HIV prevalence and contextual risk-factors among injection drug users in Harris County, Texas

Injection drug use is the third most frequent risk factor for new HIV infections in the United States. A dual mode of exposure: unsafe drug using practices and risky sexual behaviors underlies injection drug users' (IDUs) risk for HIV infection. This research study aims to characterize patterns of drug use and sexual behaviors and to examine the social contexts associated with risk behaviors among a sample of injection drug users. ^ This cross-sectional study includes 523 eligible injection drug users from Houston, Texas, recruited into the 2009 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance project. Three separate set of analyses were carried out. First, using latent class analysis (LCA) and maximum likelihood we identified classes of behavior describing levels of HIV risk, from nine drug and sexual behaviors. Second, eight separate multivariable regression models were built to examine the odds of reporting a given risk behavior. We constructed the most parsimonious multivariable model using a manual backward stepwise process. Third, we examined whether HIV serostatus knowledge (self-reported positive, negative, or unknown serostatus) is associated with drug use and sexual HIV risk behaviors. ^ Participants were mostly male, older, and non-Hispanic Black. Forty-two percent of our sample had behaviors putting them at high risk, 25% at moderate risk, and 33% at low risk for HIV infection. Individuals in the High-risk group had the highest probability of risky behaviors, categorized as almost always sharing needles (0.93), seldom using condoms (0.10), reporting recent exchange sex partners (0.90), and practicing anal sex (0.34). We observed that unsafe injecting practices were associated with high risk sexual behaviors. IDUs who shared needles had higher odds of having anal sex (OR=2.89, 95%CI: 1.69-4.92) and unprotected sex (OR=2.66, 95%CI: 1.38-5.10) at last sex. Additionally, homelessness was associated with needle sharing (OR=2.24, 95% CI: 1.34-3.76) and cocaine use was associated with multiple sex partners (OR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.07-3.11). Furthermore, twenty-one percent of the sample was unaware of their HIV serostatus. The three groups were not different from each other in terms of drug-use behaviors: always using a new sterile needle, or in sharing needles or drug preparation equipment. However, IDUs unaware of their HIV serostatus were 33% more likely to report having more than three sexual partners in the past 12 months; 45% more likely to report to have unprotected sex and 85% more likely to use drug and or alcohol during or before at last sex compared to HIV-positive IDUs. ^ This analysis underscores the merit of LCA approach to empirically categorize injection drug users into distinct classes and identify their risk pattern using multiple indicators and our results show considerable overlap of high risk sexual and drug use behaviors among the high-risk class members. The observed clustering pattern of drug and sexual risk behavior among this population confirms that injection drug users do not represent a homogeneous population in terms of HIV risk. These findings will help develop tailored prevention programs.^

Identification and phenotypic characterization of a second collagen adhesin, Scm, and genome-based identification and analysis of 13 other predicted MSCRAMMs, including four distinct pilus loci, in Enterococcus faecium.

Attention has recently been drawn to Enterococcus faecium because of an increasing number of nosocomial infections caused by this species and its resistance to multiple antibacterial agents. However, relatively little is known about the pathogenic determinants of this organism. We have previously identified a cell-wall-anchored collagen adhesin, Acm, produced by some isolates of E. faecium, and a secreted antigen, SagA, exhibiting broad-spectrum binding to extracellular matrix proteins. Here, we analysed the draft genome of strain TX0016 for potential microbial surface components recognizing adhesive matrix molecules (MSCRAMMs). Genome-based bioinformatics identified 22 predicted cell-wall-anchored E. faecium surface proteins (Fms), of which 15 (including Acm) had characteristics typical of MSCRAMMs, including predicted folding into a modular architecture with multiple immunoglobulin-like domains. Functional characterization of one [Fms10; redesignated second collagen adhesin of E. faecium (Scm)] revealed that recombinant Scm(65) (A- and B-domains) and Scm(36) (A-domain) bound to collagen type V efficiently in a concentration-dependent manner, bound considerably less to collagen type I and fibrinogen, and differed from Acm in their binding specificities to collagen types IV and V. Results from far-UV circular dichroism measurements of recombinant Scm(36) and of Acm(37) indicated that these proteins were rich in beta-sheets, supporting our folding predictions. Whole-cell ELISA and FACS analyses unambiguously demonstrated surface expression of Scm in most E. faecium isolates. Strikingly, 11 of the 15 predicted MSCRAMMs clustered in four loci, each with a class C sortase gene; nine of these showed similarity to Enterococcus faecalis Ebp pilus subunits and also contained motifs essential for pilus assembly. Antibodies against one of the predicted major pilus proteins, Fms9 (redesignated EbpC(fm)), detected a 'ladder' pattern of high-molecular-mass protein bands in a Western blot analysis of cell surface extracts from E. faecium, suggesting that EbpC(fm) is polymerized into a pilus structure. Further analysis of the transcripts of the corresponding gene cluster indicated that fms1 (ebpA(fm)), fms5 (ebpB(fm)) and ebpC(fm) are co-transcribed, a result consistent with those for pilus-encoding gene clusters of other Gram-positive bacteria. All 15 genes occurred frequently in 30 clinically derived diverse E. faecium isolates tested. The common occurrence of MSCRAMM- and pilus-encoding genes and the presence of a second collagen-binding protein may have important implications for our understanding of this emerging pathogen.

Phenotypic and genotypic analysis of mouse hepatitis virus (JHM) complementation group A temperature-sensitive mutants

Temperature sensitive (ts) mutant viruses have helped elucidate replication processes in many viral systems. Several panels of replication-defective ts mutants in which viral RNA synthesis is abolished at the nonpermissive temperature (RNA$\sp{-})$ have been isolated for Mouse Hepatitis Virus, MHV (Robb et al., 1979; Koolen et al., 1983; Martin et al., 1988; Schaad et al., 1990). However, no one had investigated genetic or phenotypic relationships between these different mutant panels. In order to determine how the panel of MHV-JHM RNA$\sp{-}$ ts mutants (Robb et al., 1979) were genetically related to other described MHV RNA$\sp{-}$ ts mutants, the MHV-JHM mutants were tested for complementation with representatives from two different sets of MHV-A59 ts mutants (Koolen et al., 1983; Schaad et al., 1990). The three ts mutant panels together were found to comprise eight genetically distinct complementation groups. Of these eight complementation groups, three complementation classes are unique to their particular mutant panel; genetically equivalent mutants were not observed within the other two mutant panels. Two complementation groups were common to all three mutant panels. The three remaining complementation groups overlapped two of the three mutant sets. Mutants MHV-JHM tsA204 and MHV-A59 ts261 were shown to be within one of these overlapping complementation groups. The phenotype of the MHV-JHM mutants within this complementation class has been previously characterized (Leibowitz et al., 1982; Leibowitz et al, 1990). When these mutants were grown at the permissive temperature, then shifted up to the nonpermissive temperature at the start of RNA synthesis, genome-length RNA and leader RNA fragments accumulated, but no subgenomic mRNA was synthesized. MHV-A59 ts261 produced leader RNA fragments identical to those observed with MHV-JHM tsA204. Thus, these two MHV RNA$\sp{-}$ ts mutants that were genetically equivalent by complementation testing were phenotypically similar as well. Recombination frequencies obtained from crosses of MHV-A59 ts261 with several of the gene 1 MHV-A59 mutants indicated that the causal mutation(s) of MHV-A59 ts261 was located near the overlapping junction of ORF1a and ORF1b, in the 3$\sp\prime$ end of ORF1a, or the 5$\sp\prime$ end of ORF1b. Sequence analysis of this junction and 1400 nucleotides into the 5$\sp\prime$ end of ORF1b of MHV-A59 ts261 revealed one nucleotide change from the wildtype MHV-A59. This substitution at nucleotide 13,598 (A to G) was a silent mutation in the ORF1a reading frame, but resulted in an amino acid change in ORF1b gene product (I to V). This amino acid change would be expressed only in the readthrough translation product produced upon successful ribosome frameshifting. A revertant of MHV-A59 ts261 (R2) also retained this guanidine residue, but had a second substitution at nucleotide 14,475 in ORF1b. This mutation results in the substitution of valine for an isoleucine.^ The data presented here suggest that the mutation in MHV-A59 ts261 (nucleotide 13,598) would be responsible for the MHV-JHM complementation group A phenotype. A second-site reversion at nucleotide 14,475 may correct this defect in the revertant. Sequencing of gene 1 immediately upstream of nucleotide 13,296 and downstream of nucleotide 15,010 must be conducted to test this hypothesis. ^

Molecular analysis of the human $\gamma$-chain T cell receptor genes

In our studies we have focused on the issue of variability and diversity of the $\gamma$ (or $\delta)$ chain T cell receptor (TCR) genes by studying cDNA transcripts in peripheral blood mononuclear cells or $\gamma\delta$ TCR+ T cell clones. The significance of these studies lies in the better understanding of the molecular biology of the $\gamma\delta$ T cell receptor as well as in answering the question whether certain molecular forms predominate in $\gamma\delta$ T cells exhibiting specific immunologic functions. We establish that certain $\gamma$-chain TCR genes exhibit particular patterns of rearrangements in cDNA transcripts in normal individuals. V$\gamma$I subgroup were shown to preferentially rearrange to J$\gamma$2C$\gamma$2 gene segments. These preferential VJC rearrangements, may have implications regarding the potential for diversity and polymorphism of the $\gamma$-chain TCR gene. In addition, the preferential association of V$\gamma$I genes with J$\gamma$2C$\gamma$2, which encode a non-disulfide-linked $\gamma\delta$ TCR, suggests that $\gamma$ chains utilizing V$\gamma$I are predominantly expressed as non-disulfide-linked $\gamma\delta$ TCR heterodimers. The implications of this type of expression remain to be determined. We identified two alternative splicing events of the $\gamma$-chain TCR genes occurring in high frequency in all the normal individuals examined. These events may suggest additional mechanisms of regulation and control as well as diversification of $\gamma\delta$ TCR gene expression. The question whether particular forms of $\gamma$ or $\delta$-chain TCR genes are involved in HLA Class I recognition by specific $\gamma\delta$ cytotoxic T cell clones was addressed. Our results indicated that the T cell clones expressed identical $\gamma$ but distinct $\delta$-chains suggesting that the specificity for recognition of HLA-A2 or HLA-A3 may be conferred by the $\delta$-chain TCR. The issue of the degree of diversity and polymorphism of the $\delta$-chain TCR genes in a patient with a primary immunodeficiency (Omenn's syndrome) was addressed. A limited pattern of rearrangements in peripheral blood transcripts was found, suggesting that a limited $\gamma\delta$ TCR repertoire may be expressed in this particular primary immunodeficiency syndrome. Overall, our findings suggest that $\delta$-chain TCR genes exhibit the potential for significant diversity and that there are certain preferential patterns of expression that may be associated with particular immunologic functions. ^

STUDIES ON THE CLASS I GLYCOPROTEINS OF THE MURINE MAJOR HISTOCOMPATIBILITY COMPLEX (TRANSPLANTATION ANTIGEN, LYMPHOCYTE, CELL SURFACE MOLECULE)

A series of studies were undertaken to analyze and compare various aspects of murine class I glycoproteins. An initial area of investigation characterized the Qa-1 alloantigens using two-dimensional gel electrophoresis. Analysis of the products of the Qa-1('b), Qa-1('c) and Qa-1('d) alleles indicated that these were distinct molecules as determined by their lack of comigration upon comparative two-dimensional gel analysis. The importance of asparagine-linked glycosylation in the cell surface expression of class I molecules was also examined. These studies employed tunicamycin, an inhibitor of N-linked glycosylation. Tunicamycin treatment of activated T lymphocytes diminished the surface expression of Qa-1 to undetectable levels; the levels of other class I molecules exhibited little or no decrease. These results indicated that N-linked glycosylation has a differential importance in the cell surface expression of various class I molecules. The molecular weight diversity of class I molecules was also investigated. Molecular weight determination of both the fully glycosylated and unglycosylated forms of H-2 and Qa/Tla region encoded molecules established that there is a significant variation in the sizes of these forms of various class I molecules. The most significant difference ((TURN)9,000 daltons) exists between the unglycosylated forms of H-2K('b) and Qa-2, suggesting that the structural organization of these two molecules may be very different. A comparative two-dimensional gel analysis of various class I glycoproteins isolated from resting and activated T and B lymphocytes indicated that class I molecules expressed on activated T cells exhibited an isoelectrophoretic pattern that was distinct from the isoelectrophoretic pattern of class I molecules expessed on the other cell populations. This difference was attributed to a lower sialic acid content of the molecules expressed on activated T cells. Analysis of cell homogenates determined that activated T cells contained a higher level of endogenous neuraminidase activity than was detected in the other populations, suggesting that this may be the basis of the lower sialic acid content. The relationship of the Qa-4 and Qa-2 alloantigens was also examined. It was established that upon mitogen activation, the expression of Qa-4 was greatly decreased, whereas Qa-2 expression was not decreased. However, an anti-Qa-2 monoclonal antibody blocked the binding of an anti-Qa-4 monoclonal antibody to resting cells. These studies established that Qa-4 is a determinant restricted to resting cells, which is closely associated on the surface with the Qa-2 molecule. ^

Tolerance of allografts across MHC barriers by allochimeric class I MHC proteins

Class I MHC proteins have been shown to induce accelerated rejection or prolong survival of allografts in various experimental models. These immunological effects have been attributed to the highly polymorphic alpha helical regions of the extracellular portions of the class I MHC molecule. The present experiments were designed to elucidate the immunomodulatory effects of these polymorphic regions and delineate the mechanisms involved. Soluble allochimeric class I MHC proteins were produced by substituting the PVG class I MHC RT1.Ac amino acid residues within the a 1 helical region with those of the donor BN ( a 1hn-RT1.Ac), the a 2 helical region of BN ( a 2hn-RT1.Ac), and both the a 1 and a 2 helical regions (RT1.An). The class I MHC proteins were produced in an E. coli protein expression system. The a 2hn-RT1.Ac and RT1.An proteins, when administered subcutaneously into PVG hosts 7 days prior to transplantation, resulted in accelerated rejection of BN cardiac allografts. The a 1hn-RT1.Ac construct did not demonstrate such immunogenic effects. Intra-portal administration of a 1hn-RT1.Ac or RT1.An, in combination with perioperative CsA, induced tolerance to BN cardiac allografts. The a 1hn-RT1.Ac protein was able to induce tolerance in a larger majority of the PVG recipients and at a lower dose of protein when compared to the RT1.An protein. RT1.An administered orally to PVG recipients also induced long term survival of cardiac allografts. In vitro analysis revealed that lymphocytes from tolerant hosts were hyporesponsive to donor splenocytes, but responsive to 3rd party splenocytes. Evaluation of T cell cytokine expression patterns revealed that rejector PVG hosts displayed a Type I T-cell response when re-challenged with donor splenocytes, in contrast to tolerant animals that displayed a Type II T-cell response. FACS analysis of the T cells revealed that the ratio of CD4 to CD8 cells was 3:1 and was consistent in the groups tested suggesting a complex interaction between the subsets of T cells, yielding the observed results. Histologic analysis of the cardiac allografts revealed that tolerant PVG hosts maintained BN cardiac allografts without any evidence of acute or chronic rejection after 300 days post transplant. This body of work has demonstrated that the use of soluble donor/recipient allochimeric class I MHC proteins with a short peri-operative course of CsA resulted in transplant tolerance. This treatment regimen proffers a clinically relevant approach to the induction of tolerance across MHC barriers. ^

Identification and analysis of novel mitotic inhibitors of the Caenorhabditis elegans Aurora B kinase

Proper execution of mitosis requires the accurate segregation of replicated DNA into each daughter cell. The highly conserved mitotic kinase AIR-2/Aurora B is a dynamic protein that interacts with subsets of cofactors and substrates to coordinate chromosome segregation and cytokinesis in Caenorhabdiris elegans. To identify components of the AIR-2 regulatory pathway, a genome-wide RNAi-based screen for suppressors of air-2 temperature-sensitive mutant lethality was conducted. Here, I present evidence that two classes of suppressors identified in this screen are bona fide regulators of the AIR-2 kinase. The strongest suppressor cdc-48.3, encodes an Afg2/Spaf-related Cdc48-like AAA+ ATPase that regulates AIR-2 kinase activity and stability during C. elegans embryogenesis. Loss of CDC-48.3 suppresses the lethality of air-2 mutant embryos, marked by the restoration of the dynamic behavior of AIR-2 and rescue of chromosome segregation and cytokinesis defects. Loss of CDC-48.3 leads to mitotic delays and abnormal accumulation of AIR-2 during late telophase/mitotic exit. In addition, AIR-2 kinase activity is significantly upregulated from metaphase through mitotic exit in CDC-48.3 depleted embryos. Inhibition of the AIR-2 kinase is dependent on (1) a direct physical interaction between CDC-48.3 and AIR-2, and (2) CDC-48.3 ATPase activity. Importantly, the increase in AIR-2 kinase activity does not correlate with the stabilization of AIR-2 in late mitosis. Hence, CDC-48.3 is a bi-functional inhibitor of AIR-2 that is likely to act via distinct mechanisms. The second class of suppressors consists of psy-2/smk-1 and pph-4.1, which encode two components of the conserved PP4 phosphatase complex that is essential for spindle assembly, chromosome segregation, and overall mitotic progression. AIR-2 and its substrates are likely to be targets of this complex since mitotic AIR-2 kinase activity is significantly increased during mitosis when either PSY-2/SMK-1 or PPH-4.l is depleted. Altogether, this study demonstrates that during the C. elegans embryonic cell cycle, regulators including the CDC-48.3 ATPase and PP4 phosphatase complex interact with and control the kinase activity, targeting behavior and protein stability of the Aurora B kinase to ensure accurate and timely progression of mitosis. ^

A dose-response analysis of a school-based nutrition intervention in middle school children

Childhood obesity in the US has reached epidemic proportions. Minority children are affected the most by this epidemic. Although there is no clear relationship between obesity and fruits and vegetables consumption, studies suggest that eating fruits and vegetables could be helpful in preventing childhood obesity. A few school-based interventions targeting youth have been effective at increasing fruits and vegetables intake.^ In Austin, Texas, the Sustainable Food Center delivered the Sprouting Healthy Kids (SHK) program that targeted low socio-economic status children in four intervention middle schools. The SHK program delivered six intervention components. This school-based intervention included: a cafeteria component, in-class lessons, an after-school garden program, a field trip to a local farm, food tasting, and farmers' visits to schools. This study aimed to determine the effects of the SHK intervention in middle school students' preferences, motivation, knowledge, and self-efficacy towards fruits and vegetables intake, as well as the actual fruits and vegetables intake. The study also aimed to determine the effects of exposure to different doses of the SHK intervention on participants' fruits and vegetable intake.^ The SHK was delivered during Spring 2009. A total of 214 students completed the pre-and-posttest surveys measuring self-report fruits and vegetables intake as well as intrapersonal factors. The results showed that the school cafeteria, the food tasting, the after school program, and the farmers' visits had a positive effect on the participants' motivation, knowledge, and self-efficacy towards fruits and vegetables intake. The farmers' visits and the food tasting components increased participants' fruits and vegetables intake. Exposure to two or more intervention components increased participants' fruits and vegetables intake. The statistically significant dose-response effect size was .352, which suggests that each intervention component increased participants' fruits and vegetables consumption this amount. Certain intervention components were more effective than others. Food tasting and farmers visits increased participants fruits and vegetables intake, therefore these components should be offered in an ongoing basis. This study suggests that exposure to multiple intervention components increased behaviors and attitudes towards fruits and vegetables consumption. Findings are consistent that SHK can influence behaviors of middle school students.^

Secondary analysis of effectivness of tinidazole-containing-quadruple eradication therapy in asymptomatic H. pylori infected children in El Paso

Helicobacter pylori infection is frequently acquired during childhood. This microorganism is known to cause gastritis, and duodenal ulcer in pediatric patients, however most children remain completely asymptomatic to the infection. Currently there is no consensus in favor of treatment of H. pylori infection in asymptomatic children. The firstline of treatment for this population is triple medication therapy including two antibacterial agents and one proton pump inhibitor for a 2 week duration course. Decreased eradication rate of less than 75% has been documented with the use of this first-line therapy but novel tinidazole-containing quadruple sequential therapies seem worth investigating. None of the previous studies on such therapy has been done in the United States of America. As part of an iron deficiency anemia study in asymptomatic H. pylori infected children of El Paso, Texas, we conducted a secondary data analysis of study data collected in this trial to assess the effectiveness of this tinidazole-containing sequential quadruple therapy compared to placebo on clearing the infection. Subjects were selected from a group of asymptomatic children identified through household visits to 11,365 randomly selected dwelling units. After obtaining parental consent and child assent a total of 1,821 children 3-10 years of age were screened and 235 were positive to a novel urine immunoglobulin class G antibodies test for H. pylori infection and confirmed as infected using a 13C urea breath test, using a hydrolysis urea rate >10 μg/min as cut-off value. Out of those, 119 study subjects had a complete physical exam and baseline blood work and were randomly allocated to four groups, two of which received active H. pylori eradication medication alone or in combination with iron, while the other two received iron only or placebo only. Follow up visits to their houses were done to assess compliance and occurrence of adverse events and at 45+ days post-treatment, a second urea breath test was performed to assess their infection status. The effectiveness was primarily assessed on intent to treat basis (i.e., according to their treatment allocation), and the proportion of those who cleared their infection using a cut-off value >10 μg/min of for urea hydrolysis rate, was the primary outcome. Also we conducted analysis on a per-protocol basis and according to the cytotoxin associated gene A product of the H. pylori infection status. Also we compared the rate of adverse events across the two arms. On intent-to-treat and per-protocol analyses, 44.3% and 52.9%, respectively, of the children receiving the novel quadruple sequential eradication cleared their infection compared to 12.2% and 15.4% in the arms receiving iron or placebo only, respectively. Such differences were statistically significant (p<0.001). The study medications were well accepted and safe. In conclusion, we found in this study population, of mostly asymptomatically H. pylori infected children, living in the US along the border with Mexico, that the quadruple sequential eradication therapy cleared the infection in only half of the children receiving this treatment. Research is needed to assess the antimicrobial susceptibility of the strains of H. pylori infecting this population to formulate more effective therapies. ^

Performance tiers: Implementing comparative effectiveness analysis in the health care setting through operations research and spatial methods

This dissertation develops and tests a comparative effectiveness methodology utilizing a novel approach to the application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in health studies. The concept of performance tiers (PerT) is introduced as terminology to express a relative risk class for individuals within a peer group and the PerT calculation is implemented with operations research (DEA) and spatial algorithms. The analysis results in the discrimination of the individual data observations into a relative risk classification by the DEA-PerT methodology. The performance of two distance measures, kNN (k-nearest neighbor) and Mahalanobis, was subsequently tested to classify new entrants into the appropriate tier. The methods were applied to subject data for the 14 year old cohort in the Project HeartBeat! study.^ The concepts presented herein represent a paradigm shift in the potential for public health applications to identify and respond to individual health status. The resultant classification scheme provides descriptive, and potentially prescriptive, guidance to assess and implement treatments and strategies to improve the delivery and performance of health systems. ^

Report on the practice based culminating experience as teaching assistant for "Pathology and Public Health" class taught at University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston

Objectives. The objectives of this report were to describe current best standards in online education, class competencies, class objectives, class activities and to compare the class competencies, objectives and activities undertaken with the current best practices in online teaching and to provide a list of recommendations based on the most efficacious practices. ^ Methods. Utilizing the key words- online teaching, national standards, quality, online courses, I: (1) conducted a search on Google to find the best standard for quality online courses; the search yielded National Standards for Quality Online Teaching as the gold standard in online course quality; (2) specified class objectives and competencies as well as major activities undertaken as a part of the class. Utilizing the Southern Regional Education Board evaluation checklist for online courses, I: (1) performed an analysis comparing the class activities, objectives, and competencies with the current best standards; (2) utilized the information obtained from the analysis and class experiences to develop recommendations for the most efficacious online teaching practices. ^ Results. The class met the criteria set by the Southern Regional Education Board for evaluating online classes completely in 75%, partially in 16% and did not meet the criteria in 9% cases. The majority of the parameters in which the class did not meet the standards (4 of 5) were due to technological reasons beyond the scope of the class instructor, teaching assistant and instructional design. ^ Discussion. Successful online teaching requires awareness of technology, good communication, methods, collaboration, reflection and flexibility. Creation of an online community, engaging online learners and utilizing different learning styles and assessment methods promote learning. My report proposes that online teaching should actively engage the students and teachers with multiple interactive strategies as evidenced from current best standards of online education and my “hands-on” work experience. ^ Conclusion. The report and the ideas presented are intended to create a foundation for efficacious practice on the online teaching platform. By following many of the efficacious online practices described in the report and adding from their own experiences, online instructors and teaching assistants can contribute to effective online learning. ^

Mixture modeling for joint analysis of survival, discrete, and continuous data

Mixture modeling is commonly used to model categorical latent variables that represent subpopulations in which population membership is unknown but can be inferred from the data. In relatively recent years, the potential of finite mixture models has been applied in time-to-event data. However, the commonly used survival mixture model assumes that the effects of the covariates involved in failure times differ across latent classes, but the covariate distribution is homogeneous. The aim of this dissertation is to develop a method to examine time-to-event data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity under a framework of mixture modeling. A joint model is developed to incorporate the latent survival trajectory along with the observed information for the joint analysis of a time-to-event variable, its discrete and continuous covariates, and a latent class variable. It is assumed that the effects of covariates on survival times and the distribution of covariates vary across different latent classes. The unobservable survival trajectories are identified through estimating the probability that a subject belongs to a particular class based on observed information. We applied this method to a Hodgkin lymphoma study with long-term follow-up and observed four distinct latent classes in terms of long-term survival and distributions of prognostic factors. Our results from simulation studies and from the Hodgkin lymphoma study demonstrated the superiority of our joint model compared with the conventional survival model. This flexible inference method provides more accurate estimation and accommodates unobservable heterogeneity among individuals while taking involved interactions between covariates into consideration.^

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Functional analysis of p53 phosphorylation and a p53 hot spot mutation

The tumor suppressor p53 is a phosphoprotein which functions as a transcriptional activator. By monitoring the transcriptional activity, we studied how p53 functions is regulated in relation to cell growth and contact inhibition. When cells were arrested at G1 phase of the cell cycle by contact inhibition, we found that p53 transactivation function was suppressed. When contact inhibition was overridden by cyclin E overexpression which stimulates cell cycle progression, p53 function was restored. This observation led to the development of a cell density assay to study the regulation of p53 function during cell cycle for the functional significance of p53 phosphorylation. The murine p53 is phosphorylated at serines 7, 9, 12, 18, 37, 312 and 389. To understand the role of p53 phosphorylation, we generated p53 constructs encoding serine-to-alanine or serine-to-glutamate mutations at these codons. The transcriptional activity were measured in cells capable of contact inhibition. In low-density cycling cells, no difference in transcriptional activity was found between wild type p53 and any of the mutants. In contact-inhibited cells, however, only mutations of p53 at serine 389 resulted in altered responses to cell cycle arrest and to cyclin E overexpression. The mutant with serine-to-glutamate substitution at codon 389 retained its function in contact inhibited cells. Cyclin E overexpression in these cells induced p53 phosphorylation at serine 389. Furthermore, we showed that phosphorylation at serine 389 regulates p53 DNA binding activity. Our findings implicate that phosphorylation is an important mechanism for p53 activation.^ p53 is the most frequently mutated gene in human tumors. To study the mechanism of p53 inactivation by mutations, we carried out detailed analysis of a murine p53 mutation with an arginine-to-tryptophane substitution at codon 245. The corresponding human p53 mutation at amino acid 248 is the most frequently mutated codon in tumors. We showed that this mutant is inactive in suppressing focus formation, binding to DNA and transactivation. Structural analysis revealed that this mutant assumes the wild type protein conformation. These findings define a novel class of p53 mutations and help to understand structure-function relationship of p53. ^