 95.9% and the kappa statistic was 0.7 (95% CI: 0.55–0.85, p-value<0.05) indicating a substantial or good agreement. The TST was associated with older age and higher weight for age z-scores but the T-SPOT®. TB was not. Both tests were associated with history of taking anti-retroviral therapy (ART). ^ Conclusion. Before promoting use of IGRAs in children living in HIV/TB endemic countries, more research needs to be done. ^

Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^